That take is why the Fed was so slow to deal with inflation and why they've now overtightened. The headline number is for the trailing 12 months so inflation won't look as bad when it flares up and will look worse even after it is beaten.
M2 has had it biggest percentage decline ever. From page 232-233 of my copy of Money Mischief by Milton Friedman
The Fed has done its job. But they went too far and historically you get a recession out of this. The 3 month and 10 year yield curve inverted October of 2022. The average lead time for recession is 18 months which would put a recession first qtr of 2024, but it can be multiple years as was the case in 2008. Worrying about inflation right now doesn't mean there will be less inflation long term. It probably does mean there will be an even bigger recession and more government stimulus and more Fed easing instead. I think we will look back on this and wish the Fed stopped tightening last year.4. It takes time (measured in years, not months) for inflation to develop; it takes time for inflation to be cured
5. Unpleasant side effects of the cure are unavoidable. The United State has embarked on raising its monetary growth five times between 1960 and 1990. Each time the higher monetary growth has followed first by economic expansion and later by inflation. Each time the authorities have slowed monetary growth to stem inflation. Lower monetary growth has been followed by a recession.
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