Is China about to start a trade war?

[Matt Collins]

There is a lot of Keynesian nonsensical BS in this video, but there conclusion that China might be about to start a trade war in order to help it's domestic economy is worth considering...







https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8QwG_Y3WDW0

[Swordsmyth]

If they do they will lose.
Exporters lose trade wars, importers win them.

[Matt4Liberty]

If they do they will lose.
Exporters lose trade wars, importers win them.

How? What cards does the importer hold? The exporter controls the supply of goods. If you don't produce, you have nothing.

[Swordsmyth]

How? What cards does the importer hold? The exporter controls the supply of goods. If you don't produce, you have nothing.

The importer expends money, draining its economy, by producing things for itself it rebuilds its industries and economy, or it can simply find another source to import from.
The exporter has built its economy on selling things to the importer and can't easily replace the customer base, factories close and workers become unemployed, the money stops flowing and it can't pay for its expenses.

If the two countries are only a minor importer and a minor exporter the effect is diminished to the point that the principle falls within the margin of error and can fail.
But America is a large importer and China is an even larger exporter.
China has been allowed to have its cake and eat it too, and then eat everyone else's cake as well, if it tries to grab more it will fall out of the high chair and crack its skull on the tile floor.
And China is already losing its privileged position and many exports to other nations because it has already pushed things too far, mismanaged its centrally planned economy, and helped to destroy the economies of the countries that buy its imports.
The idea of China winning a trade war is laughable.

[Matt4Liberty]

The importer expends money, draining its economy, by producing things for itself it rebuilds its industries and economy, or it can simply find another source to import from.
The exporter has built its economy on selling things to the importer and can't easily replace the customer base, factories close and workers become unemployed, the money stops flowing and it can't pay for its expenses.

If the two countries are only a minor importer and a minor exporter the effect is diminished to the point that the principle falls within the margin of error and can fail.
But America is a large importer and China is an even larger exporter.
China has been allowed to have its cake and eat it too, and then eat everyone else's cake as well, if it tries to grab more it will fall out of the high chair and crack its skull on the tile floor.
And China is already losing its privileged position and many exports to other nations because it has already pushed things too far, mismanaged its centrally planned economy, and helped to destroy the economies of the countries that buy its imports.
The idea of China winning a trade war is laughable.

The exporter can simply cut off exports, and the importer figuratively starves. In the case of China versus the US, it took many decades to build up China into the manufacturing superpower it is. It would take many decades to get it back. Even manufactured goods that are listed as "made in the US" are composed of mostly Chinese materials at some point. If China cut off exports, these supplies dry up overnight.

I'm all for boosting my domestic production, but let's not live in a fantasy. As for switching to a new exporter, who are we going to buy from, the EU?

[WarriorLiberty]

If they do they will lose.
Exporters lose trade wars, importers win them.

How is China going to lose? Russia and China are working together. Because of the war in Ukraine.

China has learned from Russia how it steamed off the sanctions and Russia focused on its own domestic productions .
These sanctions are nothing but back firing on Euporean Economy instated.


Maybe it would have being wiser if these clowns in the US govt didn't push Ukrainian govt to start a war agaisnt Russians in East of Ukraine.

[Swordsmyth]

The exporter can simply cut off exports, and the importer figuratively starves. In the case of China versus the US, it took many decades to build up China into the manufacturing superpower it is. It would take many decades to get it back. Even manufactured goods that are listed as "made in the US" are composed of mostly Chinese materials at some point. If China cut off exports, these supplies dry up overnight.

I'm all for boosting my domestic production, but let's not live in a fantasy. As for switching to a new exporter, who are we going to buy from, the EU?

Not only can we begin to produce for ourselves again, but we can buy from other suppliers, the EU is one, but Mexico actually sells us more stuff than the Chinese do now, and there are others like India as well.
China will not be able to sell advanced goods in any quantity to 3rd world hellholes to replace our customer base.
The will beg us to buy from them again long before we capitulate to them.
And it doesn't help them at all that their economic and debt problems are even worse than ours.

[Swordsmyth]

How is China going to lose? Russia and China are working together. Because of the war in Ukraine.

China has learned from Russia how it steamed off the sanctions and Russia focused on its own domestic productions .
These sanctions are nothing but back firing on Euporean Economy instated.


Maybe it would have being wiser if these clowns in the US govt didn't push Ukrainian govt to start a war agaisnt Russians in East of Ukraine.

Russia was not an exporter of advanced goods, it's easy for Russia to sell fuel to almost any country on earth not part of the sanctions.
The people China would be targeting with any trade war are its only customer base, Russia already buys as much as it is going to from China.

[Matt4Liberty]

Not only can we begin to produce for ourselves again, but we can buy from other suppliers, the EU is one, but Mexico actually sells us more stuff than the Chinese do now, and there are others like India as well.
China will not be able to sell advanced goods in any quantity to 3rd world hellholes to replace our customer base.
The will beg us to buy from them again long before we capitulate to them.
And it doesn't help them at all that their economic and debt problems are even worse than ours.

Where's Mexico getting their parts and materials. If you take anything and break it down enough, you end up with a bunch of Chinese materials and parts. The EU is laughable. About all they can produce is hot air from their politicians. Trying to build up domestic production is going to take many decades. (Not that I'm against trying)

[Swordsmyth]

Where's Mexico getting their parts and materials. If you take anything and break it down enough, you end up with a bunch of Chinese materials and parts. The EU is laughable. About all they can produce is hot air from their politicians. Trying to build up domestic production is going to take many decades. (Not that I'm against trying)

There are other sources than China.
And we can go longer without them than they can go without us.
It's also unlikely that they would cut the whole world off 100%, that means things would work their way around and we would get what we needed to survive.
But they would reduce their export income enough to accelerate their already rapidly approaching collapse.

[GlennwaldSnowdenAssanged]

What good does it do to sell to an entity that has no money and cannot pay for what you produced?