Liberty candidates for Senate 2012 - the definitive list

[aspiringconstitutionalist]

This will be my attempt to compile the data regarding the big 2012 races and our best shots at putting liberty candidates in those seats:


SENATE

Arizona:
(Very high priority race for us)
Potential Liberty Candidates:
1. Rep. Jeff Flake (chances: ★★★★★ purity: ★★★★☆)
This one's a no-brainer. There is no incumbent, Flake has already announced, and he's polling well (though the only poll that's been conducted so far shows him currently a close second to the tough-on-immigration "Sheriff Joe," who has not declared, by the way). Up until 2010, Flake was the second most libertarian congressman in office, and he's still a pretty darn good libertarian. He's no Ron Paul or Justin Amash, of course, but Flake is more than acceptable for us. I'm sure he'll have Paul's endorsement.
My Pick: Jeff Flake

California:
(Slightly high priority race for us)
Potential Liberty Candidates:
1. Former PayPal CEO Peter Thiel (chances: ★★★☆☆ purity: ★★★★★)
Peter Thiel is a very smart, talented, and wealthy guy who could hold his own in the debates and, as a billionaire, self-fund his campaign (though money alone is admittedly not the main reason we should nominate someone, as Meg Whitman proved in 2010). He has no prior electoral experience, but he has been involved in politics and is an outspoken libertarian. His executive experience will also give him leadership and decision-making cred. As a gay man and a prominent gay rights activist, he could steal a lot of votes from the large gay communities in the Bay Area and it would be hard for liberals to paint him into the "typical old fashioned conservative" corner. A lot of Ron Paulians may take issue with the fact that he has been a speaker at some Bilderberg conferences, but he must be one of the few Bilderberg speakers to have not drank the Koolaid: he is a firm libertarian with a long history of supporting libertarian causes, and he has become more and more libertarian with the passing years (in his own words: "I was pretty libertarian ... I'm WAY libertarian now"). He has been heavily influenced by the writings of Murray Rothbard and Hans-Hermann Hoppe in the past few years (which might actually cause some problems for him, as he is on the record saying something like "I no longer believe that freedom and democracy are compatible," but he might be able to explain that away by saying that America was never intended to be a pure democracy, but rather a constitutional republic). Thiel has been helping fund seasteading projects and other attempts to create libertarian safe-havens. He is a believer in Austrian economics who is on record predicting the housing bubble as early as 2000, which will give him even more economic credibility.
2. Rep. Tom McClintock (chances: ★★☆☆☆ purity: ★★★★☆)
McClintock is already a US Representative, and has been elected to lower offices before that, so he at least has good qualifications for the office. Regardless of who we run in CA, our chances are not spectacular. Feinstein is running for reelection, and it's always hard to take down an incumbent Democrat, let alone a popular incumbent Democrat, in California. McClintock is probably our second best shot behind Peter Thiel, however. Meg Whitman might try again for this seat, but she's slightly damaged goods after 2010. Like Jeff Flake, McClintock is no Ron Paul, but he is still very libertarian. He was endorsed by the RLC and Ron Paul in '08: Great on spending and taxes, pro-pot, and has recently been converting to libertarian stances on foreign policy and privacy issues (he vocally repented for his 2010 vote for the Patriot Act).
3. Former Rep. Barry Goldwater, Jr. (chances: ★★☆☆☆ purity: ★★★★★)
He's already been elected to a major political office by Californians several times, so he's proven he can get elected. The biggest problem is that he seems to show almost no interest in running for any office again. He resisted efforts to draft him to move to Arizona and run for Governor in 2008, and efforts to draft him into the race for RNC Chairman in 2010. The Goldwater name might be too much for Californians though, since it brings to mind extreme Republicanism in the minds of many lefties. He would need to work on his delivery, as he comes across as a bit rambly presently. He also might be seen as a little old, though he's only currently in his early 70s. He's a Ron Paulian libertarian, however, who would be great on the issues. While he's been a little over-generous with his endorsements (backing John McCain's Senate reelection bid and Schwarzenegger for Governor) he could use those to his advantage and call upon big names like that for endorsements for his own run.
4. Judge Janice Rogers Brown (chances: ★★☆☆☆ purity: ★★★★★)
Brown could have a shot at winning, if she were willing to throw her hat into the ring, but she came to be seen as something of an icon of the Bush era, when her nomination to the court by President George W. Bush was stalled by Democrats. Though she is a Bush nominee, she self identifies as a libertarian, calling libertarian philosophy “irresistible,” describing private property rights as “the guardian of every other right,” calling collectivism a “slavery to the tribe,” and labeling government a “leviathan … crushing everything in its past.” Also, her status as a female African American would make it more difficult to peg her into the old, white, male conservative mold.
5. Talk radio host Larry Elder (chances: ★★☆☆☆ purity: ★★☆☆☆)
Elder is well known enough that he'd have a shot in the Senate race. He clearly has some desire to run for office, as he contemplated entering the 2010 California Senate race. He might be thinking about 2012 as well. He calls himself a “libertarian Republican,” though he supported Bush in 2004 and McCain in 2008. He's an Ayn Rand devotee, opposer of the income tax and the Drug War, and a supporter of free trade and school choice. However, he's also a firm foreign policy neoconservative and advocate of the War On Terror.
6. Prof. Thomas Sowell (chances: ★☆☆☆☆ purity: ★★★☆☆)
As a long-established political columnist and a great wordsmith, this Stanford University prof could certainly do well in a political debate. Also, the fact that he is African American would make it harder to paint him into a "stereotypical, old, white Republican" picture. But, he's never held political office before, he shows no intention of wanting to run for anything, and he's already 80 years old. He's been a very eloquent advocate for liberty, but he leans a lot more toward traditional conservatism than most self-professed "libertarians". He is by no means a libertarian purist.
7. Former State Assemblyman Chuck Devore (chances: ★☆☆☆☆ purity: ★★★★★)
DeVore has held political office before, but only as an assemblyman. He ran for Senate in 2010 and scored some great endorsements, including from Jim DeMint, Tea Party groups, and 60% of California's elected Republican officials. He finished with a respectable 19% of the primary vote. Voters have already been introduced to him, so he'll have to do less name id work a second time around. Still--losing a primary always kind of taints one's aura of electability. He's a very good libertarian.
8. Retired Judge James P. Gray (chances: ★☆☆☆☆ purity: ★★★★★)
Judge Gray was presiding judge of the Superior Court of Orange County, CA, and the 2004 Libertarian nominee for Senate in California, so he's no political neophyte, but he's not the conventional Republican nominee. He's been a great advocate on the issues, particularly anti-Drug War. He could definitely siphon off young, pro-pot voters who are disappointed with Feinstein's support for the drug prohibition.
9. Businessman John Dennis (chances: ☆☆☆☆☆ purity: ★★★★★)
He raised his profile in a House race against Pelosi last year, but lost by a huge margin. If he lost an even smaller race, he probably wouldn't be able to win a state wide race, although California as a whole is significantly less blue than Pelosi's district, so he might fair better if he's the nominee. He's a great libertarian and constitutionalist, also.
10. Policy expert Mattie Fein (chances: ☆☆☆☆☆ purity: ★★★★★)
Mattie Fein (wife of constitutional scholar Bruce Fein) is a smart lady who has proven her intelligence in policy-making, advising, business strategy, and financial writing. However, she has very low name recognition, she's never held a political office before, and she lost the Republican primary for her House race in 2010. It wouldn't hurt with the female vote to run a smart, self-made woman against Feinstein though (but the juxtaposition of Fein vs. Feinstein might create a few jokes). She's definitely a firm libertarian.
My Pick: Peter Thiel

Connecticut:
(Very low priority race for us)
Potential Liberty Candidates:
1. EuroPacific Capital CEO and talk radio host Peter Schiff (chances: ★☆☆☆☆ purity: ★★★★★)
He ran for Senate before, and went from 1% in the polls to a very respectable 23% on primary day, but couldn't seem to overcome Rob Simmons's deeply ingrained state-wide popularity and Linda McMahon's gobs of money. Both Simmons and McMahon ran low-blow campaigns and came out of 2010 damaged. McMahon also proved that money can't buy you love in CT. After throwing so much money down the hole in 2010, McMahon is probably unlikely to run again. But Schiff also sounds very reluctant to ever run for office again, also. With Lieberman retiring, there will also be a united Democrat vote again, making it even more difficult for a Republican to win that seat. And with strong Democratic candidates like former State Sec Susan Bysiewicz and Rep. Chris Murphy in the race, the seat begins to look like even more of a Dem lock. Also, Republican former Gov. Jodi Rell is polling well, so if she gets in, she'll be the frontrunner for sure. If Schiff ran and won, though, he would be arguably one of the best libertarian Senators ever (though one problem area is his slight hawkishness on Iran).
2. Vanity Fair Editor Graydon Carter (chances: ★☆☆☆☆ purity: ★★★★☆)
This Roxbury resident has the notoriety and personal fortune to launch a Senate campaign if he wanted to, but it might be tough to convince a non-voter who says he finds both major political parties “appalling” to enter a Republican primary race, and it might be even harder to convince dyed-in-the-wool Republican primary voters to vote for someone who has shunned their Party in the past. Nevertheless, his anti-partisan mentality would play well with independent voters in the general election. This self-labeled “libertarian” might be the best person we could draft into this 2012 race, since it looks like Schiff is sick of political campaigns post-2010.
My Pick: Graydon Carter

Delaware:
(Very low priority race for us)
Potential Liberty Candidates:
1. Christine O'Donnell (chances: ★☆☆☆☆ purity: ★★☆☆☆)
She's never won political office before, but she's proven she can win a Republican primary, so at least that's out of the way. After 2010, she wouldn't have to do any more name recognition work, as she has almost universal name id now. However, this Senate seat is currently occupied by the intensely popular incumbent Tom Carper, who is seeking re-election. Also, I hesitate to call O'Donnell a "liberty candidate". She is a Tea Partier and a traditional conservative with slight libertarian leanings (mostly on economic and states' rights issues).
2. Businessman Jim Rash (chances: ☆☆☆☆☆ purity: ★★★★★)
The 2010 Libertarian Party Senate nominee in Delaware, real estate broker Jim Rash has some political experience and is a solid libertarian constitutionalist, but would have trouble getting the GOP nomination as someone who has shunned the GOP in the past, and would have even more trouble in the general election as a no-namer against a popular incumbent. But the Tea Party has changed everything, and there is a slight chance the Tea Party and folks like Jim DeMint could take a surprise liking to an outsider like Rash if he ran as a Republican, and rocket him to prominence. Now that we have several libertarians in the Senate and House, he could at least get the support of people like Rand Paul, Mike Lee, Ron Paul, Justin Amash, etc. if he ran.
My Pick: Jim Rash

Florida:
(Slightly low priority race for us)
Potential Liberty Candidates:
1. Wikipedia founder Jimmy Wales (chances: ★★★☆☆ purity: ★★★★☆)
This Saint Petersburg, FL resident lacks electoral experience, but he's knowledgeable of political issues and his large personal fortune and notoriety would definitely give him the boost he needed to get a Senate campaign rolling. He hasn't seemed to ever indicate an interest in running for anything, but it would be worth trying to persuade him. He might be the one libertarian Republican who has what it takes to win a primary and defeat incumbent Dem Bill Nelson. He calls himself a libertarian and an Objectivist, and founded Wikipedia on “Hayekian principles”. He would be great to have as a US Senator.
2. Cato Institute Chairman Robert Levy (chances: ★★☆☆☆ purity: ★★★★☆)
As a notable lawyer, the Chairman of Cato, a professor, and a well-received author, Naples resident Levy would be a serious candidate for the seat, though there would be work to be done in convincing him to run and in getting him through the primary and the general election, seeing as he hasn't run for any political office before.
3. State Rep. Lake Ray III (chances: ★☆☆☆☆ purity: ★★★☆☆)
Has been elected and re-elected, so he's no political neophyte. Not so much a libertarian as a traditional conservative with libertarian leanings, though.
4. Brevard County Commissioner Andy Anderson (chances: ★☆☆☆☆ purity: ★★★★★)
Has a long list of successful elections to local, small-time offices: County Commissioner, City Council member, Deputy Mayor... But he's kind of untested on a larger level, and might be more interested in looking at a House seat in the future instead. On top of his political experience, he's also a businessman and an Army veteran, which always plays well with the electorate. Not much is known about his political views, but he is affiliated with the RLC and seems to be fairly libertarian insofar as his views are known.
5. Prof. Randall Gregory Holcombe (chances: ★☆☆☆☆ purity: ★★★★★)
As the DeVoe Moore Professor of Economics at Florida State University, Prof. Holcombe is clearly a smart guy who could debate the issues, but whether he's a big enough name to make an impact is unsure. As a self-professed libertarian and adherent of Austrian Economics, he'd be a great liberty candidate.
6. Retired naval officer and businessman Troy Stanley (chances: ☆☆☆☆☆ purity: ★★★★★)
He lost his 2010 House race, but he could at least use his military and business experience to his advantage, electorally. He's a fairly good liberty candidate, but doesn't stand much chance of winning, especially against a fairly popular incumbent Democrat like Bill Nelson.
My Pick: Jimmy Wales

Hawaii:
(Very low priority race for us)
Potential Liberty Candidates:
1. State Senator Sam Slom (chances: ★☆☆☆☆ purity: ★★★☆☆)
As the only Republican in the Hawaii State Senate (and, heck, one of the few Republicans in the State, period) it might be a bit easier for him to win the Republican nomination in such a small GOP, but there are rumblings that former Gov. Linda Lingle is interested in challenging Akaka, and if she gets in, the nomination is practically hers for the taking. Whichever Republican is the nominee, however, faces an extremely uphill battle against the very popular incumbent Democrat, Daniel Akaka. Slom is a member of the Republican Liberty Caucus, but he isn't a purist libertarian either. He's excellent on fiscal issues, supports medical marijuana, supports gun rights, opposes road cameras, supports merit pay for public school teachers, supports term limits, supports decentralizing the education system, spoke out against compulsory fluoridation of public water, and has battled the unions, but he opposes legalizing gambling, opposes legalizing euthanasia, and is sort of anti-gay. Nevertheless, he's probably our best shot at putting a fairly liberty-oriented Senator into office from Hawaii.
2. Prof. Rudolph Rummel (chances: ☆☆☆☆☆ purity: ★★★★★)
This political science professor from the University of Hawaii is a smart and accomplished libertarian thinker, but he's never shown an indication he plans to run for office. If Sam Slom is totally uninterested, it might be worth bringing up the possibility with Rummel. Still, Rummel would have to cross his fingers that Linda Lingle didn't enter the Republican primary, and it would take an even more extreme stroke of luck to make it through the general election.
My Pick: Sam Slom

Indiana:
(Very high priority race for us)
Potential Liberty Candidates:
1. State Senator Mike Delph (chances: ★★★☆☆ purity: ★★★★★)
Incumbent Republican Richard Lugar has traditionally cruised to re-election, being easily renominated by the GOP, and having won the general election by no less than two thirds of the vote for the past three decades (and by over 80% in the last election). However, Lugar's increasingly liberal voting record has suddenly angered the Tea Party movement in Indiana. This could be just the year that Lugar gets tossed out. State Senator Mike Delph is an adept politician, having won by nearly 20 points in an area that President Obama won by over 10 points. He's also a self-proclaimed "strict constitutionalist" and member of the RLC. He hasn't had to vote on much other than economic and educational issues, which he's shown himself to be a true liberty candidate on so far. His views on things like foreign policy are kind of up in the air, though he's seemed to indicate he's a libertarian on those issues as well. He's already expressed an interest in the seat, so it wouldn't take much to convince him to enter the race all the way.
2. Former Rep. John Hostettler (chances: ★★★☆☆ purity: ★★★★☆)
Hostettler could just as easily become the darling of the Tea Party as Mike Delph could, against RINO establishment Sen. Dick Lugar. He got elected and reelected to Congress several times, but lost his last reelection bid in 2006. Losing as an incumbent is kind of hard to do, but 2006 was admittedly a VERY bad year for Republicans. Hostettler tried to run for Senate in 2010, and started out as the frontrunner for the nomination, but ultimately came in 3rd in the primary. It may be an even tougher primary in 2012 with an incumbent in place, but Hostettler would be putting his faith in the peculiar new phenomenon of Tea Party power, which has been known to topple once-invincible incumbents in favor of lesser known, more liberty-loving candidates. Hostettler is a pretty good libertarian, though not as strict a constitutionalist as Ron Paul. His most troubling area for us is foreign policy, where he is slightly hawkish, but to his credit is an opponent of the Iraq War.
3. State Senator Greg Walker (chances: ★★☆☆☆ purity: ★★★★☆)
Walker hasn't shown any interest in running for the Senate seat, but he could also potentially catch fire with the Tea Party and take down Lugar in the primary. He's made a bit of a name for himself as someone who fights special interests and has a 100% voting record, but he's still not as well known as Delph or Hostettler. He's very pro-economic freedom, pro-education freedom, pro-gun rights, is an RLC endorsed official, and is an outspoken proponent of states' rights, though he's not a totally purist liberty candidate. My thoughts are that he'd be a good backup if neither Delph nor Hostettler end up running.
4. State Rep. Steve Davisson (chances: ★★☆☆☆ purity: ★★★★★)
Another good backup candidate if neither Delph nor Hostettler run. A proud libertarian Republican and 10th amendment crusader, Davisson could also take up the role of surprise Tea Party challenger, though he's not as high profile and sort of lacks the charisma of the above three candidates.
5. State Rep. Cindy Noe (chances: ★★☆☆☆ purity: ★★★★★)
Yet another potential, acceptable backup candidate if none of the above run or catch fire with voters. Has a record of being elected and is good on the issues. Her candidacy might also help with female voters.
My Pick: Mike Delph or John Hostettler

[aspiringconstitutionalist]

Maine:
(Slightly high priority for us)
Potential Liberty Candidates:
1. Conservative activist Andrew Ian Dodge (chances: ★☆☆☆☆ purity: ★★★☆☆)
Polls show that Maine Republicans are about ready to kick RINO Sen. Olympia Snowe to the curb as part of the Tea Party wave, though it's still not a sure thing. Andrew Ian Dodge is a kind of quirky candidate (a heavy metal rocker who pretty much lives in the United Kingdom) who nevertheless seems to be catching on slightly with the Tea Party there. Dethroning Snowe might actually be the easiest part of his task, as Maine otherwise votes heavily for Democrats. Dodge is a pretty limited government conservative with a civil libertarian and social moderate streak, but he's not a Ron Paulian.
2. State Rep. Richard Malaby (chances: ★★☆☆☆ purity: ★★★★☆)
Malaby has at least as good a chance of knocking off Snowe as any of the people in this list, and he's an RLC member who proudly labels himself a "fiscal libertarian" and a "social libertarian." I don't think he's ever talked about foreign policy, but anyone who's willing to label himself a "libertarian" is more likely than not a reasonably anti-war fellow. At the very least, 2 out of 3 types of libertarian isn't bad.
3. State Rep. Beth O'Connor (chances: ★★☆☆☆ purity: ★★★★★)
Beth O'Connor gained national prominence on the Glenn Beck Show back when she was just a politically interested waitress, who wrote a scathing letter of criticism to Barack Obama, calling him a socialist. She eventually ran and defeated an incumbent state representative. Her strong, anti-Obama rhetoric and affiliation with Glenn Beck, in a kind of blue state like Maine might hurt her in a general election, but she would be the darling of the Tea Party if she threw her hat in the ring. She's also a strong libertarian, who links to the Foundation for Economic Education, Tax Payers United, and the Cato Institute on her campaign website.
4. State Sen. Jon Courtney (chances: ★★☆☆☆ purity: ★★★★☆)
Courtney has given no indication he's interested in Snowe's Senate seat, but he might be someone we'd be interested in trying to draft for the primary, if we can find out more about him. He currently affiliates with the RLC and touts himself as an anti-tax crusader--someone the Tea Party could potentially latch on to--but little else is known about his beliefs and stances on the issues.
5. State Sen. Debra Plowman (chances: ★★☆☆☆ purity: ★★★★☆)
Like Courtney, she's sent no signals she's interested in challenging Snowe for a Senate seat, but she's also someone to keep in mind. A businesswoman and outspoken supporter of business deregulation, not much is known about her political philosophy, though she is a member of the Republican Liberty Caucus.
6. State Sen. Lois Snowe-Mello (chances: ★★☆☆☆ purity: ★★★★☆)
Ditto to the above.
My Pick: Beth O'Connor

Maryland:
(Slightly low priority for us)
Potential Liberty Candidates:
1. Former Queen Anne's County Commissioner Eric Wargotz (chances: ★☆☆☆☆ purity: ★★★★☆)
As former Queen Anne's County commissioner and 2010 Republican Senate nominee, he's shown he can be elected, though he has a general election loss against Barbara Mikulski under his belt from 2010. Ben Cardin doesn't promise to be much easier--polls show him beating a generic Republican opponent by about 20 points. A self-proclaimed "libertarian Republican" and supporter of Ron Paul for President in 2008, a Sen. Wargotz--while not a totally pure libertarian--would be a great ally in the Senate.
2. Rep. Roscoe Bartlett (chances: ★★☆☆☆ purity: ★★★☆☆)
Bartlett has been elected and re-elected to a federal office, showing he has what it takes to win. However, he is already getting very old, which will not help in the general election. He affiliates with the Tea Party Caucus and the Republican Liberty Caucus, advocating a return to limited government principles and individual liberty, as well as being one of the few anti-war (though it's a rather tepid opposition to the wars, and he still supports a somewhat large military budget) Republican House members. Whether or not he would run and win, at his age, remains the biggest issue however.
3. Former RNC Chairman Michael Steele (chances: ★★☆☆☆ purity: ★★☆☆☆)
Steele seems to be a typical fiscal conservative, but he doesn't exactly go crazy for the culture warrior schtick, and he softly disowned Bush's wars. Thus, we might want to at least be somewhat open to supporting Steele in a re-match with Cardin if Steele chooses to run again. While he lost his first Senate election, he ran a very professional campaign, and at least gave a Democrat a good run for his money in blue Maryland. Having won his race for Lt. Gov. and for RNC Chair, and having presided as RNC Chair over the big Republican comeback of 2010, he's proven he's got some electoral sense. He's no libertarian, but let's just avoid writing him off entirely.
4. Minaret Institute President Prof. Imad-ad-Dean Ahmad (chances: ★☆☆☆☆ purity: ★★★★★)
Prof. Ahmad of the University of Maryland and Georgetown University is incredibly intelligent and articulate, and he'd be a formidable debater. He's been involved with the Libertarian Party in Maryland, but his campaign work for Ron Paul for the 2008 Republican presidential nomination is evidence he might be willing to get involved with the GOP. If so, he'd have to convince them he's one of them. As President of the Minaret Institute, the world's foremost libertarian Muslim think tank, he'd be a fascinating candidate and would defy many liberal stereotypes about Republicans. He would, however, risk angering the conservative base in Maryland because of his outspoken opposition to Bush's wars and the neoconservative foreign policy doctrine. This anti-partisan mentality would definitely help with moderate and liberal voters, though. I think Republicans should jump at the chance to draft such a smart, interesting candidate, and I really hope he considers the prospect.
5. Prof. Tyler Cowen (chances: ★★☆☆☆ purity: ★★★★☆)
Another smart Georgetown prof with libertarian beliefs, Cowen is a New York Times columnist who has been named by the Economist as one of the most influential columnists of the last decade. As a well-known author and academian, he could avoid being pegged as a no-name fringe candidate. However, he takes pride in being a “libertarian bargainer,” someone who is willing to compromise his principles to make incremental progress toward liberty. That sounds bad to strict constitutionalists like us, but he's still a great libertarian. Yet, we shouldn't expect him to be another Ron Paul.
6. Prof. Randy Barnett (chances: ★☆☆☆☆ purity: ★★★★★)
Yet ANOTHER smart Georgetown prof with libertarian beliefs (he's a senior fellow at the Cato Institute and the Goldwater Institute, and has advised the Federalist Society in the past), Prof. Barnett would be great to have in the Senate. Though he has no electoral experience, he is well known as an author, media figure, and constitutional scholar. He might be viewed as too extreme and kooky for his proposals to repeal the 17th amendment and add 10 new amendments to the Constitution (abolishing the income tax, unfunded mandates, and campaign finance regulations; restricting interpretation of the Commerce Clause and the Treaty Power; enacting congressional term limits and a presidential line item veto power; allowing three quarters of the states to overturn congressional legislation; and strengthening the 10th amendment and the originalist philosophy of constitutional interpretation).
7. Prof. Russell Roberts (chances: ★☆☆☆☆ purity: ★★★★★)
And just one more libertarian Georgetown prof. This one is also a regular NPR contributor, and writes for the New York Times and Wall Street Journal.
8. Charles County Board of Education Member Collins Bailey (chances: ☆☆☆☆☆ purity: ★★★★★)
Bailey has at least been elected as a board of education member, and is a two-time Republican nominee for Congress, but he has lost both of his House races, leaving little hope that he could win an even broader Senate race. He's an A+ libertarian constitutionalist, though.
My Pick: Imad-ad-Dean Ahmad

Massachusetts:
(Very low priority for us)
Potential Liberty Candidates:
1. State Sen. Robert Hedlund (chances: ★☆☆☆☆ purity: ★★★★★)
Hedlund actually has a pretty successful record of winning elections in Massachusetts as a Republican underdog, but his luck would be pushed far beyond its limits in a US Senate race. There is little chance Hedlund could defeat incumbent Scott Brown in a Republican primary, and then defeat whoever the Democrats nominate. Brown will have enough trouble retaining his Senate seat as it is. If Hedlund actually managed to become the next US Senator (he's shown no desire to try for it), this Citizens For Limited Taxation and Republican Liberty Caucus member would certainly be an improvement over Brown. A US Sen. Hedlund remains a pipe dream, however.
2. Former Gov. Paul Cellucci (chances: ★★★★☆ purity: ★☆☆☆☆)
Paul Cellucci is probably the only Republican official other than Scott Brown who could win a Senate seat in Massachusetts. Cellucci was a well-liked Republican Governor, who remains popular with Massachussans due to his moderate stances. He's repeatedly stated he has no further interest in running for anything, however, and furthermore he has been diagnosed with a slow case of Lou Gehrig's disease. As Governor, he was one of the best in the nation on fiscal issues, earning an A grade on taxes/spending and glowing praise from the Cato Institute, but he was pro-gun control and pro-Roe V Wade. He also supported Rudy Giuliani for President in 2008, evidencing hawkish foreign policy views. From a purely fiscal standpoint, he would be an improvement over Scott Brown if he simply replaced Brown, but he wouldn't be a terribly good liberty candidate on his own merits.
3. Former NFL player John Hannah (chances: ★★☆☆☆ purity: ★★★★☆)
The New England Patriots' John Hannah is certainly politically informed, being an active Tea Partier and having contributed to libertarian and Republican causes in recent years. He's given thought to running for Congress in the past (supporters of his once tried to draft him to run for the House from Alabama), but has never made the final plunge into electoral politics yet. This Charlestown resident and All American Hall of Famer (“Best Offensive Lineman of All Time”) might make a formidable candidate, but this race will be tough for any Republican, especially a committed limited government proponent like Hannah.
4. Folk singer Arlo Guthrie (chances: ★☆☆☆☆ purity: ★★★★☆)
Running an old folk singer in blue blood Massachusetts might not be the best choice, but at least he has a fairly well known name as a major entertainer. This Massachusetts resident could feasibly become the Tea Party's answer to Scott Brown, but whether he could beat a Democrat in the general election is another matter still. At least his independent beliefs could be marketed widely to conservatives, liberals, and moderates. In any case, this self-labeled “Ron Paul Republican” and anti-Fed activist would fight for our interests in the US Senate.
My Pick: John Hannah

Michigan:
(Very high priority for us)
Potential Liberty Candidates:
1. Rep. Justin Amash (chances: ★★★★☆ purity: ★★★★★)
Justin Amash is definitely one of the youngest rising stars in the GOP. Having a fresh face, who's not a crotchety old white guy, always helps when electing a Republican. Amash is smart, good-looking, known for his honesty and commitment to transparency, and very well liked in Michigan. He served as a State Representative before becoming a US Representative, though he only was elected US Rep in 2010, so some people might think it's too soon for him to seek higher office. Nevertheless, he's pretty much inherited the mantle of being the next Ron Paul in the House. A committed libertarian and strict constitutionalist, Justin Amash is our dream candidate for the Michigan Senate race. Polls show incumbent Democrat Debbie Stabenow is weak, holding razor thin margins over potential Republican candidates. The strongest Republican candidates, former Governor John Engler and former Michigan Attorney General Mike Cox, have both ruled out running, while the other frontrunner, former Representative Pete Hoekstra is still on the fence, so the field is wide open. We need to get Amash to run for this. Period.
2. State Rep. Bob Genetski (chances: ★★★☆☆ purity: ★★★★☆)
Another young, rising star in the Michigan GOP, though lower ranked than Amash, is State Rep. Bob Genetski. Popular and articulate, though only a state representative, Genetski might still be an excellent backup if Amash can't be persuaded to run. This Club For Growth and Republican Liberty Caucus member is a staunch free marketeer and liberty lover. He would make a great US Senator.
3. Mackinac Institute President Joseph Lehman (chances: ★★☆☆☆ purity: ★★★★★)
If none of the above throw their hat in the ring, we should definitely persuade Lehman to make a go at it. As head of one of the foremost libertarian think tanks in America, Lehman is educated, articulate, and has a lot of policy experience. He's also a staunch libertarian and Austrian economist.
4. Former State Rep. Leon Drolet (chances: ★★☆☆☆ purity: ★★★★★)
Drolet would also be a good backup candidate if Amash can't be persuaded to run. He served 6 years in the Michigan state legislature, and served two non-consecutive stints as Macomb County Commissioner. He also led a successful ballot initiative to severely restrict the state's eminent domain powers, and founded the Michigan Taxpayers Alliance, which he currently chairs. Drolet self identifies as a libertarian Republican.
5. Libertarian activist Scotty Boman (chances: ☆☆☆☆☆ purity: ★★★★★)
Boman is an average joe who has run for many government offices in Michigan before, though never successfully. He has practically zero chance of being elected, but it looks like he's pretty sure he's running. He's as principled as they come.
My Pick: Justin Amash

Minnesota:
(Slightly low priority for us)
Potential Liberty Candidates:
1. Former State Rep. Tom Emmer (chances: ★★☆☆☆ purity: ★★★★☆)
Emmer sailed through the gubernatorial primary in 2010 and lost the general election by only a VERY THIN margin. He's definitely shown that he CAN get elected state-wide, but he needs to do a little more work on his presentation and would need an extra pinch of luck. Polls show that, other than former Gov. Pawlenty (who's definitely running for President in 2012), Emmer and US Rep. Michele Bachmann are the most electable Republicans that could be put forward. However, the incumbent Democrat Amy Klobuchar is very popular, and it's going to be an extremely uphill battle to dethrone her. If Emmer makes it, he would be a trustworthy ally to the liberty movement in the Senate. A fierce, anti-tax fiscal libertarian and state sovereignty crusader, Emmer even had the guts to vote for abolishing the minimum wage in 2005.
2. Rep. Michele Bachmann (chances: ★★☆☆☆ purity: ★★★☆☆)
Michele Bachmann has hinted she might be interested in the Senate seat. Other than Pawlenty (who's almost certainly not running for Senate), Bachmann is the best hope for the general election. Polls show that if Bachmann gets into the race, the nomination is hers for the taking. But while her Tea Party conservatism makes her popular in her district, the state as a whole leans a little bluer, and likes more moderate, independent-minded candidates. If elected to the US Senate, Bachmann wouldn't exactly be a libertarian, but she would be very friendly and helpful to the liberty movement, in the mold of someone like Jim DeMint. An ally of Ron Paul, Bachmann has made good faith efforts to better understand and adhere to the original intent of the Constitution, and she's even invited Judge Andrew Napolitano to come give lessons on correct constitutional interpretation to freshmen congressmen. She's kind of neoconservative on foreign policy issues, but she's not gung-ho about it. She's focusing far more on economic and size-of-government issues.
3. Rep. Chip Cravaack (chances: ★★☆☆☆ purity: ★★★☆☆)
Chip Cravaack recently came from nowhere to unseat 18-term Democratic incumbent Jim Oberstar in one of the biggest political upsets of the year. Representative of a district that comprises a huge chunk of Northern Minnesota, Cravaack is freshly well-known in Minnesota and popular with the MN GOP. If Bachmann doesn't run, he's the next most likely Senate nominee. This RLC member has shown intentions of being a very capitalist official so far, fighting taxes, spending, and government regulation, though he hasn't been so good on war/civil liberty issues.
4. State Rep. Mary Kiffmeyer (chances: ★★☆☆☆ purity: ★★★★☆)
She served two terms as Minnesota's Secretary of State and is now a state representative. Kiffmeyer definitely has good electoral and policy experience. She's just as capable of winning as any of these candidates. She's also a dedicated fiscal conservative and member of the Republican Liberty Caucus. She's another great option for a liberty candidate to run in Minnesota.
5. State Rep. Andrea Kieffer (chances: ★☆☆☆☆ purity: ★★★★★)
Young, energetic, and principled, Andrea Kieffer definitely has a bright political future ahead of her. Her campaign slogan was, “Limited Government, Fiscal Responsibility, and Freedom”. She probably needs to be in the legislature a little longer before running for higher office, but she's an awesome backup candidate, if none of the bigger names run.
6. State Rep. Kathy Lohmer (chances: ★☆☆☆☆ purity: ★★★★★)
Ditto to the above.
7. State Rep. Steve Drazkowski (chances: ★☆☆☆☆ purity: ★★★★★)
Serving his 3rd term as a state rep, “Draz” (as he nicknames himself) has been a relentless opponent of government power, spending, and taxes. A great liberty candidate, we should definitely consider drafting Draz into the race if neither Emmer nor Cravaack get in.
8. State Rep. Sondra Erickson (chances: ★☆☆☆☆ purity: ★★★★★)
“Sondy” ran a great campaign for the MN legislature. She's also an eloquent supporter of individual liberty and limited government. She promised that if elected, she would do her part to force the MN government to “live within its means,” and she's upheld that promise, so far.
9. State Sen. Chris Gerlach (chances: ★☆☆☆☆ purity: ★★★★☆)
Perhaps a good backup if none of the above run, Gerlach has been successfully elected before, he's eloquent, well-liked, and a principled opponent of taxes and spending.
10. State Rep. Ron Shimanski (chances: ★☆☆☆☆ purity: ★★★★★)
Ditto to the above.
11. State Rep. Doug Wardlow (chances: ★☆☆☆☆ purity: ★★★★★)
Ditto to the above.
12. State Sen. Dave Thompson (chances: ★☆☆☆☆ purity: ★★★★☆)
Another good, backup candidate, Dave Thompson first made a name for himself as a paleoconservative talk radio host in Minnesota, and was recently elected to his first term in the Minnesota Senate. With only one election under his belt, he might be viewed as too fresh to run for the US Senate already, but let's keep him in mind, just in case.
13. State Rep. Kurt Bills (chances: ★☆☆☆☆ purity: ★★★★☆)
Newly elected State Rep. Kurt Bills ran a good campaign for the Minnesota legislature, and as an econ teacher, he brings an informed fiscal libertarian approach to the office. Another good backup candidate if none of the bigger names run.
My Pick: Tom Emmer

Mississippi:
(Very low priority for us)
Potential Liberty Candidates:
1. Businessman Joe Tegerdine (chances: ★☆☆☆☆ purity: ★★★★☆)
He ran for US Representative in 2010, garnered a respectable 43% of the vote in the Republican primary, and unfortunately lost. He could possibly try again for Senate this time and hope he becomes the next Tea Party sensation. A “Ron Paul Republican,” Tegerdine would be great to have in the US Senate, if he could topple incumbent Republican Senator Roger Wicker in the primary.
2. Businessman Cliff Brown (chances: ☆☆☆☆☆ purity: ★★★★☆)
Ran for and lost a Mississippi State Senate seat. Is a fairly intelligent guy with lots of Tea Party connections, so he could possibly become a surprise Tea Party favorite, especially if Mississippi Republicans start to examine incumbent Republican Roger Wicker's wishy washy record and get angry.
My Pick: Joe Tegerdine

Missouri
(Very high priority for us)
Potential Liberty Candidates
1. Former State Treasurer Sarah Steelman (chances: ★★★★☆ purity: ★★★☆☆)
Steelman is a pretty darn good candidate for us to get behind, and she's already declared. The two Republicans who were most likely to stand in the way of her getting the nomination—former Sen. Jim Talent and Lt. Gov. Peter Kinder—have opted out of the race, so she appears to be the frontrunner for the nomination. Polls have Steelman tied with incumbent Democrat Claire McCaskill for the general election. While not a purist libertarian Republican, she has strong libertarian leanings, and has reached out to libertarian Republicans on a regular basis, including attending Campaign For Liberty meetings. It would be really awesome to get her in the Senate. She's about on par with newly elected Utah Senator Mike Lee in terms of ideological rigor. In other words, she's probably not a strict constitutionalist, but she's still a quite good, liberty-friendly official.
My Pick: Sarah Steelman

[aspiringconstitutionalist]

Montana
(Slightly high priority for us)
Potential Liberty Candidates
1. State Rep. Joel Boniek (chances: ★★☆☆☆ purity: ★★★★★)
Joel Boniek is a terrific liberty candidate. A self-described Ron Paulian, libertarian Republican, who affiliates with the Campaign For Liberty, the Republican Liberty Caucus, Oath Keepers, the Patrick Henry Caucus, and the 10th Amendment Center, Boniek gained a lot of attention for his state sovereignty crusades, especially in leading the charge against federal overreach on gun control issues. The current Democrat incumbent, Sen. Jon Tester, was elected by a razor thin margin last time around, and he's very vulnerable. The general election would not be a problem. In places like Montana, the GOP can afford to nominate super-principled Republicans like Boniek. However, the real challenge will be the GOP primary, where two Drug Warrior, foreign interventionist, neocon frontrunners (Rep. Denny Rehberg and former Gov. Marc Racicot) together take up about 77% of the vote. It would be a hell of a fight for Boniek, if he chose to wade into the primary, but Boniek is one of our best hopes for this seat.
2. State Rep. Mike Miller (chances: ★★☆☆☆ purity: ★★★★★)
The other potential liberty candidate who would be just as good as Boniek, and possibly even better, is Mike Miller. His Web presence seems to be slightly more refined than Boniek's, suggesting he might run a slightly better campaign. Like Boniek, he also affiliates with organizations like the Campaign For Liberty, Republican Liberty Caucus, Cato Institute, etc.
3. State Rep. Michael More (chances: ★★☆☆☆ purity: ★★★★★)
More is on the same par with Boniek and Miller. More has the advantage of being a bit younger. More would definitely be a superb US Senator. He makes a big deal about his support for a gold standard, on his website.
4. State Rep. Jerry O'Neill (chances: ★★☆☆☆ purity: ★★★★★)
The fourth elected official in the same category with Boniek, More, and Miller, is Jerry O'Neill, another strict constitutionalist who would be awesome in the Senate. O'Neill, More, Boniek, or Miller should definitely make a go at it.
5. State Rep. Krayton Kerns (chances: ★★☆☆☆ purity: ★★★★☆)
Legislator and doctor Krayton Kerns might be a pretty good candidate if the above don't run. Once again, he could probably win the general election, but getting past the two 800-pound gorillas in the Republican primary would be exceedingly difficult. He's not quite as principled a legislator as the five-star purity candidates listed above... Kerns seems to be more of a Jim DeMint/Paul Ryan Republican than a Ron Paul Republican... but he'd definitely be an improvement over Tester.
6. State Rep. Tom McGillvray (chances: ★★☆☆☆ purity: ★★★★☆)
Ditto to the above.
7. State Rep. Lee Randall (chances: ★★☆☆☆ purity: ★★★★☆)
Ditto to the above.
8. State Rep. Wendy Warburton (chances: ★★☆☆☆ purity: ★★★★☆)
Ditto to the above.
9. State Rep. Bob Wagner (chances: ★☆☆☆☆ purity: ★★★★☆)
Might be the best candidate if none of the above get into the race, but his decision to loudly voice his Birtherism theories are going to make people view him as kind of crazy.
10. Granite County Sheriff Stephen Immenschuh (chances: ★☆☆☆☆ purity: ★★★★☆)
I wasn't able to find his views on anything, but he does choose to affiliate with the Republican Liberty Caucus, so he can't be too bad. Sheriff isn't as good an office to jump to the US Senate from as State Legislator, but it's at least possible he could pull it off. We should at least keep him in mind if we can't find a better candidate.
My Pick: Mike Miller

Nebraska:
(Slightly low priority for us)
Potential Liberty Candidates:
1. Talk radio host Tom Becka (chances: ★★☆☆☆ purity: ★★★★☆)
Democrat incumbent Sen. Ben Nelson is very vulnerable in 2012, so there is much reason to be hopeful for the general election, but neocon Nebraska Attorney General Jon Bruning is dominating the polls for the Republican Senate nomination, with around 47% of the primary vote. If Omaha's libertarian talk radio host Tom Becka would run and could get the Tea Party energy behind him, he might be able to slip past Bruning and win, but Bruning seems to be keeping the Tea Party happy with his fight against the Obamacare mandate. In any case, Becka should at least consider challenging Bruning and Nelson. He might be one of, if not the best, liberty candidates we could draft for this race.
2. State Sen. Tony Fulton (chances: ★★☆☆☆ purity: ★★★☆☆)
Has won elections to the Nebraska State Senate, though lost in the primaries when running for State Treasurer. Fulton could also potentially catch fire with the Tea Party wing of the GOP if he ran. Fulton's a fairly liberty-oriented guy—not a libertarian, per se—but he's been the most outspoken proponent of state sovereignty and the 10th amendment in the Nebraska state legislature, he's been an anti-tax/spending crusader, and has a good limited government mindset. Arguably the best liberty candidate we could run for this seat, US Rep. Adrian Smith, has said he's not interested in the Senate right now, so while Fulton may be a good candidate to run, we shouldn't expect too much here.
3. Financial advisor Pat Flynn (chances: ★☆☆☆☆ purity: ★★☆☆☆)
Flynn finished with a respectable 22% of the vote in the Republican primary when he ran for Senate in 2008. This time, he's got some Tea Party backing, but Bruning is still far-and-away the favorite for the Republican nomination here. Plus, while Flynn uses phrases like “return to the Constitution,” and “free market capitalism,” he's also a hardcore culture warrior and frets a lot about “Islamofascism,” which implies he's probably got some strong neocon leanings. If it's a race between Bruning and Flynn, then Flynn might be worth our vote, but we could probably do better here.
My Pick: Tom Becka

Nevada:
(Slightly high priority for us)
Potential Liberty Candidates:
1. Former State Rep. Sharron Angle (chances: ★★☆☆☆ purity: ★★★☆☆)
Let's get the obvious one out of the way first. Angle has kept her profile up and has been hinting that she's looking at options for future political campaigns. If she could win the Republican Senate nomination in 2010, she could potentially pull off a win in 2012 as well. Scandal-plagued Republican incumbent John Ensign is incredibly weak going into the Republican primary season, and the current frontrunner for the nomination, Rep. Dean Heller, is sitting at around 30%. Angle is polling around 9% for the 2012 Senate nomination. It's possible she could pull off another surprise win, but she's not really a frontrunner for the seat either. If she is the nominee, she would at least have the advantage of not having to run against an entrenched Democratic incumbent like Harry Reid, and hopefully she's learned some valuable campaigning lessons from her 2010 endeavor. As for her ideological purity, she's not necessarily a libertarian, but she does have strong liberty-oriented leanings: she would abolish the Department of Education, slash government programs and taxes, and fight against federal overreach into states' rights. Her foreign policy isn't neoconservative, but it's not exactly non-interventionist either. Still, if she can snag the seat, she would be a fairly good Senator.
2. Businessman Danny Tarkanian (chances: ★★☆☆☆ purity: ★★★☆☆)
Danny Tarkanian is another figure from 2010 that could make a second attempt in 2012. He's polling at 10% for the 2012 Republican Senate nomination, slightly better than Angle. While he's lost three races (for Nevada Senate, Nevada State Secretary, and US Senate), he performed respectably in all of them, and remains a serious contender. Like Angle, he's not exactly a libertarian per se, but he has strong liberty leanings, and is something of a foreign non-interventionist. Another candidate to keep in mind.
3. Television host Penn Jillette (chances: ★★☆☆☆ purity: ★★★★★)
The first unconventional option to consider for this seat is Penn Jillette, of Penn & Teller fame. He's certainly smart and articulate, and is already fairly well known, but can he play the game of politics and win a Republican primary and a general election? Is his long hair and black fingernails image too wild for the average voter, and will his vocal hatred of religion keep the Mormon conservative base at home on general election day? If he ran, and could use his fame to his advantage, he'd make a great Rothbardian libertarian Senator.
4. Nevada Policy Research Institute President Sharon Rossie (chances: ★☆☆☆☆ purity: ★★★★★)
Rather unknown, at the moment, but libertarians should at least talk to her about the possibility of running. As President of one of the country's leading libertarian think tanks, she's solid on the issues, and she has extensive experience as a businesswoman and administrator at various major organizations, institutions, and several community boards. Smart and principled, she might be able to do in 2012 what Sharron Angle was unable to do in 2010.
5. Businessman and author Wayne Allyn Root (chances: ★☆☆☆☆ purity: ★★★★☆)
Here's a novel idea to consider. Root's presence in the Libertarian Party has been causing some scuffles over the past couple years. Would it be too far-fetched of an idea for him to just abandon the third party route and run as a libertarian Republican for the Nevada Senate? He has a national audience that exceeds the confines that usually entrap third party spokespersons. He's an eloquent speaker, and as a millionaire, he might even be able to self fund his campaign. Not a PURE constitutionalist, but he would still be damn good on the issues. But then again, he would have to give up his pipe dream of running for President on a third party ticket. In any case, it's something to consider.
6. Businessman Bill Parson (chances: ☆☆☆☆☆ purity: ★★★★★)
This libertarian businessman, Marine veteran, and Oath Keeper ran for Senate in 2010, but took less than 1% of the vote in the Republican primary. Maybe he'll try to run again. If he does, he probably won't fare much better, unfortunately.
My Pick: Danny Tarkanian

New Jersey:
(Slightly low priority for us)
Potential Liberty Candidates:
1. Rep. Scott Garrett (chances: ★★☆☆☆ purity: ★★☆☆☆)
Garrett, as an elected conservative Republican, is a rare species in New Jersey. While his own district, which has been gerrymandered to include the few Republican strongholds in the state, has remained in GOP hands for the past 30 years, Garrett might not fare too well in a statewide race, even if NJ has been trending slightly more red in recent years. Besides, incumbent Democrat Bob Menendez is pretty popular. As for his principles, he's a Republican Liberty Caucus member, and he's terrific on a lot of issues, except for his two big problem areas: foreign policy (he's extremely neoconservative) and gambling (he favors prohibition of it).
2. Television host and Retired Judge Andrew Napolitano (chances: ★★☆☆☆ purity: ★★★★★)
Judge Napolitano has a wide national audience, and his anti-partisan commitment to libertarian principles can appeal to both conservative voters and independents/liberals. He certainly has the speaking abilities and grasp of the issues to hold his own in a debate, and he has a large base of fans he could utilize for volunteers and fundraising. However, whether he has any interest in running for Senate is another matter entirely. He would likely be forced to give up his primetime television slot on FOX Business, and just at the time when Freedom Watch is really hitting its stride. In fact, I'm not sure I would want the Judge to run for Senate, if it meant no more Freedom Watch. He can probably do a lot more good for the liberty movement by staying on the air, but if he sees an opening in the Senate race and can find a suitable replacement host to keep Freedom Watch going, perhaps he should give a little thought to the prospect.
3. State Rep. Michael Patrick Carroll (chances: ★☆☆☆☆ purity: ★★★★★)
Another terrific libertarian Republican with a long history in the state legislature, Carroll's campaign slogan has been “Cut taxes, cut spending, stop borrowing.” He can boast of never having voted for a single tax increase and having opposed almost every single state budget (including those proposed by former Republican Governor Whitman). He's been a consistent advocate of limited government and personal freedom, and would be an awesome US Senator. Whether he's a big enough name to defeat Menendez is the big question for him as well, though.
4. State Sen. Mike Doherty (chances: ★☆☆☆☆ purity: ★★★★★)
Doherty would be a great liberty candidate, who would appeal to conservative voters with his fiscally responsible record and liberal/independent voters with his civil libertarian streak. Whether he has the name recognition and the gravitas to win a state-wide race, especially against a popular incumbent, however, is yet to be seen.
5. Professor Murray Sabrin (chances: ☆☆☆☆☆ purity: ★★★★★)
As far as Austrian economist libertarians go, Sabrin is the real deal. As a Senator, he would be on par with Rand Paul. His electoral record, however, isn't that enviable. He ran a longshot campaign as the Libertarian nominee for Governor in 1997, and then tried out for Republican nominee for Senate in 2008, finishing with a respectable but meek 14% of the vote. If neither Napolitano, Carroll, nor Doherty run, he should at least consider putting his name on the ballot to give libertarian Republicans a choice in the primary, but his odds are unfortunately slim.
My Pick: Mike Doherty

New Mexico:
(Very high priority for us)
Potential Liberty Candidates:
1. Former Gov. Gary Johnson (chances: ★★★★☆ purity: ★★★★★)
Johnson isn't far behind neocon former Rep. Heather Wilson in the polls for the Republican nomination for Senate in New Mexico, and he is by far the best performing Republican candidate in general election matchups (in fact, the only Republican who has been shown able to beat Democrats Martin Heinrich or Ben Lujan). The bigger question is whether he would even enter the race, however. He is definitely running for President in 2012. Perhaps if someone else wins the Republican presidential nomination, Johnson would consider parachuting into the NM Senate race and trying for President again on the next go-around. If the presidential campaign doesn't work out by early January 2012, Johnson would still have plenty of time to jump into the Senate race—and having his profile raised by a presidential run would certainly help his Senate odds as well. Having another Ron Paul Republican like Johnson in the Senate would certainly be fantastic for the liberty movement.
2. Businessman Doug Turner (chances: ★★★☆☆ purity: ★★★★☆)
Turner, who helped Johnson win two terms as Governor, but finished third in his own bid for the Republican nomination for Governor in 2010, is fairly liberty-oriented in his own rite, and could probably pick up most of the people who would vote for Johnson. He doesn't have quite the record and name recognition of Johnson, however, and no polling has yet been done to show how he might fare in the primary or general election.
3. Political activist Adam Kokesh (chances: ★☆☆☆☆ purity: ★★★★★)
Kokesh--a Marine veteran, political activist, and now a talk radio host--ran a failed campaign for the Republican nomination for a House seat in NM in 2010, so he's not a total political newbie, but his odds for winning a Senate seat are slim. He is, without a doubt, an incredibly principled libertarian, however.
My Pick: Doug Turner for now (or Gary Johnson, if his presidential campaign doesn't work out)

New York:
(Very low priority for us)
Potential Liberty Candidates:
1. Former (MA) Gov. William Weld (chances: ★★★☆☆ purity: ★★☆☆☆)
Weld was Governor of Massachusetts throughout the 90's, then moved to New York in 2000. Weld then ran for the Governorship of New York in 2006, losing the nomination to NY Assembly Leader John Faso (who went on to be crushed by Democrat Spitzer in the general election), though Weld's libertarian leanings earned him the New York Libertarian Party's nomination. Just how libertarian a US Senator who endorsed Mitt Romney in 2008 (could we chalk that up to the fact that he felt obligated as a fellow former Massachusetts Governor to endorse Romney?) would be, is up for question, but a guy who is willing to say “taxation is theft” and who braved boos at the 1992 Republican National Convention by declaring “government should stay out of your wallet AND out of your bedroom” might be a reasonably good Senator.
2. Former Lt. Gov. Betsy McCaughey (chances: ★★☆☆☆ purity: ★★☆☆☆)
I'm not really enthusiastic about McCaughey, but she has a shot at getting elected and might not be too terrible on the issues. She's already been elected to state-wide office twice, and she has a pretty put-together image. She's a smart lady who could do well in the debates. I mention her because she's already made some signs she might be running. She'd have to get past Rep. Peter King in the primary, however, as it looks like he's got his eye on the seat as well. Incumbent Democrat Kirsten Gillibrand seems to be pretty popular as well, but at least running McCaughey might help split the female vote. As far as her principles go, she's a staunch free marketeer who has made a name for herself crusading against both Clinton and Obama's health care legislation proposals. She is, however, a Bill Kristol neoconservative on foreign policy issues--yuck.
3. Television host John Stossel (chances: ★★☆☆☆ purity: ★★★★★)
John Stossel is well-known, respected, good-looking, and articulate. While he is a great libertarian, many people see him as just a conservative FOX host, however. He would have to challenge that by proving to many liberal New Yorkers that he's more independent than the typical right-winger. Like Judge Napolitano, while he might make an ideal candidate, he probably has little desire to throw his hat in the ring. He recently got his own self-titled show at FOX Business, and he seems to really be enjoying himself (and viewers are enjoying it too), so I doubt he'd want to give that up for such an iffy shot at political office. Nevertheless, if he ran, he would have deep support from libertarians and many conservative viewers who have grown to love him over the years. Principled and incisive, he'd definitely be one of the best Senators in a long time.
4. Former Rolling Stone Editor Kurt Loder (chances: ★☆☆☆☆ purity: ★★★★★)
Could a former Rolling Stone Editor and ex party animal go on to win the Republican nomination for US Senate? Would he even be willing to try? His personal mantra of “free love and free markets” could appeal to a wide spectrum of voters, or it could alienate them as well. He's definitely someone to at least keep in mind, though.
5. NYC Councilman Dan Halloran (chances: ★☆☆☆☆ purity: ★★★★★)
He's gotten himself elected as a libertarian Republican in the liberal stronghold of New York City, so that must count for something. His Republican-Libertarian-Independence-Conservative fusion campaign successfully appealed to a broad span of voters from across the political spectrum. He could do the same on a state-wide level. He'd need to do a lot of name id work, and his neopagan religious beliefs might freak a lot of people out (and dampen the enthusiasm of the Republican base, particularly conservative Christian upstate voters).
6. Prof. Richard Allen Epstein (chances: ★☆☆☆☆ purity: ★★★★☆)
Well known as one of the most influential legal thinkers of modern times, this NYU law prof could debate well, but his old age, anti-politician demeanor, and disdain for major political parties would hamper him significantly. Nevertheless, this Cato Institute fellow is a great libertarian thinker, and has been very influential in opposing eminent domain.
7. Prof. Steven Landsburg (chances: ★☆☆☆☆ purity: ★★★★★)
University of Rochester economics professor and Slate columnist describes himself as a “hardcore libertarian.” He's taken his philosophy on major news and commentary shows, and he might be able to be convinced to take it to the Senate primary debates.
8. Guilderland Town Councilman Warren Redlich (chances: ☆☆☆☆☆ purity: ★★★★★)
Lawyer and town councilman Redlich ran two failed campaigns for US Congress as a Republican, and ran for Governor in 2010 as a Libertarian (where he actually garnered, by far, the most votes any Libertarian had ever gotten in the race: just shy of the 50,000 that would have guaranteed the Libertarian Party automatic ballot access in NY). There's no telling if he would be interested in making a go at the Republican Senate nomination in 2012, but the odds would be against him if he did.
My Pick: John Stossel

[aspiringconstitutionalist]

North Dakota:
(Very high priority for us)
Potential Liberty Candidates:
1. Public Service Commissioner Kevin Cramer (chances: ★★★☆☆ purity: ★★★★★)
Cramer has been twice elected as North Dakota state public service commissioner with nearly two thirds of the vote, but made a failed campaign for the Republican nomination for US Congress in 2010. With current Republican Sen. Kent Conrad not seeking reelection in 2012, the race is wide open and potentially crowded on both sides. As far as his liberty principles go, he certainly talks the talk. His website emphasizes adherence to the confines of the US Constitution and devotes a section to the 10th amendment/state sovereignty. He clearly has a strong sense of the importance of individual liberty, limited government, free markets, and low taxes. He has apparently been crusading against Cap & Trade and Obamacare in the state, and has been heavily involved with the Tea Party movement, which will help him get going in the primaries. He's also already made motions like he's considering running. From all appearances, he's one of us, so we should give him a little encouragement to go for it. Since the general election is usually a cakewalk for the Republican nominee in ND, this is really a place where we can afford to nominate a strict constitutionalist candidate, and we need to take advantage of the wide-open field here this year. Opportunities like this don't come around very often.
My Pick: Kevin Cramer

Ohio:
(Slightly high priority for us)
Potential Liberty Candidates:
1. Rep. Jim Jordan (chances: ★★★☆☆ purity: ★★☆☆☆)
Jordan is open to the idea of running for Senate, he's polling in the double digits for the Republican nomination, and he's within single digits of Democratic incumbent Sherrod Brown for the general election. He definitely has a real shot at winning. Should libertarian Republicans get behind him? He's an absolute fiscal hawk, supporting a balanced budget amendment, and voting against all the bailouts, stimulus packages, subsidies, welfare, minimum wage hikes, and tax increases he's come across. Back when he was in the state legislature, he was key in passing welfare reform in Ohio as well. However, he's a hardcore culture warrior, Drug Warrior, and foreign policy neoconservative. Perhaps we can do better.
2. Actor/comedian Drew Carey (chances: ★★★★★ purity: ★★★★☆)
Let's face it: Ohio LOVES Marine veteran and famous comedian/actor Drew Carey. Carey is Ohio's most favorite son. If Carey were to decide to run for Senate, the office would practically be his for the taking. He has universal name recognition, a built-in fan base, and a wonderfully affable personality. The challenge would be to persuade him to run, since he's currently got a pretty good gig hosting the classic game show The Price Is Right. But, if we could convince Carey to “come on down” to his rockin' hometown, we would have a real champion of liberty on our roster. Carey is an outspoken and principled libertarian, having supported Ron Paul for President in 2008. He has also done a lot of work with the Reason Foundation, including doing his own mini-series called “The Drew Carey Project,” chronicling how government policies have ruined the once great city of Cleveland. We desperately need to get Carey into the GOP Senate primary. He is seriously the dream candidate for libertarian Republicans in this race. (If Al Franken can go from television to the Senate, why not Drew Carey?)
3. Reason Magazine Editor Nick Gillespie (chances: ★★☆☆☆ purity: ★★★★☆)
Another Reason figure and Ohio resident, the current Reason.com editor and former Reason Magazine editor Nick Gillespie is a true intellectual and a talented journalist. He would do well in debates. His good looks and pure smarts (he holds a doctorate) might very well make up for his lack of previously held electoral office and his lack of name recognition outside of libertarian circles. If we get anyone from Reason to run, it should be Drew Carey, but if Carey can't be convinced, then we should give some serious thought to Gillespie.
4. Former FEC Commissioner Bradley A. Smith (chances: ★★☆☆☆ purity: ★★★★☆)
The Granville resident and former commissioner/vice chairman/chairman of the Federal Election Commission, Bradley A. Smith, is someone else we should consider for the Senate in 2012. A very smart guy, Smith is a Harvard law school alum. He also happens to be an involved libertarian, serving as a senior fellow at the Goldwater Institute and a scholar at the Mackinac Center, as well as several other foundations.
5. Madison Township Trustee James Boyd (chances: ★☆☆☆☆ purity: ★★★★★)
A self described libertarian Republican, Boyd isn't at all well known and doesn't hold a very high office, but if all the above fail, he could at least provide liberty candidates with a little hope on primary election day.
6. Retired USAF Lt. Col. John Mitchel (chances: ☆☆☆☆☆ purity: ★★★★★)
A failed gubernatorial and House candidate, Lt. Col. Mitchel is nonetheless an articulate libertarian Republican whose writings are often found in Dayton area publications. His odds for winning a Senate seat aren't great, and he's shown no interest in trying, but if none of our top choices for this seat are available, perhaps we can get him to put his name on the ballot.
My Pick: Drew Carey

Pennsylvania:
(Slightly low priority for us)
Potential Liberty Candidates:
1. State Sen. Mike Folmer (chances: ★★☆☆☆ purity: ★★★★★)
A great Ron Paul Republican, Mike Folmer affiliates with such groups as the Campaign For Liberty, the Republican Liberty Caucus, and Restore the Republic. He's definitely one of us. If Rick Santorum wants the Republican nomination for Senate in 2012, it's practically Santorum's for the taking. Luckily, Santorum looks like he's instead eyeing a longshot bid for the Presidency. With Santorum out of the race, a crowded field of potential Republican candidates remains, with no one garnering any numbers higher than the teens, so the bar would be low for our liberty candidate, thankfully. Incumbent Democrat Bob Casey, Jr., however, is fairly popular, and is anywhere between 10 and 30 points ahead in general election matchups with just about any Republican candidate. The general election will definitely be the difficult part.
2. Former State Rep. Sam Rohrer (chances: ★★☆☆☆ purity: ★★★★★)
Another potential liberty candidate with state legislature experience, who is also completely on board with the liberty movement, is Sam Rohrer. A strict constitutionalist and foreign non-interventionist, who—while a Republican—has addressed the Pennsylvania Constitution Party, Rohrer opposes all unconstitutional spending, all tax increases, all government welfare, and crusaded against the REAL ID Act. Rohrer made a failed bid for the Republican nomination for Governor in 2010, but he ran a slick campaign and garnered such intense support that his fans tried to wage a write-in campaign for him in the general election, even though he wasn't on the ballot. As an involved Tea Partier, he would definitely get a boost from that movement.
3. Commonwealth Foundation CEO Matthew Brouillette (chances: ★★☆☆☆ purity: ★★★★★)
President and CEO of the Commonwealth Foundation for Public Policy Alternatives, Brouillette is a smart and unwavering advocate for libertarian policies. He is a former director for the Mackinac Institute as well, and has used his voice (which is often in columns and on the radio) to speak out for limited government and individual liberty, especially for school choice. He has been listed as one of the top 50 Republican influencers in the country. A young and compelling potential candidate, Brouillette should be given serious consideration for 2012 Republican Senate nominee.
4. Pittsburgh Tribune-Review Owner Richard Mellon Scaife (chances: ★★☆☆☆ purity: ★★★★☆)
A proud “conservative-libertarian” Republican, Scaife got his start in politics with the Goldwater for President campaign. He has also been a supporter of such organizations as the American Enterprise Institute, the Atlas Economic Research Foundation, the Federalist Society, FEE, and the Reason Foundation. In his late 70's, his age would be a drawback, but his $1 billion personal fortune would be a serious asset. If none of the above liberty candidates can be persuaded to run, perhaps we should try nudging Scaife into the race.
My Pick: Mike Folmer

Rhode Island:
(Very low priority for us)
Potential Liberty Candidates:
1. Businessman and lawyer Bob Healey (chances: ☆☆☆☆☆ purity: ★★★★★)
An eccentric and scraggly looking man, Healey gained national media attention for his campaign for Rhode Island Lt. Gov. in 2010 on a strict constitutionalist platform, advocating that he would practically abolish the $1 million office, and return it to the confines of the Rhode Island state constitution (which would entail him merely waiting around in case the Governor died or resigned). A noble and principled guy, he isn't quite the polished candidate that could win a major party nomination and a general election. His hopes would lie with the Tea Party and with the fact that RI is a small enough state that he could meet a huge portion of the voters face to face. Not the ideal candidate for this seat, but if no better liberty candidates can be found, he should consider putting his name on the ballot.
2. RI Tea Party Founder Colleen Conley (chances: ★☆☆☆☆ purity: ★★★★★)
A self-described “libertarian Republican,” Conley has been a vocal crusader against taxes and spending. She has no prior electoral experience, but she's been a competent media spokesperson for the Tea Party in Rhode Island, appearing occasionally on national media outlets. It might behoove us to draft a young and attractive candidate like Conley into the race.
3. Cranston Mayor Allan Fung (chances: ★★☆☆☆ purity: ★★★☆☆)
Fung has been a competent mayor who has turned around the city of Cranston, RI. Slashing spending to balance the budget, Fung is a committed fiscal conservative who successfully reformed the city's pension program to save taxpayers money, but little else is known about his positions on other issues, particularly national issues like foreign policy. The first Asian American mayor in the state, Fung might also help the GOP's image with minority groups.
My Pick: Colleen Conley

Tennessee:
(Very high priority for us)
Potential Liberty Candidates:
1. Rep. Jimmy Duncan (chances: ★★★☆☆ purity: ★★★☆☆)
Duncan has been one of the more libertarian members of Congress along with Ron Paul, though he is not a strict constitutionalist. A principled opponent of the war, federal spending, bailouts, taxes, and gun control, Duncan has a more mixed record on civil liberties and the Drug War, and supports campaign finance regulations. He might be a formidable candidate, especially since polls show Bob Corker very vulnerable to a primary challenge. However, the one wrench that could be thrown into the gears is if the very popular former Governor Phil Bredesen jumps into the race on the Democratic side. Bredesen is polling well against potential Republicans for the Senate race, and he would be a tough candidate to beat, but it is red Tennessee we're talking about, after all.
2. State Sen. Mae Beavers (chances: ★★★☆☆ purity: ★★★★★)
Republican Liberty Caucus member Mae Beavers would probably be the ideal candidate to run. While Duncan's libertarian streak is seen as more liberal, Beavers's libertarian streak is seen as more conservative. She could fill the role of the conservative challenger to Bob Corker that Republican primary voters are looking for. She's a fierce anti-spending/anti-tax official who has crusaded against a state income tax, and who has vocally fought for Tennessee's 10th amendment state rights. As a smart, well-liked woman, she would definitely help the GOP's image. She just needs to be persuaded to throw her hat into the ring.
3. Madison County Commissioner Adrian Eddleman (chances: ★★☆☆☆ purity: ★★★★★)
Definitely a strict constitutionalist and a Ron Paul Republican, Eddleman calls himself a “Jeffersonian,” and his website touts his originalist interpretation of the Constitution, the importance of the 10th amendment, his support for sound money, and his opposition to all manner of government taxes and programs. Young, smart, eloquent, and polished, his real struggle would be getting his name better known. Either Beavers or Eddleman would make an ideal candidate for this Senate seat.
4. Pro-Wrestler Glenn “Kane” Jacobs (chances: ★★☆☆☆ purity: ★★★★★)
Surprisingly well-informed on political and economic issues, this Knoxville resident, self-taught Austrian economist, and Ron Paul Republican at least has very high name recognition. Could he get voters to view him as a serious candidate? Would any of his past performances in the entertainment center be a stumbling block for more conservative, religious voters? Would he even be willing to consider running? We should definitely keep him in mind. If he entered, he could plow his way into a frontrunner position, or remain a fringe candidate—it's hard to tell how it would play out, but he sure has potential.
My Pick: Mae Beavers

Texas:
(Very high priority for us)
1. Rep. Ron Paul (chances: ★★★★☆ purity: ★★★★★)
Polls show Ron Paul tied for first place for the nomination if he wants it, and as a Republican in the general election, he would be sitting pretty in red Texas. It seems, however, he's also likely to run for the presidency in 2012. He's been looking for an opening for a Senate seat for many years now, so he might decide to go with an easier shot and run for Senate this coming year. He could still feasibly run for President throughout 2011, and if it doesn't look like he has a realistic shot at winning the presidential nomination by sometime in January 2012, he could always parachute into the Texas Senate race. Then again, now that he's finally gotten the chairmanship of the House monetary policy subcommittee, maybe he wants to stay there to work on cracking open the Fed, since he now has the power to subpoena Bernanke and other Fed officials. Since this is a race in a red state with liberty leanings, and the race is totally open, we really need to take advantage of this opportunity and get a liberty candidate who is electable into the ring.
2. Former Wharton County GOP Chair Debra Medina (chances: ★★☆☆☆ purity: ★★★★★)
She gained national notoriety when she gave a stellar performance in the 2010 Republican gubernatorial primary debate with incumbent Gov. Perry and challenger Sen. Hutchison, subsequently tripling her support and going from a longshot to a major contender in just a few weeks. However, her numbers then imploded after she did not strongly enough repudiate 9/11 Trutherism on Glenn Beck's radio program. While having a healthy name recognition level now, she came out of the race tarnished. If she can rehabilitate her image, run, and win this race, she would be a fantastic constitutionalist US Senator however.
3. Dallas Mavericks Owner Mark Cuban (chances: ★★★☆☆ purity: ★★★☆☆)
Due to his billion dollar fortune, Cuban could instantly become one of the frontrunners for the Republican nomination if he wanted to wade into the race. His rowdy personality and investigations for insider trading would be a liability, but he is a smart guy and could potentially dominate the debates. A self-professed individualist, libertarian, and fan of Ayn Rand, he's still no Ron Paul: he's donated to the campaigns of Democrats, moderate Republicans, and tried to get Michael Bloomberg into the 2008 presidential race. Yet, I'm sure he would be one of the better members of the US Senate if elected.
4. Whole Foods CEO John Mackey (chances: ★★★☆☆ purity: ★★★★★)
With a net worth of $1 billion, Mackey would be another formidable candidate with the ability to self fund his campaign if he wished, though his popularity within libertarian circles would surely provide him with all the fundraising he needed, if he wished to make a go for it. He hasn't hinted that he's interested in the Senate seat, but he's become quite active in politics. His business, a Fortune 500 company that's been listed as one of the 25 best companies to work for, is a great record to run on.
5. State Land Commissioner Jerry Patterson (chances: ★★★☆☆ purity: ★★★★☆)
Described as a champion of “individual freedom” and the Constitution, Commissioner Patterson might be a good guy to have in the race. Atop three terms as Commissioner, Patterson also has six years as a state senator under his belt, and attained the rank of Lt. Col. in the US Marine Corps. As a state senator, he helped get a concealed handgun law and some other important legislation passed, and was honored in 2007 as “Texan of the Year”. He definitely has a lot to run on, and would be pretty good on the issues.
6. Dr. Robert Paul (chances: ★★☆☆☆ purity: ★★★★★)
There have been small hints here and there in the past that Ron Paul's other son, Texas doctor Robert Paul (just as libertarian of a Republican as his brother and father), might also have the itch to get into electoral politics. He proved he could give a good speech and had a good grasp of the issues, while he was campaigning for his dad in 2008. Could he go straight to the US Senate with no prior political office in Texas, though? Rand pulled it off because Kentucky is a small state where you can meet a large percent of the voters personally, and because there was such a small field of serious candidates. Texas, however, is like a country unto itself, and the field of potential candidates is chalk full of prior office holders. At the very least, he would have the advantage of the well-known Paul name. Perhaps Robert would be better off trying for a smaller seat first (maybe even his dad's House seat, if Ron Paul should get elected to the presidency or Senate, or if he should retire).
7. State Sen. Mary Lou Serafine (chances: ★★☆☆☆ purity: ★★★★★)
Serafine is an articulate libertarian Republican who speaks strongly about individual freedom and private property rights. She's solid on the issues and has a good electoral record to run on.
8. State Rep. David Simpson (chances: ★★☆☆☆ purity: ★★★★★)
Simpson would be an excellent liberty candidate for the Senate. He's a vocal advocate of election transparency, protecting private property rights from eminent domain, a free market approach to energy and health care, defending gun rights, defending first amendment rights, cutting spending and taxes, and maintaining Texas's state sovereignty. An adept candidate, Simpson might have a good shot at the seat, if he's interested.
9. State Rep. Jodie Laubenberg (chances: ★★☆☆☆ purity: ★★★★☆)
State legislator and Republican Liberty Caucus member Jodie Laubenberg would be another potentially good liberty candidate for this seat. Having authored legislation that seeks to relase Texans from being mandated into buying health insurance, and legislation that would require greater consensus before new taxes can be passed, she would fit right in as a Tea Party candidate. There's been no indication that she's interested in seeking this seat, but if none of the above can be drawn into the race, perhaps someone should talk to her.
10. State Rep. Ken Paxton (chances: ★★☆☆☆ purity: ★★★★☆)
Another Republican Liberty Caucus adherent and Tea Partier is state legislator Ken Paxton, known as a vocal proponent of “property rights” and “state sovereignty.” He'd be great to have in the US Senate, though he himself has said he's really interested in going to the state senate first.
11. State Rep. Debbie Riddle (chances: ★★☆☆☆ purity: ★★★★☆)
Debbie Riddle is a good liberty candidate, whose career has been marked by her fight to cap and repeal taxes, cut welfare handouts, and limit government spending. She hasn't made noise about being interested in higher office, but she's someone else we should keep in mind.
12. Entertainer Jimmie Vaughan (chances: ★☆☆☆☆ purity: ★★★★★)
A strong Ron Paul supporter, Dallas native Jimmie Vaughan has some level of name recognition as a Grammy-winning popular musician and singer. Vaughan hasn't held office before, but he's spoken out on issues and given speeches in support of Ron Paul's 2008 presidential campaign. Perhaps he'd be willing to take a crack at it, but would others take him seriously as a candidate?
13. Harris County Tax Assessor Paul Bettencourt (chances: ★☆☆☆☆ purity: ★★★★★)
Bettencourt, a Republican Liberty Caucus member, has made a career out of fighting the burden of high property taxes and helping citizens keep more of their own money. He's gotten elected as the Harris County tax assessor/collector, and he could potentially use that post a jumping board to higher office, though US Senate might still be a bit out of his reach.
My Pick: John Mackey

[aspiringconstitutionalist]

Utah:
(Slightly high priority for us)
Potential Liberty Candidates:
1. Rep. Jason Chaffetz (chances: ★★★★☆ purity: ★★★☆☆)
Chaffetz is no libertarian, but he is strongly liberty oriented. A fierce fiscal hawk, his foreign policy views aren't exactly non-interventionist, but he has no qualms about hunting for waste/fraud/abuse in the Pentagon budget, and he vocally questions Iraq/Afghanistan policy. Chaffetz is one of the names that has been floated as a more conservative challenger to moderate, bailout-supporting, incumbent Republican Sen. Orrin Hatch. In 2010, Hatch's colleague Bob Bennett was defeated in the GOP primary by liberty candidate Mike Lee. 2012 doesn't look like it's shaping up to be much different from 2010. The Tea Party is still strong, loud, and angry. Hatch is very vulnerable, and in red Utah, whoever wins the GOP primary is pretty much guaranteed the general election victory. This is a prime location for us to elect a liberty candidate.
2. State Sen. Daniel Thatcher (chances: ★★★☆☆ purity: ★★★★★)
Thatcher is a great liberty candidate, who values the free market and isn't afraid to oppose the big-government policies of both parties, including Bush's No Child Left Behind. If someone like Chaffetz doesn't run, Thatcher could feasibly catch on as a Tea Party challenger to Hatch.
3. State Rep. Ken Ivory (chances: ★★★☆☆ purity: ★★★★★)
Ivory understands the role of government and values individual liberty. He's also a possible candidate who could out-maneuver the moderate Hatch and go on to win the general election.
4. State Rep. Curt Oda (chances: ★★☆☆☆ purity: ★★★★☆)
An advocate of freedom and limited government, this Republican Liberty Caucus member got a lot of negative national attention when he proposed changing Utah's animal cruelty laws to allow the killing of feral rodents. While most of us would agree that this should be allowed, this issue might become a liability for him if national attention was refocused on him. He hasn't shown any interest in running for the US Senate, but he's at least one possibility.
5. Big Water Mayor Willy Marshall (chances: ★☆☆☆☆ purity: ★★★★★)
Willy Marshall, mayor of Big Water, Utah, deserves mention for his strong libertarian views, but the fact that he is openly gay (in conservative, Mormon land) and that he is of the Libertarian Party (not the GOP) leaves him with very little chance to win in a Republican primary against an incumbent Senator. Plus, Marshall has never given indication he's interested in higher office.
My Pick: Jason Chaffetz

Vermont:
(Very low priority for us)
Potential Liberty Candidates:
1. State Human Services Board Member Gary Richardson (chances: ★☆☆☆☆ purity: ★★★★☆)
Author and local official Gary Richardson would stand almost no chance at winning, but he might consider putting his name on the ballot to give liberty Republicans an option. Incumbent independent-Democratic Sen. Bernie Sanders will probably cruise to reelection, and if Republican former Gov. Jim Douglas enters the Republican primary, the nomination is probably Douglas's for the taking. Nevertheless, perhaps a Richardson candidacy could at least stoke some healthy debates about the issues.
My Pick: Gary Richardson

Virginia:
(Slightly high priority for us)
Potential Liberty Candidates:
1. Former Virginia Tea Party Patriots Chair Jamie Radtke (chances: ★★☆☆☆ purity: ★★★★★)
It will be an uphill battle for whoever tries to challenge former Sen. George Allen in the Republican primary, and with Virginia trending more purple in recent years, the general election won't be a complete cakewalk either, but a liberty candidate can be elected here, especially since incumbent Sen. Jim Webb will not be on the ballot in November of 2012. Radtke is an official candidate, and will likely have most of the support of the Tea Party behind her. Whether or not she can beat Allen in the primary is the real problem. As far as liberty candidates go, Radtke seems to be one of us—she goes beyond the typical fiscal hawk line and talks about things like the Federal Reserve. She's definitely someone we could get behind.
2. The Daily Caller Editor Tucker Carlson (chances: ★★☆☆☆ purity: ★★★★☆)
This former FOX/CNN/MSNBC talk show host, current editor of The Daily Caller, and Alexandria resident has always had a libertarian bent, and has become more libertarian in the past few years. He gave support to Ron Paul for President in 2008 and has hinted at supporting Gary Johnson for President for 2012. He supported Bush's foreign policy in the early part of the 2000's, but has since completely turned against the wars. He certainly has the charisma, connections, and money to launch a successful campaign, but the question is whether he has the time or desire to do so.
3. Prof. Walter Williams (chances: ★★☆☆☆ purity: ★★★★☆)
Syndicated columnist and George Mason University prof Walter Williams is an eloquent defender of free markets and individual liberty. While getting up there in age, Williams has the advantage of being well-versed in the important issues of the day. Having an African American on the ticket would also help the GOP convey a more diverse image. Williams has given thought to running for office before, but has never yet made the leap. Perhaps, if the need arises, we should give him some encouragement.
4. Future of Freedom Foundation President Jacob Hornberger (chances: ★★☆☆☆ purity: ★★★★★)
Hornberger, a libertarian and Austrian economist, is an incredibly intelligent and principled proponent of the principles of liberty. As someone with military experience, a law degree, and running a large educational foundation, he also has some good qualities for being elected to public office. He ran as an independent candidate for US Senate in Virginia in 2002, gaining 7.1% of the general election vote (respectable for a non-major party candidate). Perhaps he'd be willing to try again on the Republican ticket. If someone like Radtke implodes or fails to take off, someone like Hornberger would be a great backup candidate.
5. Retired USAF Lt. Col. Karen Kwiatkowski (chances: ★☆☆☆☆ purity: ★★★★★)
Kwiatkowski is a smart woman with extensive experience in the military, the Pentagon, and the NSA, though her primary focus on opposing Bush's wars and the neoconservative foreign policy might be unappealing for a traditionally conservative electorate in Virginia. She is currently a member of the Libertarian Party, but she might be willing to run as a libertarian Republican, though she has never indicated an intention to try for elected office.
My Pick: Jamie Radtke

Washington:
(Very high priority for us)
Potential Liberty Candidates:
1. Former NFL player Clint Didier (chances: ★★★☆☆ purity: ★★★★★)
A Ron Paul Republican through and through, Tea Partier Clint Didier is making great headway in the Washington Senate race and has a very realistic shot at winning the nomination. Polls show incumbent Democratic Sen. Maria Cantwell leading in general election matchups with other Republicans, but not by an insurmountable margin. Didier ran a great campaign for Washington's other open Senate seat in 2010 and came in just behind neocon Republican Dino Rossi. With Rossi not in this year's race, Didier is the man to get behind.
2. State Supreme Court Justice Richard Sanders (chances: ★★☆☆☆ purity: ★★★★★)
As one of the most libertarian court officials in the country, Justice Sanders would be a fascinating liberty candidate to have run. If something should happen to Didier's bid, we might want to beckon Sanders into the race.
My Pick: Clint Didier

West Virginia:
(Very low priority for us)
Potential Liberty Candidates:
1. Monongalia County GOP Executive Committeeman Kevin Patrick (chances: ☆☆☆☆☆ purity: ★★★★★)
Patrick, a committed libertarian and Ron Paul Republican, ran for the House of Delegates in West Virginia in 2010 and won the Republican nomination, but lost the general election in the heavily Democratic district 44. Patrick would stand very little chance of winning the Republican nomination for US Senate, especially if Rep. Shelley Moore Capito gets into the race. Incumbent Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin looks to cruise to reelection in the general election as well.
My Pick: Kevin Patrick

Wisconsin:
(Slightly low priority for us)
Potential Liberty Candidates:
1. State Sen. Frank Lasee (chances: ★★☆☆☆ purity: ★★★★★)
Lasee has been a tireless advocate for taxpayers and for limited government. He's a popular and eloquent politician, and he could feasibly win the Republican nomination (assuming Rep. Paul Ryan doesn't try for it, in which case Ryan has a lock on it), though incumbent Democratic Sen. Herb Kohl remains quite popular, heading into the general election.
2. State Sen. Joe Liebham (chances: ★★☆☆☆ purity: ★★★★☆)
Liebham is a fairly liberty-oriented official, with one major exception being his enthusiasm for increasing government handouts to military veterans.
3. Former Tomah Mayor Ed Thompson (chances: ★☆☆☆☆ purity: ★★★★★)
The popular and affable former mayor of Tomah, Ed Thompson, might be a good pick for the Senate seat as well. The brother of former Governor and 2008 presidential candidate Tommy Thompson, Ed is a businessman who won his first political office unexpectedly, when, without his knowledge, the citizens of Tomah waged a write-in campaign to elect him to the city council. After serving two years on the council, he ran against an incumbent mayor and won with two thirds of the vote. In 2010, he lost a very close race for state senator as a Republican, losing by about half a percent. In 2002, Ed had made history by garnerning 11% of the general election vote while running as the Libertarian nominee. Whether Ed would have the desire to run for US Senate as he is recovering from pancreatic cancer is up for question, but the Thompson name is well respected in Wisconsin and would be a great advantage. (There is also some talk that his brother Tommy might run for Senate, which would most likely keep Ed out of the race.)
My Pick: Frank Lasee

Wyoming:
(Slightly low priority for us)
Potential Liberty Candidates:
1. State Sen. Cale Case (chances: ★★☆☆☆ purity: ★★★★★)
Cale Case is an exemplary libertarian Republican and Ron Paul endorser. He's been elected and reelected to the state legislature for nearly two decades, first as a state representative in 1994, and as a state senator since 1998. Holding a PhD in economics, this free marketeer is a fantastic speaker and debater. He is known for defending the freedom of people to do things that he finds personally repugnant. For instance: while a deeply religious man, he always votes against anti-gay legislation, and though he can't stand cigarette smoke, he has continually defended the right of business owners to allow smoking in their establishments. Case would be a terrific liberty candidate, but getting through the primary against incumbent Republican Sen. John Barrasso would be very difficult.
2. State Rep. Bob Brechtel (chances: ★☆☆☆☆ purity: ★★★★★)
A pro-limited government and anti-tax Republican, Brechtel is another good liberty candidate we could potentially run for this Senate seat, if he's interested in it.
3. State Rep. Frank Peasley (chances: ★☆☆☆☆ purity: ★★★★★)
Ditto to the above.
4. State Rep. Sue Wallis (chances: ★☆☆☆☆ purity: ★★★★★)
Ditto to the above.
5. State Rep. Gerald Gay (chances: ★☆☆☆☆ purity: ★★★★★)
While principled and well-intentioned, Rep. Gay sometimes fails to come across as a serious candidate, making videos of himself “shootin' at socialism and the lefty agenda” or voicing real concerns about sharia law coming to the United States.
My Pick: Cale Case

[malkusm]

Damn, thanks a lot for all the work! You have earned my +rep. I'd have to look through these more carefully, as I might have a few comments on your ratings. (For example: Mattie Fein's platform when she ran for Congress in 2010 was not very libertarian....I don't think we can give her 5 stars for purity for simply being married to Bruce.)

[aspiringconstitutionalist]

Damn, thanks a lot for all the work! You have earned my +rep. I'd have to look through these more carefully, as I might have a few comments on your ratings. (For example: Mattie Fein's platform when she ran for Congress in 2010 was not very libertarian....I don't think we can give her 5 stars for purity for simply being married to Bruce.)

Oh, I'd appreciate you looking over it! I only devoted about 5-10 minutes of research to each potential candidate's political record, so I'm sure I overlooked some parts of their political beliefs or records and some of these ratings need to be amended.

[Maximus]

This thread is a must read!

Very high states: Arizona, Indiana, Michigan, Missouri, New Mexico, North Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Washington.

I would place Utah on the "very high list" as well after what happened there in 2010. This is doable! Freedom!

[Thomas]

wow! this is amazing, reading now...I have a fierce loyalty to Sam Rohrer in PA...doesn't Flake support the Patriot Act?

[William R]

Flake is horrible on immigration. He still defends his amnesty push in 2006-7

[libertybrewcity]

This is an amazing post. Washington should not be a high priority though!

STICKY +1

[matt0611]

Wow, great work. This should definitely be stickied.

[Maximus]

This should be moved to the main forum, because its awesome

[sarahdeez]

The Tegerdines are moving to TX this month. He will not be running in MS. I guess he could establish residency in TX in time for the election. I could ask him but I'm sure he doesnt know about running at this time. I hope he will find a group of supporters in TX and run. I like him.

[Son of Detroit]

Drew Carey for Senate!

[aspiringconstitutionalist]

Drew Carey for Senate!

+2012

[Thomas]

as a movement, we really need to prioritize better next time

[Maximus]

as a movement, we really need to prioritize better next time

That's what this thread is about, I think this gives us a great visual and will allow us to strategize our move for 2012.

The key is to find races in states that don't cost as much to run in. This is why Schiff is low priority compared to say North Dakota. One million in North Dakota goes a lot further than Connecticutt, we get way more bang for the buck for the same vote in the Senate chamber.

This is why in states like California, we will probably have to count on libertarian billionaires, Whitman spent three million A WEEK and still lost to Jerry Brown. We can't afford that. All the high priority states that were mentioned have favorable media markets, or favorable conditions if we can get past the primary. That is key.

[eduardo89]

I'd love Drew Carey to run! How can we contact him and draft him?

[Gage]

Please format the post better, i.e. bold names so it isn't just a wall of text.

[RP4EVER]

Please consider adding Bob Marshall to the list for Virginia. While Delegate Marshall is a Social Conservative, he is truly an Economic Libertarian, being the among the reasons that Virginia's lawsuit against Obamacare won. Del. Marshall sponsored and managed to get passed in both houses and signed by our Governor the Virginia Healthcare Freedom Act.

http://delegatebob.com/

[aspiringconstitutionalist]

I'd love Drew Carey to run! How can we contact him and draft him?

I know! Wouldn't he be great in a debate???
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4jih2MBH3Wg


We can urge Drew Carey to run for Senate in Ohio by flooding his Twitter (drewfromtv) with messages of support. Perhaps something like:
"@drewfromtv Drew! Ohio needs you! Please run for Senate in 2012!"

He's an avid Tweeter, so he'll definitely notice it if he gets enough tweets.

He also has a blog that he updates very infrequently at http://drewfromtv.blogspot.com/. We could try leaving comments there as well.

[eduardo89]

I tweeted Drew Carey, I hope you all do the same! He'd make an amazing Senator IMO

[Imperial]

In Florida, two very establishment-y candidates are also quite libertarian. Representative Cornelius Harvey McGuiddy IV (also known as Connie Mack) and Senate President? Mike Haridopolos, who both used to run the Freedom Caucus in the Florida Senate, are likely to run for Nelson's seat.

[aspiringconstitutionalist]

Oh, as for whether Drew Carey has a residency in Ohio, he does own a house in Cleveland: http://blog.cleveland.com/metro/2010...veland_ci.html

[ronpaulhawaii]

stuck, and shared with Gigi @ www.liberty-candidates.org

Thanks

+rep

[invisible]

What about Jim Guest in MO? Present and former (due to being term limited) state rep, founded Legislators Against Real ID, endorsed Ron Paul in 2007-8, etc.

[LibertyIsGold]

Wargotz will be tough for MD. The insidersaurus rex ad did a lot of damage I think.

[bwlibertyman]

INDIANA. I think we should add Richard Mourdock to liberty candidates for Indiana. Mourdock has already announced that he is running for the senate seat. He is against tarp and the bailouts. His website doesn't talk much about foreign policy and other issues. I sent an email asking about the patriot act and foreign policy and balanced budgets and such. I'll report back with responses.

[AJ Antimony]

wow! this is amazing, reading now...I have a fierce loyalty to Sam Rohrer in PA...doesn't Flake support the Patriot Act?

Even though Flake has voted for the Patriot Act, and even though he has been weird on immigration, it is still crystal clear that he has been the #2 libertarian in all of Congress until Amash arrived. Not only has Flake been the #2 libertarian, he compiled this record almost entirely during a Republican administration! Could we find a more pure candidate in Arizona? Sure, but considering all of Flake's electoral advantages, I would EASILY give up 1% of libertarian purity for all of the advantages he has as an incumbent congressman, name recognition, money, and essentially being 'next in line.'