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Thread: Why lumber prices are so jacked:

  1. #1

    Thumbs down Why lumber prices are so jacked:

    They "forgot" to mention the Federal Reserve's role in all of this:







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  3. #2
    “The right to life is the source of all rights—and the right to property is their only implementation. Without property rights, no other rights are possible. Since man has to sustain his life by his own effort, the man who has no right to the product of his effort has no means to sustain his life. The man who produces while others dispose of his product, is a slave.”

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  4. #3
    I hope it keeps going up. Bought some calls last week
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  5. #4
    Nobody mentioned tariffs.....

  6. #5
    Quote Originally Posted by tod evans View Post
    Nobody mentioned tariffs.....
    I'm not 100% certain on this but I think that the tariffs on Canadian lumber ended when Trump re-signed NAFTA.
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  7. #6
    Quote Originally Posted by Matt Collins View Post
    They "forgot" to mention the Federal Reserve's role in all of this:

    LOL. They tried to say that too much timber is the cause. Who do they think they are fooling?

    They did start with the real cause, which is increased demand for finished lumber. They hinted at another problem, which is consolidation of the lumber industry which has limited competition, thus the middle men are acting as oligopolies and extracting maximum profit.
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  8. #7
    Quote Originally Posted by tod evans View Post
    Nobody mentioned tariffs.....
    That may apply on imports.

    But as far as demand for lumber, they didn't mention exports. You are competing with China for lumber, and they may have control of some of the lumber companies.

    To their credit, they did mention that COVID created excess demand so that all of these restaurants can build temporary outside structures to comply with mandates. Blame government there. They didn't mention how many businesses in cities have had to purchase lumber to ward off rioters and looters (or the aftermath). Blame government again, for zero enforcement on those crimes.
    "Foreign aid is taking money from the poor people of a rich country, and giving it to the rich people of a poor country." - Ron Paul
    "Beware the Military-Industrial-Financial-Corporate-Internet-Media-Government Complex." - B4L update of General Dwight D. Eisenhower
    "Debt is the drug, Wall St. Banksters are the dealers, and politicians are the addicts." - B4L
    "Totally free immigration? I've never taken that position. I believe in national sovereignty." - Ron Paul
    They are what they hate.” - B4L


    The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own, and do not represent this forum or any other entities or persons.

  9. #8
    Once I start consuming the supply of timber in firewood and for smoke signals @Danke will have to build his next hut on the prairie of Nutria skins imported from the Bayou.
    Do something Danke



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  11. #9
    Holding off on all the projects I wanted to do this year. Maybe next year.
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  12. #10
    Had timber on my land that I had been eyeing for harvest since 2003.

    Had it cleared in Feb.

    Tidy profit made.
    Where they have burned books, they will end in burning human beings. - Heinrich Heine 1823

  13. #11
    Prices on all construction materials are through the roof. Was going to put new flooring on porch. Decided just to flip, sand and stain. Will have to have a dozen boards cut to size (not typical decking measurement) but a local mill can do that for me.

  14. #12

  15. #13
    Quote Originally Posted by Brian4Liberty View Post
    That may apply on imports.

    But as far as demand for lumber, they didn't mention exports. You are competing with China for lumber, and they may have control of some of the lumber companies.

    To their credit, they did mention that COVID created excess demand so that all of these restaurants can build temporary outside structures to comply with mandates. Blame government there. They didn't mention how many businesses in cities have had to purchase lumber to ward off rioters and looters (or the aftermath). Blame government again, for zero enforcement on those crimes.
    Softwood is a different market than hardwood.

    I buy hardwood and finish grade plywood wholesale and have for decades, they're up but up in line with cost of living.

    "Baltic Birch" is a commodity that I keep up on because I buy quite a bit of it, it's a Russian import, it's up about $1.25 per sheet from last summer whereas OSB made domestically is almost triple. (I don't buy OSB wholesale)

    The tariffs did more to increase the cost of Baltic Birch than anything over the last several decades.

    Domestic hardwood is still pretty stable and so are South American and African hardwoods.

    From my vantage point it looks like GP, Weyerhaeuser and the like are milking covid for every red cent they can...

    Good thing is the Maw-n-Paw bandsaw mills can make money at these prices selling for cash.

  16. #14
    Sort of like Coal,, much being sold offshore.

    But the mills are getting busy..
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  17. #15
    Quote Originally Posted by tod evans View Post
    ...
    From my vantage point it looks like GP, Weyerhaeuser and the like are milking covid for every red cent they can...
    ...
    No doubt. Oligopoly and elimination of competition allows that.
    "Foreign aid is taking money from the poor people of a rich country, and giving it to the rich people of a poor country." - Ron Paul
    "Beware the Military-Industrial-Financial-Corporate-Internet-Media-Government Complex." - B4L update of General Dwight D. Eisenhower
    "Debt is the drug, Wall St. Banksters are the dealers, and politicians are the addicts." - B4L
    "Totally free immigration? I've never taken that position. I believe in national sovereignty." - Ron Paul
    They are what they hate.” - B4L


    The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own, and do not represent this forum or any other entities or persons.

  18. #16



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  20. #17
    Quote Originally Posted by tod evans View Post
    Did the boys from Enron get jobs in the lumber industry?
    "Foreign aid is taking money from the poor people of a rich country, and giving it to the rich people of a poor country." - Ron Paul
    "Beware the Military-Industrial-Financial-Corporate-Internet-Media-Government Complex." - B4L update of General Dwight D. Eisenhower
    "Debt is the drug, Wall St. Banksters are the dealers, and politicians are the addicts." - B4L
    "Totally free immigration? I've never taken that position. I believe in national sovereignty." - Ron Paul
    They are what they hate.” - B4L


    The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own, and do not represent this forum or any other entities or persons.

  21. #18
    Lumber Prices Soar, But Logs Are Still Dirt Cheap

    (Bloomberg) -- Lumber prices have soared to records. Demand for wood is skyrocketing. The shares of wood suppliers are surging.

    And yet, trees themselves are dirt cheap in places like Louisiana, where timber supplies are plentiful.

    The so-called stumpage fee, or what lumber companies pay to land owners for trees, for Louisiana pine sawtimber on March 31 was $22.75 per short ton, according to the latest data from price provider TimberMart-South. That’s the lowest since 2011.

    An abundance of harvest-ready trees has kept stumpage fees extremely low across the U.S. South, home to half of the country’s production. Meanwhile, lumber futures are up 85% in 2021 because of soaring demand. Sawmills profit from the premium lumber commands over the stumpage fee -- think of it like the lumber crack spread.

    Those margins are exploding. The spread between futures and stumpage for Louisiana pine, for example, has more than doubled just this year, topping $1,100 per 1,000 board feet.

    In Alabama, the stumpage fees are slightly higher than Louisiana at $23.34 per short ton. But they’ve barely budged since 2016 and are half the price fetched in 2005.

    In the futures market, lumber touched a record $1,326.70 per 1,000 board feet on Monday.

    That sent the spread between futures and the Louisiana stumpage fee higher than $1,144 per 1,000 board feet on Monday, based on a calculation that assumes 8 short tons of logs per 1,000 board feet.
    ...
    More: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/lumbe...100000412.html
    "Foreign aid is taking money from the poor people of a rich country, and giving it to the rich people of a poor country." - Ron Paul
    "Beware the Military-Industrial-Financial-Corporate-Internet-Media-Government Complex." - B4L update of General Dwight D. Eisenhower
    "Debt is the drug, Wall St. Banksters are the dealers, and politicians are the addicts." - B4L
    "Totally free immigration? I've never taken that position. I believe in national sovereignty." - Ron Paul
    They are what they hate.” - B4L


    The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own, and do not represent this forum or any other entities or persons.

  22. #19
    Soaring lumber prices add $36,000 to the cost of a new home, and a fierce land grab is only making it worse

    Published Fri, Apr 30 2021
    Key Points

    • The surge in lumber prices in the past year has added $35,872 to the price of an average new single-family home and $12,966 to the market value of an average new multifamily home, according to the NAHB.
    • “We have seen, over the last four or five months, what I have never seen in my career before, is lumber to move to the level it has,” said Sheryl Palmer, CEO of Taylor Morrison Home.
    • New lot supply is down 20% from a year ago, according to Zonda.


    cnbc.com/2021/04/30/soaring-lumber-prices-add-36000-to-the-cost-of-a-new-home.html

  23. #20


    One of the most important things we've learned over the past year is the vulnerability of global supply chains. Most notably, supply disruptions of lumber have catapulted prices to the moon.

    The narrative touted in the public domain is that COVID-19 sparked a dramatic underestimate in capacity by sawmills early in the pandemic as the Federal Reserve slashed interest rates to zero, sparking a housing boom. The influx of demand outpaced supply and has caused lumber prices to jump 340% from a year ago, according to Random Lengths.

    In terms of output, the lumber industry is controlled by just a handful of firms, including Weyerhaeuser Co., Georgia-Pacific LLC, West Fraser Timber Co., Ltd., among others, which makes it easier for capacity to be controlled.

    Maybe there's more to the lumber story that we're not being told and should be investigated more in-depth by journalists.

    YouTube account "Ken's Karpentry" recently published a video of "huge quantities" of lumber sitting and not in lumberyards. The exact location of the video is not mentioned but could be near Lyndonville, Vermont.

    The narrator in the video, perhaps it's Ken, but we're not sure, explains that a train depot has been transformed into a makeshift lumber yard. He said train loads of lumber coming out of Canada are offloaded here and then transported by tractor-trailer to lumberyards across the country.

    He said, "I am astounded by how much lumber is here, and I am wondering why there is such a problem at lumber yards." He added the facility stretches 3/8 of a mile.

    The video has more than 300,000 views and over 1,300 comments in just a few weeks.

    One person said, "Gee, could it be to keep the price gouging and profits up?? This whole excuse that "it's due to covid" b*llsh!t has got to stop!"

    "It's too bad there are no investigative reporters left in the world. This lumber story needs to be investigated and exposed," some else said.

    Another person said:

    "This is what happens when a few companies own the entire market."

    And this person makes an interesting point:

    "There is no lumber shortage. It's just Weyerhouse and GP wanting to drive up profits."

    So could the lumber industry, controlled just by a few players, be pulling the playbook straight out of the diamond industry to limit supply to drive up prices?

    https://www.zerohedge.com/commoditie...r-just-stacked
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  24. #21
    I just recently put up a nwe 10x10 deck. I paid almost twice as much for lumber to build a 10x10 deck than I did to build a 20x 15 deck....I built 20x15 deck 2 years ago.

  25. #22
    I don't suppose that it could be all the Stimulus Money that was printed made the dollar worthless.

    that is just "Crazy Talk".
    Liberty is lost through complacency and a subservient mindset. When we accept or even welcome automobile checkpoints, random searches, mandatory identification cards, and paramilitary police in our streets, we have lost a vital part of our American heritage. America was born of protest, revolution, and mistrust of government. Subservient societies neither maintain nor deserve freedom for long.
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    Registered Ron Paul supporter # 2202
    It's all about Freedom

  26. #23
    15 BILLION board feet of softwood must be harvested due to last years fires. (2 min in if you don't want to watch the video.)


  27. #24
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  29. #25
    Quote Originally Posted by Brian4Liberty View Post
    Lumber Prices Soar, But Logs Are Still Dirt Cheap
    Where they have burned books, they will end in burning human beings. - Heinrich Heine 1823

  30. #26
    Quote Originally Posted by Anti Federalist View Post
    Reported for violating site guidelines against pornographic material
    It's all about taking action and not being lazy. So you do the work, whether it's fitness or whatever. It's about getting up, motivating yourself and just doing it.
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    Donald Trump / Rand Paul (Vice Pres) 2016!!!!

  31. #27
    Quote Originally Posted by TheTexan View Post
    Reported for violating site guidelines against pornographic material
    won’t matter. I have reported you many times, and you are still here.
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  32. #28
    Quote Originally Posted by Anti Federalist View Post

  33. #29
    When Obama was in office fuel prices doubled then so did a lb of bacon which never went down when fuel did so I surmise these are the new lumber prices .
    Do something Danke

  34. #30
    Quote Originally Posted by Anti Federalist View Post
    I already got one.
    Pfizer Macht Frei!

    Openly Straight Man, Danke, Awarded Top Rated Influencer. Community Standards Enforcer.


    Quiz: Test Your "Income" Tax IQ!

    Short Income Tax Video

    The Income Tax Is An Excise, And Excise Taxes Are Privilege Taxes

    The Federalist Papers, No. 15:

    Except as to the rule of appointment, the United States have an indefinite discretion to make requisitions for men and money; but they have no authority to raise either by regulations extending to the individual citizens of America.



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