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Thread: U.S. Debt Crisis May Cause ‘Fall of Rome’ Scenario

  1. #1

    U.S. Debt Crisis May Cause ‘Fall of Rome’ Scenario

    U.S. Debt Crisis May Cause ‘Fall of Rome’ Scenario

    Sept. 23 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. budget deficits will continue to pile up in the next decade, eventually reaching an unsustainable level that may result in an economic collapse, according to Richard Duncan, author of “The Dollar Crisis.”

    The U.S. has little chance of resolving its deteriorating financial position because the manufacturing industry continues to shrink, leaving the nation with few goods to export, said Duncan, now at Singapore-based Blackhorse Asset Management.

    In “The Dollar Crisis,” first published in 2003, Duncan argued that persistent current account deficits by the U.S. were creating an unsustainable boom in global credit that was destined to break down, resulting in a worldwide recession.

    “The bad news is at the end of a 10-year period we’re still not going to have fixed the problem,” Duncan said in an interview in Hong Kong yesterday. “Eventually it will lead to high rates of inflation well down the line and really destabilize things to the point where there may be irreparable damage. A kind of ‘Fall of Rome’ scenario.”

    The federal budget deficit will total $1.6 trillion this year, while combined shortfalls are forecast to total $9.05 trillion in the next 10 years, according to projections from the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office.

    The U.S. has run a current account deficit every year since 1982 except one,

    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...d=aJ6jnKWHrQgI



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  3. #2

    Question Rome

    You make the collapse of America sound like a bad thing. Whereas I believe it is a natural occurance that strengthens mankind in the long run.

  4. #3
    Quote Originally Posted by Kasado View Post
    You make the collapse of America sound like a bad thing. Whereas I believe it is a natural occurance that strengthens mankind in the long run.
    But far from an ideal or inevitable path for most of us that would rather turn this ship around before the iceberg.

    And those comments weren't from bobby, he was posting a Bloomberg article.
    "I'm not just trying to win or get elected. I am trying to change the course of history" - Ron Paul

  5. #4
    Quote Originally Posted by Kasado View Post
    You make the collapse of America sound like a bad thing. Whereas I believe it is a natural occurance that strengthens mankind in the long run.
    That's only if things change. But they won't. It will bring on more government, more regulation, more of the same. Because 99% of the population is too fat dumb and lazy to do it on their own. So they suck the life out of those who produce by moaning to the dip$#@! politicians to take care of them. Who in turn promise, tax,
    and regulate until it chokes off the economy.They don't get that it's like Chinese finger cuffs, the harder you pull (more regulation/taxation) the tighter it wraps around the fingers (more it chokes of the economy).
    Gold is the money of kings, silver the money of gentlemen, barter the money of peasants and debt the money of slaves.

  6. #5

    RomeFall

    All empires collapse.
    America is not to large to fail and will follow all the once great cultures that came before, it's inevitable. We can try to mitagate and direct its collapse, but our large size and centralized government will hasten it.
    ArchPaul is wrong. He/She just does'nt have enough imagination to envision just how bad it can get.

    Rule #1
    Change happens!!

  7. #6
    Quote Originally Posted by Kasado View Post
    All empires collapse.
    America is not to large to fail and will follow all the once great cultures that came before, it's inevitable. We can try to mitagate and direct its collapse, but our large size and centralized government will hasten it.
    ArchPaul is wrong. He/She just does'nt have enough imagination to envision just how bad it can get.

    Rule #1
    Change happens!!
    We might not like the change we get.

  8. #7
    Quote Originally Posted by stag15 View Post
    We might not like the change we get.
    It is also an opprotunity to implement the changes we seek, a representative government under a good constitution, with some ammendments such as enumerating powers under general welfare and interstate commerces. Add to that term limits and the representative citizen legislatures from thirty-thousand.org.

    If we setup parrallel ecnomony with a focuse on 'slow-money', productivity and non subisdised agriculture with a focus on distribution, perhaps a hook for non-belivers to get edicated, we can turn the predicament of a lot of people in this economy around as soon as the current system faulters.

    I have not given up yet that this will sort out before a lot of people suffer.

  9. #8

    Thumbs up Change

    No one likes change, in fact we are absolutly neurotic in opposition to it. But we as a society have become stagnant. There will be suffering, but thats normal for the rebirthing process.



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  11. #9
    Quote Originally Posted by Kasado View Post
    No one likes change, in fact we are absolutly neurotic in opposition to it. But we as a society have become stagnant. There will be suffering, but thats normal for the rebirthing process.
    But a lot of the suffering could be avoided. There are ways to change the world into a better place without creating disaster.

  12. #10
    Why does the gov keep kicking the can down the road? Why not just absorb some of tough losses now and admit to mistakes?

    Our economy will hurt for a long time to come, but why not lessen the sting now? You know something like not mortgaging our entire future.

  13. #11
    Excerpted from "How the Irish Saved Civilization," by Thomas Cahill:


    pg.11 "On the last, cold day of December in the dying year we count as 406, the river Rhine froze solid, providing the natural bridge that hundreds of thousands of hungry men, women and children had been waiting for. They were the barbari--to the Romans an undistinguished, matted mass of Others, not terrifying, just troublemakers, annoyances, things one would rather not have to deal with--non-Romans. To themselves, they were, presumably, something more, but as the illiterate leave few records, we can only surmise their opinion of themselves.

    Neither the weary, disciplined Roman soldiers, ranked along the west bank, nor the anxious, helter-skelter tribes amassing on the east bank could have been giving much thought to their place in history. But this moment of slack, this relative calm before the pandemonium to follow, gives us the chance to study the actors on both sides of the river and to look backward on what has been and forward to what will be.


    pg. 26: "By the fifth century, in the years before the complete collapse of Roman government, the imperial approach to taxation had produced a caste as hopeless as any in history. Their rapacious exactions, taken wherever and whenever they could, were the direct result of their desperation about their own increasingly unpayable tax bills. As these nerved-up outcasts commenced to prey on whoever was weaker than they, the rich became even richer. The great landowners ate up the little ones, the tax base shrank still further, and the middle classes, never encouraged by the Roman state, began to disappear from the face of the earth. Nor would they return till the appearance of the Italian mercantile families of the high Middle Ages."

    pg. 29: "...Though it is difficult to imagine the Pax Romana lasting as long as it did without the increasing militarization of the Imperium Romanum, the Romans themselves were never happy about their army. It suggested dictatorship, rather than those good old republican values, and they preferred to avert their eyes, keeping themselves carefully ignorant of the army's essential contribution to their well-being. With the moral decay of republican resolve, the army became more and more a reserve of non-Romans, half-Romanized barbarian mercenaries and servants sent in the stead of freemen who couldn't be bothered. In the last days of the empire, men commonly mutilated themselves to escape service, though such a crime was--in theory--punishable by torture and death. Military levies, sent to the great estates, met such resistance that influential landowners were allowed to send money, instead of men, to the army. In 409, faced with an increasingly undefended frontier, the emperor announced the impossible: henceforth, slaves would be permitted, even encouraged, to enlist, and for their service they would receive a bounty and their freedom. By this point, it was sometimes difficult to tell the Romans from the barbarians--at least along the frontier."


    pg. 29: "There are, no doubt, lessons here for the contemporary reader. The changing character of the native population, brought about through unremarked pressures on porous borders; the creation of an increasingly unwieldy and rigid bureaucracy, whose own survival becomes its overriding goal; the despising of the military and the avoidance of service by established families, while its offices present unprecedented opportunity for marginal men to whom its ranks had once been closed; the lip service paid to values long dead; the pretense that we still are what we once were; the increasing concentrations of the populace into richer and poorer by way of a corrupt tax system, and the desperation that inevitably follows; the aggrandizement of executive power at the expense of the legislature; ineffectual legislation promulgated with great show; the moral vocation of the man at the top to maintain order at all costs, while growing blind to the cruel dilemmas of ordinary life--these are all themes with which our world is familiar, nor are they the God-given property of any party or political point of view, even though we often act as if they were. At least, the emperor could not heap his economic burdens on posterity by creating long-term public debt, for floating capital had not yet been conceptualized..."
    I'd say 'bold emphasis mine,' except I'm not the one saddling posterity with the tab for another round of obsolete cars and futuristic phones.



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