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Thread: So Oil is below $50, does Doomsday follow?

  1. #1

    So Oil is below $50, does Doomsday follow?

    I remember reading that on these forums when oil was around $80, can someone please elaborate and give advice on what to do right now? Is aggregate demand DONE? Are we going to become the first undeveloped country?

    I'm an economics major, but this Keynesian crap they force fed me HAS NO EXPLANATION for anything going on at this moment. My entire degree is crap at the moment.

    So basically, can someone lay out the current strategy for survival?

    Edit: I see there was already a similar thread! I'm sorry.



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  3. #2
    Quote Originally Posted by XxNeXuSxX View Post
    Edit: I see there was already a similar thread! I'm sorry.
    Link?
    "A free people ought not only to be armed and disciplined, but they should have sufficient arms and ammunition to maintain a status of independence from any who might attempt to abuse them, which would include their own government." George Washington

  4. #3
    Of course it's not doomday. What are you even talking about?

    It's just some bad economic times, and the government is unwittingly planning to make it worse with all their interventions. Be frugal and pay off all your debts... and don't expect much. You'll get through it just fine.

  5. #4
    This is great for me, Last year I was paying around $167+ for shipping on LTL oversize freight, now to the same destination I paid $91.00 woohoo!

  6. #5
    Oil at $50 a barrel per se isn't bad. Its when the arab countries are forced to sell their treasury bonds and American investments that we will run into a problem. This probably won't happen until the Obama administration.

  7. #6
    Quote Originally Posted by XxNeXuSxX View Post
    So basically, can someone lay out the current strategy for survival?
    We are in a deflationary credit contraction. This is a natural and probable reaction to the inflationary credit expansion. The US$ system does not so much collapse as evaporate. The last layer to evaporate will be the US$ through hyperinflation which is actually deflationary as it is a credit contraction event.

  8. #7
    Quote Originally Posted by jonahtrainer View Post
    We are in a deflationary credit contraction. This is a natural and probable reaction to the inflationary credit expansion. The US$ system does not so much collapse as evaporate. The last layer to evaporate will be the US$ through hyperinflation which is actually deflationary as it is a credit contraction event.
    to be clear, its not due to a lack of available credit. there's plenty of credit to be had, just no one willing to take it. people are saving, not spending. people are starting to learn you can't live on credit

  9. #8
    Quote Originally Posted by jonahtrainer View Post
    hyperinflation which is actually deflationary as it is a credit contraction event.
    Eh? Hyperinflation is deflationary? That's like saying up is down. Hyperinflation forces spending at an extremely rapid rate due to rapidly decreasing currency value. Deflation puts off spending because currency is increasing in value.

    That said, we will certainly have both, first deflation (which we are seeing now), and hyperinflation as the Fed debases the dollar, forcing those holding US treasuries to flood the market seeking to preserve their value.



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  11. #9
    Quote Originally Posted by XxNeXuSxX View Post
    I remember reading that on these forums when oil was around $80, can someone please elaborate and give advice on what to do right now? Is aggregate demand DONE? Are we going to become the first undeveloped country?

    I'm an economics major, but this Keynesian crap they force fed me HAS NO EXPLANATION for anything going on at this moment. My entire degree is crap at the moment.

    So basically, can someone lay out the current strategy for survival?

    Edit: I see there was already a similar thread! I'm sorry.
    Dude, it's not going to be an end of the world. We will not become an undeveloped country. Stop visiting RonPaulForums.com. Half of the people here are $#@!ing nuts.

  12. #10
    Quote Originally Posted by Paulitician View Post
    Of course it's not doomday. What are you even talking about?
    Wrong. This is the beginning of the end of the USA folks. This was carefully planned and timed by the elite. You want to survive? Everybody wants to survive, that's the problem. We should want to die to save our nation, yet most are just looking out for themselves. What happened to people like Patrick Henry who proclaimed before he was hung that his only regret was that he had but one life to give for his country. Where are these people today? Not in America.

  13. #11
    Quote Originally Posted by RickyJ View Post
    Wrong. This is the beginning of the end of the USA folks. This was carefully planned and timed by the elite. You want to survive? Everybody wants to survive, that's the problem. We should want to die to save our nation, yet most are just looking out for themselves. What happened to people like Patrick Henry who proclaimed before he was hung that his only regret was that he had but one life to give for his country. Where are these people today? Not in America.
    Hell Yeah. I like the way you think.

  14. #12
    Quote Originally Posted by RickyJ View Post
    What happened to people like Patrick Henry who proclaimed before he was hung that his only regret was that he had but one life to give for his country. Where are these people today? Not in America.
    That was Nathan Hale.

    ...and speak for yourself as to the lengths some may go...
    Don't let others get you down. Not naysayers, not pretenders, not appeasers, not opportunists; none of em.

    What others do pales beside what YOU do.

    Press on! - The r3VOLution continues...

    "Nothing in this world can take the place of persistence.Talent will not; nothing is more common than unsuccessful people with talent. Genius will not; unrewarded genius is almost a proverb. Education will not; the world is full of educated derelicts. Persistence and determination alone are omnipotent. The slogan 'press on' has solved and always will solve the problems of the human race."

    ~ C.Coolidge

  15. #13
    Quote Originally Posted by TheAmistad View Post
    Dude, it's not going to be an end of the world. We will not become an undeveloped country. Stop visiting RonPaulForums.com. Half of the people here are $#@!ing nuts.
    lol. This is probably true. Although there are a lot of crazy things going on behind the scenes and a lot of frightening possiblities, I agree that most of us need to chill out and stop panicking, myself included.

  16. #14
    Quote Originally Posted by RickyJ View Post
    Wrong. This is the beginning of the end of the USA folks. This was carefully planned and timed by the elite. You want to survive? Everybody wants to survive, that's the problem. We should want to die to save our nation, yet most are just looking out for themselves. What happened to people like Patrick Henry who proclaimed before he was hung that his only regret was that he had but one life to give for his country. Where are these people today? Not in America.

    Patrick Henry-"Give me Liberty, or give me Death"

    Nathan Hale-"I regret that i have but one life to give to my country"
    Beware the greedy hand of government, thrusting itself into every corner and crevice of industry.- Thomas Paine

  17. #15
    Quote Originally Posted by Paulitician View Post
    Of course it's not doomday. What are you even talking about?
    I'm talking about the members who were quoting some economist who was predicting when oil went back to $50, economic collapse would coincide. I'm sure there's a lot of people that know exactly what I'm talking about. Did you read my post or just the title? It wasn't my assumption.

    edit: you knew what I was talking about all along:

    Yep this is only 1 prediction that has come true. Williams also said that the oil guys wanted McCain. He said that the point of bringing oil to $50 / barrel was to bankrupt the middle east (yet to be seen). He also said that we'd see an economic collapse worse than the great depression (yet to be seen).
    People were saying a bankrupt middle east would make the economy collapse without a supply of oil, which would cause existing prices to skyrocket to $300; which you acknowledged. I'm glad he's wrong (knock on wood)

    But your explanation is much more rational...
    Last edited by XxNeXuSxX; 11-20-2008 at 07:21 PM.

  18. #16
    Quote Originally Posted by ghengis86 View Post
    to be clear, its not due to a lack of available credit. there's plenty of credit to be had, just no one willing to take it. people are saving, not spending. people are starting to learn you can't live on credit
    All the people who are going through foreclosure and bankruptcy are not exactly credit worthy now. So you are seeing a huge group of people who no longer qualify for credit, Furthermore the standards for credit have been increased so that easy credit is no longer available for those who may want to commit credit suicide. So your statement is a bit unrealistic in that people are choosing to do the right thing but rather being forced to live off available funds...
    We will be known forever by the tracks we leave. - Dakota


    Go Forward With Courage

    When you are in doubt, be still, and wait;
    when doubt no longer exists for you, then go forward with courage.
    So long as mists envelop you, be still;
    be still until the sunlight pours through and dispels the mists
    -- as it surely will.
    Then act with courage.

    Ponca Chief White Eagle



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  20. #17
    Quote Originally Posted by ronpaulhawaii View Post
    That was Nathan Hale.

    ...and speak for yourself as to the lengths some may go...
    Exactly,there is a time and a place for everything. Sacrifices should be made when they will be effective, not just because someone goads you into it.
    We will be known forever by the tracks we leave. - Dakota


    Go Forward With Courage

    When you are in doubt, be still, and wait;
    when doubt no longer exists for you, then go forward with courage.
    So long as mists envelop you, be still;
    be still until the sunlight pours through and dispels the mists
    -- as it surely will.
    Then act with courage.

    Ponca Chief White Eagle

  21. #18
    Quote Originally Posted by ronpaulhawaii View Post
    That was Nathan Hale.

    ...and speak for yourself as to the lengths some may go...

    War; everything in the world wrong, evil and immoral combined into one and multiplied by millions.

  22. #19
    Oil below USD50?

    Celebrate! Duh........

  23. #20
    Saudi market worried about it. Market tanked today,

    http://www.gulfnews.com/business/Markets/10261938.html

    9 percent haircut.

  24. #21
    The world will be fine
    chill
    It's going yo be rough, so get your head straight and stock up, buy some gold if you can find/afford it and live within your means.If you've got a brain that is worth your time then plan ahead.
    The worst thing you can do is panic. Read up on what is goin on in the world, and make sure you have food and water in case of shortages or natural disaster etc.

  25. #22
    Down again 4.7 percent today. Total 17 plus down over two days,

    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...mT4&refer=home

    Getting ugly.

  26. #23
    Israel stock market down 6 percent today.

  27. #24



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  29. #25
    Quote Originally Posted by XxNeXuSxX View Post
    I remember reading that on these forums when oil was around $80, can someone please elaborate and give advice on what to do right now? Is aggregate demand DONE? Are we going to become the first undeveloped country?

    I'm an economics major, but this Keynesian crap they force fed me HAS NO EXPLANATION for anything going on at this moment. My entire degree is crap at the moment.

    So basically, can someone lay out the current strategy for survival?

    Edit: I see there was already a similar thread! I'm sorry.
    I'm an economics minor, BUT only to study my enemy...the best advice I could ever give you is to study austrian economics. For every one hour of Keynesian economics study Austrian for at least as much time. It helps and has helped me so much already. I've learned so much and made a good amount of money too. I'm also a finance major as well so that helps.

    visit www.mises.org

    I suggest you learn about the business cycle from the Austrian point of view. Human Action by Mises is very good...as well as his book on money and credit. Hayek and Rothbard are worth the time too.

    America's Great Depression will explain everything happening right now. It's almost a little scary because Rothbard wrote the book using examples from the 30's but the exact samething is happening now.
    Privatize the profits, socialize the losses. - Government at its best.

  30. #26
    Well, if Lindsay Williams is right, now that oil has gone down to $50 a barrel we should have about three weeks before the dollar goes down to zero. He is the one with the theory that $50 oil would lead to doomsday the original poster refers to. That does not leave much time to get your self ready.

    But I dont' buy what he says. To be better able to deal with ANY crisis in your life, live below your means, keep debts paid off (except perhaps a mortgage- and plan to have that paid off by the time you retire to avoid housing expenses at a time when your income level drops) and save money for emergencies. You should have at least six months (or longer) in a fairly liquid place in case you are unable to work (or find work if you lose your job) so you can still pay your bills during that time. This is NOT money you want to put into gold or stocks.

    Things will be difficult for a while- I think at least two or three years but nobody can know for certain.



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