All of the good news we've just learned from Iowa!

EvilNight · 01-03-2008, 09:16 PM

You've just seen the worst performance that Ron will EVER be capable of giving us. Iowa is his worst state. We know this. Why? Nearly 70% of them said they were happy with Bush (aka the anti-Paul). Iowa is HOSTILE territory for Ron Paul. We are so lucky that it was the first one. He will go up from here much like the fundraising graphs - steady as a rock.

What does that mean? He'll always score better than this from here on out, even in democratic states. This is our new baseline. It's not much of one, but it DOES tell us many things. Like what?

1. Fred Thompson is toast. It's down to Huck and Romney unless Fred wants to pony up the big bucks. I doubt he'll stay in. We're going to get a slice of Fred's voters because they aren't happy with Huck. We may even get the lion's share. That will matter more in blue states, I think.

2. We OWNED the independent (and Angry) vote in Iowa. This means we can expect to own it everywhere. The independents heard us loud and clear. New Hampshire has a lot of independents, but it also has a lot of McCain fans, so it's not quite so friendly as it looks at first. This does mean though that we can count getting the 3rd party support and the Perot fans, and probably most registered Independents.

3. There's still a lot of fighting going on inside the Republican ranks. This means people have not nearly made up their minds yet, and those who have are NOT firmly committed. Ron's supporters are very firmly committed.

4. We're still 'under the radar' which is, frankly, Ron's usual way of doing business, if you look at his prior campaigns. He's very good at coming in from behind late and taking everyone by surprise. We should expect to see that same behavior here - because that behavior just follows Ron around and has for decades. It doesn't matter why, just that it does. I think it's because he's a SOLID attractor. Once you decide you like Ron, you're not likely to change your mind, but it takes a while to warm up to him. With the rest of them, there's a new scandal every day to make you regret your endorsement, but never with Ron.

5. Voter turnout was abysmal. Good news, since Paulites are more likely to come out than any other candidate's supporters. We all know that. Don't forget it.

6. Ron did not break the bank or go all out for this. WE DID. Ron knows the deal with Iowa. Considering everything, we did alright.

Now, the good news... everyone went home after this little straw poll. We all know that means they won't be voting for delegates. We will. Iowa may have one more small surprise in it for us before morning.

Sleep easy on that. The sun is coming up in New Hampshire very soon.

Akus · 01-03-2008, 09:19 PM

Thank you.
I think I will.

ButchHowdy · 01-03-2008, 09:22 PM

Great synopsis!~

aricart · 01-03-2008, 09:24 PM

I'll sleep happily, knowing we just gained way more than our share of delegates from this thing.

jm1776 · 01-03-2008, 09:40 PM

Nice post. Good to remember that the initial volley at Lexington was not an overwhelming victory either.

NerveShocker · 01-03-2008, 09:41 PM

Agreed.

stoutmaker · 01-03-2008, 09:44 PM

are still valid ones. You are factually incorrect on one. Voter turnout was not abysmal. In fact, there was an increase over the previous 2004 turnout by a significant margin. However, as you stated, this was mostly the religeous right who were voting for Huck-a-who.

10% is our baseline. Nowhere to go but up!

josephadel_3 · 01-03-2008, 09:46 PM

OddballAZ · 01-03-2008, 09:51 PM

I agree. These are all good points. Nobody should lose hope. Iowa is full of old people who get most of their news and info from NBC, CBS, and ABC nightly news. These are not people who could carry on any kind of a decent discussion about economics or really anything Ron Paul is talking about. The rest of the country is a bit more awake than Iowa is. Let's hope they are a LOT more awake.

NH should be better. Over 50% of voters there are independent.

USAF Vet Dan · 01-03-2008, 09:53 PM

I agree with everything you said, except for voter turnout (it was big) and

Quote:

Once you decide you like Ron, you're not likely to change your mind, but it takes a while to warm up to him.

A small point, but... I think most people who hear his message are instantly turned on - certainly anybody who doesn't believe in the MSM propaganda and the tooth fairy.

Stupid people shouldn't breed or vote.

01-03-2008, 09:16 PM	#1
EvilNight Senior Member Join Date: Nov 2007 Posts: 219	All of the good news we've just learned from Iowa! You've just seen the worst performance that Ron will EVER be capable of giving us. Iowa is his worst state. We know this. Why? Nearly 70% of them said they were happy with Bush (aka the anti-Paul). Iowa is HOSTILE territory for Ron Paul. We are so lucky that it was the first one. He will go up from here much like the fundraising graphs - steady as a rock. What does that mean? He'll always score better than this from here on out, even in democratic states. This is our new baseline. It's not much of one, but it DOES tell us many things. Like what? 1. Fred Thompson is toast. It's down to Huck and Romney unless Fred wants to pony up the big bucks. I doubt he'll stay in. We're going to get a slice of Fred's voters because they aren't happy with Huck. We may even get the lion's share. That will matter more in blue states, I think. 2. We OWNED the independent (and Angry) vote in Iowa. This means we can expect to own it everywhere. The independents heard us loud and clear. New Hampshire has a lot of independents, but it also has a lot of McCain fans, so it's not quite so friendly as it looks at first. This does mean though that we can count getting the 3rd party support and the Perot fans, and probably most registered Independents. 3. There's still a lot of fighting going on inside the Republican ranks. This means people have not nearly made up their minds yet, and those who have are NOT firmly committed. Ron's supporters are very firmly committed. 4. We're still 'under the radar' which is, frankly, Ron's usual way of doing business, if you look at his prior campaigns. He's very good at coming in from behind late and taking everyone by surprise. We should expect to see that same behavior here - because that behavior just follows Ron around and has for decades. It doesn't matter why, just that it does. I think it's because he's a SOLID attractor. Once you decide you like Ron, you're not likely to change your mind, but it takes a while to warm up to him. With the rest of them, there's a new scandal every day to make you regret your endorsement, but never with Ron. 5. Voter turnout was abysmal. Good news, since Paulites are more likely to come out than any other candidate's supporters. We all know that. Don't forget it. 6. Ron did not break the bank or go all out for this. WE DID. Ron knows the deal with Iowa. Considering everything, we did alright. Now, the good news... everyone went home after this little straw poll. We all know that means they won't be voting for delegates. We will. Iowa may have one more small surprise in it for us before morning. Sleep easy on that. The sun is coming up in New Hampshire very soon.

01-03-2008, 09:19 PM	#2
Akus Senior Member Join Date: Jul 2007 Location: Texas Posts: 2,049	Thank you. I think I will. __________________ Screw the big two! Let's all vote Libertarian.

01-03-2008, 09:40 PM	#5
jm1776 Senior Member Join Date: Aug 2007 Location: Before the mast Posts: 288	Nice post. Good to remember that the initial volley at Lexington was not an overwhelming victory either. __________________ The Fascinating (and liberating) Truth About Taxation In America

01-03-2008, 09:44 PM	#7
stoutmaker Senior Member Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 104	While all of your points... are still valid ones. You are factually incorrect on one. Voter turnout was not abysmal. In fact, there was an increase over the previous 2004 turnout by a significant margin. However, as you stated, this was mostly the religeous right who were voting for Huck-a-who. 10% is our baseline. Nowhere to go but up!

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01-03-2008, 09:22 PM	#3
ButchHowdy Senior Member Join Date: May 2007 Location: Rockledge, FL Posts: 1,008	Great synopsis!~

01-03-2008, 09:24 PM	#4
aricart Member Join Date: Jan 2008 Posts: 92	I'll sleep happily, knowing we just gained way more than our share of delegates from this thing.

01-03-2008, 09:41 PM	#6
NerveShocker Senior Member Join Date: Nov 2007 Location: Liberal City Posts: 1,438	Agreed.

01-03-2008, 09:46 PM	#8
josephadel_3 Senior Member Join Date: Jan 2008 Posts: 611	Nice

01-03-2008, 09:51 PM	#9
OddballAZ Senior Member Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 208	I agree. These are all good points. Nobody should lose hope. Iowa is full of old people who get most of their news and info from NBC, CBS, and ABC nightly news. These are not people who could carry on any kind of a decent discussion about economics or really anything Ron Paul is talking about. The rest of the country is a bit more awake than Iowa is. Let's hope they are a LOT more awake. NH should be better. Over 50% of voters there are independent.