Delegate Projection

nate895 · 02-10-2008, 06:07 PM

Huckabee:576
Romney: 239
McCain: 1147 DANGER
Paul: 137
Unpledged: 251
Unknown: 15

First Ballot.

View Spreadsheet here.

I had Paul winning in the territories outside of Puerto Rico, which I put in McCain's tally. He also won Washington Caucus, Hawaii, as well as his home district in TX. enough to surpass the 5 states to be placed as candidate. Although, you can still vote for him if he is not a candidate. He also got the delegates due to the fact that the primary in New Mexico is non-binding, and the state convention actually decides the rules

Edit Note: Still 43 off, but I have no clue where it's coming from, I'll report back soon.

Delegate Projection Error found: I couldn't add in the delegates won by those who have dropped (save Romney), and that could well add up to apx. 43, but I'm unsure.

kirkblitz · 02-10-2008, 06:09 PM

so how will we win if this turns out to be the actual projection? what would force mccain or huck to back us

Ron Paul Fan · 02-10-2008, 06:11 PM

LOL! McCain is up by 28 and 32% in Virginia! He'll sweep all 3 contests on Tuesday and pick up 90-100 delegates on Tuesday easily. Then you talk about Ohio, Pennsylvania, Vermont, New Mexico, etc. etc. and it's just really hard to imagine Huckabee beating McCain in any of these states.

Paul.Bearer.of.Injustice · 02-10-2008, 06:12 PM

1191 needed to win:

848 + 285 = 1133
:-)

nate895 · 02-10-2008, 06:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ron Paul Fan

LOL! McCain is up by 28 and 32% in Virginia! He'll sweep all 3 contests on Tuesday and pick up 90-100 delegates on Tuesday easily. Then you talk about Ohio, Pennsylvania, Vermont, New Mexico, etc. etc. and it's just really hard to imagine Huckabee beating McCain in any of these states.

I put all the ones you talked about in McCain's column except Ohio and VA, which it is possible for him to win there, it is a month away after all, and he may get a boost from his victories yesterday. Remember, he wasn't going anywhere before he won Iowa.

AlexMerced · 02-10-2008, 06:13 PM

lol, we just need these numbers to hold for the first ballot, our numbers will be bigger on the second ballot cause of many of people now become unbound

nate895 · 02-10-2008, 06:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kirkblitz

so how will we win if this turns out to be the actual projection? what would force mccain or huck to back us

We infiltrate and are forced to vote for one of the others first ballot, but then vote Paul when released.

JordanQ72 · 02-10-2008, 06:15 PM

Besides the fact that you seem to have less votes than delegates, very few of the remaining states are winner take all. It'll be Huckabee and McCain both getting delegates, and as long as he can hold to above 35%, he's in.

familydog · 02-10-2008, 06:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kirkblitz

so how will we win if this turns out to be the actual projection? what would force mccain or huck to back us

Good question.

Anyone?

NEPA_Revolution · 02-10-2008, 06:17 PM

I dont think Paul wants the neo-cons help.

02-10-2008, 06:12 PM	#4
Paul.Bearer.of.Injustice Senior Member Join Date: Nov 2007 Location: Boston Posts: 1,398	1191 needed to win: 848 + 285 = 1133 :-) __________________ No more Mr. Bad guy

02-10-2008, 06:13 PM	#6
AlexMerced Senior Member Join Date: Nov 2007 Location: Freeport, NY Posts: 4,565	lol, we just need these numbers to hold for the first ballot, our numbers will be bigger on the second ballot cause of many of people now become unbound __________________ Alex Merced - A Champion of Freedom ------------------------------------------------------------------ Merced For Freedom - Videos, Podcasts, blogs, more LibertyWarChest.com - Fueling the Freedom Movement

Thread Tools
Show Printable Version Email this Page
Display Modes
Linear Mode Switch to Hybrid Mode Switch to Threaded Mode

02-10-2008, 06:09 PM	#2
kirkblitz Senior Member Join Date: Jun 2007 Location: SC Posts: 1,315	so how will we win if this turns out to be the actual projection? what would force mccain or huck to back us

02-10-2008, 06:11 PM	#3
Ron Paul Fan Banned Join Date: Jul 2007 Posts: 3,007	LOL! McCain is up by 28 and 32% in Virginia! He'll sweep all 3 contests on Tuesday and pick up 90-100 delegates on Tuesday easily. Then you talk about Ohio, Pennsylvania, Vermont, New Mexico, etc. etc. and it's just really hard to imagine Huckabee beating McCain in any of these states.

02-10-2008, 06:15 PM	#8
JordanQ72 Banned Join Date: Jan 2008 Posts: 577	Besides the fact that you seem to have less votes than delegates, very few of the remaining states are winner take all. It'll be Huckabee and McCain both getting delegates, and as long as he can hold to above 35%, he's in.