Delegate Projection

[nate895]

Huckabee:576
Romney: 239
McCain: 1147 DANGER
Paul: 137
Unpledged: 251
Unknown: 15


First Ballot.

View Spreadsheet here.

I had Paul winning in the territories outside of Puerto Rico, which I put in McCain's tally. He also won Washington Caucus, Hawaii, as well as his home district in TX. enough to surpass the 5 states to be placed as candidate. Although, you can still vote for him if he is not a candidate. He also got the delegates due to the fact that the primary in New Mexico is non-binding, and the state convention actually decides the rules

Edit Note: Still 43 off, but I have no clue where it's coming from, I'll report back soon.

Delegate Projection Error found: I couldn't add in the delegates won by those who have dropped (save Romney), and that could well add up to apx. 43, but I'm unsure.

[kirkblitz]

so how will we win if this turns out to be the actual projection? what would force mccain or huck to back us

[nate895]

Originally Posted by kirkblitz

so how will we win if this turns out to be the actual projection? what would force mccain or huck to back us

We infiltrate and are forced to vote for one of the others first ballot, but then vote Paul when released.

[kyleAF]

Originally Posted by nate895

We infiltrate and are forced to vote for one of the others first ballot, but then vote Paul when released.

You don't *have* to vote according to state rules at the national convention. You just get into trouble if you don't.

[nate895]

Originally Posted by kyleAF

You don't *have* to vote according to state rules at the national convention. You just get into trouble if you don't.

Are you sure you want to face prison time? It's fine if you do.

[Avalon]

Originally Posted by kyleAF

You don't *have* to vote according to state rules at the national convention. You just get into trouble if you don't.

In some cases "you" don't vote at all. In others, you will be replaced by an alternate (whom could also be a RP delegate ) before you can place your vote. And trouble can be mean jail. In any case, let's not count on getting many of the legally bound delegates.

[familydog]

Originally Posted by kirkblitz

so how will we win if this turns out to be the actual projection? what would force mccain or huck to back us

Good question.

Anyone?

[slamhead]

Originally Posted by kirkblitz

so how will we win if this turns out to be the actual projection? what would force mccain or huck to back us

They don't have to back us. Without a majority it is brokered and the delegates are released to vote their conscience.

[Ron Paul Fan]

LOL! McCain is up by 28 and 32% in Virginia! He'll sweep all 3 contests on Tuesday and pick up 90-100 delegates on Tuesday easily. Then you talk about Ohio, Pennsylvania, Vermont, New Mexico, etc. etc. and it's just really hard to imagine Huckabee beating McCain in any of these states.

[nate895]

Originally Posted by Ron Paul Fan

LOL! McCain is up by 28 and 32% in Virginia! He'll sweep all 3 contests on Tuesday and pick up 90-100 delegates on Tuesday easily. Then you talk about Ohio, Pennsylvania, Vermont, New Mexico, etc. etc. and it's just really hard to imagine Huckabee beating McCain in any of these states.

I put all the ones you talked about in McCain's column except Ohio and VA, which it is possible for him to win there, it is a month away after all, and he may get a boost from his victories yesterday. Remember, he wasn't going anywhere before he won Iowa.