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Thread: Donald Trump is Not Expanding the GOP

  1. #1

    Donald Trump is Not Expanding the GOP

    Donald Trump is Not Expanding the GOP

    A POLITICO analysis of early-voting data show little evidence for one of the Republican nominee’s core claims.

    By Shane Goldmacher

    May 17, 2016


    Donald Trump likes to say he has created a political movement that has drawn “millions and millions” of new voters into the Republican Party. “It’s the biggest thing happening in politics,” Trump has said. “All over the world, they’re talking about it,” he's bragged.

    But a Politico analysis of the early 2016 voting data show that, so far, it’s just not true.

    While Trump’s insurgent candidacy has spurred record-setting Republican primary turnout in state after state, the early statistics show that the vast majority of those voters aren’t actually new to voting or to the Republican Party, but rather they are reliable past voters in general elections. They are only casting ballots in a Republican primary for the first time.

    It is a distinction with profound consequences for the fall campaign.

    If Trump isn’t bringing the promised wave of new voters into the GOP, it’s far less likely the Manhattan businessman can transform a 2016 Electoral College map that begins tilted against the Republican Party. And whether Trump’s voters are truly new is a question of urgent interest both to GOP operatives and Hillary Clinton and her allies, who have dispatched their top analytics experts to find the answer.

    “All he seems to have done is bring new people into the primary process, not bring new people into the general-election process … It’s exciting that these new people that are engaged in the primary but those people are people that are already going to vote Republican in the [fall],” said Alex Lundry, who served as director of data science for Mitt Romney in 2012, when presented Politico’s findings. “It confirms what my suspicion has been all along.”

    ...
    http://www.politico.com/magazine/sto...ng-data-213897
    “I don’t think that there will be any curtailing of Donald Trump as president,” he said. "He controls the media, he controls the sentiment [and] he controls everybody. He’s the one who will resort to executive orders more so than [President] Obama ever used them." - Ron Paul



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  3. #2
    A cult following.

  4. #3
    The most important element of a free society, where individual rights are held in the highest esteem, is the rejection of the initiation of violence.

    RON PAUL







  5. #4
    Last edited by CPUd; 05-17-2016 at 10:22 AM.
    “I don’t think that there will be any curtailing of Donald Trump as president,” he said. "He controls the media, he controls the sentiment [and] he controls everybody. He’s the one who will resort to executive orders more so than [President] Obama ever used them." - Ron Paul

  6. #5
    Does this finally prove their polling data is fraudulent?
    "He's talkin' to his gut like it's a person!!" -me
    "dumpster diving isn't professional." - angelatc
    "You don't need a medical degree to spot obvious bullshit, that's actually a separate skill." -Scott Adams
    "When you are divided, and angry, and controlled, you target those 'different' from you, not those responsible [controllers]" -Q

    "Each of us must choose which course of action we should take: education, conventional political action, or even peaceful civil disobedience to bring about necessary changes. But let it not be said that we did nothing." - Ron Paul

    "Paul said "the wave of the future" is a coalition of anti-authoritarian progressive Democrats and libertarian Republicans in Congress opposed to domestic surveillance, opposed to starting new wars and in favor of ending the so-called War on Drugs."

  7. #6
    Quote Originally Posted by dannno View Post
    Does this finally prove their polling data is fraudulent?
    The polling seemed to be all right, except they were making assumptions about their sample that are now showing to be incorrect.
    “I don’t think that there will be any curtailing of Donald Trump as president,” he said. "He controls the media, he controls the sentiment [and] he controls everybody. He’s the one who will resort to executive orders more so than [President] Obama ever used them." - Ron Paul

  8. #7
    Is that a significant part of his job?

  9. #8
    Quote Originally Posted by CPUd View Post
    1. If Trump is inspiring people who only vote in the general election once every 12 years to vote in a primary, that is huge. Additionally, sporadic voters tend to be Independents or Democrats who might well have voted against the GOP candidate in the past so not only is Trump adding votes, he's taking them away from the other side.

    2. Nice cherry picking. South Carolina is a state where virtually all the Democrats are black. Trump will get more of the black vote than any GOP candidate in history, but he's still going to get clobbered in the black vote. South Carolina is not a state where he will inspire party swapping on a massive scale. PA, OH, and the northeastern states are where he's hoping to do that.

    3. Six percent of 2.3 million is 140,000 votes. Nothing to sneeze at and in fact if Romney had gotten 140,000 extra votes in 2012 he would have won Florida.



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  11. #9

  12. #10
    Quote Originally Posted by RonPaulMall View Post
    1. If Trump is inspiring people who only vote in the general election once every 12 years to vote in a primary, that is huge. Additionally, sporadic voters tend to be Independents or Democrats who might well have voted against the GOP candidate in the past so not only is Trump adding votes, he's taking them away from the other side.

    2. Nice cherry picking. South Carolina is a state where virtually all the Democrats are black. Trump will get more of the black vote than any GOP candidate in history, but he's still going to get clobbered in the black vote. South Carolina is not a state where he will inspire party swapping on a massive scale. PA, OH, and the northeastern states are where he's hoping to do that.

    3. Six percent of 2.3 million is 140,000 votes. Nothing to sneeze at and in fact if Romney had gotten 140,000 extra votes in 2012 he would have won Florida.
    What they're saying is that the sporadic voters were registered GOP who voted in previous general elections, but not primaries, until 2016. Trump is claiming they are from outside the GOP, but the numbers show otherwise. This is huge because we know the number of registered party members in each state, and many states (based on party membership) are impossible for a GOP to win unless they bring in new voters from the pool of unaffiliated or Democrat voters.
    “I don’t think that there will be any curtailing of Donald Trump as president,” he said. "He controls the media, he controls the sentiment [and] he controls everybody. He’s the one who will resort to executive orders more so than [President] Obama ever used them." - Ron Paul

  13. #11
    He's not bringing the right kind of puppets who favor open borders and globalism.
    BOWLING GREEN, Kentucky – Washington liberals are trying to push through the so-called DREAM Act, which creates an official path to Democrat voter registration for 2 million college-age illegal immigrants.
    Rand Paul 2010

    Booker T. Washington:
    Cast it down among the eight millions of Negroes whose habits you know, whose
    fidelity and love you have tested in days when to have proved treacherous meant the ruin of your firesides.

  14. #12
    Quote Originally Posted by FindLiberty View Post
    Clinton 2016 FTW

    NOOOOOOOO!!!! VERMIN SUPREME 2016 ALL THE WAY!!!11!!11!!!
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    what works can never be discussed online. there is only one language the government understands, and until the people start speaking it by the magazine full... things will remain the same.
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  15. #13
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    Quote Originally Posted by FindLiberty View Post
    Clinton 2016 FTW
    Word on the street is that a secret billionaire is going to pull Trump's campaign out of the ditch and propel him to victory.
    Citizen of Arizona
    @cleaner4d4

    I am a libertarian. I am advocating everyone enjoy maximum freedom on both personal and economic issues as long as they do not bring violence unto others.

  16. #14
    xxxxx
    Last edited by Voluntarist; 07-25-2018 at 05:02 PM.
    You have the right to remain silent. Anything you post to the internet can and will be used to humiliate you.

  17. #15
    New data backs argument that Trump has not expanded the GOP

    There is more evidence now casting doubt on Donald Trump’s claim that he is expanding the Republican Party.

    Additional data from the GOP primary shows that increased turnout in several primary states was driven largely by already-active Republican voters who have historically skipped primaries and voted only in general elections.

    Trump has boasted that he is drawing new voters to the political process and to the GOP. And the theory of how he might overcome the Democrats’ growing demographic advantage in key swing states where white voters are no longer dominant majorities rests on the assumption that nontraditional voters, many from the white working class, have been flocking to the polls for the first time in their lives in order to cast their votes for Trump.

    Primary election statistics collected by Politico first cast doubt on that claim. And now new data — voter files combined with field polling from these states collected by a Republican data analysis firm that worked for Florida Sen. Marco Rubio’s presidential campaign — lends more weight to the conclusion that Trump’s candidacy is not game-changing, or particularly well-positioned for the general election.

    There is a significant caveat to all this, an unknown that can’t be measured. Even if Trump’s support has come from traditional Republican voters, the question remains: Does this year’s surge of new primary voters predict a wave of entirely new voters who will come to the polls in November? It’s possible. The general election is a far bigger event than any one state’s primary, so participation is easier for voters who don’t follow politics as closely as those who vote in primaries.

    And of course, the other significant question is whether likely Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton can turn out as many voters as President Obama did when he ran in 2008 and 2012. This also is a big hurdle.

    What is clear is, the data so far does indicate that Trump has not yet significantly grown the Republican Party. There are small numbers of new voters who came to the polls this year, and in one state — New Hampshire — that might be enough to help Trump win. But in several other swing states — Virginia, Ohio and Michigan — if the Democrats can reassemble the Obama coalition, Trump’s new support is not enough to win.

    0ptimus, the data and analytics firm that worked for Rubio, focused its analysis on a few key states.

    In Virginia, there was a stunning turnout in the Republican primary on March 1. More than three times the number of primary voters in 2012 came to the polls, a total of 1,025,452.

    Of that total, 18.6 percent, or 190,734, were regular primary voters. But they were swamped by voters who usually participate only in general elections. That group made up 72.1 percent of the Republican primary electorate in Virginia. Younger voters who weren’t eligible for previous elections and those who moved into the state made up 3.6 percent.

    Only 5.7 percent of the more than 1 million primary voters were new voters. That’s a total of 58,450 new voters.

    To put that in perspective, look at the 2012 general election. In 2012 in Virginia, President Obama defeated Republican nominee Mitt Romney by almost 150,000 votes. Obama received 1,971,820 votes to Romney’s 1,822,522.

    So if you add the nearly 60,000 votes to a Republican nominee, but the Democrat recreates Obama’s turnout — which, again, is not a sure thing — the Republican is still 90,000 votes short.

    And keep in mind that the Virginia primary was one of the most closely contested in the GOP race. Trump won the state in this year’s election, but with only one-third of the vote. He got 356,840 votes, but Rubio, Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, Ohio Gov. John Kasich and retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson received a combined 657,080 votes.

    Many of those Republican voters will turn out for Trump against Clinton, even if they opposed him in the primary. But some won’t.

    To go further, Optimus looked at the results of almost 4,000 telephone surveys it conducted around the time of the primary. Using those responses, the firm built a model of the Virginia electorate and found that of the 72 percent of voters who were new to the primary but usually voted in the general election, “the vast majority” were voters who were already likely to support a Republican candidate.

    This confirmed that the “new” primary voters were almost all regular Republican voters who usually cast ballots only in a general election in the fall. They are not first-time voters or traditionally Democratic-leaning individuals who crossed over.

    The same dynamic occurred when 0ptimus looked at Ohio. The Buckeye State saw 1,988,960 people come to the polls for the Republican primary this year, up from 1,213,879 in 2012 and 1,095,917 in 2008. Of those, some 53.6 percent were regular primary voters, and 36.8 percent were regular general election voters. Only 5.9 percent were new voters, yielding a total of roughly 118,000 votes.

    Romney lost Ohio in 2012 by 166,000 votes, so while 118,000 new voters would get Trump closer to winning if Clinton were to maintain the Obama number, it wouldn’t get him over the top.

    The same scenario played out in Michigan, where there were a lot of new voters this year — about 119,000. Even so, Romney lost that state in 2012 by 450,000 votes.

    In New Hampshire, there were 37,000 new voters, and Romney lost there by just 39,000 in 2012. That was the one state surveyed by 0ptimus in which Trump’s primary election numbers indicated a better chance of winning than Romney had in 2012. But flipping New Hampshire into the Republican column would not be nearly enough to win the 270 Electoral College votes required to secure the presidency.

    The authors of the paper from 0ptimus concluded: “The increase in presidential primary turnout should give little comfort to the GOP as it looks ahead to November’s general election.”
    https://www.yahoo.com/news/data-back...140041120.html
    “I don’t think that there will be any curtailing of Donald Trump as president,” he said. "He controls the media, he controls the sentiment [and] he controls everybody. He’s the one who will resort to executive orders more so than [President] Obama ever used them." - Ron Paul

  18. #16
    Quote Originally Posted by Cleaner44 View Post
    Word on the street is that a secret billionaire is going to pull Trump's campaign out of the ditch and propel him to victory.
    With Trump being a billionaire, this is a rumor that will definitely not be replayed as it was with Ron Paul.



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  20. #17
    It's already happened. Sheldon Adelson is revealed to be Trump's secret billionaire.

    GOP megadonor Adelson throws support behind Trump
    “I don’t think that there will be any curtailing of Donald Trump as president,” he said. "He controls the media, he controls the sentiment [and] he controls everybody. He’s the one who will resort to executive orders more so than [President] Obama ever used them." - Ron Paul

  21. #18
    I am not sure the GOP can be expanded and find it doubtful they will not be defeated in Ohio , Virginia & Michigan . The GOP may already have all the voters they can get. 6 in 10 americans are employed , half of those pay no Fed tax or get back more than they pay and , or are on food stamps . "Free" $#@! at the expense of others is the core Dem party principle .

  22. #19
    Quote Originally Posted by oyarde View Post
    I am not sure the GOP can be expanded and find it doubtful they will not be defeated in Ohio , Virginia & Michigan . The GOP may already have all the voters they can get. 6 in 10 americans are employed , half of those pay no Fed tax or get back more than they pay and , or are on food stamps . "Free" $#@! at the expense of others is the core Dem party principle .
    Indeed. We may be near, or may have already passed, a tipping point. Rand's attempts to reach out to the black communities yielded negligible results. . Ron Paul typically frequented liberal strongholds in college campuses, with people climbing up trees to hear him speak (Berkeley), but this never translated into votes. Apparently it's too much to ask people to switch party affiliation to support an individual candidate over a party.

    In other words, dig in and keep your head low.
    Quote Originally Posted by timosman View Post
    This is getting silly.
    Quote Originally Posted by Swordsmyth View Post
    It started silly.
    T.S. Eliot's The Hollow Men

    "One of the penalties for refusing to participate in politics is that you end up being governed by your inferiors." - Plato

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    Quote Originally Posted by Philhelm
    I part ways with "libertarianism" when it transitions from ideology grounded in logic into self-defeating autism for the sake of ideological purity.



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