View Poll Results: Are We In A Recession Already?

Voters
17. You may not vote on this poll
  • Yes, it has already started

    11 64.71%
  • No, it has not started yet, but it will crash soon

    3 17.65%
  • No, we are doing good

    2 11.76%
  • No, it will never happen with Trump in Office

    1 5.88%
Page 2 of 3 FirstFirst 123 LastLast
Results 31 to 60 of 68

Thread: Are We In A Recession Already?

  1. #31
    Changing the definition to manipulate or change an outcome doesn't mean much either. All we've done is redefine a term and we have a different outcome. What if we averaged both together to come up with say "an aggregate unemployment rate based on real unemployed and those seeking employment". It still would be diluted data for each case but maybe we'd have a better picture.

    (real unemployed rate) + (seeking employment) / 2

    We're being governed ruled by a geriatric Alzheimer patient/puppet whose strings are being pulled by an elitist oligarchy who believe they can manage the world... imagine the utter maniacal, sociopathic hubris!



  2. Remove this section of ads by registering.
  3. #32
    Quote Originally Posted by Pauls' Revere View Post
    Changing the definition to manipulate or change an outcome doesn't mean much either. All we've done is redefine a term and we have a different outcome. What if we averaged both together to come up with say "an aggregate unemployment rate based on real unemployed and those seeking employment. It still would be diluted data for each case but maybe we'd have a better picture.
    Who would you consider "unemployed"? What would be your definition? Who counts? Who does not?



  4. Remove this section of ads by registering.
  5. #33
    Quote Originally Posted by Zippyjuan View Post
    Who would you consider "unemployed"? What would be your definition? Who counts? Who does not?
    Unemployed = without a job. (newborns, dead persons, students, retired, exempted)
    Employed = with a job
    Without a job but seeking = employable. (but still NOT employed)
    With job but want better job = underemployed
    with a job but unknowingly about to lose your job = actively pending unemployed.

    We're being governed ruled by a geriatric Alzheimer patient/puppet whose strings are being pulled by an elitist oligarchy who believe they can manage the world... imagine the utter maniacal, sociopathic hubris!

  6. #34
    Quote Originally Posted by Pauls' Revere View Post
    Unemployed = without a job. (newborns, dead persons, students, retired, exempted)
    Employed = with a job
    Without a job but seeking = employable. (but still NOT employed)
    With job but want better job = underemployed
    with a job but unknowingly about to lose your job = actively pending unemployed.
    So pretty much how the BLS counts things.

    I like how Damian gives me reps on these threads but never bothers to post any public responses to me.
    Last edited by Zippyjuan; 12-08-2018 at 06:22 PM.

  7. #35
    Quote Originally Posted by Zippyjuan View Post
    So pretty much how the BLS counts things.

    I like how Damian gives me reps on these threads but never bothers to post any public responses to me.
    Yeah, however. Employed (not equal to) no job but looking.

    We're being governed ruled by a geriatric Alzheimer patient/puppet whose strings are being pulled by an elitist oligarchy who believe they can manage the world... imagine the utter maniacal, sociopathic hubris!

  8. #36
    What if the two consecutive quarters do not come and we just continue on with dismal growth as we have ?
    Do something Danke

  9. #37
    Yes. Please see Rothbard's explanation of recession/depression in "Man, Economy, And State" for a detailed explanation why.
    Quote Originally Posted by Torchbearer
    what works can never be discussed online. there is only one language the government understands, and until the people start speaking it by the magazine full... things will remain the same.
    Hear/buy my music here "government is the enemy of liberty"-RP Support me on Patreon here Ephesians 6:12

  10. #38
    Quote Originally Posted by Pauls' Revere View Post
    This would imply that unemployment is zero because if you are not willing to work then you should not be counted as unemployed. To be classified as unemployed you would need to be actively seeking work. This does not mean everyone of working age is in employment. Some adults may leave the labour force, for example, women looking after children.

    Sorry, they're wrong. If your not willing to work, your unemployed.
    I am certainly NOT willing to work for FREE.
    1776 > 1984

    The FAILURE of the United States Government to operate and maintain an
    Honest Money System , which frees the ordinary man from the clutches of the money manipulators, is the single largest contributing factor to the World's current Economic Crisis.

    The Elimination of Privacy is the Architecture of Genocide

    Belief, Money, and Violence are the three ways all people are controlled

    Quote Originally Posted by Zippyjuan View Post
    Our central bank is not privately owned.

  11. #39
    Quote Originally Posted by Zippyjuan View Post
    Zerohedge believes we are always in a recession. What is a recession? By definition, two consecutive quarters of declining GDP. Is GDP declining?
    By definition, there's no proof a person who isn't receiving unemployment benefits is visibly looking for work, so they aren't unemployed.

    What makes you think we're impressed by narrow, propaganda-inducing government definitions? In all the years you've been here, we've never once been impressed by them before.

    Quote Originally Posted by Zippyjuan View Post
    I like how Damian gives me reps on these threads but never bothers to post any public responses to me.
    Damian has refuted everything you ever said. He just got tired of refuting it all over and over, as you ignored the fact that your tripe was disproven, and ran off to repost that same tripe in another thread.

    You know. The way trolls do.
    Last edited by acptulsa; 12-10-2018 at 07:23 AM.
    Quote Originally Posted by Swordsmyth View Post
    We believe our lying eyes...

  12. #40
    Quote Originally Posted by acptulsa View Post
    By definition, there's no proof a person who isn't receiving unemployment benefits is visibly looking for work, so they aren't unemployed.

    What makes you think we're impressed by narrow, propaganda-inducing government definitions? In all the years you've been here, we've never once been impressed by them before.



    Damian has refuted everything you ever said. He just got tired of refuting it all over and over, as you ignored the fact that your tripe was disproven, and ran off to repost that same tripe in another thread.

    You know. The way trolls do.
    Receiving or not receiving unemployment benefits does not qualify somebody as unemployed. The don't even ask that question on their unemployment surveys. There are two things which do matter.

    1) Are you currently employed? Did you earn money in the specified time period?

    2) If you are not employed, have you looked for a job?

    If the answer to #1 is yes, then you are in the labor force and employed.

    If the answer to #2 is yes, then you are in the labor force and unemployed. If the answer is "no" then you are not in the labor force. However, to receive unemployment insurance payments, one condition is that you are looking for a job while receiving such payments. You are supposed to provide them a list of places you contacted looking for a job.



  13. Remove this section of ads by registering.
  14. #41
    Quote Originally Posted by Zippyjuan View Post
    Receiving or not receiving unemployment benefits does not qualify somebody as unemployed. The don't even ask that question on their unemployment surveys. There are two things which do matter.

    1) Are you currently employed? Did you earn money in the specified time period?

    2) If you are not employed, have you looked for a job?

    If the answer to #1 is yes, then you are in the labor force and employed.
    Who asks? Whom do they ask?

    Should we add a poll to see who here, if anyone, ever got asked the question by the BLS (or anyone who reports to it) while they weren't working and weren't receiving benefits?

    Nah, let's don't. That wouldn't keep you from making these same debunked arguments in another thread. And another thread. And another...
    Last edited by acptulsa; 12-10-2018 at 01:07 PM.
    Quote Originally Posted by Swordsmyth View Post
    We believe our lying eyes...

  15. #42
    Quote Originally Posted by acptulsa View Post
    Who asks? Whom do they ask?

    Should we add a poll to see who here, if anyone, ever got asked the question by the BLS (or anyone who reports to it) while they weren't working and weren't receiving benefits?

    Nah, let's don't. That wouldn't keep you from making these same debunked arguments in another thread. And another thread. And another...
    Obviously it is impossible to contact every person in the country and ask if they are working every month so they do a select sample. They contact 20,000 new people each month and ask them a series of questions to try to assess if they were either working or looking for work. They follow that same group for three consecutive months with 20,000 being replaced each month for a total of 60,000 people a month surveyed. If you are seriously interested in learning about it, here is a link: https://www.bls.gov/opub/hom/cps/design.htm
    Last edited by Zippyjuan; 12-10-2018 at 01:14 PM.

  16. #43
    Quote Originally Posted by Zippyjuan View Post
    Obviously it is impossible to contact every person in the country and ask if they are working every month so they do a select sample. They contact 20,000 new people each month and ask them a series of questions to try to assess if they were either working or looking for work. They follow that same group for three consecutive months with 20,000 being replaced each month for a total of 60,000 people a month surveyed. If you are seriously interested in learning about it, here is a link: https://www.bls.gov/opub/hom/cps/design.htm
    That link doesn't say whether they get the list from the IRS' new W-4s. Must be fake news.

    Twenty thousand out of 327,741,252. A whopping 0.006% of the population. Quite the margin for error.

    Lies

    Damned Lies

    Government Statistics
    Last edited by acptulsa; 12-10-2018 at 01:25 PM.
    Quote Originally Posted by Swordsmyth View Post
    We believe our lying eyes...

  17. #44
    Quote Originally Posted by acptulsa View Post
    That link doesn't say whether they get the list from the IRS' new W-4s. Must be fake news.

    Twenty thousand out of 327,741,252. A whopping 0.006% of the population. Quite the margin for error.

    Lies

    Damned Lies

    Government Statistics
    No, they don't put together their list from W-4's either. Obviously you are not serious about the discussion and that was the best response you could come up with.

  18. #45
    Quote Originally Posted by Zippyjuan View Post
    No, they don't put together their list from W-4's either.
    No?

    Link?
    Quote Originally Posted by Swordsmyth View Post
    We believe our lying eyes...

  19. #46
    Quote Originally Posted by Zippyjuan View Post
    No, they don't put together their list from W-4's either. Obviously you are not serious about the discussion and that was the best response you could come up with.
    Youre cherry picking your information, as usual, to support a Biased Narrative.

    The truth is that we never recovered from the last recession. Im talking about MAIN STREET. $#@! Wall Street and Govt Statistics.
    1776 > 1984

    The FAILURE of the United States Government to operate and maintain an
    Honest Money System , which frees the ordinary man from the clutches of the money manipulators, is the single largest contributing factor to the World's current Economic Crisis.

    The Elimination of Privacy is the Architecture of Genocide

    Belief, Money, and Violence are the three ways all people are controlled

    Quote Originally Posted by Zippyjuan View Post
    Our central bank is not privately owned.

  20. #47
    Quote Originally Posted by DamianTV View Post
    Youre cherry picking your information, as usual, to support a Biased Narrative.

    The truth is that we never recovered from the last recession. Im talking about MAIN STREET. $#@! Wall Street and Govt Statistics.
    If we ever do recover on Main Street it might happen that Wall Street crashes at the same time.
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankind…it’s people I can’t stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment

  21. #48
    Some things we do know is nobody is cutting govt spending so the debt will continue to increase . The public sector continues to spend everything they make on fast food etc so unemployment should not be a problem as there should be plenty of crappy service jobs . Stocks are over valued a good deal but there is not very many other places for the avg investor to put money with a chance of a return . How will this effect things and when ? I have no idea .
    Do something Danke



  22. Remove this section of ads by registering.
  23. #49
    Quote Originally Posted by DamianTV View Post
    Youre cherry picking your information, as usual, to support a Biased Narrative.

    The truth is that we never recovered from the last recession. Im talking about MAIN STREET. $#@! Wall Street and Govt Statistics.
    Pretty much. Zip reminds me of the economists Rothbard describes in "Man, Economy, And State" who re-defined "depression" out of existence in order not to offend the delicate sensibilities of the Murican public. Our age, just as the 20th century, truly is an age of euphemism.
    Quote Originally Posted by Torchbearer
    what works can never be discussed online. there is only one language the government understands, and until the people start speaking it by the magazine full... things will remain the same.
    Hear/buy my music here "government is the enemy of liberty"-RP Support me on Patreon here Ephesians 6:12

  24. #50
    Quote Originally Posted by heavenlyboy34 View Post
    Pretty much. Zip reminds me of the economists Rothbard describes in "Man, Economy, And State" who re-defined "depression" out of existence in order not to offend the delicate sensibilities of the Murican public. Our age, just as the 20th century, truly is an age of euphemism.
    Zippy is paid to say it isn't a recession unless the GDP goes down.

    He's also paid to deny Fed funny money losing value is a problem, so if the GDP doesn't keep up with inflation, he won't concede that's a recession either.
    Quote Originally Posted by Swordsmyth View Post
    We believe our lying eyes...

  25. #51
    I'll add my voice to those saying we never left the 2008 recession. I know the dictionary term of recession, but all of the statistics are based on massive government money printing, it's similar to saying you "recovered" from being laid off of your job by maxxing out all you credit cards - except in the government's case (or the Fed Res' case) there is no limit on the credit card.
    "The journalist is one who separates the wheat from the chaff, and then prints the chaff." - Adlai Stevenson

    “I tell you that virtue does not come from money: but from virtue comes money and all other good things to man, both to the individual and to the state.” - Socrates

  26. #52
    Quote Originally Posted by DamianTV View Post
    Youre cherry picking your information, as usual, to support a Biased Narrative.

    The truth is that we never recovered from the last recession. Im talking about MAIN STREET. $#@! Wall Street and Govt Statistics.
    How do you define a recession?

  27. #53
    loveshiscountry
    Member

    Quote Originally Posted by Zippyjuan View Post
    How do you define a recession?
    Isn't that the problem? Defining what really matters vs what we are told matters.

  28. #54
    Rumors are 10K Verizon employees are going to be taking buyouts . Anyone know how much they are getting ?
    Do something Danke

  29. #55
    loveshiscountry
    Member

    Quote Originally Posted by oyarde View Post
    Rumors are 10K Verizon employees are going to be taking buyouts . Anyone know how much they are getting ?
    three weeks of pay for each year of service, capped at 60 weeks.

    https://www.cnn.com/2018/12/10/busin...omy/index.html

  30. #56
    My company just laid off 30 people. They list themselves as 500-1000 employees, but that's either B.S. or severely out of date. I'd be surprised at anything north of 200 employees globally. I know until last Friday there were about 100 at HQ, if that.
    "The journalist is one who separates the wheat from the chaff, and then prints the chaff." - Adlai Stevenson

    “I tell you that virtue does not come from money: but from virtue comes money and all other good things to man, both to the individual and to the state.” - Socrates



  31. Remove this section of ads by registering.
  32. #57
    Quote Originally Posted by Zippyjuan View Post
    How do you define a recession?
    Dont try to put this on me. You define everything however you want. One thing is for sure, however you define recession, I will be sure to not define it the same way. You have blown every ounce of trust I have in anything that comes out of your mouth or keyboard.

    Joke: How do you know if Zippy is lying? There are words on your screen.
    1776 > 1984

    The FAILURE of the United States Government to operate and maintain an
    Honest Money System , which frees the ordinary man from the clutches of the money manipulators, is the single largest contributing factor to the World's current Economic Crisis.

    The Elimination of Privacy is the Architecture of Genocide

    Belief, Money, and Violence are the three ways all people are controlled

    Quote Originally Posted by Zippyjuan View Post
    Our central bank is not privately owned.

  33. #58
    In order to be officially in a recession , you would probably have had to already be in one for 8 months or so . Going back over the past 18 years or so though we can see there was really significant growth for a year maybe once or twice so I see no reason for any expectations of anything other than more of the same stagnation until there are major signs of decline .
    Do something Danke

  34. #59
    Going by the official definition re GDP, I'm going to say no; this quarter will still be positive.

    But I expect it to go negative in either Q1 or Q2 of next year.

    The whole world is lurching into recession (the essential reason being the withdrawal of cheap money: the bust phase cometh).

  35. #60
    Quote Originally Posted by r3volution 3.0 View Post
    Going by the official definition re GDP, I'm going to say no; this quarter will still be positive.

    But I expect it to go negative in either Q1 or Q2 of next year.

    The whole world is lurching into recession (the essential reason being the withdrawal of cheap money: the bust phase cometh).
    Ya it would be middle of quarter 3 before it was announced because quarter four is not going to be a negative with Christmas shopping .
    Do something Danke

Page 2 of 3 FirstFirst 123 LastLast


Similar Threads

  1. How to get out of the recession
    By down_south in forum Economy & Markets
    Replies: 3
    Last Post: 07-13-2010, 08:02 PM
  2. The recession is over
    By cbc58 in forum Economy & Markets
    Replies: 1
    Last Post: 10-29-2009, 09:38 AM
  3. Recession ?
    By Exarel in forum Economy & Markets
    Replies: 3
    Last Post: 02-17-2008, 09:03 PM
  4. Recession anyone?
    By heath.whiteaker in forum U.S. Political News
    Replies: 2
    Last Post: 01-11-2008, 05:13 PM
  5. The Recession is HERE!
    By Chomsky in forum U.S. Political News
    Replies: 6
    Last Post: 01-09-2008, 06:35 PM

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •