Midterms - How Many House Seats Will The GOP Lose?

[Aratus]

I will vote if Rev 3.0 promises to change his avatar to a donkey for a year if None is the actual outcome in November.

If Pence becomes president in 2019 because Trump retires or is impeached & convicted,
Could you change your avatar to a donkey for six months after that point in time? On the
flip side of the coin, I will change my avatar to a donkey for a two years if Donald Trump's
Poll numbers by January of 2020 indicate he has at least a ONE IN FIVE chance at the GOP
NOMINATION!!! In other words, he has less than four GOP opponents and high poll numbers!

[oyarde]

I will ask Pence to use me for his Avatar

[Krugminator2]

That really begs the question because I like to gamble- if you have ever gambled before you know that $#@! happens no matter how improbable. That's why with polling i think there is a margin of error that basically says that the percentage is always approximate. Doesn't that mean that 100% isn't always 100%?

Yeah. I think it is part of the reason Nate Silver was a real world practitioner. He played poker for a living and understands risk and probabilities a lot better than all the people who have never had skin in the game.

And of course, Huffington Post is a joke publication and should be completely ignored.

[Aratus]

The Democrats mayhap gain 16 seats...
Just enuff to be 100% politically frustrating
And maybe enuff for a long & banal Senate Trial
Just a lil short of securely flipping the House.
The guy 60 Minutes profiled = Speaker

[Swordsmyth]

Their polls are useless. This idea of a generic ballot is meaningless. People won't be voting on a generic ballot, they will be voting for their specific local representative. I chalk this whole the thing up to the media pushing a "fake it till you make it" mentality.

I suspect the Democrats will be disappointed when they fail to take back the House. Personally I am hoping the Republicans gain even 1 seat, just to destroy them mentally.

It seems to me that Democrats not only have been failing in their elections since 2010, but that they are even more out of step with the public than ever before.

• They gave away the working class vote

• They gave away being champions of the 1st Amendment

• They appear to care more about foreigners than Americans

They have nothing to sell to the public beyond guilt and that has a very limited market. The African-American vote is eroding and former Democrats everywhere are choosing to #WalkAway.

I see the media selling the dream, just as they did for Hillary. Reality was harsh in 2016 and I suspect it will be again in 2018. People like having jobs and more money in their paychecks. Calling Republicans Nazis for 3 years isn't going to get the job done for the left... in my opinion.

I look forward to hearing the lamentations of their women.

[dannno]

I understand your point and don't contest it, you're right, it was a squeaker.

Donald J. Trump won the Electoral College with 304 votes compared to 227 votes for Hillary Clinton.

??

[dannno]

Nominee	George W. Bush	Al Gore
Party	Republican	Democratic
Home state	Texas	Tennessee
Running mate	Dick Cheney	Joe Lieberman
Electoral vote	271	266[2]
States carried	30	20 + DC
Popular vote	50,456,002	50,999,897
Percentage	47.9%	48.4%

Squeaker







That's not a squeaker, this is a squeaker..

Nominee	George W. Bush	John Kerry
Party	Republican	Democratic
Home state	Texas	Massachusetts
Running mate	Dick Cheney	John Edwards
Electoral vote	286[2]	251[2][3]
States carried	31	19 + DC
Popular vote	62,040,610	59,028,444
Percentage	50.7%	48.3%

[r3volution 3.0]

I understand your point and don't contest it, you're right, it was a squeaker.

But it wasn't being reported that way.

I could clog the board with 10,000 more headlines just like 538's that were reporting Hillary as a "sure thing".

And that kind of "reporting" swings polls.

I guess dicking around will cause people to be angry.

On the other hand, what kind of jackass is doing this.

[timosman]

I guess dicking around will cause people to be angry.

On the other hand, what kind of jackass is doing this.

[r3volution 3.0]

304 to 227 electoral college votes. That's a lot better than barely squeaking by.

It's 235 that the GOP has now...

They meed 218.

[r3volution 3.0]

[Aratus]

The DEMOCRATs need at least 220 HOUSE seats to have a comfortable flip?

[Cleaner44]

The number of voting seats in the House of Representatives is currently set at 435.

Republicans = 241
Democrats = 194

241-18=223
194+18=212

241-24=217
194+24=218

Poll is flawed. The difference between gaining 18 seats and taking the house is significant.

241+1 > 194+23

Democrats have to flip 24 seats or this election is a disaster for them. I don't think they will do it. I think they will fail... again.

P.S.
https://www.predictit.org/

[Aratus]

The number of voting seats in the House of Representatives is currently set at 435.

Republicans = 241
Democrats = 194

241-18=223
194+18=212

241-24=217
194+24=218

Poll is flawed. The difference between gaining 18 seats and taking the house is significant.

241+1 > 194+23

Democrats have to flip 24 seats or this election is a disaster for them. I don't think they will do it. I think they will fail... again.

P.S.
https://www.predictit.org/

EXCELLENT POINT. We all look like idiots, we could have done the math.
Impeachment hinges on getting Republicans to turn on Trump if there is
not a HOUSE flip. It was about to happen to Nixon but he cut it all short
by resigning. I think DJT is going to see GOP moderates 'betray' him as
things slowly get worse. Technically "Neo-Cons" are Reagan Democrats.

[Aratus]

A loss of 20 seats places the Democrats within "spitting" distance of a House flip
but it might hand them the means to get an impeachment on DJT. Especially if all
GOP party unity dissolves, the Republican Party may fragment over Trump's guilt.

[r3volution 3.0]

The number of voting seats in the House of Representatives is currently set at 435.

Republicans = 241
Democrats = 194

241-18=223
194+18=212

241-24=217
194+24=218

Poll is flawed. The difference between gaining 18 seats and taking the house is significant.

241+1 > 194+23

Democrats have to flip 24 seats or this election is a disaster for them. I don't think they will do it. I think they will fail... again.

P.S.
https://www.predictit.org/

No, the GOP presently has 235 sears, not 241.

[Aratus]

No, the GOP presently has 235 sears, not 241.

TWENTY SEATs GOING DEMOCRAT CREATES THE SENATE TRIAL ZOO.

[r3volution 3.0]

TWENTY SEATs GOING DEMOCRAT CREATES THE SENATE TRIAL ZOO.

Oh, with the Dems taking a couple dozen seats, things will definitely get zoo-ey.

[Aratus]

In order to not be backlashed on by the voters, they NEED some GOP folk to vote with them.

[eleganz]

At this time, none of the polls matter because the news cycle and what is released in October will dictate the outcome. Democrats do have a lot of momentum right now and the GOP has a massive uphill battle. This mid term is basically yes Trump or no Trump and if Trump wants to win, he essentially has to will it into being.


I don't think the dems have any tricks up their sleeve because they play everything the second its available. The Manafort and Cohen sagas have dried up, Avennatti and Stormy are almost completely forgotten about. I do believe Trump/Sessions will likely break some Clinton/FBI/DOJ collusion stories around October. I used to think that Sessions was being quiet because of blackmail but I think blackmail is too conspiratorial, the simpler explanation is the former and thats why Trump was attacking Sessions on Twitter, just part of a deception play.

That explanation plus every time I counted Trump out, he proved me wrong so I'm going with full GOP control this Nov. The guy knows whats at stake, I think he will campaign even harder than 2016 because holding the house means everything. If I were in Trump's position, I'd campaign to my last breath, there is no other choice.

Who else here thinks that if he gets the China deal done by midterms, its over?

[Cleaner44]

No, the GOP presently has 235 sears, not 241.

No, the GOP presently has 236 seats.

The Democrats currently have 193 seats.

There are 6 seats vacant.

http://clerk.house.gov/member_info/cong.aspx

[Cleaner44]

https://www.predictit.org/Market/270...-2018-midterms

Democratic DEM.HOUSEMAJ.2019	68¢	68¢	67¢	33¢	32¢
Republican REP.HOUSEMAJ.2019	38¢

The Dems are the betting favorites.

Someone here introduced me to PredicitIt back in 2016. The Democrat Hillary Clinton was the betting favorite at .80 to Trump at .20 when I bought my shares. Easy money.

It seems to me that there are a ton of stupid liberals there that are buying whatever BS the media is selling them. Oddly we even have people here doing the same thing.

[Swordsmyth]

You often here the phrase “The presidents party loses an average of 32 House seats in their first midterm”
And because of this, we are to assume that the Republicans will automatically lose the House since the Democrats only need 23 seats to take the House back.
However, after further research by our team- we realized those averages weren’t exactly true. Democrat presidents first midterms have been much worse historically than Republican presidents first midterms- much worse. We did an analysis on every presidents first midterm since WWII, and averaged out how each party has done over time. Here were the results.

On average, Democrat presidents lose 35.2 seats in the House. Republican presidents only lose 11.2 seats in the House in their first midterm on average. Again, this is every president since WWII, so this is a very extensive analysis. We studied all first after each president was elected. Which means, Gerald Ford didn’t ever have a midterm since he wasn’t elected, and Harry Truman didn’t have his first midterm until 1950- since he was first elected in 1948.
So when we hear the old saying “the President always loses the House”- this has been much more hard on Democrat presidents. The worst first midterm we’ve ever seen from a President on this list was President Obama in 2010. As for the Republicans, their last 2 opening midterm have been rather quiet- losing only 7 seats in 1990 and actually gaining 8 seats in 2002 (although much of that has to do with 9/11). But even if we toss out 2002 because it was an anomaly due to 9/11, the Republicans average loss would still only 16.0 seats in the House. Not the 23 seats the Democrats need at a minimum.
Here’s one final thought: The Democrats need 23 seats at a minimum to claim the House back. Only once since WWII have the Republicans ever lost more than 23 seats in their first midterm- and it was 26 seats in 1982. Based on these odds, the Democrats would need something historic to take back the House.

https://etholytics.com/house-seat-lo...at-presidents/

[aGameOfThrones]

I just want the republicans to win for the Liberal Meltdown.

[Aratus]

Swordsmyth... We both know DJT is not politics as usual. There are no rules. Ignore statistics.

[Aratus]

Anything may happen between now and November.
He may see a rebuke in terms of flipped seats or he
may get very lucky and see minimal change as it is.

[timosman]

Paging @devil21 ...

[Aratus]

The poll is closed. Do we need a new one on this topic?

[Pauls' Revere]

how many house seats would the DEMs need to lose for the party to die off?

[Pauls' Revere]

I just want the republicans to win for the Liberal Meltdown.

Right, the show is worth the price of admission.