But the long-term is another question. The Post Carbon Institute says that the EIA’s assumption of strong growth for the next several decades assumes that the industry
will produce all proven oil and gas reserves, “plus a high percentage of unproven resources — in some cases over 100% — by 2050.” Shale oil production, according to the EIA’s 2017 Annual Energy Outlook, won’t peak until the 2040s.
The report says
that scenario is extremely optimistic, and as such, probably won’t happen. The report breaks down the major shale plays to explain why. The Bakken, for instance, is already showing some signs of wear. “Well productivity improvements have flat-lined or decreased in all but two counties,
indicating available well locations are running out,” the Post Carbon Institute report argues.
The Eagle Ford is also strained. The report says that the EIA is overstating its potential, with high well density and high depletion rates likely to limit the region’s ability to keep production elevated through the 2040s. “The EIA
has overestimated play area by 65% compared to the current prospective drilled area,” the report says.
While the Permian is prolific, the report says that the EIA’s long-term assumptions for the Wolfcamp, for instance, rest on “vast additional, as-yet-unknown, resources” to be recovered.
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