"Self-Driving Cars Will Cause Riots" America's First Anti-Automation Candidate

[Swordsmyth]

One New York businessman is mounting what the New York Times describes as a "longer-than-long-shot" bid for the Democratic on a platform that has never before existed in mainstream American politics: America needs to embrace radical change to prevent AI and automation from thrusting millions of Americans into poverty.
His name is Andrew Yang, and he recently founded the organization Venture for America as he gears up for a 2020 run. Yang's philosophy is simple: America needs to radically restructure its society to prevent robots from causing Great Depression-level unemployment...

...At the core of his philosophy is something called the "Freedom Dividend"...essentially a rebranded take on UBI....

To fend off the coming robots, Mr. Yang is pushing what he calls a “Freedom Dividend,” a monthly check for $1,000 that would be sent to every American from age 18 to 64, regardless of income or employment status. These payments, he says, would bring everyone in America up to approximately the poverty line, even if they were directly hit by automation. Medicare and Medicaid would be unaffected under Mr. Yang’s plan, but people receiving government benefits such as the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program could choose to continue receiving those benefits, or take the $1,000 monthly payments instead.

According to Yang, major disruptions in society caused by robots are closer than many Americans understand...

"All you need is self-driving cars to destabilize society," Mr. Yang, 43, said over lunch at a Thai restaurant in Manhattan last month, in his first interview about his campaign. In just a few years, he said, "we’re going to have a million truck drivers out of work who are 94 percent male, with an average level of education of high school or one year of college."
"That one innovation," he continued, "will be enough to create riots in the street. And we’re about to do the same thing to retail workers, call center workers, fast-food workers, insurance companies, accounting firms."
The insight about Trump carrying states with highest automation is very interesting and I would love to see some real analysis on that.
Alarmist? Sure. But Mr. Yang’s doomsday prophecy echoes the concerns of a growing number of labor economists and tech experts who are worried about the coming economic consequences of automation.

As the Times points out - and this week's Wired cover story would appear to support - Yang's anti-tech rhetoric is coming at an opportune time: The tech industry has transformed from a guardian of American optimism and progressive values to a symbol of all the excesses of late capitalism. Even Chamath Palihapitaya, an early Facebook executive, says he feels "tremendous guilt" over having helped create the social network.


More at: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-...nti-automation


The next step is to require you to "do something for the money", that something will be joining the police "reserves" or perhaps O'Bummers "civilian national security force" or the military reserves.

[Anti Federalist]

The next step is to require you to "do something for the money", that something will be joining the police "reserves" or perhaps O'Bummers "civilian national security force" or the military reserves.

At the very least daily exercises or joining the Junior Anti-Sex League, as in 1984

[Swordsmyth]

At the very least daily exercises or joining the Junior Anti-Sex League, as in 1984

Or maybe the internet forum anti-Fake News force, imagine this site overrun with hundreds or thousands of zippys, so many the mods couldn't keep up with the work load of banning them all.

[TheCount]

[Intoxiklown]

This has been the event horizon so to speak when I start to dwelling on this topic, the point where my understanding and views of economics and political philosophy start to fall apart. That's not to say it alters them, but it does leave me at a loss when trying to piece together in how we'll adapt.

He's not wrong about we're within a 5 to 7 year window of seeing any job that involves driving a truck being completely automated, and contrary to some arguments I've seen stating that they can't operate in or around city and other urban environments making it cost prohibitive (which that stance is completely wrong) I am talking about those routes/jobs as well. In all honesty, the time frame I said actually is including private vehicles as well. Automobiles are coming off the lines now with most of the base hardware needed for autonomous operation needing only a few components and the software. By 2025 private autonomous cars will be the norm, and as I said in another post discussing this with AF an agreed time frame is around 2030 we'll begin seeing legislation banning manual driving on highways, freeways, and in some cities (think along the lines of seat belt laws and New York being the odd duck for instituting seat belt laws and where the nation is today).

What he's not saying is the scope of change we'll experience in that same time frame. Because he's not talking about the systems that are already being used in hospitals (imagine your doctor having constant up to date knowledge of all research and papers to apply when trying to diagnose a patient. That system is in it's infancy but it is already here), law offices, engineering jobs, architectural designers, and more. So while he's focused on the guy who "with an average level of education of high school or one year of college.", the real shock to the job market will be when you have people with technical jobs who hold Masters degrees or their Ph.D in fields that takes some work and dedication to educate yourself for find themselves without work.

I know (and agree to an extent) that the response is new jobs and industry will be created by virtue of these changes. But being optimistic and saying these new markets will emerge after only 5 years still means that several million will be doing good to get a job flipping burgers for that period. And while people can cite precedents from other industrial revolutions as a guide for how this new 4th revolution we're watching being born, that argument falls apart when it's accepted that this industrial revolution isn't geared towards moving people faster. It's not geared towards maximizing the farmland able to be cultivated per person. Meaning, this technological advance we're witnessing isn't geared towards a few specific markets. It's geared towards replacing the one thing every single industry has in common.....us.

So there is no buffer zone that can control it's impact on ALL jobs. My stated position on it is the only buffer we have is the speed of evolution with quantum computing because the only thing holding AI back from reaching AGI and ASI soon after is processing power. And we've made strides with quantum computing over the past few years and are accelerating. Throw in the fact that ASI is the Holy Grail for all the world's governments (meaning you have all that funding and priority) we are far more close than people like to think about. I've said before...people have to understand that whichever nation achieves ASI first is forever the world's dominant super power. Even if China beat us to ASI by one hour, due to the exponential growth that system will operate at guarantees that no one will ever catch them.

To me this subject is really hard to come to terms with on a lot of levels. The fear now is autonomous cars, but the things that send shivers down my spine is the technology we'll see evolve from these very humble beginnings. Because if a self driving car signals the end of the world to some people (not implying anyone here is this, mind you) then I don't see how they'll adapt to some serious Frankenstien level science that comes next.

[timosman]

Tough times ahead. AI may replace brown nosing.

[VIDEODROME]

What if this turns into an 'Ethical Slave' economy except the slaves are mindless robots instead. They all do the $#@! work giving human beings more leisure time.

I'm one of those Truck Drivers that might be replaced. If a Robot Truck replaces me and over time does far more work for less pay, what happens to that profit. If it just goes to further enrich the wealthy that would be a ridiculous situation for everyone even the rich.

I would actually be happy if a robot took my job and if instead I was given an opportunity to retrain with my Freedom Dividend. Truck Driving sucks and it's a horrible job many people do just because they've run out of options. It's also really unhealthy.

I somehow finally managed to get into work as a local yard driver and now gradually starting to get my weight back down.

[Intoxiklown]

What if this turns into an 'Ethical Slave' economy except the slaves are mindless robots instead. They all do the $#@! work giving human beings more leisure time.

That is the idea, as well as the argument made to explain the need for a UBI. Basically the sales pitch is we'll become a planet of "business owners" with AI systems being the "CEOs" who run and maintain those businesses for us, and the proposed UBI system is like us getting profit checks from them. And they get around the counter of someone having to build and maintain the AI with the point of the AI being able to produce and maintain itself to meet the criteria we give it, which we're starting to see now (robots building robots and computers writing new software).

A few friends of mine even use that model as a basis to hope the AI decides it doesn't want us here, citing it's logical course from there would be to work to solve propulsion and travel issues related to space travel. They believe a machine conscious would find that to be an easier and higher chance of success scenario than going SkyNet on us....lol. And personally I am of the opinion that space will be our first big steps after AI reaches the scenario point being discussed if for nothing else than for man's need to explore and material needs (planetary colonies and asteroid mining for example).

[Anti Federalist]

This has been the event horizon so to speak when I start to dwelling on this topic, the point where my understanding and views of economics and political philosophy start to fall apart. That's not to say it alters them, but it does leave me at a loss when trying to piece together in how we'll adapt.

He's not wrong about we're within a 5 to 7 year window of seeing any job that involves driving a truck being completely automated, and contrary to some arguments I've seen stating that they can't operate in or around city and other urban environments making it cost prohibitive (which that stance is completely wrong) I am talking about those routes/jobs as well. In all honesty, the time frame I said actually is including private vehicles as well. Automobiles are coming off the lines now with most of the base hardware needed for autonomous operation needing only a few components and the software. By 2025 private autonomous cars will be the norm, and as I said in another post discussing this with AF an agreed time frame is around 2030 we'll begin seeing legislation banning manual driving on highways, freeways, and in some cities (think along the lines of seat belt laws and New York being the odd duck for instituting seat belt laws and where the nation is today).

What he's not saying is the scope of change we'll experience in that same time frame. Because he's not talking about the systems that are already being used in hospitals (imagine your doctor having constant up to date knowledge of all research and papers to apply when trying to diagnose a patient. That system is in it's infancy but it is already here), law offices, engineering jobs, architectural designers, and more. So while he's focused on the guy who "with an average level of education of high school or one year of college.", the real shock to the job market will be when you have people with technical jobs who hold Masters degrees or their Ph.D in fields that takes some work and dedication to educate yourself for find themselves without work.

I know (and agree to an extent) that the response is new jobs and industry will be created by virtue of these changes. But being optimistic and saying these new markets will emerge after only 5 years still means that several million will be doing good to get a job flipping burgers for that period. And while people can cite precedents from other industrial revolutions as a guide for how this new 4th revolution we're watching being born, that argument falls apart when it's accepted that this industrial revolution isn't geared towards moving people faster. It's not geared towards maximizing the farmland able to be cultivated per person. Meaning, this technological advance we're witnessing isn't geared towards a few specific markets. It's geared towards replacing the one thing every single industry has in common.....us.

So there is no buffer zone that can control it's impact on ALL jobs. My stated position on it is the only buffer we have is the speed of evolution with quantum computing because the only thing holding AI back from reaching AGI and ASI soon after is processing power. And we've made strides with quantum computing over the past few years and are accelerating. Throw in the fact that ASI is the Holy Grail for all the world's governments (meaning you have all that funding and priority) we are far more close than people like to think about. I've said before...people have to understand that whichever nation achieves ASI first is forever the world's dominant super power. Even if China beat us to ASI by one hour, due to the exponential growth that system will operate at guarantees that no one will ever catch them.

To me this subject is really hard to come to terms with on a lot of levels. The fear now is autonomous cars, but the things that send shivers down my spine is the technology we'll see evolve from these very humble beginnings. Because if a self driving car signals the end of the world to some people (not implying anyone here is this, mind you) then I don't see how they'll adapt to some serious Frankenstien level science that comes next.

+rep

What happened in industrial revolutions of the past does not apply here.

Mankind had better wrap it's mind around this, and quickly, or we will soon find ourselves in a world of our creation in which we are useless and superfluous.

[Anti Federalist]

I would actually be happy if a robot took my job and if instead I was given an opportunity to retrain with my Freedom Dividend.

That's the rub.

Retrain for what?

I've "trained" my entire adult life learning a very specific skill set that can take decades to learn properly, and document and license. Just to get entry level licenses and documents require over 1080 days of "on the job" training.

That could be thrown out the window in a week with an automation suite.

I'm too old to start that process all over again, just to reach the finish line and be displaced yet again.

This applies to every profession: there is now nothing that is outside the realm of being automated by robotics/computer AI/automation systems.

[pcosmar]

What happened in industrial revolutions of the past does not apply here.

Not sure that is true.
I have long thought the Industrial Revolution was a mistake. (at best horribly mismanaged)
although I have made my way in this world of machines.

I know where the knowledge of machines, the working of metals, weapons of war,,, came from.

Trying to hold to higher principles will become increasingly difficult in a world with a different set.

[CaptUSA]

Apparently, wants will become limited in the future?

Fear always shakes faith. Don't let this happen to you. Human nature is an amazing thing - you don't have to know how it's going to work to know that it will.

[jkr]

[dannno]

+rep

What happened in industrial revolutions of the past does not apply here.

Mankind had better wrap it's mind around this, and quickly, or we will soon find ourselves in a world of our creation in which we are useless and superfluous.

Before the Industrial Revolution, 96% of people were farmers.

Now about 3% of the population are farmers.

That was "us", I don't know what this means "now they are going to replace us".

So they were almost all replaced, they learned something new and now we have a million different jobs people can do besides farming.

Continued automation will free us up to do other jobs.

The abundance automation achieves will bring prices down so things are easy to afford and people don't have to work hard to get them.

[Matt Collins]

+rep

What happened in industrial revolutions of the past does not apply here.

Mankind had better wrap it's mind around this, and quickly, or we will soon find ourselves in a world of our creation in which we are useless and superfluous.

This is nonsensical scaremongering economic ignorance.

When people are freed from having to do low end menial tasks, that gives them the ability to do higher level tasks. Instead of hunting people started farming. Instead of farming they worked in factories. Instead of factories they worked in offices...... the economy will progress forward as it always has.


By the logic I am seeing displayed in this thread, we would be better off with horse and buggies and elevator operators.

[acptulsa]

Apparently, wants will become limited in the future?

Fear always shakes faith. Don't let this happen to you. Human nature is an amazing thing - you don't have to know how it's going to work to know that it will.

It works if we make it work. Technology has advanced far enough in my lifetime to free us from want already. But only the rich got richer. Everyone else got poorer.

Human nature is to make things work for the human who engineers the thing. Whether anyone else benefits or not depends on that human.

By the logic I am seeing displayed in this thread, we would be better off with horse and buggies and elevator operators.

It's awfully hard for a drunk driver to drive a horse off a cliff, because the horse has a sense of self-preservation no machine can yet match. And they're green--if you don't believe me, go look at what comes out their exhaust pipes some time.

As for elevator operators, I don't see why we shouldn't clean up some homeless people and let them do that for a productive living.

Everything is a tradeoff, and we only rarely make the right trade the first time.

[pcosmar]

By the logic I am seeing displayed in this thread, we would be better off with horse and buggies and elevator operators.

Logic is hardly displayed. Emotion Based opinions are on display..
Pseudoscience is on display. Superiority Complexes are on display.

but logic,,might be in the background someplace. usually drowned out by the noise.

[Anti Federalist]

Keep on whistling past the graveyard boyos...I'm old enough to have heard this song and dance a million times already, and have been called a fear mongering crackpot a hundred times over for pointing where things like this are going.

I'll be proved right in the end.

But by then it will be too late.

Collins, you're a good example: how much did you spend to learn how to fly planes?

What are you prepared to spend next decade to learn something that will be displaced in another five years?

If my answers scare you, cease asking frightening questions...wanna talk about fishing instead?

[Anti Federalist]

It works if we make it work. Technology has advanced far enough in my lifetime to free us from want already. But only the rich got richer. Everyone else got poorer.

Human nature is to make things work for the human who engineers the thing. Whether anyone else benefits or not depends on that human.



It's awfully hard for a drunk driver to drive a horse off a cliff, because the horse has a sense of self-preservation no machine can yet match. And they're green--if you don't believe me, go look at what comes out their exhaust pipes some time.

As for elevator operators, I don't see why we shouldn't clean up some homeless people and let them do that for a productive living.

Everything is a tradeoff, and we only rarely make the right trade the first time.

And freedom...how much more liberty does everybody have?

Considering that we are under more intense and complete surveillance than denizens of East Germany were.

[jkr]

Some folks may be forgetting about the patent systems function as a big azz brake on the economic possibilities they perceive in an automated world...that system, and ending the fed, would need to end\ change for all of us to fly our own freak flag

IMHO

[CaptUSA]

It works if we make it work. Technology has advanced far enough in my lifetime to free us from want already. But only the rich got richer. Everyone else got poorer.

Human nature is to make things work for the human who engineers the thing. Whether anyone else benefits or not depends on that human.

So, I agree that things depend on how humans use them, but I think you'd be pretty hard pressed to suggest that only the rich got richer. I mean, it's obvious that they did, but the "poor" are not poor by the same standards as 50 years ago.

Almost all poor people now have the ability to communicate with anyone in the world at a moment's notice. Does this make them richer? Maybe not monetarily, but it certainly enriches their lives compared to 50 years ago.

I remember standing in lines for an hour at the bank when the mill had their payday. Doesn't that extra time enrich our lives?

What about the time I spent at the library frustratingly trying to find the info I needed? Now, we have Youtube videos to help guide us through unfamiliar repairs. (but we also have cats)

I used to buy maps. Grocery store shelves used to be 1/2 empty and I'd spend forever in line as the cashiers keyed each item. I used to use the Post Office to pay bills!

It's hard to argue that anyone is poorer than their counterparts 50 years ago, but like you said, it's all in how you apply that wealth.

[jllundqu]

I am on the same page as AF and Intox....

Eventually human labor will be replaced 100% in some distant future... but in the next 10-20 years let us posit that 40-50% of labor is replaced. You can all speculate on how "the economy will adapt" and "you would have us back in horse and buggy days!" all you want, but the fact is that NO ECONOMY has ever had to cope with both the sheer volume of displacement of such a broad spectrum of labor AND the speed with which it will happen. Imagine 50% of the current labor force put out of a job! Sure I would imagine there would be an incredible amount of new work available to those that would retrain, but not even close to replacing 50% of current workers... this is why even conservative/libertarian economists are discussing things like UBI as a possible outcome (something I think would be HORRIBLE in the long term).

But to simply be dismissive of our new reality and say "Meh... sure it will be fine, after all it worked out in the past!" is to indeed 'whistle past the graveyard.'

[Matt Collins]

Keep on whistling past the graveyard boyos...I'm old enough to have heard this song and dance a million times already, and have been called a fear mongering crackpot a hundred times over for pointing where things like this are going.

I'll be proved right in the end.

But by then it will be too late.

Collins, you're a good example: how much did you spend to learn how to fly planes?

What are you prepared to spend next decade to learn something that will be displaced in another five years?

If my answers scare you, cease asking frightening questions...wanna talk about fishing instead?

As far as aviation goes, it will be decades, and even then unlikely with passengers on board.

Trains aren't even automated yet, and that could have been done 15+ years ago.

[timosman]

As far as aviation goes, it will be decades, and even then unlikely with passengers on board.

Trains aren't even automated yet, and that could have been done 15+ years ago.

Self-driving trains to run on London’s rail network for first time - https://www.standard.co.uk/news/tran...-a3653096.html

[Anti Federalist]

I am on the same page as AF and Intox....

Eventually human labor will be replaced 100% in some distant future... but in the next 10-20 years let us posit that 40-50% of labor is replaced. You can all speculate on how "the economy will adapt" and "you would have us back in horse and buggy days!" all you want, but the fact is that NO ECONOMY has ever had to cope with both the sheer volume of displacement of such a broad spectrum of labor AND the speed with which it will happen. Imagine 50% of the current labor force put out of a job! Sure I would imagine there would be an incredible amount of new work available to those that would retrain, but not even close to replacing 50% of current workers... this is why even conservative/libertarian economists are discussing things like UBI as a possible outcome (something I think would be HORRIBLE in the long term).

But to simply be dismissive of our new reality and say "Meh... sure it will be fine, after all it worked out in the past!" is to indeed 'whistle past the graveyard.'

Exactly.

The ramifications of this will be huge, massive and will radically alter human existence in ways that can only be imagined.

Done wrong, it could be the death knell for individual liberty forever, plunging the world into a "dark age" from which it may never recover.

[Anti Federalist]

As far as aviation goes, it will be decades, and even then unlikely with passengers on board.

Trains aren't even automated yet, and that could have been done 15+ years ago.

Huh?

Automated trains/trams/trolleys are in service all over the world and in many places in this country, carrying millions of people annually.

And heavy haul freights have passed the "fully automated" Rubicon last year.

Ships will start running without any human crew next year.

And the Navy has already started with a combat ship with no crew (Hello Skynet)

Getcher head outta yer ass Collins, this $#@! is not coming decades from now, it is here.

And we better come up with way to deal with the fallout.

[Anti Federalist]

As far as aviation goes, it will be decades, and even then unlikely with passengers on board.

What do you base that on? Personal wishing?

The technology is already here, Boeing has tested automated planes already.

In ten years I can see the PIC's role reduced to nothing more than a monitor: the whole flight op will be automated from gate to gate.

[jllundqu]

Interesting:

http://reason.com/archives/2017/06/0...le-idea-of-the

[Intoxiklown]

As far as aviation goes, it will be decades, and even then unlikely with passengers on board.

Trains aren't even automated yet, and that could have been done 15+ years ago.

You are grossly misinformed about this, my friend.

Boeing bets big on flying taxis and pilotless planes
October 5, 2017
The aerospace giant is buying Aurora Flight Sciences, a maker of automated drones and aviation parts, in a bid to bring increased automation to airliners, military drones and even personal air taxis.

Story at link: http://money.cnn.com/2017/10/05/news...ex.html?iid=EL


People are now flying around in autonomous drones
February 8, 2018

Chinese company Ehang offered a glimpse this week of what could lie ahead, releasing its first video of passengers climbing aboard its autonomous drones and taking off with the push of a button.

It's one of a bunch of companies racing to bring their different versions of computer-controlled airborne taxis to market. The contenders include big plane makers like Boeing (BA) and lesser-known startups.

More at source: http://money.cnn.com/2018/02/08/tech...one/index.html

I'm a pilot as well, flying since the age of 15 (not sure how it is now or other states, but in Mississippi you could get your pilot's license at age 16), and while I'm not a jet pilot I am multi engine rated. And as someone who has a lot of hours in the air that also has a professional background in robotic automation I can assure you that autonomous aircraft is far easier done than automobiles. And I'll bet you a coca-cola that no later than 2028-2035 (2035 being a large buffer window on when it's just part of commercial flight) that commercial air travel will be alien to you.

[Anti Federalist]

I'm a pilot as well.

So am I, been flying since my early 20s, I hold a CDL with a hazmat, I am a "master mariner" having been tested and licensed as an Officer in Charge of a Navigation Watch in both engineering and deck ratings and I am currently working toward a "mobile steam boiler" operator's certification to operate steam locomotives.

This is not an "I love me" wall, but simply a statement of qualifications to suggest that I, like you, pretty much know what we are talking about when it comes to things transportation related.

And I honestly do not think people are thinking this through all the way, and turning a blind eye towards how bad this can turn out.