Mexico.

[Stratovarious]

^ This ^ on the RonPaulForums.

SwordShill, just when I think you can’t come up with anything more imbecile... you never cease to amaze me.

I'm guessing he may have injected a little bit of hyperbole in that statement.
let me ask you , what do you do here, I honestly don't know yet........

[Swordsmyth]

^ This ^ on the RonPaulForums.

SwordShill, just when I think you can’t come up with anything more imbecile... you never cease to amaze me.

Move to Venezuela and fight for Maduro and then tell us how wonderful it is down there.

We will keep the communists out of America with GOD's help and well protected border.

[Swordsmyth]

I'm guessing he may have injected a little bit of hyperbole in that statement.

A little perhaps but Mexico is already a hostile country that works to destroy us and it will only get worse if they go full commie.

let me ask you , what do you do here, I honestly don't know yet........

Mostly he argues for anarchy and open borders so that communists can come here in the millions and impose communism on us.

It would be tyrannical of us to stop them.

[PAF]

I'm guessing he may have injected a little bit of hyperbole in that statement.
let me ask you , what do you do here, I honestly don't know yet........

What I want done goes unheard, unless we get a groundswell. Stop meddling in others affairs. Stop threatening/promoting/assisting forced unionization, which folks and business owners I know down in Mexico do not want. Begin trading freely and setting the example for others to follow. Things may take time but failure to do so will certainly ensure our own demise.

[PAF]

A little perhaps but Mexico is already a hostile country that works to destroy us and it will only get worse if they go full commie.

Mostly he argues for anarchy and open borders so that communists can come here in the millions and impose communism on us.

It would be tyrannical of us to stop them.

Putting false words into my mouth doesn’t make me look the fool, it makes you one.

I advocate ending incentives and promoting Free Market solutions, along with my post above.

[Swordsmyth]

Putting false words into my mouth doesn’t make me look the fool, it makes you one.

I advocate ending incentives and promoting Free Market solutions, along with my post above.

There is no contradiction between what I posted and what you posted and your conversations with me have made your position quite clear.
You oppose any positive measures to control the border or immigration in spite of the fact that millions of communists will come here even if we end the incentives and the foreign meddling.

[PAF]

There is no contradiction between what I posted and what you posted and your conversations with me have made your position quite clear.

That’s your first contradiction.

You oppose any positive measures to control the border or immigration in spite of the fact that millions of communists will come here even if we end the incentives and the foreign meddling.

That’s your second.

[Swordsmyth]

That’s your first contradiction.




That’s your second.

[Stratovarious]

What I want done goes unheard, unless we get a groundswell. Stop meddling in others affairs. Stop threatening/promoting/assisting forced unionization, which folks and business owners I know down in Mexico do not want. Begin trading freely and setting the example for others to follow. Things may take time but failure to do so will certainly ensure our own demise.

I agree with everything you said here with two caveats, on drawn for a post you
wrote after this one;

1- Free Trade YES of course, but tariffs are a two way street, if Mexico can agree
to cut all tariffs then yes, done.
2- Cut all incentives YES, absolutely , I've been screaming this for years, and jail / fine
offending employers.
-
The good thing about being open and flexible to new input and fact gathering is that
I , personally (redundant I realize) came to the realization that cutting incentives is
only part of the issue , another much larger part is the fact that we have way too many
inherent NATURAL-INCENTIVES enticing illegals to come here.
I also will add the fact that the freebie gifts are not going away anytime soon, we have
a crisis , we can't keep out terrorists, diseased, felons, gang bangers, you name it,
without better border security and a wall is going to be part of that security.

The 'Free Market' approach to Borders is an 'E' ticket to the next 3r world shthole,
that is fact.

[PAF]

2- Cut all incentives YES, absolutely , I've been screaming this for years, and jail / fine
offending employers.


The 'Free Market' approach to Borders is an 'E' ticket to the next 3r world shthole,
that is fact.

Jail/fine employers opposes Free Market principles. I believe that Contract Rights should apply and it is no business of mine or the government who employers hire.

[Stratovarious]

I agree with everything you said here with two caveats, on drawn for a post you
wrote after this one;

1- Free Trade YES of course, but tariffs are a two way street, if Mexico can agree
to cut all tariffs then yes, done.
2- Cut all incentives YES, absolutely , I've been screaming this for years, and jail / fine
offending employers.
-
The good thing about being open and flexible to new input and fact gathering is that
I , personally (redundant I realize) came to the realization that cutting incentives is
only part of the issue , another much larger part is the fact that we have way too many
inherent NATURAL-INCENTIVES enticing illegals to come here.
I also will add the fact that the freebie gifts are not going away anytime soon, we have
a crisis , we can't keep out terrorists, diseased, felons, gang bangers, you name it,
without better border security and a wall is going to be part of that security.

The 'Free Market' approach to Borders is an 'E' ticket to the next 3r world shthole,
that is fact.

Jail/fine employers opposes Free Market principles. I believe that Contract Rights should apply and it is no business of mine or the government who employers hire.

No offence PAF, but when a guy practically writes a 'book' and you
respond with a one liner bubble gum wrapper meme, I can't possibly
take you seriously.

[PAF]

No offence PAF, but when a guy practically writes a 'book' and you
respond with a one liner bubble gum wrapper meme, I can't possibly
take you seriously.

No offense taken, Strat. I am a man of few words, very well grounded in my positions, and figure you guys here on the forum can form your own conclusions. I'm not really here to write books or change minds as much as I am here to throw a thought out for folks to ponder.

If you have more direct questions I would be happy to try to answer the best that I can.


I agree with most of what you wrote which is why I omitted some of it.

[Stratovarious]

No offense taken, Strat. I am a man of few words, very well grounded in my positions, and figure you guys here on the forum can form your own conclusions. I'm not really here to write books or change minds as much as I am here to throw a thought out for folks to ponder.

If you have more direct questions I would be happy to try to answer the best that I can.


I agree with most of what you wrote which is why I omitted some of it.

Right , I get it, I just see so many here with the hit n' run one liners that a 9 year old
can come up with, it gets annoying, I believe you are one of the sincere ones, even though
I can't get behind open borders.

[PAF]

Right , I get it, I just see so many here with the hit n' run one liners that a 9 year old
can come up with, it gets annoying, I believe you are one of the sincere ones, even though
I can't get behind open borders.

Likewise. There are a few quality posters that I make a point to follow each day, you are def one of them. I'm out of + Rep for you so I owe you one.

[Stratovarious]

Likewise. There are a few quality posters that I make a point to follow each day, you are def one of them. I'm out of + Rep for you so I owe you one.

ha ha, I'm out of reps for you as well.
Forgive me in the future if I get a bit wild , I forget who is who from time to time,
and just get cranky.

[angelatc]

^ This ^ on the RonPaulForums.

SwordShill, just when I think you can’t come up with anything more imbecile... you never cease to amaze me.

How do you envision it working out?

[PAF]

How do you envision it working out?

Here’s an answer you’ll like:

By sacrificing every principle and going along with the statists in charge. It’s going that way anyway, requires no effort, and causes no waves. And it’s certain to work.

[Swordsmyth]

Mexico's National Commission for Regulatory Improvement is considering raising the regulatory burden for private fuel importers to obtain import permits, Milenio reported Feb. 20. Among other measures, the changes will oblige importers to present more detailed information on fuel transportation and storage, as well as the personal identification and tax identification documents of the importers and at least two clients.

The regulatory change is intended to impede private fuel imports to Mexico and will restrict the ability of non-public retail chains to enter the country.

More at: https://worldview.stratfor.com/situa...rt-regulations

The US campaign to destroy Mexico is well under way.

[Swordsmyth]

Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador has said his government will not permit any new joint ventures for oil production between state-owned energy company Petroleos Mexicanos (Pemex) and private companies, Reuters reported Feb. 21. Lopez Obrador added that new joint ventures would not be allowed until existing investments begin their production.

More at: https://worldview.stratfor.com/situa...-pemex-private

[Swordsmyth]

One of the seven members on the governing panel of Mexico’s National Hydrocarbons Commission (CNH) has stepped down citing personal reasons halfway through his term, Reuters reports, adding this could give more power over the country’s oil industry to President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador.
All commissioners from the National Hydrocarbons Commission are nominated by the president of the country and need to be approved by the Senate. In the last three months another two members of the commission have also resigned: its president, Juan Carlos Zepeda, who was nominated by the Pena Nieto government, left in November. In that same month another member of the regulator, Hector Acosta, left it to accept another government position.
At the time, Reuters recalls, these resignations caused worry that once elected, Obrador would hold a major sway over the energy regulatory body as he nominates for commissioners people close to him and his approach to the energy industry. This is actually why commissioners on the CNH serve terms that overlap but do not coincide with the terms of Mexico’s presidents, as a way of ensuring relative independence. Now that Obrador would get to nominate not one but three new commissioners, there may be some justification to the worry.

More at: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-N...teps-Down.html

[Swordsmyth]

Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador has said he will cancel a planned open pit gold mine in Los Cardones, Baja California Sur state, after local residents opposed the project, La Politica Online reported March 3. Lopez Obrador initially planned to hold a referendum regarding the mine, but ultimately decided against it due to a lack of authority to proceed with the vote.

Lopez Obrador's latest decision to cancel a mining project highlights the ever-growing risk to private investments posed by the president's assertion of authority to cancel and expropriate projects that face local resistance.

More at: https://worldview.stratfor.com/situa...california-sur
@angelatc

[Swordsmyth]

Mexico will lose billions as a result of the new government’s decision to delay oil and gas auctions while it reviews all contracts awarded by the previous government over the three years since it began holding auctions for oil and gas blocks.
"Every year you don't have a bidding, it's going to cost you $1 billion," said a commissioner from Mexico’s hydrocarbons commission, Hector Moreira Rodriguez, as quoted by S&P Global Platts.
Yet the losses would not just be directly financial. A delay in tenders will also interfere with President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador’s plans to boost Mexico’s oil production to 2.4 million bpd by 2024. According to Rodriguez, with the delay, the country’s crude oil production will grow by 300,000 bpd less over the next ten years than otherwise.


Yet, according to industry insiders who talked to S&P Global Platts, even if the auctions are renewed before all contracts are reviewed, chances are Mexico will not be able to reach its production growth goals.
The reasons for this are natural depletion at legacy fields and an insufficient number of new discoveries. This should make the resumption of auctions all the more necessary if anything, especially coupled with the government’s ambition to reduce the country’s reliance on imported natural gas from the United States.

More at: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-N...ion-Delay.html

[Swordsmyth]

Mexico's Congress has approved a constitutional reform to create a national guard, Reuters reported March 14. At the same time, the lower house has passed a separate charter reform proposal to facilitate more frequent referendums, including a popular vote on whether to keep the president in power, after President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador indicated that he intends to hold such a referendum in 2021.

More at: https://worldview.stratfor.com/situa...form-proposals

[Swordsmyth]

Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador has said he would order federal authorities to stop awarding new mining concessions, La Jornada reported March 18.

More at: https://worldview.stratfor.com/situa...ng-concessions

[Swordsmyth]

The Mexican government plans to use money from a public income stabilization fund to help reduce the sizeable debt pile that state energy major Pemex has accumulated.
Reuters reports, quoting the country’s deputy finance minister, that the fund is worth US$15.4 billion and the government plans to make it “counter cyclical.”
“We’d like to design it as a counter cyclical fund, like the copper funds in Chile are designed, where the resources are used not when the government wants to, but when the economy makes them necessary... In times of abundance, you put money into these resources,” Arturo Herrera said, adding “As a second part of the fund, we’d like to use it to pay some of the debt obligations that Pemex has.”
The state company has around US$16 billion in bond payments due by the end of 2020, but its total debt is over US$100 billion. In an effort to slim this down, earlier this year the Obrador administration said it would inject US$3.6 billion into the company in the form of debt refinancing and tax cuts.
The injection should also help Pemex boost local oil and gas production as a means of improving revenues and income despite a suspension of new oil and gas block tenders while the administration reviews the contracts the Pena-Nieto government signed with foreign oil companies in a bid to reverse a consistent decline in production.

More at: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-N...emex-Debt.html

[Swordsmyth]

Opposition parties in Mexico's Senate are refusing to provide the necessary two-thirds support to approve President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador's nominees for the Energy Regulatory Commission (CRE), La Politica Online reported March 21.

Withholding support for Lopez Obrador's nominees remains the only tool for Mexico's opposition to pressure the president into modifying or entirely abandoning his proposed referendum reform.

More at: https://worldview.stratfor.com/situa...nergy-watchdog

[Pauls' Revere]

Withholding support for Lopez Obrador's nominees remains the only tool for Mexico's opposition to pressure the president into modifying or entirely abandoning his proposed referendum reform.

I disagree,

https://www.ranker.com/list/famous-a...co/david-jones

[Swordsmyth]

While Mexico suffered the bloodiest year of violent deaths in 2018, even bigger trouble may be ahead for the embattled country. For the first time in more than 50 years, Mexico has become a net importer of oil. This is undoubtedly bad news for the Mexican Government as it has relied upon its oil revenues to fund a large percentage of its public spending.
And, the majority of these revenues came from just one prolific oil field. After the discovery of the huge Cantarell Oil Field in the Gulf of Mexico in 1976, Mexico's oil production surged from 894,000 barrels per day to a peak of 3.8 million barrels per day (mbd) in 2004. That year, Mexico's net oil exports exceeded 1.8 mbd.
Unfortunately, the downturn of Mexico's oil production was also due to the peak and decline of the Cantarell Oil Field, which topped out at 2.1 mbd in 2004 and is now below 135,000 barrels per day:

With the rapid decline in Cantarell's oil production, Mexico's net oil exports also plummeted from 1.8 mbd in 2004 to only 314,000 barrels per day in 2017. However, the situation for Mexico's net oil exports continued to deteriorate in 2018 as its domestic oil supply fell to a new low at the end of the year.
According to several sources, the BP 2018 Statistical Review, IEA's OMR Reports, and the EIA's data on World Oil Production, Mexico became a net oil importer in November 2018:

I find it strange that this has not yet been mentioned in the news as it is a very critical factor for the future of Mexico. Now, I would like to qualify that the data I am using is accurate. I found Mexico's total petroleum production and consumption data from the EIA, the U.S. Energy Information Agency's World Oil Production Browser, the IEA's, the International Energy Agency OMR Reports, and BP's 2018 Statistical Review.
In just a little more than a year, Mexico's net oil exports fell from 314,000 barrels per day to net imports of 90,000 barrels per day in December 2018. This next chart shows Mexico's total oil supply versus consumption for each month in 2018:

Of course, we don't know if Mexico will be able to increase production, but if we consider the disaster that is taking place at PEMEX, the country's national oil company, I highly doubt domestic oil production will recover. Why? Well, let's just say, PEMEX is on the verge of bankruptcy as the company published two troubling signs in its Q4 2018 Financial Report:

1. Falling Oil Production
2. Rising Long-Term Debt

According to PEMEX's Q4 2018 Report, oil production fell from 1.90 mbd Q4 2017 to 1.76 mbd in Q4 2018. These figures are for oil production only and do not include NGPL (natural gas plant liquids) and refining gains. Which is why it doesn't add up to the 1.94 mbd for December 2018 shown in the chart above.
Regardless, oil production continues to decline at PEMEX while it's long-term debt reached a new record high of $96 billion last year:

So, even with all the additional capital expenditures, (shown by the massive increase in long-term debt), PEMEX was not able to prevent the inevitable decline of its domestic oil production. What happens to PEMEX when oil production really starts to decline?
Sadly, as domestic oil supply continues to decline, the Mexican Government will have lower oil revenues to support its public spending. I believe Mexico is likely one of the next OIL DOMINOS to fall... and it won't be pretty.


More at: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-...t-oil-importer

[Pauls' Revere]

March 30, 2019.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/...mp/3309462002/

EL PASO – Under a bridge connecting the U.S. with Mexico, dozens of migrant families cram into a makeshift camp set up by U.S. Customs and Border Protection. The families are there because permanent processing facilities have run out of room.

Seven hundred miles east, busload after busload of weary, bedraggled migrants crowd into the Catholic Charities Humanitarian Respite Center in McAllen, Texas. Organizers there are used to handling 200 to 300 migrants a day. Lately, the migrants have been arriving at a clip of around 800 a day, overflowing the respite center and straining city resources.

“It’s staggering,” McAllen City Manager Roy Rodriguez said. “Really, we’ve never seen anything like this before.”

Along the Texas border with Mexico – from El Paso to Eagle Pass to the Rio Grande Valley – masses of migrants have been crossing the border in unprecedented numbers, overwhelming federal holding facilities and sending local leaders and volunteers scrambling to deal with the relentless waves of people.

[Swordsmyth]

Mexico's ruling National Regeneration Movement (Morena) coalition is planning a constitutional reform to expand the country's Supreme Court from 11 to 16 ministers and make the five new members part of a specialized anti-corruption body within the court, La Silla Rota reported April 4.

A successful reform to add new ministers to Mexico's Supreme Court would likely grant President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador greater control of the court by appointing politically aligned ministers. Adding five anti-corruption ministers to the court could also allow the administration to enact politically motivated investigations and continue them despite negative rulings by lower level courts.

More at: https://worldview.stratfor.com/situa...-supreme-court