Originally Posted by
AZJoe
I doubt it would be the cakewalk you envision. And it is not as simple as simply counting beans. Its more a comparison of apples to oranges. Despite its advanced weapons and money, remember Washington’s great war machine lost in Korea and Vietnam. After 16 years, it is losing in Afghanistan. It’s proxy war to overthrow Syria is now all but embers.
Let’s compare some of the differences from Iraq. Iran is more than three and a half times the area of Iraq. And it is far more mountainous and varied terrain. It does not allow for easy fast ground invasion, and more lengthy, risky and difficult air raids. It is far more defensible terrain.
Iran is also more than twice the population of Iraq, and the population is unified. Iran is not the fractured Sunni – Shia – Kurds factions that were in Iraq. Iran is an ancient nation. Iran is not a made up country of artificial borders dreamed up by Western nations squeezing together a mish mash hodge podge of separate nations and varying groups. Washington would not have Shia and Kurd factions rising up to fight the government forces during the invasion. Iran has a population that is overwhelmingly ethnically and religiously homogeneous. Nor would you likely have generals and military so quick to surrender like many of the Baathist of Iraq that had little true loyalty to Saddam. The population would be effectively unified in resisting the invaders.
Also, Iran’s military is not the backwater brigades of the 1980s when Washington instigated and supported Saddam Hussein’s failed invasion of Iran. Since that time their defenses are substantially improved. Plus Iran and other nations have had the past two decades of opportunity to watch study and plan for Washington's military tactics, chain of command, logistics, assault, invasions, weapons, coordination, SOP, in action because Washington has actively been invading, attacking and warring with other nations continuously since that time.
First Washington’s modus operendi of bombing of nations with no effective air defense against Washington’s air superiority would not exist. While Iran has a modest air force of over 450 operational jets and military aircraft, it would not scramble them to go toe to doe with US air force. Over the past twenty years, Iran has hardened, buried and concealed the most valuable military, government and civilian targets. Washington would not simply obliterate all targets in 24 hours. Remember Washington launched the most concentrated bombing raids for 78 days straight against Yugoslavia yet Serbian forces survived virtually unscathed. That is when Washington decided to really up the rain of terror by targeting civilian targets while offering a deal to Milosevic. Basically Washington resorted to openly using terrorism to get the deal it wanted.
Also remember air superiority is not the be all end all Washington would have everyone believe. Hezbollah had no air force at all, and made zero use of their air defenses (save for manpads) but nevertheless delivered to the Israelis their most crushing defeat in history during Israel’s 2006 attack on Lebanon.
Iran has developed both high tech and low costs countermeasures to a Washington invasion including GPS-spoofing, disruption, electronic counter-measures warfare, advanced mine warfare, small boat operations and, missile strikes dramatically increasing the costs damage and risk of any Washington invasion of any portion of the Iranian territory.
Iran now has the very advanced S-300 air defense systems which can effectively negate any US aircraft. Multiple invading US aircraft would be rapidly destroyed. It would be very costly. In addition, Iran has other effective missile technology. They do not need to hit Washington jets in flight but can target the airfields and ships from which they launch.
Iran has developed low cost high speed attack boats, which although useless for long range open water actions are very effective for purely defensive coastal water defenses, as well as advanced mine technology to keep Washington's naval power out of Iranian coastal waters. In addition Iran has effective coastal submarine technology. While none of these items have any effective blue water uses, they are extremely effective for coastal defense. Washington’s blue water naval power is effectively equalized or neutralized the coastal Persian waters.
Iran has an active military force of half a million all based in Iran, plus 300,000 military reserves, plus a population of at least 11 million men qualified for military duty. Its armor is not so advanced, but it would be more difficult for Washington to launch a heavy armor invasion into Iran. Even if they did, as Hezbollah has repeatedly shown, in the right terrain, infantry is more then effective at defeating armor.
Logistics work in Iran’s favor. Time works in Iran’s favor. It won’t be any two week campaign in and out. Washington has not the logistic staying power for a long term heavy campaign 7,000+ miles from home. It is especially costly with Washington already spread so thin with active provocations in Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, now starting in Korea, and to a lesser extent in at least a half dozen other locales. Iran is self sustaining if necessary – fuel, food, energy, materials. It was forced to develop self sufficiency under Washington's prolonged sanctions war which of course failed. However it is unlikely Iran would be isolated. Trade would likely continue with many nations including such large nations as China, India, Russia.
Iran has also received observer member status in the Shangai Cooperation Organization and is on the road to full membership. If it did not receive direct military support from China and Russia, it would receive indirect support in the form of weapons, technology, intelligence, and advisers.
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