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Thread: The Most Important Part of the Campaign (How Can Ron Paul Close the Deal?)

  1. #1
    1836
    Member

    The Most Important Part of the Campaign (How Can Ron Paul Close the Deal?)

    The most important part of the campaign is coming up in just a few weeks. It's the last three to four weeks before the vote is taken. Here is a little secret about campaigning, which isn't really a secret.

    A very large number of voters, often a plurality, do not truly decide their vote until the final days or week of the campaign.

    Although this is fairly well known, it is rarely properly seized upon by political campaigns, which all too often flame out months before the actual vote takes place. Many of the most successful political campaigns do not ramp up until near the end; the very best combine a strong early-recognition strategy with an outreach effort that builds towards the end of the campaign that ultimately has the goal of "peaking" on election day.

    The best example of a campaign that executed this strategy 100% perfectly is Scott Brown's victory over Martha Coakley in Massachusetts early last year. Brown's campaign hit on all the right fundamentals early on, built strong name ID, and closed the deal down the stretch. A campaign that was (rightly) given no chance of winning Ted Kennedy's seat found itself within ten points with a few weeks to go, and several points up on election night.

    Ron Paul is polling in the low double digits in Iowa and New Hampshire, each a week apart from the other, and Iowa setting a lot of the "tone" for the New Hampshire contest. If the cards are played correctly, Ron Paul could almost certainly turn that support into a caucus win – and, very possibly, a strong New Hampshire finish (i.e., in the 20s, perhaps no more than 10-15 points behind Romney, which would be essentially a win). Doing these two things would build the momentum for the rest of the campaign.

    I am going to make a post before long analyzing the Iowa caucus threshold to victory, but for now, what political considerations must be employed to ensure that we finish strong?

    How Can Ron Paul Close the Deal?

    The official campaign almost certainly has a good strategy in place for how to do this, I can only assume. However, we as a grassroots owe it to ourselves to keep our efforts in line with theirs and to similarly work with them on "closing the deal" in the final weeks of the campaign. Here are a few things to keep in mind as that period rapidly approaches, a few things that we and the campaign both will need to focus on in order to win in Iowa.

    • Early money is much better than late money. Media buys for the final week or so of the campaign need to be in at least two to three weeks before that, and therefore fundraising must be strong before the Dec. 16 moneybomb.
    • Door knocking is invaluable. Especially late in a campaign, a good one-on-one personal impression with a candidate or a friendly campaign volunteer is truly the most effective thing that anyone can do in order to boost their chances of victory. Ron Paul's campaign and our grassroots need to coordinate an awesome door-to-door effort that focuses on voters who are likely caucus attendees, especially likely-to-caucus independent voters, with whom we have strong support.
    • Educational efforts are worthless at some point. As the days tick down towards the caucus, the effort to "inform" and "convert" voters has to stop. I would say that after the first week of December, the entire focus must be on turning out identified voters, and finding un-ID'd voters. Not a one of us cannot afford to waste time trying to show people how Ron Paul is right on Iran, or something similar. If they haven't learned it by then, they won't in time, and your efforts are better spent figuring out how to get-out-the-vote.
    • Phone call efforts are extremely important, and timeliness of the efforts even moreso. Right now, the phone efforts are targeted at Voter ID. The campaign is trying to figure out "who are our supporters?" Those efforts are exceptionally important but really cannot go much beyond the middle of December. At that point, it becomes more worth the campaign's while to maintain contact with already ID'd voters and ensure turnout via the phone effort. You still have many voters deciding at that point, but it is impossible to ID and then reach out to a huge new subset of voters within a few weeks' time.
    • Paid media must crest in the final week. The campaign certainly knows this, but all paid media (including grassroots efforts) should really build up to crest during that final week before the caucus.
    • Focus on effective methods of outreach, as opposed to ineffective ones. Sign-waving is fun, but hardly effective. Same goes with other kinds of efforts which seek to somehow stick "Ron Paul" out in front of someone. For all the time you could be spending in the final weeks of the campaign spray painting something or floating a colored balloon, you could be shaking hands with prospective voters at a local event, knocking doors, or making calls.
    • STAY ON MESSAGE. This is so important it deserves a little extra attention. So many campaigns, including the 2007-2008 Ron Paul campaign, get sidetracked as the last days of the campaign tick away. For Ron Paul in 2007, it was a disastrous Meet the Press interview and the old newsletter controversy that had the campaign answering allegations of racism, irrelevant issues like the Civil Rights bill, and other things. For our campaign to win, no matter what happens, both the campaign and WE especially have to STAY ON MESSAGE. Stick to our talking points, stick to our guns, don't get sidetracked. Whether you are on the phone, at a door, at a party, or speaking at the caucus, don't go down rabbit holes and DO NOT get into non-advantageous issues. That brings me to another point.
    • Positive, winning issues should be the focus. We are blessed to have a candidate in Ron Paul who KNOWS his stuff. And he sure talks about it... on every little minutiae and detail of everything that he is asked about. Unfortunately, this gets him involved talking about issues that are losers for us. Same thing happens with our grassroots... how many times have you seen Ron Paul supporters miss a golden opportunity to win a vote because of an insistence on talking about the Fed, or the gold standard, or foreign policy, or something to that effect, when the voter only needed to hear Paul's pro-life stance or his strong pro-austerity fiscal policy? If you think it is principled to focus on losing issues then you are wrong. The Fed this year is certainly more of a winning issue, but I recall being in New Hampshire in 2008, whereupon I heard supporters talking about the Fed to potential voters who couldn't have cared less. FOCUS ON BIG, SWEEPING PRINCIPLES. RON PAUL: CUT A TRILLION DOLLARS, BALANCE THE BUDGET, CREATE JOBS. This is what we need in the final days. The less we bring out about Ron Paul to an undecided voter that might turn them off, the better!
    • Encourage hardcore supporters to become delegates. While the delegate process is such that someone will have to be a died-in-the-wool supporters to jump on board with it, those individuals are easy to identify (by donation lists, volunteering lists, etc.) and must be informed of their responsibility to participate in the delegate process if they are able to. Ultimately, the delegates in most states will be the deciding factor in actual support throughout the process. We can't worry about the how and why of that right now. But we can make sure that our diehard supporters are aware of the delegate process.
    • Keep your cool. The final days of a campaign are stressful. It is natural to be nervous and unsure of victory, to feel a little insecure even. But you cannot allow this to in any way detract from your efforts or putting in the best job you can at the end. If we in the grassroots think it is stressful, then we should not forget that the campaign itself is feeling that stress a million times over. But none of us – not the campaign nor our volunteers – can lose hope and give up. This is why maintaining composure is so important. This means when you speak with voters, keep a level head and remember to STAY ON MESSAGE (there it is again!).
    • Be positive. Negativity kills campaigns as time winds down. If we cannibalize one another, what do we need enemies for? Constructive criticism is a great and useful thing, but outright negativity should be shunned. We must be positive, because we have a lot to be positive about. In line with that...
    • Act like winners. Ron Paul has done this much better this year. He is confident, and we all can see and feel it. He knows that he is in this thing to actually win it, not to just run a quixotic effort to educate. He has the message, he has the team, and he is the candidate. Remember when Ron Paul said at the debate "well, now I'm pretty high in the polls," well we need to carry the same kind of confidence. Don't ever be discouraged by someone saying "we can't win." We know we can, and we have to express that through everything we do. Attitude here is more instructive than words could ever be; you don't have to say "I'm on a winning campaign" to express that by doing a great job and being confident in your work.


    The time of reckoning is approaching and the campaign's early stages are quickly coming to a close.

    It is almost time for us to ensure we finish strong.
    Last edited by 1836; 11-14-2011 at 12:26 PM.



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  3. #2
    1836
    Member

    Too soon? Perhaps we should consider this because time is running out.

  4. #3
    BUMP for awesome thread.

    Perfect crash course in the home stretch before this thing really heats up. We are on the front lines!

  5. #4
    1836
    Member

    I think half the battle to getting people to read these things is naming the thread and obviously I am horrible at that. Maybe there is a better name for this. But I do want to get this in front of as many pairs of eyes as possible.

  6. #5

  7. #6
    Quote Originally Posted by 1836 View Post
    I think half the battle to getting people to read these things is naming the thread and obviously I am horrible at that. Maybe there is a better name for this. But I do want to get this in front of as many pairs of eyes as possible.
    every reply is about 30 views. people need to discuss it more.

  8. #7
    Awesome post indeed, especially the point about staying on message and being positive regardless of what anyone says. +rep for you sir!

  9. #8
    Quote Originally Posted by 1836 View Post
    I think half the battle to getting people to read these things is naming the thread and obviously I am horrible at that. Maybe there is a better name for this. But I do want to get this in front of as many pairs of eyes as possible.
    This is the real conundrum... You are right about education only going so far. In the endgame we must stop being teachers and start being salesmen. Which can often be a tough mindset for a staunch individualist.



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  11. #9
    1836
    Member

    Quote Originally Posted by kuckfeynes View Post
    This is the real conundrum... You are right about education only going so far. In the endgame we must stop being teachers and start being salesmen. Which can often be a tough mindset for a staunch individualist.
    Sure it can, but we have such a great product to sell!

    Liberty is like bleach, it burns on contact if you aren't used to the stuff. Some people are allergic to it even. But most people, if you dilute it, can handle it.

    These things I posted deal in politics, but that's what we are engaged in if we are to get Ron Paul elected president. We cannot simply lecture our way to the White House.

  12. #10
    how many times have you seen Ron Paul supporters miss a golden opportunity to win a vote because of an insistence on talking about the Fed, or the gold standard, or foreign policy, or something to that effect, when the voter only needed to hear Paul's pro-life stance or his strong pro-austerity fiscal policy?
    Too many. I knew I liked you.

    RON PAUL: CUT A TRILLION DOLLARS, BALANCE THE BUDGET, CREATE JOBS.
    No, really. I might be in love. Relax, Im married and its clearly the message.

    Constructive criticism is a great and useful thing, but outright negativity should be shunned.
    Note: Shunned, not attacked. Ignore it and move on.

    This thread is epic. Sleep eat and breathe it.
    That is, when you arent making calls. That being said...

  13. #11
    1836
    Member

    Blimp

  14. #12
    1836
    Member

    For the evening folks. Bump.

  15. #13
    A lot of ideas there, a lot of good ideas.

    I'm not sure I agree with everything you say.

    If people don't make up their mind until the last week, why should we stop IDing voters 2 or more weeks before the caucus?

    This is the one here that I have some quibble with.

    "Phone call efforts are extremely important, and timeliness of the efforts even moreso. Right now, the phone efforts are targeted at Voter ID. The campaign is trying to figure out "who are our supporters?" Those efforts are exceptionally important but really cannot go much beyond the middle of December. At that point, it becomes more worth the campaign's while to maintain contact with already ID'd voters and ensure turnout via the phone effort. You still have many voters deciding at that point, but it is impossible to ID and then reach out to a huge new subset of voters within a few weeks' time."

    I just don't agree with that.

    If every Ron Paul volunteer knows that we are making a huge phone call push on, I dunno, Sunday, January 1, and we've got thousands identifying voters on that night, I don't see how it's too late.

    But I don't know what the campaign's GOTV is for the Iowa caucus.

  16. #14
    This thread right here, combined with this thread:

    http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthr...-Ron-Paul-2012

    needs to be the two biggest things grassrooters take to heart. RIGHT F'N NOW.

  17. #15
    1836
    Member

    Quote Originally Posted by parocks View Post
    A lot of ideas there, a lot of good ideas.

    I'm not sure I agree with everything you say.

    If people don't make up their mind until the last week, why should we stop IDing voters 2 or more weeks before the caucus?

    This is the one here that I have some quibble with.

    "Phone call efforts are extremely important, and timeliness of the efforts even moreso. Right now, the phone efforts are targeted at Voter ID. The campaign is trying to figure out "who are our supporters?" Those efforts are exceptionally important but really cannot go much beyond the middle of December. At that point, it becomes more worth the campaign's while to maintain contact with already ID'd voters and ensure turnout via the phone effort. You still have many voters deciding at that point, but it is impossible to ID and then reach out to a huge new subset of voters within a few weeks' time."

    I just don't agree with that.

    If every Ron Paul volunteer knows that we are making a huge phone call push on, I dunno, Sunday, January 1, and we've got thousands identifying voters on that night, I don't see how it's too late.

    But I don't know what the campaign's GOTV is for the Iowa caucus.
    The reason I say it is too late is because if we are doing ID in the last week and not focusing on GOTV then we are going to be spending time trying to find new supporters (which takes A LOT of time) versus the far more time-efficient and important get out the vote efforts.

    In other words, there is an opportunity cost: you spend time focusing on one, or the other. But unless we have thousands of volunteers all working in concert, there's no way we can pull off both GOTV and ID efforts in the last week. That's when you shift to getting your supporters out.

  18. #16
    Also, much of what you had to say was properly directed to the campaign. And I'd argue that the campaign is on top of it. If they want volunteers to call on a certain day, they should. We shouldn't be 2nd guessing what they want to do.

    You're saying phone calls and canvassing is important. That's right. That's what the campaign has volunteers do. That's what the Phone from Home program is.
    That's what Christmas with Ron Paul, where 500 Ron Paul supporters are going to Iowa for the week before the caucus.

    The campaign will also be training the volunteers. So, listen to your training.

    And, I agree with "we don't need a big blimp, a small blimp or a medium sized blimp" or however you put it.

    Basically, just help the campaign, do what the campaign wants you to do.

    Now I think there will be people who for whatever reason don't fit into the campaigns plans, or the campaigns plans don't appeal to potential volunteers.

    I think there should be at least one grassroots project that does something that the campaign is not doing for whatever reason.

    I think there should be a lot of boots on the ground in Des Moines from New Years Eve, on through the caucus.



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  20. #17
    1836
    Member

    Quote Originally Posted by parocks View Post
    Also, much of what you had to say was properly directed to the campaign. And I'd argue that the campaign is on top of it. If they want volunteers to call on a certain day, they should. We shouldn't be 2nd guessing what they want to do.

    You're saying phone calls and canvassing is important. That's right. That's what the campaign has volunteers do. That's what the Phone from Home program is.
    That's what Christmas with Ron Paul, where 500 Ron Paul supporters are going to Iowa for the week before the caucus.

    The campaign will also be training the volunteers. So, listen to your training.

    And, I agree with "we don't need a big blimp, a small blimp or a medium sized blimp" or however you put it.

    Basically, just help the campaign, do what the campaign wants you to do.

    Now I think there will be people who for whatever reason don't fit into the campaigns plans, or the campaigns plans don't appeal to potential volunteers.

    I think there should be at least one grassroots project that does something that the campaign is not doing for whatever reason.

    I think there should be a lot of boots on the ground in Des Moines from New Years Eve, on through the caucus.
    I trust the campaign to do a fine job of taking care of these things, but I think any grassroots efforts can be in concert with theirs, and to execute properly we must have an understanding of campaign tactics.

    Although you never know; the campaign reads these forums. It doesn't hurt to remind them. Even when they already know.

  21. #18
    Quote Originally Posted by 1836 View Post
    The most important part of the campaign is coming up in just a few weeks. It's the last three to four weeks before the vote is taken. Here is a little secret about campaigning, which isn't really a secret.



    How Can Ron Paul Close the Deal?
    Easy! DELEGATES!! We need an effort on par with the BTO moneybomb. Money is important, but Delegates are, CRITICAL! The campaign is slacking on this, so it's up to the grassroots effort to get it done!

    The only way for Ron Paul to become President is if he gets the GOP nomination; The only way for Ron Paul to get the GOP nomination is if we become delegates. As delegates, we’ll be voting to pick the GOP nominee just like the electors in the electoral college vote to pick the President; Delegates determine and decide who the GOP nominee it’s that critical!

  22. #19
    1836
    Member

    Quote Originally Posted by ninepointfive View Post
    Easy! DELEGATES!! We need an effort on par with the BTO moneybomb. Money is important, but Delegates are, CRITICAL!

    The only way for Ron Paul to become President is if he gets the GOP nomination; The only way for Ron Paul to get the GOP nomination is if we become delegates. As delegates, we’ll be voting to pick the GOP nominee just like the electors in the electoral college vote to pick the President; Delegates determine and decide who the GOP nominee it’s that critical!
    Delegates are exceptionally important, and I will add that to the list. Thank you for the fine point.

  23. #20
    Quote Originally Posted by 1836 View Post
    I trust the campaign to do a fine job of taking care of these things, but I think any grassroots efforts can be in concert with theirs, and to execute properly we must have an understanding of campaign tactics.

    Although you never know; the campaign reads these forums. It doesn't hurt to remind them. Even when they already know.
    I'm not sure about the validity of "be in concert with".

    In 2007-8 there were 2 groups of people canvassing. I'd rather have 1 bigger one than 2 smaller ones. 1 database, one GOTV effort.

    Pretraining volunteers is a good thing, giving them an understanding of campaign tactics.

    I should also add that most of what you said is reasonable. And that can be rare at times. It's always good to read a whole bunch of reasonable stuff.

  24. #21
    1836
    Member

    Quote Originally Posted by parocks View Post
    I'm not sure about the validity of "be in concert with".

    In 2007-8 there were 2 groups of people canvassing. I'd rather have 1 bigger one than 2 smaller ones. 1 database, one GOTV effort.

    Pretraining volunteers is a good thing, giving them an understanding of campaign tactics.

    I should also add that most of what you said is reasonable. And that can be rare at times. It's always good to read a whole bunch of reasonable stuff.
    My own preference would be towards an integrated effort; however, as you and I both know, organizing Ron Paul supporters is like herding cats. People will have their own grassroots efforts, and do their own thing, and while some will get on board with the campaign machine, many will not.

    For those folks, they need to have a broader perspective on what matters as this campaign gets down to brass tacks.

  25. #22
    Quote Originally Posted by parocks View Post
    Also, much of what you had to say was properly directed to the campaign. And I'd argue that the campaign is on top of it. If they want volunteers to call on a certain day, they should. We shouldn't be 2nd guessing what they want to do.

    You're saying phone calls and canvassing is important. That's right. That's what the campaign has volunteers do. That's what the Phone from Home program is.
    That's what Christmas with Ron Paul, where 500 Ron Paul supporters are going to Iowa for the week before the caucus.

    The campaign will also be training the volunteers. So, listen to your training.

    And, I agree with "we don't need a big blimp, a small blimp or a medium sized blimp" or however you put it.

    Basically, just help the campaign, do what the campaign wants you to do.

    Now I think there will be people who for whatever reason don't fit into the campaigns plans, or the campaigns plans don't appeal to potential volunteers.

    I think there should be at least one grassroots project that does something that the campaign is not doing for whatever reason.

    I think there should be a lot of boots on the ground in Des Moines from New Years Eve, on through the caucus.
    That's only like 3 days. Boots on the ground in Iowa need to arrive at bare minimum Dec 26th. Preferably earlier, but canvassing during Christmas season will turn off more voters than it turns on. So the real victory is landing 5,000+ volunteers in Iowa on Dec 26th to get the maximum canvass accomplished before the January 3rd caucus.

    ETA -- 8 days x 5000 volunteers x 50 homes a day is 2 million homes. Assuming a 14% return, that's 280,000 votes. That's victory.
    Last edited by GunnyFreedom; 11-14-2011 at 12:39 PM.

  26. #23
    Quote Originally Posted by 1836 View Post
    My own preference would be towards an integrated effort; however, as you and I both know, organizing Ron Paul supporters is like herding cats. People will have their own grassroots efforts, and do their own thing, and while some will get on board with the campaign machine, many will not.

    For those folks, they need to have a broader perspective on what matters as this campaign gets down to brass tacks.
    A good point.

  27. #24
    Five little words:

    "I will go to Iran"...
    "We have allowed our Nation to be overtaxed, and over-regulated, and overrun by bureaucrats. The Founders would be ashamed of us for what we're putting up with."

    Never try to take the "politics" out of politics.



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  29. #25
    Quote Originally Posted by GunnyFreedom View Post
    That's only like 3 days. Boots on the ground in Iowa need to arrive at bare minimum Dec 26th. Preferably earlier, but canvassing during Christmas season will turn off more voters than it turns on. So the real victory is landing 5,000+ volunteers in Iowa on Dec 26th to get the maximum canvass accomplished before the January 3rd caucus.
    Ok, I'm kinda talking about 2 different things.

    A) The official campaign. The official campaign has a Christmas with Ron Paul program where they're asking for 500 pairs of boots from Youth For Ron Paul. Can they afford to food, clothing, shelter 5,000 pairs of boots? I don't know. I would think that anyone in Iowa should want to work on the campaign's GOTV project, for the most part. The official campaign is the one that is doing the door to door canvassing.

    B) The grassroots. I think there should be a separate, different, project. That's the one I thought might start on NYE. The idea there is just to round up all the 18-29 year old men in Des Moines.

    People can work on A) and/or B).

    We would need to organize B) at some time. The campaign is organizing A).

  30. #26
    Quote Originally Posted by parocks View Post
    Ok, I'm kinda talking about 2 different things.

    A) The official campaign. The official campaign has a Christmas with Ron Paul program where they're asking for 500 pairs of boots from Youth For Ron Paul. Can they afford to food, clothing, shelter 5,000 pairs of boots? I don't know. I would think that anyone in Iowa should want to work on the campaign's GOTV project, for the most part. The official campaign is the one that is doing the door to door canvassing.

    B) The grassroots. I think there should be a separate, different, project. That's the one I thought might start on NYE. The idea there is just to round up all the 18-29 year old men in Des Moines.

    People can work on A) and/or B).

    We would need to organize B) at some time. The campaign is organizing A).
    The campaign can organize A all they want, we need to encourage people to actually GET THERE.

    If grassrooters are doing something that only first shows up Dec 31st, it will need to be BIG.

  31. #27
    I'll look for that study about the 14% return rate. I actually sent this to the Peter Schiff campaign when I noticed his team was making phone calls, rather than putting boots on the ground. The study was even conducted in connecticut.

    Found it. Wow, putlocker is real easy and user friendly!


    I'll start a new thread for the info. Summary:
    Campaign Strategy and Effectiveness by the Numbers:
    Phone calls to voters: 30-second Sun-Tues (0% effect on voter turnout)
    Voter turnout mail: 3 pieces 15, 13, and 8 days before election (+1.6%)
    Voter personal visits: Sat/Sun for four weekends before election (+12.8%)

    Thread here with the full study:
    http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthr...79#post3742579
    Last edited by ninepointfive; 11-14-2011 at 12:51 PM.

  32. #28
    1836
    Member

    More important today than ever... we have to know how to win this thing in the closing stretch.



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