If U.K. Votes Brexit, Frexit and Italexit Could Follow
http://www.thedailybeast.com/article...ld-follow.html
BARBIE LATZA NADEAU06.23.165:00 AM ET
ROME — Most people know what it feels like to stay in a relationship too long. What were once small annoyances become huge fights as patience wears thin. And before you know it promises are being broken and doors (or in this case borders) are slamming shut.
That’s kind of how the European Union is behaving right now, or at least that’s what recent polls suggest when it comes to the question of whether or not British voters should vote to stay in the European Union on Thursday. It’s as if Europe is saying to the U.K., “OK, then, just go… But if you go, don’t come back!”
And if the U.K. does vote to divorce itself from Europe on Thursday, there is no telling just how nasty the final settlement might be, or even how many other countries are going to follow the U.K.’s lead and try to get out, too.
Countries like Sweden are already contemplating a referendum of their own if the U.K. votes to bail. One might envision years of “Swexit,” “Frexit,” and “Italexit” sagas unfolding as countries consider the value of staying in a broken union while popular opinion weighs against it.
What’s more, it sometimes seems that nobody outside the U.K. is really fighting to keep it in the European Union save arrogant Eurocrats and multi-national and British-based pan-European businesses that will be directly affected by the British vote.
A recent survey by the German Bertelsmann Foundation suggests that the majority of Europeans may favor the U.K. remaining in Europe, but they are not exactly pleading with their friends across the English Channel to stay. And some may be inspired to ditch the European project themselves.
Take France, a founding member and architect of the European Union. According to the Bertelsmann poll, only 41 percent of the French think British voters should vote to stay. Next year, Marine Le Pen, a fervent anti-EU campaigner, will almost certainly dominate the first round of France’s presidential elections, even if, like her father when he was a candidate in 2002, she is forced out in the second round.
In the wake of a Brexit vote, it’s certain that Marine Le Pen’s calls for France to hold its own referendum will gain momentum, and it’s no accident that she announced this week she was very much in favor of Britain pulling out.
“I would vote for Brexit, even if I think that France has a thousand more reasons to leave than the U.K.,” she said, since the French have to deal with the euro currency and the open borders of the continent under the Schengen agreement, both of which the British refused to join long ago. “Whatever the result,” said Le Pen, “it shows the EU is decaying, that there are cracks everywhere.”
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