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Thread: Could Trump win New York in general election ?

  1. #31
    Quote Originally Posted by CaptUSA View Post
    It is simply hard to conceive of a state that Romney lost where Trump could win..
    It is hard for you to conceive of Florida- a state that is Trump's second home and couldn't be a better fit for him demographically? Ohio? Pennsylvania? Nevada? Trump wins every state Romney did, will be favored in many swing states, and brings states in to play that haven't been available to Republicans in decades.



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  3. #32





    “I don’t think that there will be any curtailing of Donald Trump as president,” he said. "He controls the media, he controls the sentiment [and] he controls everybody. He’s the one who will resort to executive orders more so than [President] Obama ever used them." - Ron Paul



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  5. #33
    Quote Originally Posted by RonPaulMall View Post
    It is hard for you to conceive of Florida- a state that is Trump's second home and couldn't be a better fit for him demographically? Ohio? Pennsylvania? Nevada? Trump wins every state Romney did, will be favored in many swing states, and brings states in to play that haven't been available to Republicans in decades.
    Clinton got more votes in her FL primary than Trump did in his and her victory wasn't even in question in that state. So she already has a slightly larger base of support. Throw in the paltry numbers for Trump among swing voters, the xenophobic rhetoric, and the fact that he really pissed off much of the GOP base there, and I don't really see it as plausible.
    "And now that the legislators and do-gooders have so futilely inflicted so many systems upon society, may they finally end where they should have begun: May they reject all systems, and try liberty; for liberty is an acknowledgment of faith in God and His works." - Bastiat

    "It is difficult to free fools from the chains they revere." - Voltaire

  6. #34
    Whatever happens...you all are witness to history. There has never been a bigger more entertaining Circus about to unfold in this great nation's history than what is going to be the 2016 Presidential race......After all.... this country is nothing but bread and circuses and this is about as epic as you can get.


    I don't know if I should cry, or enjoy and savor every single bit of it.
    The wisdom of Swordy:

    On bringing the troops home
    Quote Originally Posted by Swordsmyth View Post
    They are coming home, all the naysayers said they would never leave Syria and then they said they were going to stay in Iraq forever.

    It won't take very long to get them home but it won't be overnight either but Iraq says they can't stay and they are coming home just like Trump said.

    On fighting corruption:
    Quote Originally Posted by Swordsmyth View Post
    Trump had to donate the "right way" and hang out with the "right people" in order to do business in NYC and Hollyweird and in order to investigate and expose them.
    Fascism Defined

  7. #35
    Quote Originally Posted by CaptUSA View Post
    Clinton got more votes in her FL primary than Trump did in his and her victory wasn't even in question in that state. So she already has a slightly larger base of support. Throw in the paltry numbers for Trump among swing voters, the xenophobic rhetoric, and the fact that he really pissed off much of the GOP base there, and I don't really see it as plausible.
    Oh, I forgot about Bruiser pissing off the FL GOP, that's not very helpful:

    Lewandowski Under Fire After Attack on Florida GOP


    Donald Trump's campaign manager is reportedly coming under fire from the Florida state GOP — and the front-runner's own team — after a blistering, and inaccurate, attack on the state's delegate selection process.

    After Corey Lewandowski attacked the Sunshine State's GOP Chairman Blaise Ingoglia as overly biased against the front-runner during an interview on Fox News Sunday, Ingoglia put in an angry call to Team Trump, Politico reports.

    "We have no idea what Mr. Lewandowski is talking about," Wadi Gaitan, the state GOP spokesman, tells Politico in a written statement. "The State Party and our Chairman have been consistently clear that we have and will continue to remain neutral during this process. It is unfortunate that Mr. Lewandowski went on national TV and misled viewers with inaccurate statements both on process and substance."

    In the interview, Lewandowski declared the state's party chairman "who is an avid and outward supporter of [Sen.] Marco Rubio, gets to appoint 30" of the state's 99 delegates.

    Politico reports, however, Ingoglia remained neutral before and after the state's March 15 GOP primary, which Trump won — and that the chairman doesn't appoint any delegates, but is in charge of recommending 15 delegates to the state executive committee.

    Special:
    The Florida system allows for 81 delegates to be selected by local parties, and 15 to be selected by the state's Republican executive committee. The remaining three are Ingoglia, and the state's national committeeman and committeewoman, Politico reports.

    "Corey goes on national TV to talk about how he didn't really commit battery on a woman — a terrible topic for the campaign to have out there — and then he makes it even worse by getting his facts wrong and pissing off the chairman in Florida when he didn't need to," one unnamed source in the Trump campaign tells Politico.

    Lewandowski also ruffled feathers by blurting out during the TV interview that "by the end of this month and the next two weeks, Donald Trump will add an additional 200 delegates to his total."

    "That's a number we hope for," the source tells Politico. "We're trying to set expectations at 180, and he just blew through that — a complete amateur."
    Another unnamed source tells Politico that Lewandowski's attack on the Florida GOP official "made no sense."

    "He wasn't asked about Florida at all," the second source tells Politico. "He could have singled out West Virginia, or Colorado or Indiana. All of their rules and processes are terrible. Instead, he went right after Florida and the chairman. And the guy wasn't pleased."
    http://www.newsmax.com/Politics/core.../18/id/724495/
    “I don’t think that there will be any curtailing of Donald Trump as president,” he said. "He controls the media, he controls the sentiment [and] he controls everybody. He’s the one who will resort to executive orders more so than [President] Obama ever used them." - Ron Paul

  8. #36
    Quote Originally Posted by euphemia View Post
    New York has about six months to get their voter rolls straightened out. There were mass deletions of registrations in some districts.

    Same thing happened in Arizona.

    I guess we'll see.
    Oh, I can see it already...

    When Trump goes the way of Alf Landon, the **********s are going to be talking about "vote flipping" and the like.

    ...It just must be FRAUD!!!

    ...Who wouldn't love Dear Leader!?!

    LMAO

  9. #37
    Quote Originally Posted by TheNewYorker View Post
    As someone in NY, no he won't win NY. No support for him at all here. In fact, there was only one person in my entire county that donated to Trump, a guy that owned a used car dealership.
    How appropriate that a used car salesman would like Trump..

  10. #38
    They confronted me in the day of my calamity, but the Lord was my support.

  11. #39
    Quote Originally Posted by CaptUSA View Post
    Wow. You are seriously delusional. This must be a case of "buying into the fantasy" that Trump writes about. I'm in OH now and recently moved from PA. There is simply no way that will ever happen. It's more likely that Trump loses TX than for your scenario to play out.
    Indeed, much more likely.

    There's no Trump v Hillary polling for TX yet, but we can make some inferences:

    We'll use MO and AZ as proxies for Texas, which is kind of southern and kind of south-western demographically.

    Romney won MO by 9 points. According to recent polling, Trump is losing it by 2: an 11 point swing against Trump in MO.

    Romney won AZ by 9 points. According to recent polling, Trump is losing is by 7 points: a 16 point swing against Trump in AZ.

    Now, Romney won TX by 16 points.

    So TX (which, of course, Trump lost in the primary) is definitely in play.

    I'd predict that Trump barely squeaks out a victory in TX, but he could very well lose it.

    ...needless to say, he has no chance in hell of winning the North East.
    Last edited by r3volution 3.0; 05-04-2016 at 01:00 PM.

  12. #40
    Luieburger
    Member

    Quote Originally Posted by CPUd View Post
    Sanders vs Trump:
    Quote Originally Posted by r3volution 3.0 View Post
    Predictions for Trump v. Hillary:
    AZ and UT to Sanders/Hillary over Trump? Seriously?

    Why do I even read these forums anymore...
    Last edited by Luieburger; 05-04-2016 at 02:34 PM.



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  14. #41
    Quote Originally Posted by Luieburger View Post
    AZ to Sanders over Trump? Seriously?

    Why do I even read these forums anymore...


    Yes, your candidate is so bad that he's going to lose a safe GOP state to a geriatric Stalinist.

  15. #42
    Luieburger
    Member

    Quote Originally Posted by r3volution 3.0 View Post
    Yes, your candidate is so bad that he's going to lose a safe GOP state to a geriatric Stalinist.
    First, I'm a Cruz guy so get that straight. I'm no trumpster. Second, polls don't make Hillary likable or trustworthy to the American people. Third, six months ago everybody said Trump was a joke; we have another six months to go until the General Election.

    No Trump likely won't win NY, but I won't be surprised if he does.

  16. #43
    Quote Originally Posted by Luieburger View Post
    First, I'm a Cruz guy so get that straight. I'm no trumpster.
    My mistake...

    Second, polls don't make Hillary likable or trustworthy to the American people. Third, six months ago everybody said Trump was a joke; we have another six months to go until the General Election.
    Trump's favorables are much worse than Hillary's.

    And the polling of Trump vs. Hillary/Bernie has been consistent since last summer.

    He almost always loses, and usually by double digits.

    No Trump likely won't win NY, but I won't be surprised if he does.
    100% guaranteed he loses NY by double digits.

  17. #44
    Luieburger
    Member

    Quote Originally Posted by r3volution 3.0 View Post
    He almost always loses, and usually by double digits.
    I know, right? And yet somehow he keeps winning.

    I won't pretend to understand Trump's movement, but I'm not going to be in denial about it either. We had a nice run with our Liberty movement in 2008 and 2012, but something huge is happening in this country now and we can only ride the waves. Fighting the current only leads to exhaustion and drowning.

  18. #45
    Quote Originally Posted by Luieburger View Post
    I know, right? And yet somehow he keeps winning.
    Huh? The polls he keeps losing are for the general election.

    Winning states in the GOP primary has nothing to do with it.

    I won't pretend to understand Trump's movement, but I'm not going to be in denial about it either. We had a nice run with our Liberty movement in 2008 and 2012, but something huge is happening in this country now and we can only ride the waves. Fighting the current only leads to exhaustion and drowning.
    You're ignoring all the polling that indicates Trump will be crushed in November, yet I'm the one in denial?

    And, btw, you certainly sound like a Trump supporter.

    What Cruz supporter would to go such great lengths to argue (against all facts) that Trump's electable?

  19. #46
    Quote Originally Posted by Luieburger View Post
    First, I'm a Cruz guy so get that straight. I'm no trumpster. Second, polls don't make Hillary likable or trustworthy to the American people. Third, six months ago everybody said Trump was a joke; we have another six months to go until the General Election.

    No Trump likely won't win NY, but I won't be surprised if he does.
    Hillary is definitely an unpopular candidate, but Trump is on a whole different level:



    The only presidential candidate ever in modern history worse than Trump was David Duke.
    “I don’t think that there will be any curtailing of Donald Trump as president,” he said. "He controls the media, he controls the sentiment [and] he controls everybody. He’s the one who will resort to executive orders more so than [President] Obama ever used them." - Ron Paul

  20. #47
    Clinton would beat trump in NY from her prison cell.
    "The rifle itself has no moral stature, since it has no will of its own. Naturally, it may be used by evil men for evil purposes, but there are more good men than evil, and while the latter cannot be persuaded to the path of righteousness by propaganda, they can certainly be corrected by good men with rifles." —Jeff Cooper

    Out of suffering have emerged the strongest souls; the most massive characters are seared with scars.

  21. #48
    Quote Originally Posted by TomtheTinker View Post
    Clinton would beat trump in NY from her prison cell.
    And she just might.



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  23. #49
    Trump will win Michigan and a few other states.

    Florida has a lot more white and black adult legal citizens voters than people realize.

    In a real blowout he'll win Oregon.

    Clinton has lost most of these states across the northern half in primaries helping Trump compete in most of them.

    He'll lose New York and perform well by GOP standards meaning as you go west he starts winning swing states.
    BOWLING GREEN, Kentucky – Washington liberals are trying to push through the so-called DREAM Act, which creates an official path to Democrat voter registration for 2 million college-age illegal immigrants.
    Rand Paul 2010

    Booker T. Washington:
    Cast it down among the eight millions of Negroes whose habits you know, whose
    fidelity and love you have tested in days when to have proved treacherous meant the ruin of your firesides.

  24. #50
    Here's a tool to see demographic effects:


    http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/...-the-election/
    “I don’t think that there will be any curtailing of Donald Trump as president,” he said. "He controls the media, he controls the sentiment [and] he controls everybody. He’s the one who will resort to executive orders more so than [President] Obama ever used them." - Ron Paul

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