November Bi-Election --- How many HOUSE seats do the Democrats gain?

[Aratus]

We had a poll on this topic that is closed.
I'm reframing it. October has its surprises.

[specsaregood]

We had a poll on this topic that is closed.
I'm reframing it. October has its surprises.

Americans are bandwagon fans and the GOP team is currently winning... I'm getting the impression that voters will show up to enable the GOP to do a dance in the endzone.

[timosman]

@devil21 claims to know how this will unfold. Hope to learn more.

[RonZeplin]

President Pelosi will nominate Hillary Rodham Clinton to the SCOTUS.

[spudea]

poll is too complicated.

[timosman]

poll is too complicated.

This is what happens when you suffer from TDS.

[Aratus]

This is what happens when you suffer from TDS.

You create scenario contingent polls.
I didn't carbon copy the previous one
that was quite good, that showed this
site split between folks who see no gain
or a big (D) gain. A Blue Wave has alot
of ways it could impact. No change, then
it's status quo. Mitch McConnell rules all.

[Anti Globalist]

The Dems will only gain a couple seats.

[UWDude]

Where is the bloodbath option?
Democrats are going to get slaughtered, like they never have before.
Trump broke up the demographic viewerships, to blind the Democrats.
The Democrats have no idea the size of Trump's cult like shadow armies everywhere, and they grow by the day.

Yet, to the lazy analytics, who never knew struggle, or understood war, everything looks peachy fine hunky dory dandy.
They are way too busy showing off their life on social media, than doing any actual research.
Against them, is a shadow army of volunteers, like never seen before, from all over the world, using the vernacular.

It doesn't really matter what tricks the Democrats pull next, indeed, every stunt from here on out just adds powder to the keg.
What that means is, the Trump train is gaining momentum, and nothing is going to stop it.
I won't even say "barring some catastrophe".
Meuller can come out with his report a week before the election, it will just make Trump stronger.

Now Trump grabbed Feinstein by the pussy. He has the goods on her, and 100 senators and their staff know it.
She is compromised now. All Trump has to do is wave his hand, and she goes to prison for life.
But, Trump, genius that he is, has decided to just "publicly" humiliate her in front of her colleagues.
They all know she is weak now, and Trump can call in the favor he wants to, at any moment.

She got a spanking. Old Chuck Shumer granpa'd her, and told her it is alright. But the democrats are more furious with her than the Republicans. That is why Graham is peacocking. The whole senate knows the horrible truth now. Feinstein is compromised by Trump.
What does Diane have on Lisa? How much money would it take to fix an election in Alaska?
Feinstein still gave the order for Murkowski to vote no, in a symbolic scream for the history books nobody will read.
How pathetic.

It's that Masonic magic, again.
Trump, fitting name, no?

Plus, their managers want them to be optimistic, because that counts, and spirit is part of politics.

Democrats lose 5 senate seats and 10 house seats, at least. At least one senate loss will be in a so-called "safe" state, I would bet 2, though.

[ILUVRP]

dems gain over 30 house seats

[specsaregood]

What does Diane have on Lisa? How much money would it take to fix an election in Alaska?
Feinstein still gave the order for Murkowski to vote no, in a symbolic scream for the history books nobody will read.

FWIW, Murkowski voted "present" on the actual confirmation vote.

[timosman]

FWIW, Murkowski voted "present" on the actual confirmation vote.

Well, this was a result of an agreement with Daines. He was at his daughter's wedding, Murkowski voted no, he would vote yes. She withdrew her vote to allow his vote to be counted and partially to save her face.

[Aratus]

The 50 to 48 vote, indeed.

[eleganz]

@devil21 claims to know how this will unfold. Hope to learn more.

If only they would post this secret script of knowledge so we can all be illuminated and predict the future.

[devil21]

If only they would post this secret script of knowledge so we can all be illuminated and predict the future.

Here's a clue. There's at least 45 intel officers running almost exclusively as Democrats in various House races for a reason.

"Predicting" the future is a combination of knowledge of the agenda and methods used and paying attention to the information that the media mostly ignores. Think like a military strategist, not a voter. Stop being so emotionally invested in the outcome. It's that emotional investment that turns off your critical, analytical thinking ability.

[CaptUSA]

President Pelosi will nominate Hillary Rodham Clinton to the SCOTUS.

[thoughtomator]

GOP gains in the Senate are all but certain now. Only question is how many.

GOP has an amazing 42 of 51 seats that are not up for re-election this year. Of the remaining ones, four are safe, two lean GOP and three are considered tossups.

Looking at the terrain, the leaners (MS, ND, TX) and the seats in TN and MO are looking like GOP locks. That's 51 seats - equal to the current.

To stop GOP gains, Democrats have to sweep all of the other Senate races. This would involve holding onto MT, IN, and capturing the seat in AZ, all unfavorable terrain.

Serious D-downside possibilities are open now thanks to the Kavanaugh affair. They could potentially lose ALL the toss-ups plus NJ, WV, and perhaps even RI - word has it that Whitehouse's challenger is within 10 points in internal polling and has momentum. That would be +8 seats, giving the GOP a filibuster-proof 60 vote supermajority.

[thoughtomator]

Where is the bloodbath option?

It's not there because they already had a bloodbath in 2014 that held intact through 2016. Current numbers are post-bloodbath levels.

[shakey1]

[nobody's_hero]

This is almost good enough to be a CNN poll.

Your options are essentially, "democrats don't lose" or "democrats win."

Would you like to turn 90 degrees left? Or 270 degrees to the right?

[Cleaner44]

There will be no Blue Wave™. Fraudulent propaganda is fraudulent.

[Aratus]

So far, at least 8 of us do think the House will not Flip.
I am sore torn. I hedged things. If I now remove my own
votes, this poll is sorta doing what the other one did, going
by the tally I just looked at. The other poll here expected
a loss of GOP seats, but a clear split over the impact

[r3volution 3.0]

The Dems were already going to take 15-30 seats.

With Kavanaugh being confirmed, GOP excitement will wane, while the Dems will be going berserk.

[Aratus]

It's not there because they already had a bloodbath in 2014 that held intact through 2016. Current numbers are post-bloodbath levels.

Agreed.

[Aratus]

If things are schizoid as the GOP wins 10 seats as it
secures roughly 60 Senate seats, but the House sees
the GOP loose 20 to 25 or even 30 seats, given that
modern voters split tickets, you'd have a flipped House
impeaching people when in a foul mood, only to see a
SENATE having to try them one by one, as a slap on
the wrist is the worst thing the impeached people face.
The system could end up highly partisan and screwy as
this is hashed out for different pools of voters nationwide.
As I said, the "zoo" potential in 2019 exists. Expect chaos.

[Aratus]

This is almost good enough to be a CNN poll.

Your options are essentially, "democrats don't lose" or "democrats win."

Would you like to turn 90 degrees left? Or 270 degrees to the right?

I have overlapping multiple options, each combo creates an alternative reality
for a universe that is very much like this one, inside the multiverse our own lil
universe is part of. What is alarming, the ones where Tim Kaine or Mike Pence
are already sworn in as the president of the USA are so damn close to this one!

[timosman]

I have overlapping multiple options, each combo creates an alternative reality
for a universe that is very much like this one, inside the multiverse our own lil
universe is part of. What is alarming, the ones where Tim Kaine or Mike Pence
are already sworn in as the president of the USA are so damn close to this one!

and yet, the energy required to transition to either one is ...... huge

[oyarde]

I voted . I guess less than double digits in the house and nothing in the senate for Dem gains

[aGameOfThrones]

GOP gains in the Senate are all but certain now. Only question is how many.

GOP has an amazing 42 of 51 seats that are not up for re-election this year. Of the remaining ones, four are safe, two lean GOP and three are considered tossups.

Looking at the terrain, the leaners (MS, ND, TX) and the seats in TN and MO are looking like GOP locks. That's 51 seats - equal to the current.

To stop GOP gains, Democrats have to sweep all of the other Senate races. This would involve holding onto MT, IN, and capturing the seat in AZ, all unfavorable terrain.

Serious D-downside possibilities are open now thanks to the Kavanaugh affair. They could potentially lose ALL the toss-ups plus NJ, WV, and perhaps even RI - word has it that Whitehouse's challenger is within 10 points in internal polling and has momentum. That would be +8 seats, giving the GOP a filibuster-proof 60 vote supermajority.

FL? Rick Scott might take it.

[Schifference]

I have overlapping multiple options, each combo creates an alternative reality
for a universe that is very much like this one, inside the multiverse our own lil
universe is part of. What is alarming, the ones where Tim Kaine or Mike Pence
are already sworn in as the president of the USA are so damn close to this one!

You have covered almost all options.