NBC News/WSJ Poll: Clinton's Lead Over Trump Shrinks to 3 Points

[Cleaner44]

It will just get worse and worse for her as we get closer to the general election. It is tough to win an election when nobody likes you and even Democrat voters only back the candidate reluctantly.

Clinton's Lead Over Trump Shrinks to 3 Points: New NBC News/WSJ Poll
http://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-pres...ew-nbc-n577726

[randomname]

Trump now ahead of Clinton in RCP average for the first time ever

[Mordan]

on the other hand, Trump has passionate ex Ron Paul supporters to show passion and commitment.

Trump is flawed but he is teaching us a lesson. I like that. I like that very much.

[Peace&Freedom]

This is the third or fourth poll now showing the Trump-Clinton race has now become statistically a dead heat. So much for the unfavorables for Trump being "unfixable." The supremacy of real voter data (the 60% increased turnout in the GOP primaries, versus the 20% decreased turnout for the Democratic race) over the past year's polling data is beginning to show as we get closer to the election.

Polls are projections of voter behavior, based on samples of a few hundred people at a time, whereas voting results represent the actual behavior of voters, based on tens or hundreds of thousands of people per contest. The latter is the more accurate sample and indicator of current voting trends, and it points to a Trump popular vote victory over Hillary, by about 3 to 7 million votes come November.

[CPUd]

This is the third or fourth poll now showing the Trump-Clinton race has now become statistically a dead heat. So much for the unfavorables for Trump being "unfixable." The supremacy of real voter data (the 60% increased turnout in the GOP primaries, versus the 20% decreased turnout for the Democratic race) over the past year's polling data is beginning to show as we get closer to the election.

Polls are projections of voter behavior, based on samples of a few hundred people at a time, whereas voting results represent the actual behavior of voters, based on tens or hundreds of thousands of people per contest. The latter is the more accurate sample and indicator of current voting trends, and it points to a Trump popular vote victory over Hillary, by about 3 to 7 million votes come November.

Unfavorables are still as high as ever. Trump polls well with older white people, Clinton is still getting 70-90% of minority voters; that will not change. A lot of these people are leaners as well:

Asked if they would consider a third-party candidate if Clinton and Trump were the major party nominees, 47 percent of registered voters say yes -- a higher percentage than those who said yes on a similar question in 2008 and 2012.

Give them the right candidate and they will jump on board with the other 10% who will never vote for either.

[RonPaulMall]

This is why Trump should probably back off from Hillary until the convention. If he keeps attacking her she's going to drop so low that the Democrats will pull a Torricelli and give the nomination to somebody else, voters and rules be damned.

[randomname]

About the predictive value of polls:



(now 169 days until election day)

http://themonkeycage.org/2011/05/do-...dict-anything/

[randomname]

Nate Silver chimes in on Trump leading in polls:

[Voluntarist]

xxxxx

[robert68]

The proportional allotment of delegates in the Democratic primaries is allowing Sanders to stay in the race, while Trump has the Republican nomination essentially locked up and can fully target Hillary.

[Cleaner44]

This election will be like others before it, a run to determine who the voters see as the lesser of two evils. Hilary will be seen as the greater evil.

[Peace&Freedom]

Unfavorables are still as high as ever. Trump polls well with older white people, Clinton is still getting 70-90% of minority voters; that will not change. A lot of these people are leaners as well:

My point was, his unfavorables won't drive the election, turnout will. The latter factor points favorably towards Trump. So the "unfavorables" factor is fixable, in terms of Trump energizing his vote overcoming the much more apathetic Hillary supporters.

[misterx]

Every time Trump cracks 44 percent he gets beaten back down. When the chips are on the table it's going to come down to pretty much a 50/50 split. It's just a matter of who has the best October surprise, and what the turnout is like.

[FindLiberty]

I see a lot of "Wizard of Oz" material (hidden meaning, story-line clues) in this colorful election cycle.

[Cleaner44]

My point was, his unfavorables won't drive the election, turnout will. The latter factor points favorably towards Trump. So the "unfavorables" factor is fixable, in terms of Trump energizing his vote overcoming the much more apathetic Hillary supporters.

I find the "unfavorable" angle to be complete nonsense. Of course the most successful candidates have high unfavorables and they always will. People that run for president are going to be despised and politicians are rarely loved. It doesn't matter if Clinton and Trump both have unfavorable numbers in the 90s because one of them will still be elected.

[acptulsa]

I find the "unfavorable" angle to be complete nonsense. Of course the most successful candidates have high unfavorables and they always will. People that run for president are going to be despised and politicians are rarely loved. It doesn't matter if Clinton and Trump both have unfavorable numbers in the 90s because one of them will still be elected.

It doesn't matter if The Chosen One--Clinton--can't get rid of her massive unfavorables because no matter how unfavorable she is, Trump will find a way to piss off some more people and become more unfavorable.

[Antischism]

It'll shift back again once the Democratic primaries are over.

[libertythor]

Hillary could sink even more if the Democratic National Convention turns into a 1968-style melee.

[euphemia]

Clinton believes her hype. She thinks she's flawless, and her people are scrambling to try to convince voters. The fact is, she has no ethics or character, and neither does her husband.

[Mordan]

I kinda hope Trump drives Clinton into the ground before the convention. They will nominate Sanders or even better someone else in which case the mental break down of Bernie supporters will be a treat to watch. This will expose the shill nature of this 2 party system.

[dude58677]

Hillary could sink even more if the Democratic National Convention turns into a 1968-style melee.

No, Hillary is becoming less and less popular while Donald Trump has gotten more popular. Donald Trump also leads with independents.

[Cleaner44]

It doesn't matter if The Chosen One--Clinton--can't get rid of her massive unfavorables because no matter how unfavorable she is, Trump will find a way to piss off some more people and become more unfavorable.

I have no doubt that both candidates will piss off millions of people. Yet Clinton will lose this election.

[CPUd]

I have no doubt that both candidates will piss off millions of people. Yet Clinton will lose this election.

It' s really just a show right now. To lose, she would have to lose all the 2012 Mitt states, plus PA, FL, OH, VA. Trump is barely polling ahead in GA.