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Thread: Tariff Wars- Round Three: Now Trump wants another $100 billion

  1. #1

    Tariff Wars- Round Three: Now Trump wants another $100 billion

    Retaliating to their retaliation. It is going to be ugly folks. There are no winners in trade wars. Trump thinks he can win. “Trade wars are good and easy to win,”

    Round One was $3 billion in aluminum and steel tariffs. Round two it was expanded to cover $50 billion more. Now he wants twice that again.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2018/04/05/trum...-products.html

    Trump proposes $100 billion in additional tariffs on Chinese products

    President Donald Trump on Thursday said he has instructed the United States Trade Representative to consider $100 billion in additional tariffs against China.

    "In light of China's unfair retaliation, I have instructed the USTR to consider whether $100 billion of additional tariffs would be appropriate under section 301 and, if so, to identify the products upon which to impose such tariffs," Trump said in a statement.

    As of 8:25 p.m. ET, the implied open for the Dow Jones industrial average was more than 350 points lower, after earlier tanking more than 400 points.

    "POTUS is sending a message to China about consequences," a White House official told CNBC.

    China on Wednesday announced it would introduce tariffs on 106 U.S. products, including soybeans, cars and whiskey.

    The tariffs were introduced as a retaliatory measure against President Trump, who, just 24 hours prior, had unveiled a list of Chinese imports he planned to target with tariffs.

    Trump's proposed tariffs include products used for robotics, information technology, communication technology and aerospace, areas in which Trump feels China could unfairly advance with the help of U.S. intellectual property.

    Despite the severity of Trump's threats on Thursday, he emphasized that the U.S. is still open to negotiation concerning China's trade practices.

    "The United States is still prepared to have discussions in further support of our commitment to achieving free, fair, and reciprocal trade and to protect the technology and intellectual property of American companies and American people," Trump said in a statement.

    Shortly after Trump's announcement, U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer expressed support for the move, calling Trump's response "appropriate."

    "President Trump is proposing an appropriate response to China's recent threat of new tariffs. After a detailed investigation, USTR found overwhelming evidence that China's unreasonable actions are harming the U.S. economy," Lighthizer said in a statement.

    He also condemned China's retaliation and the harm it could cause American workers, farmers and businesses.

    "The appropriate response from China should be to change its behavior, as China's government has pledged to do many times," he said in a statement.
    Last edited by Zippyjuan; 04-05-2018 at 07:35 PM.



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  3. #2
    In a trade war whatever doesn't kill you makes you stronger, China will die, we will win.
    Last edited by Swordsmyth; 04-05-2018 at 07:24 PM.
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankind…it’s people I can’t stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment

  4. #3
    Quote Originally Posted by Swordsmyth View Post
    In a trade war whatever doesn't kill you makes you stronger, China will die we will win.
    Committing suicide to try to kill an enemy isn't "winning". Trump tends to see things as "zero sum games"- if my opponent is hurt, I am helped. If it cost them $100 billion, I gained $100 billion. That is not the case in trade wars. We get higher prices and fewer jobs. The following was written before this latest threat from Trump:

    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/tr...ina-2018-04-03

    Trump’s unwinnable trade war with China

    A tit-for-tat escalation in tariffs would leave everybody worse off

    China’s imposition this week of tariffs on 128 U.S. export products could be just the beginning of a prolonged and destructive trade war between the world’s two largest economies.

    Despite President Donald Trump’s boast that “trade wars are good and easy to win,” this one could impose heavy casualties on both nations and the global economy.

    A trade war is a tit-for-tat escalation of tariffs, aimed more at punishing the other country than protecting domestic producers. The Chinese tariffs announced so far are a direct retaliation for tariffs on imported steel that the Trump administration imposed last month on dubious “national security” grounds. If the Trump administration follows through on a threat to impose tariffs on $50 billion in Chinese imports based on a dispute over intellectual property, the Chinese retaliation could be exponentially greater.

    Nobody wins from a trade war. When a nation seeks to punish another country with tariffs on its goods, exporters in the target country suffer, but so do consumers and import-consuming industries in the country imposing the tariffs. In fact, they may suffer more economic damage than the targeted country. If the targeted country retaliates, the damage is compounded further in both countries.

    This is exactly what is unfolding with the Trump administration’s aggressive trade actions against China, and the stakes are high. China is America’s third largest export market for goods. The Chinese tariffs announced this week hit $3 billion worth of U.S. exports, from nuts, fruits, and wine, to steel pipe. The next round could take aim at the $12 billion in soybeans, $16 billion in civilian aircraft, and $30 billion in industrial supplies that U.S. producers exported to China in 2017.

    U.S. tariffs aimed at punishing China for its IP policies will cause collateral damage across the US economic landscape. Almost half of the $505 billion Americans imported from China last year were household goods that are staples of a working family’s budget, such as cell phones, toys, furniture, apparel and footwear. Tariffs on those items will hit tens of millions of Americans right in their pocketbooks.

    Tariffs on other major categories of imports from China, such as computers, machinery, and industrial supplies, will hit the bottom line of American companies, raising their costs and reducing their competitiveness in the global marketplace. Hundreds of thousands of American workers could be displaced from their jobs.

    U.S. tariffs will do nothing to reduce the U.S. bilateral trade deficit with China. If those tariffs succeed in reducing imports from China, the Chinese will have fewer dollars to buy U.S. exports or to invest in U.S. Treasury bills or U.S. affiliate companies. Both imports from China and exports to China will decline, leaving the trade balance unaffected but reducing overall trade flows and the lower prices and gains from specialization that trade delivers.

    The bilateral deficit with China has always been a misleading measure of the trade relationship. The deficit is not driven by differing trade policies, but by such underlying factors as national rates of saving and investment, and the normal demand of consumers.

    In China, national savings exceed total investment, so its surplus savings flow across the Pacific to invest in the United States. When the Chinese purchase U.S. Treasury bonds TMUBMUSD10Y, -0.71% , it helps our federal government fund its military and other operations with lower borrowing costs. It also prevents the federal government’s insatiable appetite for debt from crowding out private domestic investment.

    The bilateral deficit is also misleading because a large share of the value of goods we import from China actually originate in places other than China.

    High-tech items such as the iPhone are assembled in China, but much of its total value is represented by components made in Japan, South Korea, and the United States. Yet under the U.S. government’s trade accounting system, the full value of the iPhone is classified as an “import” from China. When the components of imports from China are assigned to the country where the value was actually added, the bilateral trade deficit drops by an estimated 40%.

    One other way the goods deficit is misleading is that it ignores trade in services.

    In 2016, the United States ran a bilateral surplus with China in services trade of almost $40 billion. U.S. companies also sell their branded goods and services in China through their affiliate companies. According to the most recent figures from the U.S. Commerce Department, U.S.-owned affiliates in China sold $294 billion in goods and $59 billion in services in 2015. When combined with the lower goods deficit in value-added, the total bilateral deficit with China shrinks considerably.

    The right way to approach trade with China is not to provoke an unwinnable trade war, but to seek international cooperation to address issues of mutual interest. In cooperation with other advanced economies, the United States should seek to encourage reform in China to address issues of intellectual property and steel overcapacity.

    Such cooperation can yield beneficial results without the mutually destructive effects of a trade war.
    Last edited by Zippyjuan; 04-05-2018 at 07:03 PM.

  5. #4
    Quote Originally Posted by Swordsmyth View Post
    In a trade war whatever doesn't kill you makes you stronger, China will die we will win.
    So it will make the US stronger but China weaker? Right

  6. #5
    Quote Originally Posted by juleswin View Post
    So it will make the US stronger but China weaker? Right
    China has more to lose and less room to maneuver, they are also weaker and more corrupt, it will kill them so it won't make them stronger.
    We will live and be stronger.
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankind…it’s people I can’t stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment

  7. #6
    Quote Originally Posted by Zippyjuan View Post
    Committing suicide to try to kill an enemy isn't "winning". Trump tends to see things as "zero sum games"- if my opponent is hurt, I am helped. If it cost them $100 billion, I gained $100 billion. That is not the case in trade wars. We get higher prices and fewer jobs. The following was written before this latest threat from Trump:

    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/tr...ina-2018-04-03
    Fake news.
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankind…it’s people I can’t stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment

  8. #7
    Quote Originally Posted by Swordsmyth View Post
    China has more to lose and less room to maneuver, they are also weaker and more corrupt, it will kill them so it won't make them stronger.
    We will live and be stronger.
    How do you figure?

  9. #8
    Quote Originally Posted by Zippyjuan View Post
    How do you figure?
    They had higher trade barriers to start and they are the ones profiting off the status quo, they are a communist country with extreme government intervention in the market and rampant corruption, they are a house of cards and they are trying to bluff us into backing down before they collapse.
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankind…it’s people I can’t stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment



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  11. #9
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    Chinese can't win, unless they follow through with the petroyuan full court press. Trump can shut down entire regions in China if he wants to take this to the limit.

  12. #10
    Quote Originally Posted by Zippyjuan View Post
    How do you figure?
    from your link:
    In cooperation with other advanced economies, the United States should seek to encourage reform in China to address issues of intellectual property and steel overcapacity.
    China ignores the WTO. Prior administrations have tried asking nicely, Pretty please Mr. China won't you please reform your economy and open your markets like we have done for you?

    I just want objectivity on this forum and will point out flawed sources or points of view at my leisure.

    Quote Originally Posted by spudea on 01/15/24
    Trump will win every single state primary by double digits.
    Quote Originally Posted by spudea on 04/20/16
    There won't be a contested convention
    Quote Originally Posted by spudea on 05/30/17
    The shooting of Gabrielle Gifford was blamed on putting a crosshair on a political map. I wonder what event we'll see justified with pictures like this.

  13. #11
    Quote Originally Posted by AuH20 View Post
    Chinese can't win, unless they follow through with the petroyuan full court press. Trump can shut down entire regions in China if he wants to take this to the limit.
    How so? Military invasion?

  14. #12
    Eat your heart out, Mt Rushmore



    Gulag Chief:
    "Article 58-1a, twenty five years... What did you get it for?"
    Gulag Prisoner: "For nothing at all."
    Gulag Chief: "You're lying... The sentence for nothing at all is 10 years"



  15. #13
    Quote Originally Posted by Zippyjuan View Post
    How so? Military invasion?
    China's centrally planned economy has resulted in entire region being excessively dependent on certain industries, If those industries are tariffed they will collapse.
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankind…it’s people I can’t stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment

  16. #14
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    Quote Originally Posted by Zippyjuan View Post
    How so? Military invasion?
    Trade embargo or more expansive tariffs. There are regional industries that can be targeted and decimated by lack of market access.

  17. #15
    Quote Originally Posted by AuH20 View Post
    Chinese can't win, unless they follow through with the petroyuan full court press. Trump can shut down entire regions in China if he wants to take this to the limit.
    They don't have what it takes for a full court press on the petroyuan.
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankind…it’s people I can’t stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment

  18. #16
    Quote Originally Posted by AuH20 View Post
    Trade embargo or more expansive tariffs. There are regional industries that can be targeted and decimated by lack of market access.
    US is 18% of China's exports. Not enough to shut down entire regions (which are more economically diverse than some seem to realize). Then US producers (and consumers) face massive shortages of goods and parts to make goods and hundreds of thousands are laid off. Prices soar. Yeah- winning!



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  20. #17
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    World War is coming. Why else would the US want their manufacturing back? It's certainly not about bringing back jobs. It makes absolute sense from a military perspective.

  21. #18
    Damned history repeating its damned self... What's trump trying to do anyway? Trigger a hostile sell off of T-bills?


    Gulag Chief:
    "Article 58-1a, twenty five years... What did you get it for?"
    Gulag Prisoner: "For nothing at all."
    Gulag Chief: "You're lying... The sentence for nothing at all is 10 years"



  22. #19
    Quote Originally Posted by AuH20 View Post
    World War is coming. Why else would the US want their manufacturing back? It's certainly not about bringing back jobs. It makes absolute sense from a military perspective.
    This time we need to stay out of it.
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankind…it’s people I can’t stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment

  23. #20
    Quote Originally Posted by brushfire View Post
    Damned history repeating its damned self... What's trump trying to do anyway? Trigger a hostile sell off of T-bills?
    China can't afford that.
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankind…it’s people I can’t stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment

  24. #21
    Quote Originally Posted by Swordsmyth View Post
    China can't afford that.
    Maybe not... Why cant they though? Might that be because China cares about its people, and wants them to prosper? If that is the case now, it certainly hasn't always been the case in the past.

    What if they would be willing to sacrifice the comfort and well being of several hundred million of their citizens, for the upper hand in the future?

    The people of China dont impress me as being in any position to successfully rise up against their government. Seems to me that the reds are in a much better position to survive some civil unrest that the US government is.

    Hey, I could be talking out of my a$$ though...

    Gulag Chief:
    "Article 58-1a, twenty five years... What did you get it for?"
    Gulag Prisoner: "For nothing at all."
    Gulag Chief: "You're lying... The sentence for nothing at all is 10 years"



  25. #22
    Quote Originally Posted by brushfire View Post
    Damned history repeating its damned self... What's trump trying to do anyway? Trigger a hostile sell off of T-bills?
    China should follow Friedman's advice. Currently they produce more than they consume. They keep their currency low. If they allowed their currency to rise the chinese could consume more. And surely Friedman isn't advocating consuming using unlimited DEBT. People should only consume more than they produce when they have SAVINGS!

    This isn't Milton's 1970's. The USA needs to save and produce more, not consume and be debt slaves. "the Asian economies are going to figure out that undervaluing their currencies to prop up the dollar, to continue exporting to a customer that can't pay is a losing economic strategy"

    Peter Schiff 2012 - Stop spending and consuming, start saving and producing!
    I just want objectivity on this forum and will point out flawed sources or points of view at my leisure.

    Quote Originally Posted by spudea on 01/15/24
    Trump will win every single state primary by double digits.
    Quote Originally Posted by spudea on 04/20/16
    There won't be a contested convention
    Quote Originally Posted by spudea on 05/30/17
    The shooting of Gabrielle Gifford was blamed on putting a crosshair on a political map. I wonder what event we'll see justified with pictures like this.

  26. #23
    Quote Originally Posted by brushfire View Post
    Maybe not... Why cant they though? Might that be because China cares about its people, and wants them to prosper? If that is the case now, it certainly hasn't always been the case in the past.

    What if they would be willing to sacrifice the comfort and well being of several hundred million of their citizens, for the upper hand in the future?

    The people of China dont impress me as being in any position to successfully rise up against their government. Seems to me that the reds are in a much better position to survive some civil unrest that the US government is.

    Hey, I could be talking out of my a$$ though...
    It wouldn't be a popular uprising, it would be a factional/regional revolt with a popular revolt element, China's history is full of them.
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankind…it’s people I can’t stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment

  27. #24
    Quote Originally Posted by spudea View Post
    China should follow Friedman's advice. Currently they produce more than they consume. They keep their currency low. If they allowed their currency to rise the chinese could consume more. And surely Friedman isn't advocating consuming using unlimited DEBT. People should only consume more than they produce when they have SAVINGS!

    This isn't Milton's 1970's. The USA needs to save and produce more, not consume and be debt slaves. "the Asian economies are going to figure out that undervaluing their currencies to prop up the dollar, to continue exporting to a customer that can't pay is a losing economic strategy"

    Peter Schiff 2012 - Stop spending and consuming, start saving and producing!
    If you owe a bank $10,000 you have a problem, if you owe a bank $10,000,000 the bank has a problem.
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankind…it’s people I can’t stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment



  28. Remove this section of ads by registering.
  29. #25
    Quote Originally Posted by brushfire View Post
    Damned history repeating its damned self... What's trump trying to do anyway? Trigger a hostile sell off of T-bills?

    One article I read talked about the Tariffs decimating family farms forcing em out of the business and making it easier for big ag to buy up the lands at a cheaper rate. After that happens, then Trump or whatever admin is in govt will rescind the tariffs. Dunno know what to make of that theory but I have been surprised so many times that its not too outlandish to believe.

  30. #26
    Quote Originally Posted by Swordsmyth View Post
    It wouldn't be a popular uprising, it would be a factional/regional revolt with a popular revolt element, China's history is full of them.
    No dispute there, but I was thinking about more recent times - Maoist China - seems that their government endured despite tremendous suffering by its people.

    Gulag Chief:
    "Article 58-1a, twenty five years... What did you get it for?"
    Gulag Prisoner: "For nothing at all."
    Gulag Chief: "You're lying... The sentence for nothing at all is 10 years"



  31. #27
    Quote Originally Posted by spudea View Post
    China should follow Friedman's advice. Currently they produce more than they consume. They keep their currency low. If they allowed their currency to rise the chinese could consume more. And surely Friedman isn't advocating consuming using unlimited DEBT. People should only consume more than they produce when they have SAVINGS!

    This isn't Milton's 1970's. The USA needs to save and produce more, not consume and be debt slaves. "the Asian economies are going to figure out that undervaluing their currencies to prop up the dollar, to continue exporting to a customer that can't pay is a losing economic strategy"
    If you are saving more, you are buying less. If you are buying less, you will need to produce less, not more. That means fewer workers (jobs) needed.

  32. #28
    Quote Originally Posted by brushfire View Post
    No dispute there, but I was thinking about more recent times - Maoist China - seems that their government endured despite tremendous suffering by its people.
    Nothing is certain, but that was also true for stretches of time in China's past between collapses, what would be different now compared to Maoist China is that the elite and the people have tasted the potential for a massive increase in their standard of living which is about to be rudely dashed from their lips and the suffering will be uneven.
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankind…it’s people I can’t stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment

  33. #29
    Quote Originally Posted by Zippyjuan View Post
    If you are saving more, you are buying less. If you are buying less, you will need to produce less, not more. That means fewer workers (jobs) needed.
    Not if the reduction of your imports is greater than the reduction of your consumption.
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankind…it’s people I can’t stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment

  34. #30
    Quote Originally Posted by Zippyjuan View Post
    If you are saving more, you are buying less. If you are buying less, you will need to produce less, not more. That means fewer workers (jobs) needed.
    Theres is a sense of stability with that though. More savings/reserves would mean naturally lower interest rates too. Its not a perfect system, but one that naturally seeks equilibrium. The one we have now is completely subject to the whims of government, and its special interests.

    The key is to have steady and sustainable growth - not this bubble madness every 10 years that we're seeing today. ...and when sh!t goes down, people have to rely on the government because there's no savings. Kinda like Fannie and Freddie - at least the government is consistent.

    Gulag Chief:
    "Article 58-1a, twenty five years... What did you get it for?"
    Gulag Prisoner: "For nothing at all."
    Gulag Chief: "You're lying... The sentence for nothing at all is 10 years"



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