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Thread: AP: Ted Cruz now mathematically eliminated from clinching GOP nomination

  1. #1

    AP: Ted Cruz now mathematically eliminated from clinching GOP nomination

    http://q13fox.com/2016/04/19/ap-ted-...re-convention/

    NEW YORK (AP) — Donald Trump is now the only Republican candidate with any chance of clinching the nomination before the convention.

    Ted Cruz was mathematically eliminated Tuesday after Trump’s big win in the New York primary.

    Trump won at least 89 of the 95 delegates at stake. John Kasich won at least three and Cruz was in danger of being shut out.

    There aren’t enough delegates left in future contests for either Cruz or Kasich to reach the 1,237 delegates needed to win the GOP nomination. Their only hope is to block Trump and force a contested convention.

    The AP delegate count:

    Trump: 845.

    Cruz: 559.

    Kasich: 147.
    As I predicted a while ago - but the 26th was the conservative number.

    This should make the 26th even better for Trump.



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  3. #2
    Doesn't matter. If Trump can't clinch it before the convention, Cruz will be the frontrunner. He may win it on the 2nd ballot.

  4. #3
    Trump might not even be on the first ballot if he can't get 8 state delegations to put his name up.
    “I don’t think that there will be any curtailing of Donald Trump as president,” he said. "He controls the media, he controls the sentiment [and] he controls everybody. He’s the one who will resort to executive orders more so than [President] Obama ever used them." - Ron Paul

  5. #4
    Quote Originally Posted by SilentBull View Post
    Doesn't matter. If Trump can't clinch it before the convention, Cruz will be the frontrunner. He may win it on the 2nd ballot.
    If Trump doesn't clinch it - Cruz would still not be the frontrunner by any stretch of the imagination as he will still have a lot less delegates then Trump. Instead, it will allow the GOPe to choose another candidate not in the race.

    This is unlikely to happen, as Trump only needs 53% of the remaining, and if he falls short - he will still able to get unbound delegates or even pick a vp from the candidates other than Cruz as a last resort.

    With Erick Erickson in the hospital, voters switching to Kasich now (there is no point to vote for Cruz over Kasich now - it actually gives delegates / voters more power to vote for Kasich), and insiders of the GOPe now announcing they won't show up to the convention, the rout is in place.
    Last edited by SpiritOf1776_J4; 04-20-2016 at 06:47 AM.

  6. #5
    Quote Originally Posted by SpiritOf1776_J4 View Post

    This is unlikely to happen, as Trump only needs 53% of the remaining
    63.5% not 53%

    https://twitter.com/FHQ/status/722756229420949504
    I'm a bit of a statistical junkie. I like to analyze or sum up polling or voting data. That doesn't mean that I believe all the pollmakers - I simply dont know most of the time if they counterfeit their data because of an agenda or not. It's just the only data I have to work with.
    And I love the message of liberty!

  7. #6
    53%

    http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2016...ally-finished/

    It's unlikely Trump would win New York in a landslide, and yet need more delegates afterwards then was widely estimated before Trump won.

  8. #7
    538 updated projections:



    He won't get those 33 from WV, it is a loophole primary and his campaign did not adequately prepare for the ballot issues. It's all going to come down to how he does in CA. He needs to hit that IN number if he doesn't overperform on Apr 26.
    “I don’t think that there will be any curtailing of Donald Trump as president,” he said. "He controls the media, he controls the sentiment [and] he controls everybody. He’s the one who will resort to executive orders more so than [President] Obama ever used them." - Ron Paul

  9. #8
    53% is wrong, 63.5% is correct

    Its explained in the Tweet by Josh Pushnam, lecturer in the Department of Political Science at the University of Georgia, which I posted.

    The site you linked is a unscientific Trump-Fanboy page.
    Last edited by MarcusI; 04-20-2016 at 07:06 AM.
    I'm a bit of a statistical junkie. I like to analyze or sum up polling or voting data. That doesn't mean that I believe all the pollmakers - I simply dont know most of the time if they counterfeit their data because of an agenda or not. It's just the only data I have to work with.
    And I love the message of liberty!



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  11. #9
    Quote Originally Posted by CPUd View Post
    Trump might not even be on the first ballot if he can't get 8 state delegations to put his name up.
    Interesting. Didn't realize that.

  12. #10
    Quote Originally Posted by MarcusI View Post
    53% is wrong, 63.5% is correct

    Its explained in the Tweet by Josh Pushnam, lecturer in the Department of Political Science at the University of Georgia, which I posted.

    The site you linked is a unscientific Trump-Fanboy page.
    Yeah, he is counting the 54 unbound delegates in PA.
    “I don’t think that there will be any curtailing of Donald Trump as president,” he said. "He controls the media, he controls the sentiment [and] he controls everybody. He’s the one who will resort to executive orders more so than [President] Obama ever used them." - Ron Paul

  13. #11
    Amazing that people still think of delegates as a scorecard instead of as real people.

  14. #12
    I dont trust the media to fully comprehend the delegate selection process... very few people actually grasp it.
    __________________________________________________ ________________
    "A politician will do almost anything to keep their job, even become a patriot" - Hearst

  15. #13
    Trump has 845 delegates which means he needs 392. With 734 yet to be decided, that comes to 53.4% of remaining delegates needed to clinch.

    For Cruz to catch Trump in delegates, he needs 653 out of 734 or 89%- otherwise Trump will have more delegates going into the Convention (assumes Kasich gets no delegates which changes this of course- depending on who Kasich takes them from).
    Last edited by Zippyjuan; 04-20-2016 at 11:48 AM.

  16. #14
    Quote Originally Posted by Zippyjuan View Post
    Trump has 845 delegates which means he needs 392. With 734 yet to be decided, that comes to 53.4% of remaining delegates needed to clinch.
    Yes, this is correct.

  17. #15
    Quote Originally Posted by Zippyjuan View Post
    Trump has 845 delegates which means he needs 392. With 734 yet to be decided, that comes to 53.4% of remaining delegates needed to clinch.

    For Cruz to catch Trump in delegates, he needs 653 out of 734 or 89%- otherwise Trump will have more delegates going into the Convention (assumes Kasich gets no delegates which changes this of course- depending on who Kasich takes them from).
    734 is not the number of bound delegates remaining (which is what the press is supposedly counting), it is 680. Subtract 54 for the unbound seats from PA.
    “I don’t think that there will be any curtailing of Donald Trump as president,” he said. "He controls the media, he controls the sentiment [and] he controls everybody. He’s the one who will resort to executive orders more so than [President] Obama ever used them." - Ron Paul

  18. #16
    Quote Originally Posted by MarcusI View Post
    His calculation does not include any unbound delegates (including delegates from ND, CO, WY, LA) who are clearly supporting Cruz.



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  20. #17
    Cruz would need to be doing 50% better than he has been to be even tied with Trump now. Cruz has 559. If he had half of that again, he would still not have as much as Trump. Very poor competitive candidate.
    Last edited by SpiritOf1776_J4; 04-20-2016 at 08:25 PM.

  21. #18
    if cruz wins indiana and it looks like he will then this comes down to the last day in california and cruz will do well enough to force a brokered convention and probably win on the second ballot. This is a full court press by the trumpettes to get people to stay home and think this is over. it isnt over by a long shot and thats accounting for next weeks trump sweep which will be the donald's last hurrah. on a side note cruz really has around 600 delegatesfor the first ballot and remember that kasich and rubio have 300 between them. if those go to cruz cruz is leading
    Last edited by goldwater's ghost; 04-20-2016 at 07:04 PM.

  22. #19
    Quote Originally Posted by goldwater's ghost View Post
    if cruz wins indiana and it looks like he will then this comes down to the last day in california and cruz will do well enough to force a brokered convention and probably win on the second ballot. This is a full court press by the trumpettes to get people to stay home and think this is over. it isnt over by a long shot and thats accounting for next weeks trump sweep which will be the donald's last hurrah. on a side note cruz really has around 600 delegatesfor the first ballot and remember that kasich and rubio have 300 between them. if those go to cruz cruz is leading
    This isn't saying anything more then the subject of the thread - that Cruz can't clinch the nomination or win on the first ballot. There is no reason he would win on the second - he isn't that well liked - but that isn't the thread.

    Nor is it saying anything new about a brokered convention. Although it may come as a surprise to hard core cruz supporters, most normal voters don't want a brokered convention. If that is the only way Cruz can possibly win, many people will not like the risk. Furthermore - anyone who only wants a brokered convention or are just never trump now have an incentive to vote against Cruz and for Kasich. They have more power at the convention that way.

    Face it, Cruz is toast.

  23. #20
    there won't be a contested convention you fools. Trump can easily get to 1100 pledged delegates in the remaining contests, then get the rest he needs from the unpledged pool for a win on the first ballot.

    Any talk of a contested convention at this point is a pipe dream, delusional, denial.

  24. #21
    Quote Originally Posted by spudea View Post
    there won't be a contested convention you fools. Trump can easily get to 1100 pledged delegates in the remaining contests, then get the rest he needs from the unpledged pool for a win on the first ballot.

    Any talk of a contested convention at this point is a pipe dream, delusional, denial.
    If he only gets 1100 he doesn't clinch the nomination on the first ballot.

  25. #22
    Quote Originally Posted by spudea View Post
    there won't be a contested convention you fools. Trump can easily get to 1100 pledged delegates in the remaining contests, then get the rest he needs from the unpledged pool for a win on the first ballot.

    Any talk of a contested convention at this point is a pipe dream, delusional, denial.
    They've never changed the rules right before the convention counts the delegates right?

  26. #23

  27. #24
    Rand is wrong. The convention is governed by the rules written at the 2012 RNC. They can, however, be changed by the rules committee once the convention opens.



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  29. #25
    Quote Originally Posted by SpiritOf1776_J4 View Post
    This isn't saying anything more then the subject of the thread - that Cruz can't clinch the nomination or win on the first ballot. There is no reason he would win on the second - he isn't that well liked - but that isn't the thread.

    Nor is it saying anything new about a brokered convention. Although it may come as a surprise to hard core cruz supporters, most normal voters don't want a brokered convention. If that is the only way Cruz can possibly win, many people will not like the risk. Furthermore - anyone who only wants a brokered convention or are just never trump now have an incentive to vote against Cruz and for Kasich. They have more power at the convention that way.

    Face it, Cruz is toast.
    you have a poster of trump over your bed dont you. careful...it'll make your hands turn orange and tiny. cruz hasnt had a realistic chance of getting the 1200 plus delegates on round one since super tuesday. that has never been his strategy. he's using the ron paul strategy of 2012 all the way to the convention. the difference is its working and all because of your guy
    Last edited by goldwater's ghost; 04-20-2016 at 08:06 PM.

  30. #26
    Quote Originally Posted by TheUglyTruth View Post
    If he only gets 1100 he doesn't clinch the nomination on the first ballot.
    That's not what I said. DO you even know what unbound delegates are?

  31. #27
    Quote Originally Posted by spudea View Post
    That's not what I said. DO you even know what unbound delegates are?
    Are they delegates that aren't bound?

  32. #28
    Quote Originally Posted by goldwater's ghost View Post
    you have a poster of trump over your bed dont you
    I'm not for Trump. But I am now thoroughly #NeverCruz.

    I've seen reporters who have never gotten angry in their life angry at this man for evading, spinning and lying about this question as well as many others. That alone, LACK OF ANY ABILITY TO BE TRUTHFUL would make me against him. I am thoroughly convinced now. I detest the man. I detest his lying, and his phony anti-dildo Christianity. I despise everything about him!

    But there are many other reasons I could never support Cruz. And he isn't even eligible and he knows it.

    Put me down as #nevercruz now.
    Last edited by SpiritOf1776_J4; 04-20-2016 at 08:12 PM.

  33. #29
    Quote Originally Posted by TheUglyTruth View Post
    Are they delegates that aren't bound?

  34. #30
    Quote Originally Posted by TheUglyTruth View Post
    Rand is wrong. The convention is governed by the rules written at the 2012 RNC. They can, however, be changed by the rules committee once the convention opens.
    Source? I've seen people say that 2012 rules only counted during 2012 and even the Ron Paul rule wasn't in play this year, and before Rand said this I read multiple articles saying that they can and are planning on changing the 2016 rules. He could be wrong, but I'm pretty sure the Ron Paul campaign had several lawyers that were working for them in 2012, and Rand probably is the best source we have on this kind of information because he was at the last contested convention, this is why they keep having Ron Paul on the MSM even though he isn't even running.

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