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What I found is a trend that has been widely overlooked.
A voter’s gender, education, age, ideology, party identification, income, and race simply had no statistical bearing on whether someone supported Trump. Neither, despite predictions to the contrary, did evangelicalism.
Here is what did: authoritarianism, by which I mean Americans’ inclination to authoritarian behavior. When political scientists use the term authoritarianism, we are not talking about dictatorships but about a worldview. People who score high on the authoritarian scale value conformity and order, protect social norms, and are wary of outsiders. And when authoritarians feel threatened, they support aggressive leaders and policies.
Authoritarianism and a hybrid variable that links authoritarianism with a personal fear of terrorism were the only two variables that predicted, with statistical significance, support for Trump.
Put simply, Trump won South Carolina because of the overwhelming, unyielding support of authoritarian voters. This chart shows the predicted relationship between authoritarianism and support for Trump. It is statistically and substantively significant — and, as you can see from the upward plot of the line, stunning.
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Both surveys measured authoritarianism with a simple battery of four questions related to parenting. Political scientists, including Marc Hetherington, Jonathan Weiler, and Karen Stenner, have used these questions since the early 1990s to estimate authoritarianism because of their accuracy in predicting authoritarian behavior.
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While the connection between authoritarianism and threat is not new,
there can be a propensity of people who are lower on the authoritarian scale to behave more like authoritarians when threatened — as the political scientists Hetherington and Suhay demonstrated in a 2011 study in the American Journal of Political Science.
The practical implication of this connection is that Americans who are not strong authoritarians behave more like them when they feel threatened. This is exactly the behavior found among South Carolinian supporters of Trump: Voters who had lower scores on the authoritarianism scale were more likely to support Trump if they were more concerned about terrorism.
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More:
http://www.vox.com/2016/2/23/1109964...thoritarianism
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