Rasmussen: Trump 42%, Clinton 37%

[randomname]

Thursday, May 19, 2016

Donald Trump has now grown his lead over Hillary Clinton in Rasmussen Reports’ first weekly White House Watch survey.

Trump earns 42% support to Clinton’s 37% when Likely U.S. Voters are asked whom they would vote for if the presidential election were held today. But Rasmussen Reports’ latest national telephone survey finds that 13% prefer some other candidate, while seven percent (7%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

At the beginning of this month, Trump, the presumptive Republican nominee, posted a statistically insignificant 41% to 39% lead over Clinton who is still expected to win the Democratic presidential nomination. Fifteen percent (15%) favored someone else, and five percent (5%) were undecided.

Rasmussen Reports will update the Clinton-Trump White House Watch matchup numbers every Thursday morning from now until Election Day in November.

The latest findings were gathered the night before and the night after Trump’s announcement yesterday of 11 conservative judges he would consider for the current vacancy on the U.S. Supreme Court, furthering his efforts to unify the party and end the #NeverTrump movement among some Republicans. Clinton on Tuesday eked out a primary win in Kentucky but lost the Oregon primary to Bernie Sanders as the race for the Democratic presidential nomination took a more chaotic turn.

Trump now gets 76% of the Republican vote, while Clinton has 72% Democratic support. Thirteen percent (13%) of Democrats prefer Trump, while nine percent (9%) of GOP voters favor Clinton. Among voters not affiliated with either major party, Trump leads 41% to 28%, but 31% of these voters either like another candidate or are undecided.

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on May 17-18, 2016 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Rasmussen Reports has been running hypothetical matchup surveys between Clinton and Trump for several months. Here’s what we’ve found so far.

While there is much talk of a gender gap in this race, Clinton appears to have a bigger problem with men than Trump does with women. Trump leads by 22 points among men, compared to Clinton’s 11-point advantage among women.

Those under 40 favor Clinton, while older voters prefer Trump by double-digit margins.

Younger voters traditionally have been a key part of the Democratic base, but right now one-third of those voters like some other candidate or are undecided. Many of these voters are likely to be Sanders supporters which highlights how important it will be for Clinton to quickly heal her party after she wins the nomination.

Clinton is well ahead of Trump among black voters but loses the white vote to her GOP opponent. Other minority voters are closely divided.

Seventy-seven percent (77%) of voters who Strongly Approve of the job President Obama is doing favor Clinton. Eighty-six percent (86%) of those who Strongly Disapprove of the president’s job performance prefer Trump.

Just last week, 92% of Democrats said Clinton is still their party’s likely nominee, with 62% who view her nomination as Very Likely.

Voters see Trump as a stronger military leader than Clinton, but most think they’ll be less safe no matter which of them wins in November.

Voters remain lukewarm about Obama's national security policies and expect more of the same if Clinton moves back into the White House next January. Trump, if elected, will definitely change things, voters say, but not necessarily for the best.

Trump met last week with House Speaker Paul Ryan, the highest-ranking Republican member of Congress. Ryan has expressed reservations about endorsing Trump, but GOP voters now think their party should be more like Trump than Ryan anyway.

Sanders’ unexpected success in the 2016 presidential campaign has exposed the growing rift between the Democratic party establishment and the party’s more progressive wing. Still, Democratic voters are more likely than voters in general to think their party should identify with Clinton rather than Sanders.

[Spikender]

That thirteen and seven left over need to all go third party on the same candidate. It would finally be a way onto the national stage. I'll do anything in my limited power to see that happen.

[EBounding]

Tronald's going to waltz right in to the presidency unless Hilldogg does some major restructuring. She can't even finish off a 75 year old socialist from Vermont. I think it's the Dems who have bigger problems at this point since Trump and the GOP are cuddling up more.

[TheCount]

I wouldn't trust Rasmussen Reports to tell me what they had for lunch, let alone predict an election. If you adjust for their standard level of bias, this poll falls in line with others.

The 105 polls released in Senate and gubernatorial races by Rasmussen Reports and its subsidiary, Pulse Opinion Research, missed the final margin between the candidates by 5.8 points, a considerably higher figure than that achieved by most other pollsters. Some 13 of its polls missed by 10 or more points, including one in the Hawaii Senate race that missed the final margin between the candidates by 40 points, the largest error ever recorded in a general election in FiveThirtyEight’s database, which includes all polls conducted since 1998.

Moreover, Rasmussen’s polls were quite biased, overestimating the standing of the Republican candidate by almost 4 points on average. In just 12 cases, Rasmussen’s polls overestimated the margin for the Democrat by 3 or more points. But it did so for the Republican candidate in 55 cases — that is, in more than half of the polls that it issued.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes...rmed-strongly/


That data's a little old... the current 538 model has them 2.3 points off on average. http://fivethirtyeight.com/interacti...lster-ratings/

[EBounding]

I wouldn't trust Rasmussen Reports to tell me what they had for lunch, let alone predict an election.

That's true, they do C-student work.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/interacti...lster-ratings/

[Chieppa1]

That thirteen and seven left over need to all go third party on the same candidate. It would finally be a way onto the national stage. I'll do anything in my limited power to see that happen.

Sucks that we might be stuck with Gary Johnson. He can't articulate or keep an audience. He also sucks at explaining libertarianism on a 3 hour podcast (Joe Rogan)

[Spikender]

Sucks that we might be stuck with Gary Johnson. He can't articulate or keep an audience. He also sucks at explaining libertarianism on a 3 hour podcast (Joe Rogan)

He's not exactly the standard bearer for libertarianism, but if he's what we end up with, he's better than the statist chimps.

I just hope he doesn't give enemies of liberty more ammo by flubbing up too often.

[younglibertarian]

He's not exactly the standard bearer for libertarianism, but if he's what we end up with, he's better than the statist chimps.

I just hope he doesn't give enemies of liberty more ammo by flubbing up too often.

I think he would do well to take some debate classes and polish himself a bit.

[69360]

Tronald's going to waltz right in to the presidency unless Hilldogg does some major restructuring. She can't even finish off a 75 year old socialist from Vermont. I think it's the Dems who have bigger problems at this point since Trump and the GOP are cuddling up more.

No chance Trump wins. Hillary can't finish off Sanders because she wants his voters

I wouldn't trust Rasmussen Reports to tell me what they had for lunch, let alone predict an election. If you adjust for their standard level of bias, this poll falls in line with others.




http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes...rmed-strongly/


That data's a little old... the current 538 model has them 2.3 points off on average. http://fivethirtyeight.com/interacti...lster-ratings/

538 has a bit of a credibility problem lately with Trump winning the primary. I didn't think he would either, but don't claim to be an expert.

Sucks that we might be stuck with Gary Johnson. He can't articulate or keep an audience. He also sucks at explaining libertarianism on a 3 hour podcast (Joe Rogan)

Sucks? He is a popular former 2 term Governor from a blueish state. Nobody else in the LP has ever held statewide office no less national office. He just polled 10% in the general. The LP has never gotten more than 1% before. All their other candidates have zero experience and are nobodies with no name recognition. He isn't expected to win potus, just show well enough to get ballot access, matching funds and maybe make the debates.

[hells_unicorn]

No chance Trump wins. Hillary can't finish off Sanders because she wants his voters

She would do well to simply finish him off then, she's going to be lucky if she can get 30% of them.

538 has a bit of a credibility problem lately with Trump winning the primary. I didn't think he would either, but don't claim to be an expert.

Rasmussen isn't really a reliable poll, but this is going to turn into a trend over the next month or two, particularly as Clinton makes an ass of herself by trying to ignore Sanders and go after Trump while "trying" to court Sanders supporters.

Sucks? He is a popular former 2 term Governor from a blueish state. Nobody else in the LP has ever held statewide office no less national office. He just polled 10% in the general. The LP has never gotten more than 1% before. All their other candidates have zero experience and are nobodies with no name recognition. He isn't expected to win potus, just show well enough to get ballot access, matching funds and maybe make the debates.

Sucks is probably too strong of a word, but he hasn't been able to close the deal outside of New Mexico. He should have ran for the senate as a Republican and kept his name out there. He's not really a great national campaigner.

[CPUd]

I thought Gary made a big mistake in 2012, not only by not running for Senate, but he ran his POTUS campaign on weed and very little else.

[phill4paul]

That thirteen and seven left over need to all go third party on the same candidate. It would finally be a way onto the national stage. I'll do anything in my limited power to see that happen.

^^This. I'm pushing this to those I know that are disenchanted with their R or D choices. 10% would be amazing.

[phill4paul]

Sucks that we might be stuck with Gary Johnson. He can't articulate or keep an audience. He also sucks at explaining libertarianism on a 3 hour podcast (Joe Rogan)

Agreed. But, I do tell people there ain't no way in hell he will when. The next candidate might be better so why not vote L.P? More choices. Etc. I just have to laugh because if Ron was running L.P. there might just be an upset. And I'm not bullshitting. A campaign season late and a few 10's of millions short. Lol.

[Origanalist]

^^This. I'm pushing this to those I know that are disenchanted with their R or D choices. 10% would be amazing.

Ten percent would be kick ass and just enough to get the nations attention.

[phill4paul]

Ten percent would be kick ass and just enough to get the nations attention.

Honestly, if Ron were running, like he did in '08. If we were bringing '12 money bombs in. Dayum. America WOULD have a third party.

[Origanalist]

Honestly, if Ron were running, like he did in '08. If we were bringing '12 money bombs in. Dayum. America WOULD have a third party.

Ya, I agree. The timing sucks.

[undergroundrr]

trump has no direct competitor in a poll like this. Hillary still does. But I've seen Sanders supporters express solidarity with the democratic party more and more over the last few months. They'll fall in line with Hillary quite neatly.

Really, you have to watch an episode or two of "Madam Secretary" if you want to see how gorgeously the MSM is going to dress her up after she's officially nominated.

And is it my imagination or was trump way more aggressive against his Republican opponents than he's been on Hillary?

[phill4paul]

trump has no direct competitor in a poll like this. Hillary still does. But I've seen Sanders supporters express solidarity with the democratic party more and more over the last few months. They'll fall in line with Hillary quite neatly.

Really, you have to watch an episode or two of "Madam Secretary" if you want to see how gorgeously the MSM is going to dress her up after she's officially nominated.

And is it my imagination or was trump way more aggressive against his Republican opponents than he's been on Hillary?

Nope. If Trump were par for course he would be lighting up the M$M about Benghazi and her e-mail $#@! up.

In every damn interview.

He would be using derogatory terms for her.

In every damn interview.

Why is Trump not being Trump?

[RonPaulMall]

I thought Gary made a big mistake in 2012, not only by not running for Senate, but he ran his POTUS campaign on weed and very little else.

He ran on weed because that is literally all he knows about Libertarian philosophy. This is a guy who thinks it is perfectly ok for the government to force a Jewish baker to bake all the pastries for a Nazi Party Convention. He's a mental midget. Good news is he's not the nominee yet. Petersen is everything Johnson is not in terms of in depth understanding of the movement and McAfee if not ideologically perfect is a hell of a lot better than Johnson and has a colorful and exciting personality.

Johnson is basically a slightly retarded Bob Barr on weed.

[misterx]

Honestly, if Ron were running, like he did in '08. If we were bringing '12 money bombs in. Dayum. America WOULD have a third party.

Ron Paul raised 13 million in 2012. Trump has already gotten a guarantee of 100 million from one donor alone. The Rs and Ds will each spend a billion dollars on the campaign.

[Origanalist]

He ran on weed because that is literally all he knows about Libertarian philosophy. This is a guy who thinks it is perfectly ok for the government to force a Jewish baker to bake all the pastries for a Nazi Party Convention. He's a mental midget. Good news is he's not the nominee yet. Petersen is everything Johnson is not in terms of in depth understanding of the movement and McAfee if not ideologically perfect is a hell of a lot better than Johnson and has a colorful and exciting personality.

Johnson is basically a slightly retarded Bob Barr on weed.

LMAO, literally. I can't argue with that.

[phill4paul]

Ron Paul raised 13 million in 2012. Trump has already gotten a guarantee of 100 million from one donor alone. The Rs and Ds will each spend a billion dollars on the campaign.

That was '12. This ain't '12. "Disaffected" voter would be a key word in this election cycle. Granted it is conjecture. If the choices were Hillary and Trump in '12 I believe Ron as an independent could have made a run. Millions truly just want something else and have picked a side because they see no other choice.

[phill4paul]

He ran on weed because that is literally all he knows about Libertarian philosophy. This is a guy who thinks it is perfectly ok for the government to force a Jewish baker to bake all the pastries for a Nazi Party Convention. He's a mental midget. Good news is he's not the nominee yet. Petersen is everything Johnson is not in terms of in depth understanding of the movement and McAfee if not ideologically perfect is a hell of a lot better than Johnson and has a colorful and exciting personality.

Johnson is basically a slightly retarded Bob Barr on weed.

LMAO, literally. I can't argue with that.

I'm right there with you both.

[69360]

LMAO, literally. I can't argue with that.

I can. Johnson was a governor. Petersen is a nobody. McAfee is nuts.

The LP party isn't going to win the election. But if they want to grow, they go with the guy who just polled 10 times better than they ever have.

[puppetmaster]

Rand needs to throw a hail Mary and just go 3rd party.....not yet but soon. Wait for the bad press to create a $#@! storm for Donald and Hillary. $#@! it why be part of a failed system anyway Rand.

[erowe1]

He ran on weed because that is literally all he knows about Libertarian philosophy. This is a guy who thinks it is perfectly ok for the government to force a Jewish baker to bake all the pastries for a Nazi Party Convention. He's a mental midget. Good news is he's not the nominee yet. Petersen is everything Johnson is not in terms of in depth understanding of the movement and McAfee if not ideologically perfect is a hell of a lot better than Johnson and has a colorful and exciting personality.

Johnson is basically a slightly retarded Bob Barr on weed.

Hold on a second. Aren't you the same troll who is constantly promoting Trump in other threads?

[Origanalist]

I can. Johnson was a governor. Petersen is a nobody. McAfee is nuts.

The LP party isn't going to win the election. But if they want to grow, they go with the guy who just polled 10 times better than they ever have.

I donated to the CP to try and help them gain ballot access because I think they have the better candidate. That being said I'm just not a fan of Gary Johnson at all but if he takes the nomination he will get my support and vote just to grow a third party.

[Origanalist]

Hold on a second. Aren't you the same troll who is constantly promoting Trump in other threads?

Yes.

[Brian4Liberty]

So, Hillary and Trump conspired to stop Bernie...

[acptulsa]

He ran on weed because that is literally all he knows about Libertarian philosophy. This is a guy who thinks it is perfectly ok for the government to force a Jewish baker to bake all the pastries for a Nazi Party Convention. He's a mental midget. Good news is he's not the nominee yet. Petersen is everything Johnson is not in terms of in depth understanding of the movement and McAfee if not ideologically perfect is a hell of a lot better than Johnson and has a colorful and exciting personality.

Johnson is basically a slightly retarded Bob Barr on weed.

Hold on a second. Aren't you the same troll who is constantly promoting Trump in other threads?

Oh, he's much more than that. He's the guy who figures Trump has every right and every reason to pander for votes, do what politics demands at the moment, and not actually 'give two craps' about the pressing issues of the day...

Wrong. It was the pro-life people that were giving Trump grief. Apparently at some point along the line they all collectively decided that abortion is murder but that the penalty can only apply to the doctor and not the woman that paid for and conspired to commit the murder. As Trump doesn't actually give two craps about abortion he hadn't paid attention closely enough to be aware of the new party line. He only said what he said to make the pro-life folks happy. When they jumped down his throat instead he quickly took it back and counted down the days till he won the nomination and never had to worry about talking about abortion ever again.

...and Johnson does not have that right.

Not even if what he said will never get a Jewish baker--or anyone else--aborted.