The Litepresence Report on Cryptocurrency

**fatjohn** · 05-30-2016, 04:10 PM

Not the outstanding supply will halve, just the additional mining supply will halve in its rate of creation.

http://www.bitcoinblockhalf.com

What it will do with the price, no one knows, but its a bit like the fed thightening with 470 base points. On the other hand you could also look at it this way, today people are mining bitcoin at almost 2 million per day. Probably most of these are eventually being sold in the market to pay the bills denominated in usd and eur and cny for the mining costs.

This will drop to only 1 million leading to 1 million/day less hitting the market. Is that a lot? Well according to this: https://coinmarketcap.com/exchanges/volume/24-hour/

About 70 million usd is being traded between btc and fiat money on all exchanges excluding the chinese (huobi, okcoin, btcchina). These are excluded because their volume is debatable. However for the sake of argument we'll say that their true combined volume is 130 million usd. This would give us a worldwide volume of 200 million per day. 100 million buy orders, 100 million sell orders. Now you take 1 million sell orders away. I'd say thats a lot, but not yuge.

**presence** · 05-30-2016, 04:56 PM

miners get coins and sell them to pay for mining expenses; electricity/hardware etc.

much of the "downpressure" on price is the action of miners collectively and constantly selling coins to pay for expenses.

when the halvening comes miners will still do just as much work, but the reward they get for their work... in coins, will be half.

so miners as a collective and significant "downpressure" on the market will be reduced by half.

If miners were mining 1000 bitcoin per month... now they only get 500; no matter how much effort they put in (which effects distribution of the award amongst miners but not total output) the reward next month (and into the future) is half the reward this month.

**Suzu** · 05-30-2016, 05:41 PM

Originally Posted by presence

miners get coins and sell them to pay for mining expenses; electricity/hardware etc.

much of the "downpressure" on price is the action of miners collectively and constantly selling coins to pay for expenses.

when the halvening comes miners will still do just as much work, but the reward they get for their work... in coins, will be half.

so miners as a collective and significant "downpressure" on the market will be reduced by half.

If miners were mining 1000 bitcoin per month... now they only get 500; no matter how much effort they put in (which effects distribution of the award amongst miners but not total output) the reward next month (and into the future) is half the reward this month.

By "downpressure" do you mean that the bitcoins produced (and sold) by miners causes the price (in USD) of bitcoin to be held down? If so, how much of an effect will the halving have on the price?

**presence** · 05-30-2016, 06:14 PM

Originally Posted by Suzu

By "downpressure" do you mean that the bitcoins produced (and sold) by miners causes the price (in USD) of bitcoin to be held down?

yes

If so, how much of an effect will the halving have on the price?

to some degree the rise in price we've seen in the past 30 days is "speculation" on what effect it will have on price.

all I can say is I am VERY bullish on btcusd right here on a monthly scale for quantitative reasons.

my algo has been holding all but about 65 hours since Feb 10th.

Mode just switched back to green dragon; usually when it makes that call anew... you're holding through another 60 day bull run.

**presence** · 05-30-2016, 07:59 PM

**bullhammer** · 05-30-2016, 09:40 PM

Originally Posted by presence

Stairway to heaven?

**RonPaulIsGreat** · 05-31-2016, 01:23 AM

Originally Posted by Suzu

But is there any reason to expect it could actually happen?

I think Bitcoin could go higher than 5000.00 if we'd ever get the transaction capacity issue resolved.

There Tons of uses for bitcoin that aren't being exploited at the moment because of the 1MB limit and/or lack of a high speed secondary layer.

Like imagine, when we get a standard for 2nd layer transaction like the proposed lightning network that would allow near instant transfers back and forth for nearly no fee . Well, you could have a game for example, to where everytime you kill a member of the opposing team you would get x amount of bitcoin based on their level, or whatever. So, you might have a 100 micro transactions in a hour as you kill opponents or they kill you. You could start doing realtime stock trading if you wanted to, etc... When you are done, you simply would settle back to the "official" level 1 block chain.

Even without that secondary layer, just expanding the 1MB limit would eliminate the fear of a transaction backlog forming and hindering bitcoins adoption due to aggravation with long delays in receiving confirms for transfers. At Present we often have 10's of blocks in a row all completely full of transactions, this is unacceptable situation imo, and it's doubtful it encourages adoption.

In Short Bitcoin in its present state is pretty hobbled, these things likely will be corrected, so Bitcoin will eventually be more "capable" at some point in the future, and in theory that should mean more appealing to additional users, and more buyers and/or holders means price pressure.

**Suzu** · 05-31-2016, 08:07 AM

Originally Posted by RonPaulIsGreat

the 1MB limit and/or lack of a high speed secondary layer.

I can't even begin to imagine what is meant by the above statement....

Like imagine, when we get a standard for 2nd layer transaction like the proposed lightning network that would allow near instant transfers back and forth for nearly no fee .

I thought Bitcoin could already be transfered nearly instantly with nearly no fee....

Well, you could have a game for example, to where everytime you kill a member of the opposing team you would get x amount of bitcoin based on their level, or whatever. So, you might have a 100 micro transactions in a hour as you kill opponents or they kill you.

Why would you want to have a mess of micro-transactions in a short period of time instead of just one -- at the end, for all of your winnings in that round of the game?

You could start doing realtime stock trading if you wanted to, etc...

For stock trading, I don't think the transactions would be so tiny... but I suppose they would need to be fast.

When you are done, you simply would settle back to the "official" level 1 block chain.

Now you've gone so far over my head that I don't even know how to ask for clarification of that statement!

Bitcoin in its present state is pretty hobbled, these things likely will be corrected, so Bitcoin will eventually be more "capable" at some point in the future, and in theory that should mean more appealing to additional users, and more buyers and/or holders means price pressure.

How far into the future are we looking at here?

What I don't understand is this: Suppose I have a bitcoin payment method that I want to use in buying something on a website or in a store where bitcoin is accepted. You seem to be saying that the "approval" of the sale would be greatly delayed due to this "backlog" of transactions, and the merchant would have to withhold delivery of the product/service until the payment was confirmed -- unlike using a credit card, where approval is nearly instantaneous. Silly me thought it was easier, faster and cheaper to pay with bitcoin. But you seem to be saying that's incorrect; that it takes much longer and costs more than using a credit card.

**muh_roads** · 05-31-2016, 10:27 AM

Originally Posted by RonPaulIsGreat

I think Bitcoin could go higher than 5000.00 if we'd ever get the transaction capacity issue resolved.

There Tons of uses for bitcoin that aren't being exploited at the moment because of the 1MB limit and/or lack of a high speed secondary layer.

Like imagine, when we get a standard for 2nd layer transaction like the proposed lightning network that would allow near instant transfers back and forth for nearly no fee . Well, you could have a game for example, to where everytime you kill a member of the opposing team you would get x amount of bitcoin based on their level, or whatever. So, you might have a 100 micro transactions in a hour as you kill opponents or they kill you. You could start doing realtime stock trading if you wanted to, etc... When you are done, you simply would settle back to the "official" level 1 block chain.

Even without that secondary layer, just expanding the 1MB limit would eliminate the fear of a transaction backlog forming and hindering bitcoins adoption due to aggravation with long delays in receiving confirms for transfers. At Present we often have 10's of blocks in a row all completely full of transactions, this is unacceptable situation imo, and it's doubtful it encourages adoption.

In Short Bitcoin in its present state is pretty hobbled, these things likely will be corrected, so Bitcoin will eventually be more "capable" at some point in the future, and in theory that should mean more appealing to additional users, and more buyers and/or holders means price pressure.

I think LN and Segwit are already live as sidechains aren't they? Transaction capacity should not be an issue.

**kfarnan** · 05-31-2016, 11:08 AM

Originally Posted by Suzu

I can't even begin to imagine what is meant by the above statement....

I thought Bitcoin could already be transfered nearly instantly with nearly no fee....

Why would you want to have a mess of micro-transactions in a short period of time instead of just one -- at the end, for all of your winnings in that round of the game?

For stock trading, I don't think the transactions would be so tiny... but I suppose they would need to be fast.

Now you've gone so far over my head that I don't even know how to ask for clarification of that statement!

How far into the future are we looking at here?

What I don't understand is this: Suppose I have a bitcoin payment method that I want to use in buying something on a website or in a store where bitcoin is accepted. You seem to be saying that the "approval" of the sale would be greatly delayed due to this "backlog" of transactions, and the merchant would have to withhold delivery of the product/service until the payment was confirmed -- unlike using a credit card, where approval is nearly instantaneous. Silly me thought it was easier, faster and cheaper to pay with bitcoin. But you seem to be saying that's incorrect; that it takes much longer and costs more than using a credit card.

There will be fees in the future, to pay the miners. It takes power to support the blockchain. Transactions can be verified quickly by 1 confirmations for smalls. Is it better than the CC banking cartels? Yes.

**RonPaulIsGreat** · 05-31-2016, 02:12 PM

Originally Posted by Suzu

I can't even begin to imagine what is meant by the above statement....

I thought Bitcoin could already be transfered nearly instantly with nearly no fee....

Why would you want to have a mess of micro-transactions in a short period of time instead of just one -- at the end, for all of your winnings in that round of the game?

For stock trading, I don't think the transactions would be so tiny... but I suppose they would need to be fast.

Now you've gone so far over my head that I don't even know how to ask for clarification of that statement!

How far into the future are we looking at here?

What I don't understand is this: Suppose I have a bitcoin payment method that I want to use in buying something on a website or in a store where bitcoin is accepted. You seem to be saying that the "approval" of the sale would be greatly delayed due to this "backlog" of transactions, and the merchant would have to withhold delivery of the product/service until the payment was confirmed -- unlike using a credit card, where approval is nearly instantaneous. Silly me thought it was easier, faster and cheaper to pay with bitcoin. But you seem to be saying that's incorrect; that it takes much longer and costs more than using a credit card.

Bitcoin as is only allows a block to be found on average every 10 minutes. So, the actual settlement is very rarely "fast" it generally takes a block or two to get officially and forever into a block. Online merchants can see your "intent" to send a transaction that is setting in the memory pool, and they typically will inform you that they see that and call it paid, but it's not actually settled until it's in a block. Now if you include an adequate fee it'll eventually get into a block and it doesn't make any difference to an online merchant like newegg if that takes 30 minutes to happen, as they aren't going to ship that fast anyway. But it's not instant.

Now there are proposals and "testing" of add on layers that allow you to send your bitcoins to a secondary network and once in that secondary network which is tied to the regular network would allow trully near instant transactions as in like milliseconds possibly. That network can do tons of transactions, it's not a "permanent" network like bitcoin in that all the bitcoin on the "lightning" network eventually settle back to the level 1 network you are currently using. Essentially it just allows a Very fast way of making a transaction, and allows for a huge number of transactions at little cost. The reasoning for a level 2 network to allow that is because the level 1 bitcoin network records every transaction forever, and for many transactions you don't really need that level of detail, like buying a cup of coffee, or paying .00001 in a video game. The thing is all the bitcoins sent to the lightning network eventually settle back as one lump transaction into the level 1 normal blockchain.

The problem currently is that the level 1 bitcoin which is what is bitcoin today only allows 1MB worth of bitcoin transactions every 10 minutes, and those blocks are getting very full more frequently, so eventually what will happen if more capacity isn't added is there will be longer delays waiting for the first confirmation, and fees will rise. There are plans to increase the blocksize and / or transaction capacity in a couple of ways that should eventually get integrated, however, it is taking them a long time to do it.

Worse case scenario is probably long delays in confirm times, and a less inviting experience, until capacity is increased.

Also to add your credit card doesn't "actually" settle instantly, the bank just approves your transaction, but no funds are actually bank to bank transferred at that instant, they do that in bulk at intervals. Same with ordering on newegg with bitcoin, it's essentially a done deal "instantly" UNLESS something goes crazy and your transaction is not included in a block, and that would really only happen if you fee was to low. Most wallets handle calculating a fee for you, but there is no guarantee it will be adequate 100%, so it's possible you could send a transaction and it just doesn't ever actually get transferred, eventually that "intention" to make a transaction should timeout and your bitcoins would be returned. Again, that's Very very rare, and even more so if you have an adequate fee, however "full" blocks and increased demand on the transaction space as is currently happening will invariably cause that to happen more often, until transaction capacity is increased.

**RonPaulIsGreat** · 05-31-2016, 02:16 PM

Originally Posted by muh_roads

I think LN and Segwit are already live as sidechains aren't they? Transaction capacity should not be an issue.

They are on the testnet, I'm not sure when they'll get integrated.

**bullhammer** · 05-31-2016, 07:43 PM

there is always Litecoin! Also Etherium could really take off, BTC seems to be promoted by a lot of volunteers who sometimes say things that hurt BTC, plus there is no one to go after if things go wrong, with Etherium, there are a group of Developers who promote it and are accountable to it.

**muh_roads** · 06-01-2016, 11:26 AM

Originally Posted by RonPaulIsGreat

They are on the testnet, I'm not sure when they'll get integrated.

I have no problems sending coins, I don't know what people are barking about. Seems like FUD to me.

Of course I send a priority fee with everything I do. It's, like, 14 cents...

**RonPaulIsGreat** · 06-01-2016, 04:07 PM

Originally Posted by muh_roads

I have no problems sending coins, I don't know what people are barking about. Seems like FUD to me.

Of course I send a priority fee with everything I do. It's, like, 14 cents...

Well, considering like .01% of the world uses bitcoin currently, I think we probably will need more space if we want bitcoin to be more than 1st world nerd money.

**XTreat** · 06-02-2016, 09:40 PM

Anyone know why LTC hashrate decreased by about 20%

**FSP-Rebel** · 06-03-2016, 11:43 AM

**RonPaulIsGreat** · 06-03-2016, 12:35 PM

I'm worth a couple thousand more useless fiat dollars today compared to yesterday. Thanks Bitcoin!

**FSP-Rebel** · 06-03-2016, 06:06 PM

**kfarnan** · 06-03-2016, 09:26 PM

Thanks bitcoin. You freed us from the corrupt banker monopoly. I am so much more excited about the future because of bitcoin.

**fatjohn** · 06-04-2016, 03:39 AM

LTC really lagging BTC now. Anyone thinks this will change if the bull run continues?

**bullhammer** · 06-06-2016, 03:52 PM

Originally Posted by fatjohn

LTC really lagging BTC now. Anyone thinks this will change if the bull run continues?

Yes I think LTC will catch up as we get to our next top, I'm guessing by the lack of comments in here the sentiment is still very low which is bullish! I'm still holding but getting a little trigger ready as the next
top gets closer by the day/ hour!

**bullhammer** · 06-06-2016, 03:53 PM

Is everyone posting on a different thread or something? let us know eh!!

**bitman** · 06-06-2016, 04:07 PM

Originally Posted by bullhammer

Is everyone posting on a different thread or something? let us know eh!!

Yes let us know please

**bitman** · 06-06-2016, 04:17 PM

BTC gettin squeezed a bit on first support level by china

**bitman** · 06-06-2016, 04:23 PM

Originally Posted by fatjohn

LTC really lagging BTC now. Anyone thinks this will change if the bull run continues?

just watched most of the 9/11 documentary. its really sad, the twisted global society we live in.
btw, for sure the best documentary regarding 9/11.

**dannno** · 06-06-2016, 04:31 PM

Originally Posted by bitman

just watched most of the 9/11 documentary. its really sad, the twisted global society we live in.
btw, for sure the best documentary regarding 9/11.

Which one?

**bitman** · 06-06-2016, 04:33 PM

the one fatjohn has in his signature

**bitman** · 06-06-2016, 05:33 PM

BTC just popped?

**Suzu** · 06-06-2016, 05:41 PM

Originally Posted by bitman

BTC just popped?

What do you mean by "popped" in this context?

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