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Thread: US Considering Broad Curbs On Chinese Imports

  1. #1

    US Considering Broad Curbs On Chinese Imports

    First thing this morning, when the market was surging and inexplicably rejoicing in the certainty that Trump would back down on tariffs, a nagging feeling that this was all wrong prompted us to ask "What If Trump Does Not Back Down", and to follow it up with a troubling rumor from Strategas, namely that this is all about China, and would involve a massive amount of tariffs, to wit:
    Trump himself has also said that the trade wars have one major target: Beijing, with the rest of the world negotiable collateral damage. Just yesterday, the US trade rep made it clear that both Mexico and Canada would get an exemption from the tariffs once they agreed to a "fair" renegotiation of Nafta.
    And beyond the already announced aluminum and steel tariffs, there is another far more troubling aspect, or rather number, to Trump's protectionist push noted by Strategas. The number is $1 trillion. Here is Strategas:
    President Trump is considering imposing tariffs on Chinese goods in response to China stealing US intellectual property. This is often referred to as Section 301 and President Trump specifically mentioned this action in both his Davos and State of the Union speeches. The rumor around DC is that the US will impose $1 trillion of tariffs, which would shock financial markets. We believe the $1 trillion number is too high. Since the US imports $450bn from China, across the board tariffs would need to be 200 percent. Even for Trump that is too much. But given the magnitude of what is being discussed, China would need to respond.
    If Strategas is correct, and if Trump's ultimate intention is to hit China with tariffs in the "hundreds of billions" (or more), it's on, and the resulting trade wars will promptly cripple all China-facing US corporations first, followed by the rest of the S&P.
    This afternoon, with the unexpected resignation of Gary Cohn, this was partially confirmed, however the full confirmation that it was indeed, all about China, came moments after the Cohn news, when Bloomberg reported that the Trump administration is considering clamping down on Chinese investments in the U.S. by slapping tariffs on a broad range of its imports in response to alleged intellectual-property theft, according to people familiar with the matter.
    The U.S. actions would result from the U.S. Trade Representative’s 301 investigation into China IP practices, and will hardly be a surprise now that Trump's chief trade advisor is Peter Navarro, author of such books as "Death by China" and "Crouching Tiger: What China’s Militarism Means for the World"

    More at: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-...hinese-imports
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankind…it’s people I can’t stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment



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  3. #2
    I hope he follows through despite the considerable opposition by politicians that are owned by the globalists. America first!

    We should not have policy that advances Communist interests to the detriment of the US manufacturing base. Globalists that do not give a damn about American manufacturing, job losses and have no allegiance to this country will of course oppose it. They will claim it will raise the price of goods but that will be temporary as the US markets eventually fill the void.

  4. #3
    For me it's a win-win.
    If it works... we get jobs, manufacturing and domestic production back, a chicken in every pot. yea.
    It it blows up... the empire collapses.
    I'm all good. Next.

  5. #4
    "Let it not be said that we did nothing." - Dr. Ron Paul. "Stand up for what you believe in, even if you are standing alone." - Sophie Magdalena Scholl
    "War is the health of the State." - Randolph Bourne "Freedom is the answer. ... Now, what's the question?" - Ernie Hancock.

  6. #5
    Quote Originally Posted by goldenequity View Post
    For me it's a win-win.
    If it works... we get jobs, manufacturing and domestic production back, a chicken in every pot. yea.
    It it blows up... the empire collapses.
    I'm all good. Next.
    Ya , I am good .

  7. #6
    Quote Originally Posted by AZJoe View Post
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankind…it’s people I can’t stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment

  8. #7
    Quote Originally Posted by Swordsmyth View Post
    Who's the author of that cartoon. What an Idiot!
    It would be more accurate showing the Trump embracing the Democrats firing arrows at the American workers.

    If Trump really wants to make US steel more competitive, he wouldn't be burdening America with more debt by requesting budget deficits breaking Obama's records, and imposing more burdens and taxes on American consumers and business in the form of tariffs. Instead, to really make America competitive, he would be calling for end to the income tax immediately, and thus make every US industry more competitive - increase competitiveness, lower prices and increase profits and income simultaneously, increase demand, increase demand for labor, increase take home pay, lower unemployment, improve standard of living, free up capital for development, research, investment.
    Last edited by AZJoe; 03-07-2018 at 12:40 PM.
    "Let it not be said that we did nothing." - Dr. Ron Paul. "Stand up for what you believe in, even if you are standing alone." - Sophie Magdalena Scholl
    "War is the health of the State." - Randolph Bourne "Freedom is the answer. ... Now, what's the question?" - Ernie Hancock.

  9. #8
    From WSJ via ZeroHedge:

    The immediate impact will be to make the U.S. an island of high-priced steel and aluminum. …

    Mr. Trump seems not to understand that steel-using industries in the U.S. employ some 6.5 million Americans, while steel makers employ about 140,000. …

    Instead of importing steel to make goods in America, many companies will simply import the finished product made from cheaper steel or aluminum abroad.

    Mr. Trump fancies himself the savior of the U.S. auto industry, but he might note that Ford Motor shares fell 3% Thursday and GM’s fell 4%. U.S. Steel gained 5.8%. Mr. Trump has handed a giant gift to foreign car makers, which will now have a cost advantage over Detroit. …

    The National Retail Federation called the tariffs a “tax on American families,” who will pay higher prices for canned goods and even beer in aluminum cans. Another name for this is the Trump voter tax.

    The economic damage will quickly compound because other countries can and will retaliate against U.S. exports. Not steel, but against farm goods, Harley-Davidson motorcycles, Cummins engines, John Deere tractors, and much more. Foreign countries are canny enough to know how to impose maximum political pain …

    Then there’s the diplomatic damage … Mr. Trump is declaring a unilateral exception to U.S. trade agreements that other countries won’t forget and will surely emulate. The national security threat from foreign steel is preposterous because China supplies only 2.2% of U.S. imports and Russia 8.7%. … Canada … supplies 16%, South Korea 10%, Brazil 13% and Mexico 9%. …

    Canada buys more American steel than any other country, accounting for 50% of U.S. steel exports. Mr. Trump is punishing our most important trading partner
    Last edited by AZJoe; 03-06-2018 at 07:57 PM.
    "Let it not be said that we did nothing." - Dr. Ron Paul. "Stand up for what you believe in, even if you are standing alone." - Sophie Magdalena Scholl
    "War is the health of the State." - Randolph Bourne "Freedom is the answer. ... Now, what's the question?" - Ernie Hancock.



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  11. #9
    Quote Originally Posted by AZJoe View Post
    Not from Zero Hedge.

    It's from the editorial board of the Wall Street Journal.

    That would be the same Wall Street that accumulated insane wealth through offshoring our industry in the first place.

    I guess I shouldn't be so terribly surprised, given how thoroughly this forum has been compromised, to see people shilling for Wall Street here. Even after all we'd been through in the trenches of campaigns fighting Wall Street's predation.

    Most folks here have completely lost the plot and are now actively fighting for their own enslavement and subjugation.

  12. #10
    Quote Originally Posted by thoughtomator View Post
    Not from Zero Hedge.
    It's from the editorial board of the Wall Street Journal.
    That would be the same Wall Street that accumulated insane wealth through offshoring our industry in the first place.
    I guess I shouldn't be so terribly surprised, given how thoroughly this forum has been compromised, to see people shilling for Wall Street here. Even after all we'd been through in the trenches of campaigns fighting Wall Street's predation.
    Most folks here have completely lost the plot and are now actively fighting for their own enslavement and subjugation.
    Defending socialist government interventions into the marketplace because because you don't like a newspaper? That's brilliant logic there.
    And yet, not a single word about thew content or the correctness of the article itself.

    The article is correct - free markets, capitalism, freedom, getting government out of the market is the better path to prosperity and competitiveness. Socialistic government interference into the market only artificially enriches a tiny handful of special interest at the expense of and to the detriment of the nation.

    So we should inject more government into the marketplace and drive up the cost it takes to manufacture US automobiles and trucks and tractors and ships and planes and and a million other US manufactured products and drive up the cost burdens on millions of products for Americans products because the WSJ actually said something that is 100 completely accurate. That's nuts.
    "Let it not be said that we did nothing." - Dr. Ron Paul. "Stand up for what you believe in, even if you are standing alone." - Sophie Magdalena Scholl
    "War is the health of the State." - Randolph Bourne "Freedom is the answer. ... Now, what's the question?" - Ernie Hancock.

  13. #11
    Quote Originally Posted by AZJoe View Post
    path to prosperity

  14. #12
    Quote Originally Posted by AZJoe View Post
    Defending socialist
    I stopped reading at the second word, because it contains all that is necessary to demonstrate that the rest of your post is intentionally dishonest.

    The dagger in the back of the liberty movement has your fingerprints all over it.

  15. #13
    Ah, I see @AZJoe took all of five minutes to descend into a neg-rep tantrum.

    Sorry, bud, I'm totally $#@!ing immune to it. Not only do I completely not care, but I'd long since accumulated so much rep that you can spend the rest of your life negging me and it still won't matter.

    But I am totally happy to expose your infantile nature. Thanks for the opportunity to demonstrate so openly and widely what a scumbag you really are.

  16. #14
    Quote Originally Posted by AZJoe View Post
    WSJ via ZeroHedge
    Every single assumption in that article is wrong and devoid of any logic. The USA is the least protectionist country on earth which has lead to $800 billion a year in trade deficits and the decimation of our manufacturing base. They need us more than we need them. China won't do $#@!, Canada won't due $#@!. Justin Trudeau is a weak feeble man child.



    I just want objectivity on this forum and will point out flawed sources or points of view at my leisure.

    Quote Originally Posted by spudea on 01/15/24
    Trump will win every single state primary by double digits.
    Quote Originally Posted by spudea on 04/20/16
    There won't be a contested convention
    Quote Originally Posted by spudea on 05/30/17
    The shooting of Gabrielle Gifford was blamed on putting a crosshair on a political map. I wonder what event we'll see justified with pictures like this.

  17. #15
    Quote Originally Posted by AZJoe View Post
    Defending socialist government interventions into the marketplace because because you don't like a newspaper?
    You've got your terms mixed up, tariffs are part of capitalism. Tariffs funded our government until 1913. Adam Smith in "The Wealth of Nations" discussed the appropriate use of tariffs.

    https://www.newsandtimes.com/politic...se-of-tariffs/

    Retaliatory tariffs should only be established when there is a chance they will work to have both nations lower their restrictions: “There may be good policy in retaliations of this kind, when there is a probability that they will procure the repeal of the high duties or prohibitions complained of. The recovery of a great foreign market will generally more than compensate the transitory inconveniency of paying dearer during a short time for some sorts of goods.”
    I just want objectivity on this forum and will point out flawed sources or points of view at my leisure.

    Quote Originally Posted by spudea on 01/15/24
    Trump will win every single state primary by double digits.
    Quote Originally Posted by spudea on 04/20/16
    There won't be a contested convention
    Quote Originally Posted by spudea on 05/30/17
    The shooting of Gabrielle Gifford was blamed on putting a crosshair on a political map. I wonder what event we'll see justified with pictures like this.

  18. #16
    Quote Originally Posted by spudea View Post
    Every single assumption in that article is wrong and devoid of any logic. The USA is the least protectionist country on earth which has lead to $800 billion a year in trade deficits and the decimation of our manufacturing base. They need us more than we need them. China won't do $#@!, Canada won't due $#@!. Justin Trudeau is a weak feeble man child.
    This is level of a six year old. Its like say "Nuh uh". Spudea's response is devoid of any logic.
    It does not address anything at all in the article.
    Are you trying to argue that increasing the cost of steel and Aluminum will not increase the costs of steel and aluminum? That's nonsensical.
    "Let it not be said that we did nothing." - Dr. Ron Paul. "Stand up for what you believe in, even if you are standing alone." - Sophie Magdalena Scholl
    "War is the health of the State." - Randolph Bourne "Freedom is the answer. ... Now, what's the question?" - Ernie Hancock.



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  20. #17
    Quote Originally Posted by spudea View Post
    You've got your terms mixed up, tariffs are part of capitalism. Tariffs funded our government until 1913. Adam Smith in "The Wealth of Nations" discussed the appropriate use of tariffs.

    https://www.newsandtimes.com/politic...se-of-tariffs/
    Just because taxes and market distortions have been around for a long time does not mean it is capitalism. It is not.
    Sure tariffs, like other taxes, and licensing and government, a protectionism, and distortions, and redistribution of wealth has all been around for a long time. That does not make them capitalist. It is NOT free market. To the contrary it is force and theft.

    Taxation is theft!
    "Let it not be said that we did nothing." - Dr. Ron Paul. "Stand up for what you believe in, even if you are standing alone." - Sophie Magdalena Scholl
    "War is the health of the State." - Randolph Bourne "Freedom is the answer. ... Now, what's the question?" - Ernie Hancock.

  21. #18
    Quote Originally Posted by AZJoe View Post
    This is level of a six year old. Its like say "Nuh uh". Spudea's response is devoid of any logic.
    It does not address anything at all in the article.
    Are you trying to argue that increasing the cost of steel and Aluminum will not increase the costs of steel and aluminum? That's nonsensical.
    The price of US steel, I believe, will remain unaffected. What am I missing?

  22. #19
    Quote Originally Posted by timosman View Post
    The price of US steel, I believe, will remain unaffected. What am I missing?
    Logic and history.
    Putting tarriffs on the price of steel and aluminum raises the price of steel and aluminum for those industries that were purchasing that that steel and aluminum - like the US auto industry and other manufacturing industries. Forcing them to buy from higher priced domestic special interest raises their costs, making many other industries less competitive. The policy of tariffs as trade protection is pure economic fallacy. A small segment special interests is [propped up at the cost of making other industries less competitive.

    Last edited by AZJoe; 03-06-2018 at 08:52 PM.
    "Let it not be said that we did nothing." - Dr. Ron Paul. "Stand up for what you believe in, even if you are standing alone." - Sophie Magdalena Scholl
    "War is the health of the State." - Randolph Bourne "Freedom is the answer. ... Now, what's the question?" - Ernie Hancock.

  23. #20
    Quote Originally Posted by AZJoe View Post
    Logic and history.
    So the main argument is the US economy hasn't been properly stimulated for a while.

  24. #21
    I guess we'll just have to see what happens.

    My biggest gripe is that a just tariff would be a flat rate on all imports. By singling out specific goods and industries, you're bound to cause problems in other areas of the economy that rely on these things.

    Increase tariffs on steel by x % and you just made it harder for American auto manufacturers to compete with foreign auto manufacturers. Unless, you were to charge foreign auto manufacturers an x % tariff as well. Most people don't just buy raw steel to keep around their house. It goes into the production of other things. It really needs to be an everything-or-nothing application or you're going to cause some serious distortions.
    Last edited by nobody's_hero; 03-06-2018 at 09:01 PM.
    Quote Originally Posted by timosman View Post
    This is getting silly.
    Quote Originally Posted by Swordsmyth View Post
    It started silly.
    T.S. Eliot's The Hollow Men

    "One of the penalties for refusing to participate in politics is that you end up being governed by your inferiors." - Plato

    We Are Running Out of Time - Mini Me

    Quote Originally Posted by Philhelm
    I part ways with "libertarianism" when it transitions from ideology grounded in logic into self-defeating autism for the sake of ideological purity.

  25. #22
    Quote Originally Posted by timosman View Post
    So the main argument is the US economy hasn't been properly stimulated for a while.
    Nope. Just the opposite. You're still missing the logic and history, and now verbal comprehension.
    Stop trying to "stimulate" any sector via government -- Whether its special interest tariffs, or healthcare/insurance regulations, or student loans/tuition, or minimum wage laws, or corn subsidies, or trade wars, or licensing, or taxi quotas, or anti-Uber laws, or anything ...
    Reread and rewatch.
    "Let it not be said that we did nothing." - Dr. Ron Paul. "Stand up for what you believe in, even if you are standing alone." - Sophie Magdalena Scholl
    "War is the health of the State." - Randolph Bourne "Freedom is the answer. ... Now, what's the question?" - Ernie Hancock.

  26. #23
    Quote Originally Posted by AZJoe View Post
    Just because taxes and market distortions have been around for a long time does not mean it is capitalism. It is not.
    Sure tariffs, like other taxes, and licensing and government, a protectionism, and distortions, and redistribution of wealth has all been around for a long time. That does not make them capitalist. It is NOT free market. To the contrary it is force and theft.

    Taxation is theft!
    Yep.

    It's called mercantilism & was basically the cause of the Revolution.
    There is no spoon.

  27. #24
    I have to say that this might be just one idea that goes against conventional wisdom and its so crazy that it might just work. For the record, I am against tariffs and taxes. I think the lower the better and if govt needs money, they should charger customers for the services they provide.

    But guys, think of tariffs as sanctions against your country, it makes the country difficult to import foreign good and it forces the country to find ways to produces the items which is made difficult to import because of the sanction. Just think how Iranian, Russian and even North Korea to an extent developed home grown industries to survive the sanctioned levied against them.

    My main problem with the way Trump enacted the tariffs is that it only applied to raw material and not finished products made with steel and aluminum. Essentially, the consumers will get around it by just buying the finished products from foreign countries.



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  29. #25
    Quote Originally Posted by timosman View Post
    The price of US steel, I believe, will remain unaffected. What am I missing?
    Econ 101 and basic supply and demand.
    Quote Originally Posted by Swordsmyth View Post
    Pinochet is the model
    Quote Originally Posted by Swordsmyth View Post
    Liberty preserving authoritarianism.
    Quote Originally Posted by Swordsmyth View Post
    Enforced internal open borders was one of the worst elements of the Constitution.

  30. #26
    Quote Originally Posted by TheCount View Post
    Econ 101 and basic supply and demand.
    That presumes it's somehow cheaper to make steel halfway across the planet and ship it here, than it is to make it here.

    I think it should be self-evident that, if this is the case, it cannot be the outcome of a free market - the cost of shipping alone should make it infeasable.

    Playing the free trade absolutist in the context of what is actually the situation in the real world is like betting big money at a poker table where you know for a fact every other player is cheating their asses off.

    The way to get back to an honest game is to say that cheaters don't get to play. And that's why the tariffs are a good idea right now, because we will never have genuinely free trade as long as we deliberately provide strong financial incentives to cheat and no penalties for getting caught.

    Bottom line: if you value free markets and free trade, and have a time horizon beyond 24 hours from now, then the institution of tariffs to block unfree trade is a major step in the right direction. Now for the first time in 25 years plus we finally have actual leverage in trade negotiations, rather than having every party on the other side of every table know in advance that we were prepared to give away the farm for nothing at all.

  31. #27
    Quote Originally Posted by Ender View Post
    Yep.

    It's called mercantilism & was basically the cause of the Revolution.
    I think it is called dumping - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dumping_(pricing_policy)

  32. #28
    Quote Originally Posted by timosman View Post
    The price of US steel, I believe, will remain unaffected. What am I missing?
    If the price of steel remains unaffected there will be no incentive to move any steel production back to the US. It will not save any jobs.

  33. #29
    Quote Originally Posted by Zippyjuan View Post
    If the price of steel remains unaffected there will be no incentive to move any steel production back to the US. It will not save any jobs.
    Avoiding tariffs would not be enough of an incentive?

  34. #30
    Quote Originally Posted by timosman View Post
    Avoiding tariffs would not be enough of an incentive?
    If the tariff is not high enough to make steel more expensive, no.

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