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Thread: CV-2 Alarmist Neil Ferguson walks back the Apocalypse

  1. #1

    CV-2 Alarmist Neil Ferguson walks back the Apocalypse

    The Scientist Whose Doomsday Pandemic Model Predicted Armageddon Just Walked Back The Apocalyptic Predictions

    British scientist Neil Ferguson ignited the world’s drastic response to the novel Wuhan coronavirus when he published the bombshell report predicting 2.2 million Americans and more than half a million Brits would be killed. After both the U.S. and U.K. governments effectively shut down their citizens and economies, Ferguson is walking back his doomsday scenarios.
    https://thefederalist.com/2020/03/26...c-predictions/



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  3. #2
    Thanks a lot Fergy.

    Don't need a weather man to know which way the wind blows

  4. #3
    Per registered decision, member has been banned for violating community standards as interpreted by TheTexan (respect his authoritah) as authorized by Brian4Liberty Ruling

    May God have mercy on his atheist, police-hating, non-voting, anarchist soul.
    Last edited by Voluntarist; 06-07-2020 at 02:55 PM.
    You have the right to remain silent. Anything you post to the internet can and will be used to humiliate you.

  5. #4
    Quote Originally Posted by Voluntarist View Post
    Actually, he didn't. See https://www.nationalreview.com/corne...9-predictions/


    What The Federalist, The Gateway Pundit, and Zero Hedge (among others) did was look at a single $#@!ing report that Ferguson put out, one that had Worst Case Scenarios (if nothing changed, and isolation tactics were not implemented), and Best Case Scenarios (if isolation tactics were implemented) … and they implied that the Best Case Scenario was somehow "walking back" the Worst Case Scenario in the same report.

    It's completely valid to question the accuracy of the data and assumptions that go into a model; but to misrepresent this situation the way these spin outlets did is just lame.
    almost all the increases in infections and mortalities throughout the world are now in the single digits. Growth has slowed down dramatically. It appears that Doctor Ferguson was correct to walk back the apocalypse.

  6. #5
    https://ncov2019.live/data?fbclid=Iw...snO5wth59hcXmg

    this link tracks the growth of the virus.

    33% growth is no longer a thing.

    All your doomsday models relied on 33% growth in infections and mortality into the millions.

    that’s just not the reality on the ground.

  7. #6
    Worldwide, confirmed case growth is up 5.11% (6.59% US) mortalities up 8.2% (9.03% US) and recoveries up 22% (US 3%)

    if we were still in apocalypse zone, case and mortality growth would be somewhere between 25% and 40% to maintain “exponential growth.”

    I’m sorry to be the one to have to break the news, but the doomsayers were wrong. The moderates were right on this one.

    We may not even hit the 20,000 US fatalities by Dec 31st number that was previously floated as a lower bound.

  8. #7
    Flat or flattish trend of new infections in the US.

    Barring new behaviour, this should start declining soon.

    I could be wrong.

    https://coronavirus.1point3acres.com/
    Last edited by sparebulb; 03-30-2020 at 12:22 PM.

  9. #8
    Quote Originally Posted by sparebulb View Post
    Flat or flattish trend of new infections in the US.

    Barring new behaviour, this should start declining soon.

    I could be wrong.

    https://coronavirus.1point3acres.com/
    Aye. Once US recoveries start ramping up over the next week (US is at 2% recovered while the world is at 22% recovered) we should start seeing null growth, and in another 10-14 days actual declines in active cases.



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  11. #9
    Yes, things should be looking better soon.

    Gunny, to your knowledge, has there been a standardized definition of what "recovered" means?

    The thing that has spooked me about this from the beginning has been the low ration of "recovered" to total infected.

    I suppose that it could simply be that these people are not tracked.

    The other spooky thing is to see that, for instance, 20,000 people newly infected reported today will pretty reliably result in 300 to 350 people dead seven to sixteen days from now. Assuming that the positive test results are reliable.
    Last edited by sparebulb; 03-30-2020 at 12:31 PM.

  12. #10
    Quote Originally Posted by sparebulb View Post
    Yes, things should be looking better soon.

    Gunny, to your knowledge, has there been a standardized definition of what "recovered" means?

    The thing that has spooked me about this from the beginning has been the low ration of "recovered" to total infected.

    I suppose that it could simply be that these people are not tracked.
    as I understand it, to be “recovered,” you have to be 14 days from zero symptoms after a positive test, and test negative twice.

    so you have a 14 day lag, PLUS doctors are currently reluctant to blow tests to confirm something they already “know.”

  13. #11
    Most of the time with most viruses I believe they can declare a recovery in like 3-5 days. The extremely long incubation period of this thing drags a recovery confirmation out to two full weeks. So it will necessarily be a very lagging indicator.

  14. #12
    Per registered decision, member has been banned for violating community standards as interpreted by TheTexan (respect his authoritah) as authorized by Brian4Liberty Ruling

    May God have mercy on his atheist, police-hating, non-voting, anarchist soul.
    Last edited by Voluntarist; 06-07-2020 at 02:56 PM.
    You have the right to remain silent. Anything you post to the internet can and will be used to humiliate you.

  15. #13
    Quote Originally Posted by Voluntarist View Post
    Except that he didn't.
    I understand that you are extremely married to your doomsday scenario, but unfortunately I am actually capable of reading and analyzing positions and data for myself, so....

  16. #14
    I do admit that I find it particularly interesting that someone calling themselves “Voluntarist” is attributing the lack of a materialized doomsday to government intervention.

  17. #15
    Per registered decision, member has been banned for violating community standards as interpreted by TheTexan (respect his authoritah) as authorized by Brian4Liberty Ruling

    May God have mercy on his atheist, police-hating, non-voting, anarchist soul.
    Last edited by Voluntarist; 06-07-2020 at 02:56 PM.
    You have the right to remain silent. Anything you post to the internet can and will be used to humiliate you.

  18. #16
    Per registered decision, member has been banned for violating community standards as interpreted by TheTexan (respect his authoritah) as authorized by Brian4Liberty Ruling

    May God have mercy on his atheist, police-hating, non-voting, anarchist soul.
    Last edited by Voluntarist; 06-07-2020 at 02:57 PM.
    You have the right to remain silent. Anything you post to the internet can and will be used to humiliate you.



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  20. #17
    Per registered decision, member has been banned for violating community standards as interpreted by TheTexan (respect his authoritah) as authorized by Brian4Liberty Ruling

    May God have mercy on his atheist, police-hating, non-voting, anarchist soul.
    Last edited by Voluntarist; 06-07-2020 at 02:57 PM.
    You have the right to remain silent. Anything you post to the internet can and will be used to humiliate you.

  21. #18
    In 2002, doomsday model builder Neil Ferguson predicted that 50,000 to 150,000 people could die from the "mad cow disease" (Creutzfeldt-Jakob). According to the National CJD Research & Surveillance Unit, until 2017 a total of 178 people in the United Kingdom have died from the mad cow disease.
    In 2005, Ferguson predicted that 200 million people could be killed by bird flu (H5N1). In early 2006, the WHO reported only 78 confirmed bird flu deaths out of 147 cases in total.
    In 2009, Ferguson predicted that swine flu (H1N1) would kill 65,000 people in the UK. So far, a reported total of 457 people died of swine flu in the UK.
    Why would we believe (the already downgraded) Ferguson predictions that half a million Britons and 2.2 million Americans could die from Covid–19?!?

    Neil Ferguson is acting director of the Vaccine Impact Modelling Consortium (VIMC), at Imperial College in London, which is funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation and by the Gates funded GAVI.
    GAVI is closely connected to the Gates, Microsoft and Rockefeller Foundation seed-funded ID2020 project, which incorporates Accenture, Microsoft (Gates), Ideo-Org and Rockefeller Foundation that are also tied to the GAVI alliance.
    The ID2020 initiative promotes universal biometric verification for the whole world; as Prashant Yadav, senior fellow at the US-based Center for Global Development, explained:
    Biometric IDs can be a gamechanger. They can help governments target population segments e.g healthcare professionals or the elderly population, verify people who have received vaccination, and have a clear record.
    https://www.ukcolumn.org/article/who...vid19-part-one
    (http://archive.is/Oqits)


    Isn’t it amazing that just about all of the models predicted some sort of pandemic caused by the “novel” coronavirus, while the later “confirmed” COVID-19 deaths are much lower?!?
    Of course the longer they keep the “martial law” in place the more patients will die because they won’t get the proper treatment, which of course will be counted as “confirmed” COVID-19 deaths.

    See for example the difference between several “predicted” hospital beds needed in New York, and the actual – much lower – number of hospital beds…



    The following graph suggests that the countries without a lockdown are "saving lives"...
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  22. #19
    For some reason the following UK modelling exercise has been overlooked by most media but has been heavily criticised when receiving some publicity...

    It is a scientific looking paper with the conclusion that the “coronavirus” pandemic in the UK is already passed its peak, with already 68% of the UK population having been infected (and immune).
    According to Oxford professor Sunetra Gupta, who led the study, the findings can only be corroborated through “large-scale serological surveys — antibody testing”. Without this, of course, any guess at the amount of COVID-19 cases could only be inaccurate...
    Gupta also spoke of the scary “Imperial model”: "I am surprised that there has been such unqualified acceptance of the Imperial model".

    See an excerpt from the paper (this is nothing more than a model though)...
    In both R0 scenarios, by the time the first death was reported (05/03/2020), thousands of individuals (~0.08%) would have already been infected with the virus (as also suggested by [5]). By 19/03/2020, approximately 36% (R0=2.25) and 40% (R0=2.75) of the population would have already been exposed to SARS-CoV-2. Running the same model with R0=2.25 and the proportion of the population at risk of severe disease being distributed around 0.1%, places the start of transmission at 4 days prior to first case detection and 38 days before the first confirmed death and suggests that 68% would have been infected by 19/03/2020.

    The results of the same exercise for Italy (Figure 2) place the time of introduction around 10 days before the first confirmed case, and around a month before the first confirmed death (Figures 2E-F) when the proportion of the population at risk of severe disease is around 1%. By 06/03/2020, approximately 45 days post introduction, the model suggests that approximately 60% (R0 = 2.25) and 64% (R0 = 2.75) of the population would have already been exposed to SARS-CoV-2. When the proportion of the population at risk is around 0.1%, the start of transmission is likely to have occurred 17 days prior to first case detection and 38 days before the first confirmed death with 80% already infected by 06/03/2020.
    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1...291v1.full.pdf
    (http://archive.is/KlCix)
    Do NOT ever read my posts. Google and Yahoo wouldn’t block them without a very good reason: Google-censors-the-world/page3

    The Order of the Garter rules the world: Order of the Garter and the Carolingian dynasty



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