The battle hardened, patriotic PMUs still hold
1. their weapons
2. substantial political power and popularity across the country.
3. support within the 'regular' military
al-Sadar's attempt at disarming them will never succeed (especially now)
The recount would have deposed him so he burned the ballots.
A fresh vote will depose him guaranteed (imo) but it buys him time.
A 'civil' war would depose him... PMU's would kick asss.
His only real power is hegemon support & running terror plots inside Baghdad.
acts of violence that are designed to resemble 'grassroots' dissent..
a marketplace here... a suicide bombing there.
Manipulating the poverty stricken & creating dissent with rhetoric is what he's good at.
If I had to wager... I'd say Iraq must vote again... if they don't... Baghdad's power
will face regional resistance/fracturing and defiance in money flows/taxes
and oil spigots/pipelines sabotaged or ransomed/commandeered.
The good news is that Moqtada has not had time to consolidate power.
He's a proxy for Riyadh against Tehran
and a thorn in the side of the sovereign resistance against the hegemons.
I want to see a strong Syria/Iran/Iraq alliance and recovery...
but it may never happen.
Israel forbids it.
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