The Election Polls Were Wrong (FAKE!)

[r3volution 3.0]

This has been a common refrain among Trumpers trying to spin Dear Leader's historically bad approval ratings.

...i.e. if the election polls were wrong/fake, so must be the current approval ratings.

But were the election polls wrong?

In short, no.


The polls were off by a mere 1.1%, well within the margin of error of every included poll.

By way of comparison, the polls underestimated Obama in 2012 by 3.2%.

/reality

...you may now return to your regularly scheduled rationalizing.

[spudea]

Several state polls were wrong. Please get help from a psychiatrist.

[nobody's_hero]

[timosman]

...you may now return to your regularly scheduled rationalizing.

Where are you going to be?

[Champ]

Unsure on the point of this thread or the value of these general election polls.

General election polls are irrelevant since they do nothing to determine actual results, similar to primary state polls in caucus states where delegates often determine who wins the state through the state caucus, not straw polls. Neither determine anything accept for an opportunity by various media entities to boost morale for a desired candidate.

We have a rich history in these parts of being inundated with the establishments methods of using these polls to curry favor. This was demonstrated repeatedly during 2012 in Ron Paul's campaign when he was polling in 2nd or 3rd, but still won the plurality or majority of delegates in a state. The media downplayed it each time or flat out ignored it, and the RNC went so far as to not even announce Paul had won a single state.

If you want to throw that out the window and hypothetically say that these polls are in fact meaningful, then we can pretend for a second, but you will still have plenty of options where you can see many polling organizations did indeed fail to get within the margin of error based on actual results, as pointed out by the above poster. Buying into that premises is a false one however, so you may not get the amount of discussion you may be looking for on these boards.

[NorthCarolinaLiberty]

Mike: I predict Mr. Smith will win the election!
Ike: Hmm; okay.

[The next day]

Mike: Mr. Smith lost the election.
Ike: Well, sorry your prediction was wrong.
Mike: No, I didn't get it wrong!




I have to wonder what these polling "models" looked like:

"Because we can’t know in advance who is actually going to vote, pollsters develop models predicting who is going to vote and what the electorate will look like on Election Day."
http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank...ed-their-mark/

[nobody's_hero]

Unsure on the point of this thread or the value of these general election polls.

I think it is to try to make Trump look bad at the expense of making the media's behavior excusable.

Please, as much as some of you hate Trump, please let the mainstream media crash and burn. If nothing else comes of his presidency, at least he will have delivered a death blow to the biased networks and there is no circumstance whatsoever that they should be resuscitated. If they get a foot back in the doorway, we're right back where we started.

They were wrong. Their credibility has been demolished. Count your blessings.

[timosman]

Is Rev3.0 the one who had to change their avatar because of the wrong election polls?

[Raginfridus]

Is Rev3.0 the one who had to change their avatar because of the wrong election polls?

Did you guys make wagers with avatars as your stakes during the election? Another forum I visit coded jail bars in the text fields for Hilary supporters after she lost.

[Origanalist]

Is Rev3.0 the one who had to change their avatar because of the wrong election polls?

As I recall he couldn't bring himself to honor that bet. Something about Trump supporters not being human so it didn't matter.......

[timosman]

As I recall he couldn't bring himself to honor that bet. Something about Trump supporters not being human so it didn't matter.......

Rev is like Zippy. They think just because they are fake everybody else is.

[fedupinmo]

Clinton will win.
Clinton will win.
Clinton will win.
Clinton will win.
Clinton will win.
Trump will win.
Clinton will win.
Clinton will win.
Clinton will win.
Clinton will win.
Clinton will win.
Clinton will win.

Wow, you are right... they were only 1% off!

[nikcers]

lock her up
lock her up
lock her up
she didn't win
???
profit

[dannno]

If by 1%, you mean the 1% from 100% (99%) chance they predicted Hillary had to win, ok.

[pcosmar]

She didn't win.

she just didn't lose.

she is still at it.

[Firestarter]

"The" polls?!? Weren´t there dozens of polls?

Posted on 28 October 2016: http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthr...=1#post6342290

Now for evidence that the elections are rigged.
I have finally found something interesting on Wikileaks. Here is the 2008 Atlas project report on how to rig polls: https://wikileaks.org/podesta-emails//fileid/26551/7326
The strategy is really simple: oversampling Hispanics, Native Americans and African Americans: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-1...gh-oversamples

There is even evidence that strategies like these have been used to rig the polls.
According to CNN (Crooked News Network) Hillary Clinton was leading over Trump with a margin of 5: http://edition.cnn.com/2016/10/19/po...trump-by-five/
Nobody will actually read the 19 October poll by Cronkite (Crooked) News: https://cronkitenews.azpbs.org/2016/...016-poll-data/
Or they would see that they simply oversampled Democrats – 413 against only 168 Republicans (but the margin was only 5!). Check out one of the tables from this report.


Reuters rigged the polls from October 25: 43% Democrat against 35% Republican - http://www.realclearpolitics.com/doc...10.25_.16_.pdf

AP rigged another October poll (37% Democrat, 25% Republican): http://ap-gfkpoll.com/main/wp-conten...e_Campaign.pdf

[timosman]

This is not that complicated. Why the journos do not talk about it?

[shakey1]

She didn't win.

she just didn't lose.

she is still at it.

yup... she just won't go away.

[milgram]

Clinton dead-enders and poll apologists don't seem to realize the national election is not determined by the popular vote. Check those battleground state polls on RCP.

Trump polled several points below his actual support in states like Wisconsin, Iowa, Michigan, North Carolina. Before the election, some people noticed how the polls modeled a Barack Obama support level for Clinton voters -- oversampling. So those polls were consistently wrong, but only in one direction. That's why every major election forecast was wrong. There was even talk of a Clinton landslide a week before the election.

Many stories claimed that Georgia was close to turning blue, but how many stories predicted that Minnesota was close to turning red? I'd say none.

The polls were wrong.

[AZJoe]

[timosman]

Nate Silver, the boy genius!

[devil21]

He said "polls".



As if the slaves choose who the Chief Public Relations Officer of the corporation is.

[oyarde]

How close were the polls on the Libertarian candidate ?

[enhanced_deficit]

By way of comparison, the polls underestimated Obama in 2012 by 3.2%.

By the way, did/do you see Hillary / Obama better or worser than Trump ?

Do you agree or disagree that MSM is mostly crooked?

[RJB]

By the way, did/do you see Hillary / Obama better or worser than Trump ?

Do you agree or disagree that MSM is mostly crooked?

My scientific polling data says that he will ignore your questions or not give honest answers.

[Jamesiv1]

This thread is simply screaming for a poll. With fantastic options.

[RJB]

This thread is simply screaming for a poll. With fantastic options.

These forum polls aren't scientific. They need MSM approval to be valid. Sorry. That's the way it is.

[nikcers]

Polls are just math, we discussed this before. You can't have math be wrong, unless the math is wrong. What you had are people looking at math and then making forecasts off of it, its like predicting the weather.

Its a proven science, its not fake science. Some people do science better then others, and some people are payed to do science and produce specific results.

Theoretically speaking though what would telling a bunch of democrats that they are going to win without any effort accomplish?

[r3volution 3.0]

By the way, did/do you see Hillary / Obama better or worser than Trump ?

I see them as the same.

Do you agree or disagree that MSM is mostly crooked?

Agree, obviously

[r3volution 3.0]

Did you guys make wagers with avatars as your stakes during the election? Another forum I visit coded jail bars in the text fields for Hilary supporters after she lost.

I proposed that a scarlet T be permanently affixed to all Trump supporters' avatars (regardless of election outcome).

Didn't happen...

...perhaps because it would have require the main mod here to take a letter.