Irans currency imploding- Arab spring on the way.

[Johnnybags]

The central bank is struggling to maintain the value of the rial but the nuclear dispute, the government's economic policies and fear of a strike makes it almost impossible," said analyst Hamid Farahvashian.

On Tuesday the exchange rate for dollar was 15,300 rials at the free market, from around 13,400 rials to the dollar last week. The rial has lost over 50 percent value against the dollar in the past few months.

International sanctions imposed on Iran since 2006, particularly those which made it difficult to transfer cash in and out of Iran, have had a negative impact on the value of the currency and made it difficult for Iranian banks to do business with western banks.

"Iran is facing serious economic hardship and the situation will worsen because of the increasing tension between the West and Iran over its nuclear activities," said Farahvashian.

[bolil]

Their currency is weak against an empty concept... oh my. My sympathies are with the innocent.

[penguin]

Ironic, to think that if we legalized gold the impact on fiat currencies in countries like Iran would make thier dream of conquest unatainable.

[Steven Douglas]

Ironic, to think that if we legalized gold the impact on fiat currencies in countries like Iran would make thier dream of conquest unatainable.

Not to mention the already realized dream of conquest of the owners of the large banks (not the banks themselves, those are self-destructing getaway vehicles).

[damiengwa]

These fear mongering of iran is all the more silly. Their government is about to fall over.

[Blueskies]

Everyone needs to read Rickard's Currency Wars.

The easiest way to topple an opposing government is to target their currency.

[unknown]

Ironic, to think that if we legalized gold the impact on fiat currencies in countries like Iran would make thier dream of conquest unatainable.

What dream of conquest?

[kuckfeynes]

I have sympathy for those who will suffer from it, but at the same time that is muted by the knowledge that we are only hastening a fate upon them that we ourselves will inevitably face one day.

[ronpaulitician]

"See? The sanctions and tough talk are working."

[swissaustrian]

The rial already stabilized in the last few days, up 2.33% today against the USD:

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=USDI...=on&z=m&q=l&c=

The CIA has been trying to crash the rial even under Bush by the way:

Precise details of what methods the CIA has been authorized to use to pressure Iran are unclear and highly classified. (A CIA spokesman said the agency never comments on allegations of covert action.) One former U.S. undercover operative (anonymous because of intel sensitivities) who has talked with current agency employees about the new CIA effort said that among the ideas that have been discussed are various methods for trying to extend the range of uncensored Internet service into Iranian border areas. According to the ABC News investigative unit, which first reported on the CIA operation last week, the CIA plan "reportedly includes a coordinated campaign of propaganda, disinformation and manipulation of Iran's currency and international financial transactions."

http://web.archive.org/web/200709091...site/newsweek/

The Chinese would probably prop up the rial if needed. They support Iran. Russia might do this aswell.

[Johnnybags]

That looks like Central bank quote not real market.

Iran's riyal hits record low

Published: 01.02.12, 15:26 / Israel News


Iran's currency has hit a new record low to the US dollar, two days after President Barack Obama signed a bill applying penalties against Iran's central bank as the West looks to pressure Tehran over its nuclear program.


State radio said the exchange rate hovered around 16,800 riyals to the dollar, marking a roughly 10 percent slide compared to Thursday's rate of 15,200 riyals to the dollar. (AP)

The rial already stabilized in the last few days, up 2.33% today against the USD:

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=USDI...=on&z=m&q=l&c=

The CIA has been trying to crash the rial even under Bush by the way:

http://web.archive.org/web/200709091...site/newsweek/

The Chinese would probably prop up the rial if needed. They support Iran. Russia might do this aswell.

[swissaustrian]

That looks like Central bank quote not real market.

Iran's riyal hits record low

Published: 01.02.12, 15:26 / Israel News


Iran's currency has hit a new record low to the US dollar, two days after President Barack Obama signed a bill applying penalties against Iran's central bank as the West looks to pressure Tehran over its nuclear program.


State radio said the exchange rate hovered around 16,800 riyals to the dollar, marking a roughly 10 percent slide compared to Thursday's rate of 15,200 riyals to the dollar. (AP)

Weird. I´m getting quotes arround 10,900 on all forex websites and even on Bloomberg`s service which is a very reliable source..

[Johnnybags]

Apparently the spread between central bank quote and on the street exchange is the biggest in history and the the elite in Iran are able to pocket the difference. Obviously the man on the street is getting whacked with inflation and like Egypt when you cannot eat you hit the streets. Probably only weeks away from seeing Iran looking like Syria. Then of course our duty to help the people will be thrust onto FAUX news and a coalition of the willing will be formed.

[swissaustrian]

Press TV, the Iranian government mouthpiece, is reporting on that aswell. They blame the new sanctions against the central bank which have created shortages of Euros (not USD??):
http://www.presstv.ir/detail/218069.html

[swissaustrian]

Apparently the spread between central bank quote and on the street exchange is the biggest in history and the the elite in Iran are able to pocket the difference. Obviously the man on the street is getting whacked with inflation and like Egypt when you cannot eat you hit the streets. Probably only weeks away from seeing Iran looking like Syria. Then of course our duty to help the people will be thrust onto FAUX news and a coalition of the willing will be formed.

That´s probably the explanation.
I doubt that the Iranians will give up so quickly.
They can use their oil and nat gas revenues in foreign currencies to pay for imports of essential goods and then offer artificially low prices to the domestic population.
Additionally, as already mentioned, I think that the Chinese (and the Russians) might intervene in the fx markets.

[specsaregood]

Ironic, to think that if we legalized gold the impact on fiat currencies in countries like Iran would make thier dream of conquest unatainable.

One of the things that came out of the wikleaks embassy cables was this gem:
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/sec...and-buying-mor

"Market observers believe Tehran has been one of the biggest buyers of bullion over the past decade after China, Russia and India, and is among the 20 largest holders of gold reserves... with an alleged 300 tons, big enough to challenge the UK at 310 tons, and more than Spain! "

[swissaustrian]

One of the things that came out of the wikleaks embassy cables was this gem:
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/sec...and-buying-mor

Maybe that´s why gold is down. Iran needed dollars

[Zippyjuan]

The US has very little trade with Iran so the value of the dollar vs the Iranian Rial doens't really mean that much.In 2010, US trade with Iran was only about $200 million. http://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/c5070.html Rial vs Euro chart:


http://www.exchange-rates.org/history/IRR/EUR/G

[swissaustrian]

The US has very little trade with Iran so the value of the dollar vs the Iranian Rial doens't really mean that much.In 2010, US trade with Iran was only about $200 million. http://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/c5070.html Rial vs Euro chart:


http://www.exchange-rates.org/history/IRR/EUR/G

It seems that the IRR/EUR exchange rate in your chart is the official one published by the Iranian central bank. The actual (black) market rate seems to be higher. Just like the IRR/USD rate of the central bank is false.

[Johnnybags]

You guys are missing the point, it is collapsing at the street level against all currencies. I could care less what Iran's central bank wants it to be, what is real is real.

As the business day started in Tehran on Monday, every dollar was traded for IRR16,400, which rapidly rose to IRR 17,000 by early afternoon.

Meanwhile, the CBI has announced the official exchange rate of the US dollar as being IRR 11,180 on its official website.

The parity of the US dollar also soared in traveler's lists on Monday and every dollar was sold for IRR13,510 to outgoing travelers.

Parities of other foreign currencies also rose during the same day with every British pound and euro respectively traded for IRR25,800 and IRR21,110. The reference exchange rate for those currencies has been respectively announced at IRR17,330 and IRR14,440 by the CBI.

Even at the airport, the British pound and euro were sold to outbound travelers respectively at parity rates of IRR21,000 and IRR17,460.

SS/AZ/HGH



This is how the revolt begins, a quick 30-40% rise in necessities.

[swissaustrian]

You guys are missing the point, it is collapsing at the street level against all currencies. I could care less what Iran's central bank wants it to be, what is real is real.

As the business day started in Tehran on Monday, every dollar was traded for IRR16,400, which rapidly rose to IRR 17,000 by early afternoon.

Meanwhile, the CBI has announced the official exchange rate of the US dollar as being IRR 11,180 on its official website.

The parity of the US dollar also soared in traveler's lists on Monday and every dollar was sold for IRR13,510 to outgoing travelers.

Parities of other foreign currencies also rose during the same day with every British pound and euro respectively traded for IRR25,800 and IRR21,110. The reference exchange rate for those currencies has been respectively announced at IRR17,330 and IRR14,440 by the CBI.

Even at the airport, the British pound and euro were sold to outbound travelers respectively at parity rates of IRR21,000 and IRR17,460.

SS/AZ/HGH

The question is whether this is a temporary phenomenon due to the new sanctions or not. It could well be that the official rate and the black market converge once the chaos is over.

[roderik]

Iranians are not Arabs, goddammit.

[amy31416]

Iranians are not Arabs, goddammit.

Lol...was just about to post that.

Nitpickers unite!

[Johnnybags]

Regardless, either the CBI will sell gold and subsidize necessities or in a month or less the people will go nuts. Egypt went nuts when cooking gas prices soared. It will not take long and the world just got a whole lot more expensive for all Iranians, even wealthy ones. I am predicting an uprising ala Egypt is this years story. Save for a China/Russia stick save.


LOL, Arab Springs can happen anywhere.... I will rename it Persian Summer

[heavenlyboy34]

Lol...was just about to post that.

Nitpickers unite!

I came in here specifically to post that. Nitpickers FTW!!

[roderik]

Lol...was just about to post that.

Nitpickers unite!

It's kinda funny, and totally not funny at the same time.
I wonder what happened if i started calling the citizens of Israel Arabs.
How would i know better? Black hair, weird language, hot weather. Arabs, right?

Sorry just had to stick my finger in the wound...

[Seraphim]

From ZeroHedge:

While it will not come as a major surprise to most, according to senior BOE individuals and Wikileaks, Iran, as well as Qatar and Jordan have been actively purchasing gold well over the amount reported to and by the IMF, in an accelerated attempt to diversify their holdings away from the US dollar.

This is why there would be any sort of attack on Iran's currency. It has less to do with gold than it does Iran's desire and action of specifically pulling away from the dollar.

[Johnnybags]

Jan 3 (Reuters) - The Iranian rial fell to a record low against the dollar on Tuesday following U.S. President Barack Obama signing a bill on imposing fresh sanctions against the country's central bank.

The new U.S. sanctions, if fully implemented, could hamper the world's major oil producer's ability to sell oil on international markets.

The exchange rate hovered at 17,200 rials to the dollar, marking a record low. The currency was trading at about 10,500 rials to the U.S. dollar last month.

Some exchange offices in Tehran, when contacted by Reuters, said there was no trading taking place until further notice.

"The rate is changing every second ... we are not taking in any rials to change to dollar or any other foreign currency" said Hamid Bakhshi in central Tehran.

Imposing sanctions on Iran's central bank would tighten the screw and make it more difficult for the world's fifth biggest oil exporter to receive payments for exports -- particularly oil, a vital source of hard currency for Iran.

Sharp rial fluctuations are linked to the foreign sanctions imposed on Iran since 2006 over its disputed nuclear programme, coupled with high inflation and concerns over potential military strike by the United States and Israel.

The United States and Israel have not ruled out military option if diplomacy fails to resolve Iran's nuclear dispute. Tehran denies the West's claim that it is after nuclear bomb, saying its response to any military strike will be firm.

WITHDRAWING SAVINGS

Some analysts suggest that the government is making profit out of the souring price of dollar but the currency drop has created concerns among ordinary Iranians.

Iran's economy is 60 percent reliant on petrodollars and any sanctions imposed on its oil income will put further pressure on the country's ailing economy.

"I have some savings in my account ... I am trying to withdraw it and change all of it to dollars," said housewife Zohreh Ghobadi, while waiting in a long line at a bank.

Iranian authorities have played down any link between the souring exchange rates and the imposition of the U.S. ban.

"The new American sanctions have not materialised yet," Foreign Ministry spokesman Ramin Mehmanparast told a weekly news conference on Tuesday.

"It will take a few months until these sanctions are fully implemented."

Iran responded to the growing international pressure by warning last week that it could shut the Strait of Hormuz in the Gulf if sanctions were imposed on its oil exports.

It launched 10 days of naval wargames in the Gulf as a show of strength, further rattling oil markets and pushing up the price of crude.

The U.S. Fifth Fleet, based in Bahrain, said it would not allow shipping to be disrupted in a waterway through which 40 percent of the world's oil passes.

The price of staple foods has increased by up to 40 percent in recent months and many critics have put the blame on increasing isolation brought about by President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's economic and foreign policies.

[Seraphim]

By the way,

Irans currency is now in the rhealm of hyperinflation if this keeps up. FACT.

[GeorgiaAvenger]

In the end it might be good for the Iranians, if they can oust their dictator.