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Thread: Rasmussen: Trump 42%, Clinton 37%

  1. #31
    Quote Originally Posted by 69360 View Post
    538 has a bit of a credibility problem lately with Trump winning the primary. I didn't think he would either, but don't claim to be an expert.
    I don't see how that causes a credibility problem. Prior to having actual polls to work off of, all primary analysis regardless of source is just fluffy nonsense anyway. You can't make any sort of statistical predictions with a football team's worth of candidates and no polling worth mentioning. Once there was actual data to be had, their analysis was as accurate as ever. There's a quite good article about it that Nate wrote: http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/...-donald-trump/

    Unlike virtually every other forecast we publish at FiveThirtyEight — including the primary and caucus projections I just mentioned — our early estimates of Trump’s chances weren’t based on a statistical model. Instead, they were what we “subjective odds” — which is to say, educated guesses. In other words, we were basically acting like pundits, but attaching numbers to our estimates. And we succumbed to some of the same biases that pundits often suffer, such as not changing our minds quickly enough in the face of new evidence.
    Quote Originally Posted by Swordsmyth View Post
    Pinochet is the model
    Quote Originally Posted by Swordsmyth View Post
    Liberty preserving authoritarianism.
    Quote Originally Posted by Swordsmyth View Post
    Enforced internal open borders was one of the worst elements of the Constitution.



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  3. #32
    “I don’t think that there will be any curtailing of Donald Trump as president,” he said. "He controls the media, he controls the sentiment [and] he controls everybody. He’s the one who will resort to executive orders more so than [President] Obama ever used them." - Ron Paul



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  5. #33
    Quote Originally Posted by Chieppa1 View Post
    Sucks that we might be stuck with Gary Johnson. He can't articulate or keep an audience. He also sucks at explaining libertarianism on a 3 hour podcast (Joe Rogan)
    Ya I wish he was better at it, but he's not too bad, and I think what he really needs to focus on are his leftist friendly policies to bring in Sanders supporters.
    "He's talkin' to his gut like it's a person!!" -me
    "dumpster diving isn't professional." - angelatc
    "You don't need a medical degree to spot obvious bullshit, that's actually a separate skill." -Scott Adams
    "When you are divided, and angry, and controlled, you target those 'different' from you, not those responsible [controllers]" -Q

    "Each of us must choose which course of action we should take: education, conventional political action, or even peaceful civil disobedience to bring about necessary changes. But let it not be said that we did nothing." - Ron Paul

    "Paul said "the wave of the future" is a coalition of anti-authoritarian progressive Democrats and libertarian Republicans in Congress opposed to domestic surveillance, opposed to starting new wars and in favor of ending the so-called War on Drugs."

  6. #34
    Quote Originally Posted by dannno View Post
    Ya I wish he was better at it, but he's not too bad, and I think what he really needs to focus on are his leftist friendly policies to bring in Sanders supporters.
    Yeah, I'm inclined to agree. I find it hard to ask him to consolidate our vote when this herd of cats won't consolidate, or to work at attracting disaffected GOP voters when so many of them would march in lockstep for Hitler if Fox Radio told them to.

    As long as he can't please everyone anyway, catering to the anti-war crowd is probably the best bet. Many of us non-socialists will quietly be grateful that they aren't all voting Green, and fatten their numbers no matter how much the other libertarian cats bitch and moan.
    Quote Originally Posted by Swordsmyth View Post
    We believe our lying eyes...

  7. #35
    Quote Originally Posted by CPUd View Post
    I'm for Vermin Supreme but you are adding outdated polls to the mix which isn't what science does.

  8. #36
    Quote Originally Posted by dude58677 View Post
    I'm for Vermin Supreme but you are adding outdated polls to the mix which isn't what science does.
    It's absolutely what science does. More polls = better data.
    Quote Originally Posted by Swordsmyth View Post
    Pinochet is the model
    Quote Originally Posted by Swordsmyth View Post
    Liberty preserving authoritarianism.
    Quote Originally Posted by Swordsmyth View Post
    Enforced internal open borders was one of the worst elements of the Constitution.

  9. #37
    Quote Originally Posted by TheCount View Post
    It's absolutely what science does. More polls = better data.
    No, science is about falsifiability. That is why the latest research is most valuable. Scientists try to refute their own hypothesis and when they fail to then the evidence supports the hypothesis. This does not mean that some experiment in the future won't refute the hypothesis which is why there is no such thing as fact in science. Karl Popper came up with the term 'falsifiability". It doesn't mean the hypothesis is false it is just that it is possible that it can be shown to be false through a test such as an experiment. If something claims to be scientific and it is unfalsifiable then it is pseudoscience. Science is not a badge you wear it is how you investigate and once you cease investigating through the scientific method then you are no longer practicing science and you cease to be a scientist.

    Given that Hilliary is closely contested in most polls shows that she lost her lead and lost it quickly.

  10. #38
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