View Poll Results: Who will control the House after tomorrow?

Voters
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  • Democrats win a large majority

    6 17.14%
  • Democrats win a slight majority

    6 17.14%
  • Republicans barely hold a slim majority

    15 42.86%
  • Republicans increase their majority

    8 22.86%
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Thread: How do you think tomorrow's House elections will go?

  1. #91
    Quote Originally Posted by Cleaner44 View Post
    For sure. I am certainly happy for the tax cut and that is never an option with Democrats. Republicans have their problems, but the gap between the 2 parties has widened over these last 10 years in my opinion.
    It's not just that, for me, it's regulatory rollbacks that have really improved my bottom line, it's GOP representation at a state level that continues the NH tradition of keeping as much government as possible out of my life...more than a few reasons to say, at this point, one is better than the other.

    I most certainly will take wishy washy GOP over bloodthirsty Bolsheviks and Jacobins that have made it clear they want to exterminate me and my posterity.
    Last edited by Anti Federalist; 11-06-2018 at 02:38 AM.



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  3. #92
    Quote Originally Posted by eleganz View Post
    Seriously how fun is it if you're just going to parrot what literally everyone else is saying?
    The polls are typically accurate, so there's not much work to be done in making reasonable estimates.

    As for fun, that lies in watching people who insist that the polls are fake get clobbered by reality.

    Tomorrow will be entertaining.

  4. #93

  5. #94
    Quote Originally Posted by enhanced_deficit View Post
    If this is confirmed as non-fakenews, tomorrow could be a sucky day for team Navy-Blue (Netanyahu-Conservatives aka Jarvanka-Democrats) and a surprise upset for team Sky-Blue (Soros-Democrats):


    Dems see late surge in Senate battlegrounds...

    COOK: 45 HOUSE SEATS?



    LOL
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  6. #95

  7. #96
    Quote Originally Posted by Swordsmyth View Post
    LOL
    So you still, though it is now obvious, refuse to recognize that your leftward twins will take the House?



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  9. #97
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    Quote Originally Posted by r3volution 3.0 View Post
    The polls are typically accurate, so there's not much work to be done in making reasonable estimates.

    As for fun, that lies in watching people who insist that the polls are fake get clobbered by reality.

    Tomorrow will be entertaining.
    I agree that polls typically are accurate, but not so much since Trump came along. Obviously Hillary was never beating Trump the way the media pretended.

    I suspect the polling now has serious flaws as well. Sometimes the people they choose don't represent an accurate cross section of voters. Sometimes they use the "generic ballot" argument that just doesn't accurately describe the dozens of different Senate races and hundreds of different House races.

    Mostly my instinct told me that those polls in 2016 were false and I get the same impression now. Tomorrow will be the fun part where we get to find out once and for all if the polling of the Blue Wave is accurate.

    Either way we will still have a giant federal government trampling on our liberties, as we all know. I do hope though that the Marxist left suffers another defeat though because they truly are the biggest enemy of liberty that I can see.

    P.S.
    $#@! the Neocons!
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  10. #98
    Quote Originally Posted by r3volution 3.0 View Post
    So you still, though it is now obvious, refuse to recognize that your leftward twins will take the House?
    LOL
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankind…it’s people I can’t stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment

  11. #99
    Quote Originally Posted by Cleaner44 View Post
    I agree that polls typically are accurate, but not so much since Trump came along. Obviously Hillary was never beating Trump the way the media pretended.
    That's not obvious at all.

    That assumes that the pollsters were in a conspiracy to aid Clinton.

    Far more likely that their small error (which is what it was, in the end) was just that: an error.

    I suspect the polling now has serious flaws as well. Sometimes the people they choose don't represent an accurate cross section of voters. Sometimes they use the "generic ballot" argument that just doesn't accurately describe the dozens of different Senate races and hundreds of different House races.
    It's a fair point that the "generic ballot" is a crude measurement.

    But, on the other hand, most House races have no polling at all, none.

    And so broad measures like the generic ballot are instructive.

    Mostly my instinct told me that those polls in 2016 were false and I get the same impression now. Tomorrow will be the fun part where we get to find out once and for all if the polling of the Blue Wave is accurate.

    Either way we will still have a giant federal government trampling on our liberties, as we all know. I do hope though that the Marxist left suffers another defeat though because they truly are the biggest enemy of liberty that I can see.
    The polls in 2016 were on the money; Trump won by a number of votes well within the margin of error.

    $#@! the Neocons!
    Hear Hear

    ..Though it would be best if no one voted.

  12. #100
    Quote Originally Posted by r3volution 3.0 View Post
    That's not obvious at all.

    That assumes that the pollsters were in a conspiracy to aid Clinton.

    Far more likely that their small error (which is what it was, in the end) was just that: an error.



    It's a fair point that the "generic ballot" is a crude measurement.

    But, on the other hand, most House races have no polling at all, none.

    And so broad measures like the generic ballot are instructive.



    The polls in 2016 were on the money; Trump won by a number of votes well within the margin of error.



    Hear Hear

    ..Though it would be best if no one voted.
    All right Nostradamus, why don't you take a break? You can dazzle us with your brilliance BS tomorrow.

  13. #101
    Quote Originally Posted by timosman View Post
    All right Nostradamus, why don't you take a break? You can dazzle us with your brilliance BS tomorrow.
    I'm going to try my best, tomorrow, to not say "I told you so."

    ...I may not succeed,

  14. #102
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    Quote Originally Posted by r3volution 3.0 View Post
    I'm going to try my best, tomorrow, to not say "I told you so."

    ...I may not succeed,
    Don't worry, the opportunity will simply never come up.

  15. #103
    Quote Originally Posted by UWDude View Post
    Don't worry, the opportunity will simply never come up.
    Wanna make a wager?

    Dems take the House, I win; unicorns $#@! money in my driveway, you win.

  16. #104
    Quote Originally Posted by r3volution 3.0 View Post
    Wanna make a wager?

    Dems take the House, I win; unicorns $#@! money in my driveway, you win.
    Keep your money grandpa. The diapers are going to be expensive if the dems win.



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  18. #105
    Quote Originally Posted by r3volution 3.0 View Post
    The polls are typically accurate, so there's not much work to be done in making reasonable estimates.

    As for fun, that lies in watching people who insist that the polls are fake get clobbered by reality.

    Tomorrow will be entertaining.
    Thats the thing, "generally accurate" can easily be the difference between win or loss depending on how much margin you're over or under projecting turnout.

    So you say 2016 polls were "generally accurate" even though they were completely wrong and Clinton got rocked to a margin that was humiliating.

    Simply put, its very easy for the liberal pollsters' liberal projections to draw a picture of a "wave" when it may not be anything but.

    I think the final result will be less than what they were all expecting.
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  19. #106
    Quote Originally Posted by eleganz View Post
    Thats the thing, "generally accurate" can easily be the difference between win or loss depending on how much margin you're over or under projecting turnout.

    So you say 2016 polls were "generally accurate" even though they were completely wrong and Clinton got rocked to a margin that was humiliating.

    Simply put, its very easy for the liberal pollsters' liberal projections to draw a picture of a "wave" when it may not be anything but.

    I think the final result will be less than what they were all expecting.
    The polls in 2016, I say again (and this is simply a matter of fact which you can confirm for yourself if you like) were accurate.

    The polls tomorrow will also be accurate.

    The difference is that there won't be any surprise based on the electoral college.

    There's no electoral college in the mid-terms, of course, so it's pretty straightforward.

  20. #107
    Quote Originally Posted by Cleaner44 View Post
    I agree that polls typically are accurate, but not so much since Trump came along. Obviously Hillary was never beating Trump the way the media pretended.

    I suspect the polling now has serious flaws as well. Sometimes the people they choose don't represent an accurate cross section of voters. Sometimes they use the "generic ballot" argument that just doesn't accurately describe the dozens of different Senate races and hundreds of different House races.

    Mostly my instinct told me that those polls in 2016 were false and I get the same impression now. Tomorrow will be the fun part where we get to find out once and for all if the polling of the Blue Wave is accurate.

    Either way we will still have a giant federal government trampling on our liberties, as we all know. I do hope though that the Marxist left suffers another defeat though because they truly are the biggest enemy of liberty that I can see.

    P.S.
    $#@! the Neocons!
    I think the single biggest flaw in polling is that people are no longer telling the truth.

    In the current environment I don't blame them.

    That said, I stick by my prediction:

    Dems gain a slim margin in the house, GOP holds onto a slim Senate majority, the dems pick up some of governor's races, gridlock all around and life goes on.

  21. #108
    Quote Originally Posted by Zippyjuan View Post
    How so? Only how many votes have been cast in early voting has been released- not who they voted for. But based on those figures, could be the biggest non- presidential year turnout in a long time.
    You can't tell how they voted, but you can tell if they're Republicans or Democrats:

    California Democrats don't seem energized. That could change, but if you can't energize Californians, that's not a good sign.
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  22. #109
    Quote Originally Posted by ThePaleoLibertarian View Post
    You can't tell how they voted, but you can tell if they're Republicans or Democrats:

    California Democrats don't seem energized. That could change, but if you can't energize Californians, that's not a good sign.
    Blue Ebb Tide.
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

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    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment

  23. #110
    Same $#@!, different day. What about different $#@!, different day? The real solution is NO MORE $#@!, and we can just have different days.
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    Belief, Money, and Violence are the three ways all people are controlled

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  24. #111
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    Quote Originally Posted by Anti Federalist View Post
    I think the single biggest flaw in polling is that people are no longer telling the truth.

    In the current environment I don't blame them.

    That said, I stick by my prediction:

    Dems gain a slim margin in the house, GOP holds onto a slim Senate majority, the dems pick up some of governor's races, gridlock all around and life goes on.
    I agree. I can tell you that I used to respond to polls but no longer do. I refuse to tell pollsters my position, but I most definitely have one. In a world where everyone that isn't a flaming Democrat is now called a Nazi, I just am not interested in telling them anything.

    I imagine most Democrats will proudly declare to pollsters which way they plan to vote. I also imagine that many Republicans and Independents aren't so motivated and may even take pleasure in misleading the polls.

    Just to note, Nate Silver gives Dems a 88% chance to win the House.
    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...idterms-header

    This is the same guy that gave Hillary a 71% chance to beat Trump. I am not impressed.
    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...tion-forecast/
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  25. #112
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    Quote Originally Posted by r3volution 3.0 View Post
    The polls in 2016, I say again (and this is simply a matter of fact which you can confirm for yourself if you like) were accurate.

    The polls tomorrow will also be accurate.

    The difference is that there won't be any surprise based on the electoral college.

    There's no electoral college in the mid-terms, of course, so it's pretty straightforward.
    The electoral college was no surprise, at least to anyone over 22.

    The "master of election predictions" Nate Silver certainly factored in the electoral college when he came up with this prediction.

    Electoral Votes:
    • Hillary Clinton 302.2
    • Donald Trump 235.0


    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...tion-forecast/

    The reality is that Nate was NOT accurate, not by a long shot.

    Actual Electoral Votes:
    • Hillary Clinton 227
    • Donald Trump 304


    All of the polls had Hillary winning and they were wrong. Certainly you aren't contending that all of the major polling companies forgot about the electoral college.
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  27. #113
    Quote Originally Posted by Cleaner44 View Post
    The reality is that Nate was NOT accurate, not by a long shot.
    I don't think he properly factored in the hatred of Hillary. I still say that that was the biggest factor in Trump's win. Like all authoritarians, he takes his victory as a sign that the populace supports him - when in reality, they just really, really hated the alternative.
    "And now that the legislators and do-gooders have so futilely inflicted so many systems upon society, may they finally end where they should have begun: May they reject all systems, and try liberty; for liberty is an acknowledgment of faith in God and His works." - Bastiat

    "It is difficult to free fools from the chains they revere." - Voltaire

  28. #114
    Quote Originally Posted by CaptUSA View Post
    I don't think he properly factored in the hatred of Hillary. I still say that that was the biggest factor in Trump's win. Like all authoritarians, he takes his victory as a sign that the populace supports him - when in reality, they just really, really hated the alternative.

    ^^^^This^^^^

    Trump is a full-blown dyed-in-the-wool authoritarian. Even many of his most ardent supporters admit this fact. We USED to oppose authoritarinism around here not support it.

    He's better than the other one, the lesser of two evils argument just doesn't cut it. Just because he's willing to take that classic one step backward in preperation for the two steps forward toward greater authoritarianism, an ever expanding police/surveillance state and perpetual war doesn't make him "the best president since Coolidge" or mean he's "moving the ball in the right direction." It just means that he is, or the powers behind him are savvy enough to realize that that ones step backwards is often necessary to advance his/their agenda.
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  29. #115
    Quote Originally Posted by CaptUSA View Post
    I don't think he properly factored in the hatred of Hillary. I still say that that was the biggest factor in Trump's win. Like all authoritarians, he takes his victory as a sign that the populace supports him - when in reality, they just really, really hated the alternative.
    "You must spread some Reputation around before giving it to CaptUSA again."

    Dang!

  30. #116
    Quote Originally Posted by CCTelander View Post
    ^^^^This^^^^

    Trump is a full-blown dyed-in-the-wool authoritarian. Even many of his most ardent supporters admit this fact. We USED to oppose authoritarinism around here not support it.

    He's better than the other one, the lesser of two evils argument just doesn't cut it. Just because he's willing to take that classic one step backward in preperation for the two steps forward toward greater authoritarianism, an ever expanding police/surveillance state and perpetual war doesn't make him "the best president since Coolidge" or mean he's "moving the ball in the right direction." It just means that he is, or the powers behind him are savvy enough to realize that that ones step backwards is often necessary to advance his/their agenda.
    Yes, all this, but I was really just talking about the polling. It's why Trump's win and his message hasn't really translated into wins for other candidates - at least not yet. If he could have put Hillary on every ballot this midterm, the GOP would have a much better shot. Instead, he thought most people supported his immigration policy so he kept on that message. In reality, they would have taken the devil himself over Hillary, regardless of any messaging.
    "And now that the legislators and do-gooders have so futilely inflicted so many systems upon society, may they finally end where they should have begun: May they reject all systems, and try liberty; for liberty is an acknowledgment of faith in God and His works." - Bastiat

    "It is difficult to free fools from the chains they revere." - Voltaire

  31. #117
    Quote Originally Posted by Anti Federalist View Post
    I think the single biggest flaw in polling is that people are no longer telling the truth.

    In the current environment I don't blame them.

    That said, I stick by my prediction:

    Dems gain a slim margin in the house, GOP holds onto a slim Senate majority, the dems pick up some of governor's races, gridlock all around and life goes on.
    I will die laughing if the Democrats get nothing that they expected and they don't get the house. Heads will splode and I can't wait to hear the narrative that "it's fixed" over them reevaluating their bull$#@!.
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    They are coming home, all the naysayers said they would never leave Syria and then they said they were going to stay in Iraq forever.

    It won't take very long to get them home but it won't be overnight either but Iraq says they can't stay and they are coming home just like Trump said.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Swordsmyth View Post
    Trump had to donate the "right way" and hang out with the "right people" in order to do business in NYC and Hollyweird and in order to investigate and expose them.
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  32. #118
    Quote Originally Posted by Todd View Post
    I will die laughing if the Democrats get nothing that they expected and they don't get the house. Heads will splode and I can't wait to hear the narrative that "it's fixed" over them reevaluating their bull$#@!.
    That will be fun. What would be really fun is if just for once, every incumbent lost. All at once. A resounding repudiation of government.


    Hey, a guy can dream, right???
    Last edited by CaptUSA; 11-06-2018 at 10:53 AM.
    "And now that the legislators and do-gooders have so futilely inflicted so many systems upon society, may they finally end where they should have begun: May they reject all systems, and try liberty; for liberty is an acknowledgment of faith in God and His works." - Bastiat

    "It is difficult to free fools from the chains they revere." - Voltaire

  33. #119
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    Quote Originally Posted by CaptUSA View Post
    I don't think he properly factored in the hatred of Hillary. I still say that that was the biggest factor in Trump's win. Like all authoritarians, he takes his victory as a sign that the populace supports him - when in reality, they just really, really hated the alternative.
    That is certainly a big part of it. I can also tell you that I have a family member that is a woman in her 80s, a life long Democrat and feminist, and she planned on voting for Hillary no matter what. When it came time to vote, she voted for Gary Johnson because Hillary is so corrupt that she just couldn't bring herself to vote for her. She waited her whole life to elect a woman president and then didn't do it. She is a liberal but she has integrity.
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  34. #120
    Quote Originally Posted by ThePaleoLibertarian View Post
    California Democrats don't seem energized. That could change, but if you can't energize Californians, that's not a good sign.
    If I were a democrat I would sit this one out to avoid being triggered.



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