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Thread: Republican Delegate Count- April 1st

  1. #1

    Republican Delegate Count- April 1st

    OK- posting on March 31st but won't be changing by tomorrow.

    Donald Trump: 736
    Ted Cruz: 463
    John Kasich: 143

    Needed to clinch: 1237
    Remaining Delegates: 943

    Still Needed by:

    Trump: 501 or 53.1%
    Cruz: 774 or 82.0%
    Kasich: He cannot possibly get enough. He needs 1,094 out of 943 (116%).

    New figure: To simply catch Trump, Cruz needs 273 more delegates than Trump gets. To do that, he needs 608 of the remaining 943 delegates or 65% of them. That means that to simply secure a delegate majority (not necessarily clinch), Trump needs just 35% or 335 of those remaining.
    Last edited by Zippyjuan; 03-31-2016 at 04:41 PM.



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  3. #2
    Fivethirtyeight projection March 21 (for the case of the contested convention):


    http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/...he-convention/

    The March 22 primaries are fairly close to projection, not sure if he got anything form UT. He'll probably come up short in WI.
    “I don’t think that there will be any curtailing of Donald Trump as president,” he said. "He controls the media, he controls the sentiment [and] he controls everybody. He’s the one who will resort to executive orders more so than [President] Obama ever used them." - Ron Paul

  4. #3
    If Cruz wins Wisconsin big, very difficult for Trump to get to 1237. In fact, as of today Trump is a statistical underdog to get 1237. This week is the first time in a while where I actually feel good about the chances of Trump losing.

  5. #4
    Kasich dropped his statewide ads and is focusing on the Madison market. This will likely shut Trump out of any CD delegates, and with Cruz winning statewide, Trump walks away with 0.


    “I don’t think that there will be any curtailing of Donald Trump as president,” he said. "He controls the media, he controls the sentiment [and] he controls everybody. He’s the one who will resort to executive orders more so than [President] Obama ever used them." - Ron Paul

  6. #5
    The projection above from 538.com provided by CPU'd, which shows Trump arriving at the convention with less than a majority of the delegates, is already out of date and actually slightly overstates Trump's count. Trump got zero delegates from Utah (not 4 as shown) and only 1 (not 2) from American Samoa. Also, personally, in light of latest polling, I doubt that Trump will earn a majority 25 delegates out of the 42 available in the upcoming April 5 Wisconsin primary.
    Brawndo's got what plants crave. Its got electrolytes.



    H. L. Mencken said it best:


    “Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want, and deserve to get it good and hard.”


    "As democracy is perfected, the office of president represents, more and more closely, the inner soul of the people. On some great and glorious day the plain folks of the land will reach their heart's desire at last and the White House will be adorned by a downright moron."

  7. #6
    Sniffing around to see if they are doing a similar strategy in PA. That would be devastating to Trump.
    “I don’t think that there will be any curtailing of Donald Trump as president,” he said. "He controls the media, he controls the sentiment [and] he controls everybody. He’s the one who will resort to executive orders more so than [President] Obama ever used them." - Ron Paul

  8. #7
    Quote Originally Posted by CPUd View Post
    Sniffing around to see if they are doing a similar strategy in PA. That would be devastating to Trump.
    Yah, interesting way PA chooses delegates. In CD's, (54 of the total 71 delegates from the state) they are directly elected. Not sure if the ballot even identifies which presidential candidate (if any) that the delegate candidate supports. But in any case, they are not bound. This system favors connected party insiders and/or candidates with a strong ground game (which ain't T-rump).

    Tuesday 26 April 2016: Pennsylvania Presidential Primary.

    •54 of the Commonwealth's 71 delegates to the Republican National Convention will be directly elected (their names appear on the ballot) in a LOOPHOLE type primary, in which delegates are elected separately from a presidential preference. Each of the 18 Congressional District is allocated 3 delegates (54 = 18 districts × 3 delegates/district). Rule 8.4 of the Republican State Committee of Pennsylvania's Rules states that all delegates elected by Congressional District "...shall run at large within the Districts and shall not be officially committed to any particular candidate on the ballot.".

    •17 (10 base at-large delegates plus 4 bonus delegates plus 3 RNC delegates) of the Commonwealth's 71 delegates to the Republican National Convention delegates are bound for the 1st ballot to the candidate who receives the most votes in the Pennsylvania Presidential Primary. The delegates are released if the candidate withdraws, suspends, or terminates his/her campaign or publicly releases his/her delegates. [Rule 8.3]
    (emphasis mine)

    http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/PA-R
    Last edited by francisco; 03-31-2016 at 03:06 PM.
    Brawndo's got what plants crave. Its got electrolytes.



    H. L. Mencken said it best:


    “Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want, and deserve to get it good and hard.”


    "As democracy is perfected, the office of president represents, more and more closely, the inner soul of the people. On some great and glorious day the plain folks of the land will reach their heart's desire at last and the White House will be adorned by a downright moron."

  9. #8
    WV is directly elected, too.
    “I don’t think that there will be any curtailing of Donald Trump as president,” he said. "He controls the media, he controls the sentiment [and] he controls everybody. He’s the one who will resort to executive orders more so than [President] Obama ever used them." - Ron Paul



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  11. #9
    Wisconsin too close to call- 42 delegates. Winner takes 24.

    April 19th- New York: 95 delegates, proportional allocation. Trump currently polling over 50%. Say 46 delegates.

    April 26th primaries:

    Pennsylvania- 71 delegates -winner takes all. Trump currently leads 35% to 20%. 71 delegates Trump.
    Connecticut- 28 delegates- proportional Trump leads 30% to 11%- probable 8 delegates
    Maryland- 38 delegates- winner take all. Trump leads 34% to 25%. 38 delegates Trump.
    Delaware- 16 delegates- winner take all. No poll I can find.
    Rhode Island- 19 delegates- winner take all. Trump leading 43%- 25%. 19 delegates Trump.

    By "leading" I was looking at latest polling figures at "Real Clear Politics".


    I count 136 for Trump reducing his need to 365 by the end of April
    Last edited by Zippyjuan; 03-31-2016 at 03:32 PM.

  12. #10
    Quote Originally Posted by Krugminator2 View Post
    If Cruz wins Wisconsin big, very difficult for Trump to get to 1237. In fact, as of today Trump is a statistical underdog to get 1237. This week is the first time in a while where I actually feel good about the chances of Trump losing.
    And who winng?
    "Liberty lies in the hearts of men and women; when it dies there, no constitution, no law, no court can save it; no constitution, no law, no court can even do much to help it."
    James Madison

    "It does not take a majority to prevail ... but rather an irate, tireless minority, keen on setting brushfires of freedom in the minds of men." - Samuel Adams



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  13. #11
    Quote Originally Posted by Zippyjuan View Post
    Wisconsin too close to call- 42 delegates. Winner takes 24.

    April 19th- New York: 95 delegates, proportional allocation. Trump currently polling over 50%. Say 46 delegates.

    April 26th primaries:

    Pennsylvania- 71 delegates -winner takes all. Trump currently leads 35% to 20%. 71 delegates Trump.
    Connecticut- 28 delegates- proportional Trump leads 30% to 11%- probable 8 delegates
    Maryland- 38 delegates- winner take all. Trump leads 34% to 25%. 38 delegates Trump.
    Delaware- 16 delegates- winner take all. No poll I can find.
    Rhode Island- 19 delegates- winner take all. Trump leading 43%- 25%. 19 delegates Trump.


    I count 136 for Trump reducing his need to 365 by the end of April
    The other 15 in WI come form the CDs, Cruz will easily take 9-12 of those, Kasich is working on taking the rest. PA and WV does not allocate delegates based on the popular vote, so really no idea what is going to happen there. CT, MD, DE, RI, Trump will take most of those as projected. Cruz will dominate in May contests- these are mostly closed primary or caucus states that depend on a ground game and bringing up local delegates from the precinct/counties to the state convention.
    “I don’t think that there will be any curtailing of Donald Trump as president,” he said. "He controls the media, he controls the sentiment [and] he controls everybody. He’s the one who will resort to executive orders more so than [President] Obama ever used them." - Ron Paul

  14. #12
    Quote Originally Posted by puppetmaster View Post
    And who winng?
    I'd put money on Cruz if not Trump.
    “I don’t think that there will be any curtailing of Donald Trump as president,” he said. "He controls the media, he controls the sentiment [and] he controls everybody. He’s the one who will resort to executive orders more so than [President] Obama ever used them." - Ron Paul

  15. #13
    Quote Originally Posted by puppetmaster View Post
    And who winng?
    The non-Trump delegates would have to unite behind one candidate. It seems more likely Kasich delegates would fall in line with Cruz than vice versa. But Kasich and Rubio delegates might combine and deny Cruz. But it is a big assumption. Maybe Kasich, Rubio and Cruz delegates reach a compromise with Paul Ryan. I have no idea how it will play out. Or there is a Kasich/Cruz or Cruz/Kasich ticket.

    I can't believe any delegate not tied to Trump would then support Trump at the convention, which would deny Trump the nomination.

  16. #14


    ^^^ Those delegates are mostly Cruz supporters
    “I don’t think that there will be any curtailing of Donald Trump as president,” he said. "He controls the media, he controls the sentiment [and] he controls everybody. He’s the one who will resort to executive orders more so than [President] Obama ever used them." - Ron Paul

  17. #15
    Quote Originally Posted by CPUd View Post
    The other 15 in WI come form the CDs, Cruz will easily take 9-12 of those, Kasich is working on taking the rest. PA and WV does not allocate delegates based on the popular vote, so really no idea what is going to happen there. CT, MD, DE, RI, Trump will take most of those as projected. Cruz will dominate in May contests- these are mostly closed primary or caucus states that depend on a ground game and bringing up local delegates from the precinct/counties to the state convention.
    The chart you posted earlier in the thread has 100 more delegates going to Trump in May. Between those and the ones I listed, they account for half of what he currently needs to secure the nomination. They also make it impossible for Cruz to win it. Trump only needs 169 to make it mathematically impossible for Cruz to get enough to clinch (though he could theoretically finish with a majority if that is all Trump picks up).

    Even if he does not clinch, it will be extremely difficult to deny the nomination to whomever has the most delegates without damaging the party.

    They make a lot of noise about not wanting Trump but if he has the delegates, they will support him in the end.
    Last edited by Zippyjuan; 03-31-2016 at 04:20 PM.

  18. #16
    You are all too focused on Trump. The drop dead date for Cruz - the point where Cruz will need more then 100% of the delegates, is more interesting.



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  20. #17
    Quote Originally Posted by Zippyjuan View Post
    The chart you posted earlier in the thread has 100 more delegates going to Trump in May. Between those and the ones I listed, they account for half of what he currently needs to secure the nomination. They also make it impossible for Cruz to win it. Even if he does not clinch, it will be extremely difficult to deny the nomination to whomever has the most delegates without damaging the party.

    They make a lot of noise about not wanting Trump but if he has the delegates, they will support him in the end.
    Again, in a GOP primary, you need to look at where they are coming from, how they are allocated and the politics of that state (this is much more difficult to do- you have to pull up a lot of local press, people on the ground, etc.) just as much as how many are out there. The 538 projection is being generous to Trump in the May contests, I'm inclined to agree with most of their April projections. In PA, there are 71 delegate seats up, only 17 are bound to the winner of the popular vote. The remainder are directly elected. WV and Indiana are unknown; Trump could get those, but not a lot of campaigning or polling is being done there right now.

    It's a lot closer than it looks if you just go by the total numbers they need. Some of the analysts are saying the same things- a month ago they were all leaning toward Trump clinching it, now some of them are not as sure about that.
    “I don’t think that there will be any curtailing of Donald Trump as president,” he said. "He controls the media, he controls the sentiment [and] he controls everybody. He’s the one who will resort to executive orders more so than [President] Obama ever used them." - Ron Paul

  21. #18
    Updated OP. Trump can claim a majority of delegates if he gets at least 35% of the remaining ones up for grabs (330 more). Cruz needs 609.
    Last edited by Zippyjuan; 03-31-2016 at 04:50 PM.

  22. #19
    Quote Originally Posted by SpiritOf1776_J4 View Post
    You are all too focused on Trump. The drop dead date for Cruz - the point where Cruz will need more then 100% of the delegates, is more interesting.
    Anywhere between May and June 7
    “I don’t think that there will be any curtailing of Donald Trump as president,” he said. "He controls the media, he controls the sentiment [and] he controls everybody. He’s the one who will resort to executive orders more so than [President] Obama ever used them." - Ron Paul

  23. #20
    Zippy you need to check this page, they have a tool:
    http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2...alculator.html

    Pretty much every realistic scenario has Trump hitting the number (or not) on 6/7
    “I don’t think that there will be any curtailing of Donald Trump as president,” he said. "He controls the media, he controls the sentiment [and] he controls everybody. He’s the one who will resort to executive orders more so than [President] Obama ever used them." - Ron Paul

  24. #21
    Jan2017
    Member

    Quote Originally Posted by SpiritOf1776_J4 View Post
    You are all too focused on Trump. The drop dead date for Cruz - the point where Cruz will need more then 100% of the delegates, is more interesting.
    Probably on April 19 (April 26 at the latest) Ted Cruz would be mathematically eliminated . . .
    Teddy needs 772 out of 848 as of now, using AP/Washington Post numbers.

    Even more interesting, imo, is if Cruz (and Kasich) could together come up with at least 351 of those remaining delegates,
    then Trump adds only 497, short of the majority of the 2,452 total delegates he needs.

    The AP delegate count:
    Trump: 739.
    Cruz: 465
    Rubio: 166
    Kasich: 143.

    Needed to win the nomination: 1,237.

  25. #22
    I sense people posting in this thread want Cruz to win a contested convention, if that happens, 30% of the GOP voters will be so pissed off they won't show up in November, election handed to Hillary.
    Et cognoscetis veritatem et veritas liberabit vos

  26. #23
    A contested convention would be more exciting than the usual boring speeches at the coronation. I don't like either but they are the only options left to look at.

  27. #24
    Maybe Rand Paul could jump back in if that Ted Cruz scandal comes to light.
    Et cognoscetis veritatem et veritas liberabit vos



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  29. #25
    Quote Originally Posted by ProBlue33 View Post
    I sense people posting in this thread want Cruz to win a contested convention, if that happens, 30% of the GOP voters will be so pissed off they won't show up in November, election handed to Hillary.
    That's going to happen anyway.
    “I don’t think that there will be any curtailing of Donald Trump as president,” he said. "He controls the media, he controls the sentiment [and] he controls everybody. He’s the one who will resort to executive orders more so than [President] Obama ever used them." - Ron Paul

  30. #26
    Attacks in the primary season can be good or bad. They may give the opposition something to use in the General Election or the topic may be "old news" by then and not matter to anybody (plus the candidate has time to ready a response if it does come up again).

  31. #27
    Trump is polling so high in new york that he could get all 95 delegates. If cruz or kasich get under 20% in NY, they get 0 delegates.

  32. #28
    Quote Originally Posted by spudea View Post
    Trump is polling so high in new york that he could get all 95 delegates. If cruz or kasich get under 20% in NY, they get 0 delegates.
    Very, very unlikely that T-rump (or anyone else, for that matter) could get all 95 delegates. For that to happen, the candidate would have to get 50% or more of the vote in each and every one of NY's 27 Congressional districts. Here are the allocation rules:

    Tuesday 19 April 2016: All 95 of New York's delegates to the Republican National Convention are allocated to presidential contenders in today's New York Presidential Primary. [Rules of the New York Republican State Committee. Article XI. Rule 1.]


    •81 district delegates are bound to presidential contenders based on the primary results in each of the state's 27 congressional districts. Each congressional district is assigned 3 National Convention delegates who are slated by the Presidential candidates prior to the primary. In each district:
    •If a candidate receives more than 50% or only 1 candidate receives 20% or more of the vote, that candidate receives all 3 delegates.
    •Otherwise, if at least 2 presidential contenders receive 20% or more of the vote, the candidate with the most votes receives 2 delegates and the candidate with the second most of votes receives 1 delegate.
    •Otherwise, if no presidential contender receives 20% or more of the vote, the party will elect 3 delegates without considering the results of the primary.
    •14 At-Large delegates (10 base at-large delegates plus 1 bonus delegates plus 3 RNC delegates) are bound to presidential contenders "winner-take-most" based on the statewide primary results. 11 of these delegates (the 10 base at-large delegates plus 1 bonus delegates) are elected at the state committee meeting.
    •If a candidate receives more than 50% of the vote, that candidate receives all 14 delegates.
    •Otherwise, the delegates are distributed proportionally to those candidates receiving 20% or more of the vote. Round fractions to the nearest whole number. If too few delegates are allocated, the candidate receiving the largest vote receives those the remaining delegates. If too many delegates are allocated, subtract those delegates from the candidate(s) who met the threshold but had the smallest number of votes
    http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/NY-R
    Brawndo's got what plants crave. Its got electrolytes.



    H. L. Mencken said it best:


    “Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want, and deserve to get it good and hard.”


    "As democracy is perfected, the office of president represents, more and more closely, the inner soul of the people. On some great and glorious day the plain folks of the land will reach their heart's desire at last and the White House will be adorned by a downright moron."

  33. #29
    Quote Originally Posted by ProBlue33 View Post
    I sense people posting in this thread want Cruz to win a contested convention, if that happens, 30% of the GOP voters will be so pissed off they won't show up in November, election handed to Hillary.
    I suspect some here have ulterior motives so that would make them very happy. These same people would be trashing whomever the front runner is including if it were Rand, they would find some slight as a reason.
    * See my visitor message area for caveats related to my posting history here.
    * Also, I have effectively retired from all social media including posting here and are basically opting out of anything to do with national politics or this country on federal or state level and rather focusing locally. I may stop by from time to time to discuss philosophy on a general level related to Libertarian schools of thought and application in the real world.

  34. #30
    I suspect that some people in here would be happy if Trump was the nominee, but he won't be the nominee for the same reason Ron Paul wasn't the nominee. Even if he were to be the nominee, he would lose against Clinton, because people like Ron Paul would not vote for Trump to stop Clinton.

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