Peter Schiff: The End is Near

[nikcers]

[Zippyjuan]

The end is always near. Hyperinflation. $5000 gold. Coming in 2009. 2010. 2011. 2012.....

He did predict the last recession. (because he always predicts a recession). Eventually there will be another one- and he will again claim he is always right.

[acptulsa]

Peter Schiff has been saying this for a while. He's obviously not the best source to go to for the timing of the thing. But his take on the fundamentals is mighty hard to argue with. I think he knows where this is going.

Of course, he doesn't know when it'll get there. If anyone does, they've the power to arrange it, and they won't be sharing their inside information with us. There's not much for it but to try to come up with a plan that can be implemented quickly and stand ready--or forget the gains everyone else is making, go bearish now, and avoid the Christmas rush.

After October of 1929 there was a recession and a stock market rebound, which lasted until mid-1932. Was that a 'dead cat bounce'? Call it what you will, but it was irrational exuberance on Wall St. while Main St. remained moribund.

We can't say, so if these rebounds, these irrational fits if exuberance, these major league dead cat bounces, last two and a half years, we should have seen the other end of it in the spring of 2011. So this must be something else entirely. There's no reason to believe history would repeat right down to the timetable, and they have gotten much, much better at blowing bubbles than they were eighty-five years ago. Who knows how far a dead cat can bounce with dozens of skilled hit air balloonists trying to keep it from falling back to earth?

I'm with Schiff. We're eventually going to find out.

[acptulsa]

The end is always near. Hyperinflation. $5000 gold. Coming in 2009. 2010. 2011. 2012.....

He did predict the last recession. (because he always predicts a recession). Eventually there will be another one- and he will again claim he is always right.

Did you not watch the video? Or did you watch it, and make up your mind to fool people about what's in it?

He's not predicting just another recession. He's predicting systemic collapse.

Do you suppose he'll be claiming he was right if we have just another recession?

[Zippyjuan]

Did you not watch the video? Or did you watch it, and make up your mind to fool people about what's in it?

He's not predicting just another recession. He's predicting systemic collapse.

Do you suppose he'll be claiming he was right if we have just another recession?

His schtick is fear- the big collapse. He has been saying the next one will be far worse than the Great Recession since that one started.

Five years ago (video at link): http://video.foxbusiness.com/v/16718...#sp=show-clips

Banks fail. Runaway inflation. Gold going a lot higher.

Schiff: Upcoming Recession Worse Than 2008

[acptulsa]

His schtick is fear- the big collapse.

Is that what he predicted in 2008? No? Then how is that a schtick?

If the man believes we reacted to 2008 by blowing bigger and bigger bubbles, and that it's going to be a Big Bang when they pop, then that's his prediction. If that was his whole schtick, he's have been predicting that prior to 2008. He wasn't.

Has this dead cat bubble bounce lasted far, far longer than he expected? Has he denied that?

And how do you square 'Banks fail. Runaway inflation. Gold going a lot higher,' with, 'Eventually there will be another one, and he will again claim he is always right'? Is 'another one' his prediction, or is 'banks fail, runaway inflation' his prediction? Can't you make up your mind?

[Zippyjuan]

Schiff in 2010:

https://www.fool.com/investing/gener...a-depress.aspx

Peter Schiff: We're in the early stages of a depression now. It's going to be a horrific experience for average Americans who are going to watch their standard of living plunge. The cost of living is going to escalate dramatically. We are going to see soaring prices for the basic necessities of life, like energy, clothing, and other things. Education and health-care costs are going to continue to spiral out of control. Millions of more Americans are going to lose their jobs, and all of us are going to lose our freedoms and our rights. As the government gets bigger, it tries to end the crisis; but its policies are creating, perpetuating, and making it worse.

The sad fact is these policies are going to wipe out the middle class. They're going to wipe out the poor; they're going to wipe out retirees. Accumulated savings is going to be blown.

Schonberger: If we continue on the current policy path, is there a chance the U.S. is facing a Japan scenario where we're in a slow-growth, deflationary malaise?

Schiff: No. There's no chance of us getting off as easy as Japan. Our situation is considerably worse. We're going to have runaway inflation and recession simultaneously. I call what we're going to have an inflationary depression, which is the worst possible depression you can have.

Schonberger: So you're still buying gold, which is currently trading around $1,200 an ounce. Where do you see gold going from these levels?

Schiff: There's no limit to how high gold prices will go. They will rise many times from here --thousands and thousands of dollars per ounce higher. People will be shocked.

But I do believe that the Dow Jones will fall down to about one ounce of gold, which is an 80% or so decline from where it is right now.

How has the DOW done since then? 80% decline?



What about gold?

It was about $1200. It is now about $1350. Thousands and thousands higher? (Gold did go to $1900 in 2011- higher but not "thousands" higher).

Have millions more Americans lost their jobs? Has the cost of living exploded?

[acptulsa]

Schiff in 2010:

How has the DOW done since then? 80% decline?

What about gold?

It was about $1200. It is now about $1350. Thousands and thousands higher? (Gold did go to $1900 in 2011- higher but not "thousands" higher).

Have millions more Americans lost their jobs? Has the cost of living exploded?

Not yet. Did he say it was already underway? Or did he merely say it was inevitable if the U.S. continued blowing this bubble, sooner or later?

It wasn't sooner. Later isn't over yet, and you know it.

[Zippyjuan]

Not yet. Did he say it was already underway? Or did he merely say it was inevitable if the U.S. continued blowing this bubble, sooner or later?

It wasn't sooner. Later isn't over yet, and you know it.

Yes, he did say "underway" in 2010.

Jennifer Schonberger: What's your take on the state of the economy now?

Peter Schiff:We're in the early stages of a depression now.

It's going to be a horrific experience for average Americans who are going to watch their standard of living plunge. The cost of living is going to escalate dramatically. We are going to see soaring prices for the basic necessities of life, like energy, clothing, and other things.

[acptulsa]

Yes, he did say "underway" in 2010.

And?

If you're thinking the stock market can't rise during the early stages of a depression, go review what it did between November of 1929 and the spring of 1932.

If we weren't, why was the Fed printing all that money at the time? Just because they like making money the old fashioned way?

[Zippyjuan]

And?

If you're thinking the stock market can't rise during the early stages of a depression, go review what it did between November of 1929 and the spring of 1932.

If we weren't, why was the Fed printing all that money at the time? Just because they like making money the old fashioned way?

Schiff said they were going to fall 80%. At the time, the Dow was about 10,500. It is about 25,000 today.

[acptulsa]

Schiff said they were going to fall 80%. At the time, the Dow was about 10,500. It is about 25,000 today.

And?

Once again, I refer you to what the market did between 1929 and 1932. A big bubble was blown, and then that bubble blew.

We won't know if Schiff was right or wrong until we see where this 25,000 point bubble goes. Will we?

You can keep pointing out that there's a bubble which hasn't popped yet until you're blue in the fingers. But the fact of the matter is, by bragging about the ripe fullness of the bubble you're merely pointing out that there's a bubble.

[Zippyjuan]

And?

Once again, I refer you to what the market did between 1929 and 1932. A big bubble was blown, and then that bubble blew.

We won't know if Schiff was right or wrong until we see where this 25,000 point bubble goes. Will we?

You can keep pointing out that there's a bubble which hasn't popped yet until you're blue in the fingers. But the fact of the matter is, by bragging about the ripe fullness of the bubble you're merely pointing out that there's a bubble.

How long do we have to wait to see if 2010 was the start of a new recession as he claimed? How long to wait for his predicted hyperinflation as part of that recession to take hold?

http://www.economist.com/node/15911334

When did it end?

THE American recession is over. In the summer of 2009 real GDP and industrial production hit bottom and resumed growth, and expansion in both measures strengthened as the year ended. Industrial production has continued to grow in early 2010 as, in all likelihood, has output. By the end of the current quarter the American economy may have returned to its pre-recession peak in real GDP.

[acptulsa]

How long do we have to wait to see if 2010 was the start of a new recession as he claimed?

Gee, Zippy. Let me get my Magic 8 Ball out. Be right with you...

[Zippyjuan]

Gee, Zippy. Let me get my Magic 8 Ball out. Be right with you...

2010 was not the beginning of a recession but the end of one. You don't need a Magic 8 Ball to see it. Schiff was wrong.

But when you predict a crisis every year, you will eventually get one right.

[nikcers]

Schiff in 2010:

How may wars since 2010?

[Krugminator2]

Schiff has all of the worst characteristics of market losers.

1. He makes fundamental macro predictions that are unknowable then he trades his clients money on them.
2. He is extremely confident in his opinions and then won't change them when he is proven wrong
3. I heard him say he lost money 2008 because the market didn't know what was right. He said gold and these random currencies should have gone up but people were too stupid to understand it.
4. He goes against 1 million percent a century gains that equities holders experience. It never pays to be a long term bear.

It is funny that Warren Buffett has no idea what will happen with interest rates. Yet somehow Peter Schiff is certain of what will happen. Which begs the question, why does Peter have the $#@!tiest money management record in history if he is such a bond genius?

[Zippyjuan]

https://beinglibertarian.com/peter-s...ous-economist/

Why Peter Schiff Isn’t a Serious Economist


“He’s predicted twenty of the last four recessions.”

That was a quote from a libertarian economist who I have a lot of respect for; however I haven’t asked if he’d like to be quoted on this or not so he will remain nameless.

I was at a conference about a year ago; speaking to an economist I have a pretty heavy admiration for. He’s a hardcore libertarian, and from careful research he said something very rare for a libertarian today: he said, “The future of the economy does look good, but with some problems that could prevent future growth” and I thought, “Yes!”

I was so happy that a libertarian economist finally threw away this theory of “the next collapse”; a theory which has become, at this point, an almost Alex Jones level conspiracy (in which many libertarians are saying “any day now the market will crash!” almost looking forward to it).

The man we spoke about was none other than the poster child for “collapse” rhetoric, Peter Schiff of Euro Pacific Capital. Peter Schiff, the man who has predicted twenty of the last four recessions.

What I like about Peter Schiff

I think he is a very commanding speaker with an ability to explain economics to people well and talk about issues. He makes Ron Paul, Gary Johnson & Rand Paul look like complete morons.

At this point, he very well could be the best pick for the LP nomination for president in 2020, if no one better runs.

Unless we get Justin Amash, Bill Weld, Andrew Napolitano or Mark Cuban willing to jump in, I’ll take the financial entrepreneur worth $70 million who goes on national TV regularly to talk about the future of the economy.

I’ll certainly take it over over a fight between Austin Petersen, Adam Kokesh, and Larry Sharpe – fighting for Russia Today interviews and talking about whose blog discussing the NAP is the best.

I was a big supporter of Peter Schiff 2010 where he ran as a Republican for US Senate.

I donated about $200 to him and felt he was the most important man to elect in 2010. I preferred him over Rand Paul and still would prefer him in the senate over Rand, because he is a principled libertarian and just more knowledgeable than most.

I like how he is just a blunt freaking man. If he did run in 2020, and by some miracle made the debates, he would be the single best libertarian alive today to challenge Donald Trump on the issues. He’d have no shot in hell at winning, but it’d be a debate to remember, where he’d kick ass.

However, I buy stocks. I look at trading every single day. I read a lot on economics. And I’m just going to say, I take Peter Schiff’s advice on the economy as seriously as I take Trump’s kids explaining why they support war with Syria.

My Problem with Peter Schiff

My problem with Peter Schiff is quite simple. He has never not said the economy is about to collapse, and just runs with this notion that he was the lone economist predicting the recession, time and time again, which is a proven lie. So let’s prove why this is false.

First off, he says he predicted the recession of 2008. He says he was the man getting on TV saying there’s a housing bubble that’s going to burst and people laughed at him. He was this lone warrior.

Let me explain; millions of people, globally, called the housing market bubble for years. We can even go back to Jib Jab videos from 2005 talking about how the housing bubble is about to burst. That is nothing unique at all.

There recently was a very popular and shockingly real movie called the Big Short. It talked about a handful of guys (who were in actuality many, many, guys) who expected a recession to happen from the housing bubble and made millions and millions of dollars off of it.

There’s a decent amount of evidence to show that Peter Schiff’s fund didn’t really profit as much, off of the recession, as many other firms which bet against housing.

It also looks like he, and other libertarian minded fund managers, bet against the economy over just housing which short term had gains, but longer term didn’t.

There are interviews with Peter Schiff (since about 2003) where he calls out the housing bubble; we just never get specifics on it. We never get dates. He sees it happening, but we never get details, or numbers. We never really get anything other than this conspiracy-theory like idea that the economy will collapse. It’s handled in such a vague way; it could be 2004, 2008 or 2020 – It’s just not credible.

After 2008 and after his senate run, Schiff became the man to never shut up about how he predicted the recession, but this is a trend.

In the last few years I’ve watched the Schiff podcast saying gold might double again.

He’s said student loans are going to tank the economy. He’s said we would have a collapse before the 2016 election. He says the housing bubble is still about to collapse.

Schiff’s podcast also said credit cards are going to collapse the economy this year, but so far all I’ve seen is…nothing.

There have been no collapses and no accurate predictions for almost seven years. However, scaring a bunch of young libertarians and getting them to buy gold off of his website seems to be the plan.

It’s just bizarre. It’s a clear case of a guy who never claims the positive, but will run the story of the negative and eventually be right. It’s almost like a psychic on the streets of Manhattan, giving very generic and obvious prediction about someone and convincing them they are right, these things will happen. That’s what Schiff does when he speaks about the economy.

Interviewer: “Where’s the economy heading Peter?”

Schiff: “We are absolutely doomed. The debt is going to make it another ‘08. I was right before, so bail now.”

Interviewer: “Wow! When will this happen?”

Schiff: “It’s hard to tell. The government messed up things, but the longer it takes the worse it will be!”

Interviewer: “What can we do to stop it?”

Schiff: “My website sells gold…”

… And that’s all it is.

Peter Schiff has a place in the economic talks happening, but for the love of God, don’t put your paycheck into his podcast suggestions.

[acptulsa]

Schiff has all of the worst characteristics of market losers.

1. He makes fundamental macro predictions that are unknowable then he trades his clients money on them.
2. He is extremely confident in his opinions and then won't change them when he is proven wrong
3. I heard him say he lost money 2008 because the market didn't know what was right. He said gold and these random currencies should have gone up but people were too stupid to understand it.
4. He goes against 1 million percent a century gains that equities holders experience. It never pays to be a long term bear.

It is funny that Warren Buffett has no idea what will happen with interest rates. Yet somehow Peter Schiff is certain of what will happen. Which begs the question, why does Peter have the $#@!tiest money management record in history if he is such a bond genius?

Oh, I agree completely. But at this point, are the fundamentals really everything he says they are?

The trick isn't to decide if the bulls or the bears are right, because they do always both get proven right in the end. The trick is figuring out when each is going to be right.

The volatility has started. Four and a half percent corrections are not the apocalypse, but they bear watching (so to speak). 2008 taught us that volatility is still a sign.

But the big question is not whether Schiff saying it's 'near' means it'll happen any time soon. The big question is, is the next correction going to be as deep and wide as he says it is? That's not a question of whether Schiff should ever be listened to in matters of timing. That's a matter of whether the fundamentals are as he says they are, or if the system can blow us a few more bubbles.

Schiff never believed it could blow a bubble this big, while Zippy thinks it can blow a bubble of infinite size. Well, neither one is credible. So, when do we stop believing the one and realize the other is about to get his turn to be right?

[Zippyjuan]

Never bet against markets. They are up far more often than they are down. And when they do go down, don't bail. They tend to regain their lost ground. If you sell at a drop, you may miss getting back in for the going back up part.

[acptulsa]

Never bet against markets. They are up far more often than they are down. And when they do go down, don't bail. They tend to regain their lost ground. If you sell at a drop, you may miss getting back in for the going back up part.

I bet against markets in 2008. Then bet on them again one fine afternoon in October, and have been since.

Worked really, really well. Just because you say I should allow myself to be fleeced with a gambler's flock doesn't mean I'm not going to try to repeat my performance. Because $#@! you, that's why.

That said, it's true it's dumb to sell after the drop. But while the 'going back up' part has always happened to the market as a whole, it doesn't always happen for the individual stocks that make the market up. Does it?

[Zippyjuan]

I bet against markets in 2008. Then bet on them again one fine afternoon in October, and have been since.

Worked really, really well. Just because you say I should allow myself to be fleeced with a gambler's flock doesn't mean I'm not going to try to repeat my performance. Because $#@! you, that's why.

That said, it's true it's dumb to sell after the drop. But while the 'going back up' part has always happened to the market as a whole, it doesn't always happen for the individual stocks that make the market up. Does it?

Which is why I avoid single stocks- aside some like dividend paying utilities. The dividend gives me money even if the stock price doesn't to much or goes up or down. I tend to use an index fund which buys a group of stocks to mimic a certain index. An index fund doesn't trade its shares to try to improve returns- trading costs money (both in the costs of buying and selling the shares plus the capital gains taxes you will have to pay on them) and lowers your actual returns so on average will do worse than the overall market. Lowering costs tends to increase returns. The average investor IS the market so with costs, the average investor will do at least somewhat worse than the market as a whole.

[DamianTV]

The end is always near. Hyperinflation. $5000 gold. Coming in 2009. 2010. 2011. 2012.....

He did predict the last recession. (because he always predicts a recession). Eventually there will be another one- and he will again claim he is always right.

So, although you are saying there will probably be another stock market crash (which you usually say wont happen), you are saying the current money paradigm is just fine and continue forever? And even go so far as to say this benefits the "little people" in the long term?

I think your propensity for being pro fiat currency is obvious to nearly everyone, and that shows with your big red bar.

[CCTelander]

Peter Schiff has been saying this for a while. He's obviously not the best source to go to for the timing of the thing. But his take on the fundamentals is mighty hard to argue with. I think he knows where this is going.

Of course, he doesn't know when it'll get there. If anyone does, they've the power to arrange it, and they won't be sharing their inside information with us. There's not much for it but to try to come up with a plan that can be implemented quickly and stand ready--or forget the gains everyone else is making, go bearish now, and avoid the Christmas rush.

After October of 1929 there was a recession and a stock market rebound, which lasted until mid-1932. Was that a 'dead cat bounce'? Call it what you will, but it was irrational exuberance on Wall St. while Main St. remained moribund.

We can't say, so if these rebounds, these irrational fits if exuberance, these major league dead cat bounces, last two and a half years, we should have seen the other end of it in the spring of 2011. So this must be something else entirely. There's no reason to believe history would repeat right down to the timetable, and they have gotten much, much better at blowing bubbles than they were eighty-five years ago. Who knows how far a dead cat can bounce with dozens of skilled hit air balloonists trying to keep it from falling back to earth?

I'm with Schiff. We're eventually going to find out.

I agree but whenever I hear Schiff, or many others, say this kind of thing it always reminds me of guys like this:

[devil21]

Collapse is a long, slow process. Or like Hemingway said when asked how he ended up bankrupt. "Gradually at first then suddenly."

Zippy's schtick is pointing to false data, manipulated markets and other banker generated data points while ignoring the obvious signs in the real world, outside of tv, DC and Wall St (but I repeat myself) that the collapse is well underway.

[nikcers]

[AZJoe]

What does that chart look like?

[AZJoe]

The end is always near. Hyperinflation. $5000 gold. Coming in 2009. 2010. 2011. 2012.....

His schtick is fear- the big collapse. He has been saying the next one will be far worse than the Great Recession since that one started.

Zippy's schtick is making things up, and responding without watching the video, and irrationally concluding that because something has not yet occurred, it will never occur despite all underlying fundamentals, logic and mathematics to the contrary.

Notice Zippy does not address Schiff's actual analysis, he simply says the predictions are wrong because they have not come true yet. That's like saying the engineer who points out the bridge is infested with termites and will eventually collapse must certainly be wrong because the bridge has not collapsed yet. Just ignore the termites and keep papering over the bridge and using that bridge. Ignore logic and mathematics. Because it hasn't collapsed yet, means it will go on forever. That's the Zippy analysis.

Schiff does not predict dates, only the direction and inevitable consequences from the fundamentals. He is spot on on the fundamentals. He does express surprise that the phony party charade continues on as long as it does. Eventually, however the inevitable consequences do catch up.

So Zippy thinks Schiff's speech in the OP is wrong? Zippy's contra position is therefore that the economy is just wonderful, and its all thanks to Trump, deficits are great, we can keep exploding the debt in perpetuity with no consequences, everyone just gets richer, shifting high wage jobs to lower wage service sector employment is just wonderful, while corporate earnings are stagnant at best or falling and P/E ratios are sky high but stocks are still a good bargain and everyone should still keep buying into this bubble peak. Leave it to the Zippy.

The debt hasn't gotten any smaller - just grown and at faster and faster rates. Deficit spending continues and grows.
The economy has not gotten better, despite the MSM cons. Yes the stock market has bubble. They attempted to re-inflate the bubble, and they succeeded. The folks at the high end of the wealth spectrum with first access to new money have done well - the bankers, wealthy investors, MIC getting first dibs on the government deficit spending new money. But what of the common people? Expenses have gone up. Wages are stagnant. the unemployment numbers are manipulated and phony. The jobs that have been created are lower wage (many part-time) service sector replacing higher wage manufacturing and others. How is that good economy.
Inflation has exploded, and while consumer prices are certainly increasing, the lag factor in price increases has not yet caught up anywhere near to the inflation yet. Schiff does not say the QE and money creation causes inflation, but rather that the this money expansion is the inflation.

[AZJoe]

Highlights of the OP speech, courtesy of Schiffgold:

“The economy has not improved under Trump. We don’t have a booming economy. … Trump keeps telling us we have a booming economy, but nothing is booming.”

“When Donald Trump was a candidate for president, he said that the unemployment numbers were phony. They were fake. They were a fraud. They were a con. He said the real unemployment rate is 30%, 40%. Now, every time there is an unemployment number that comes out, he’s tweeting about how great it is we have this record low unemployment and we should all give him credit for it.”

“Now, the tax cuts, are they going to grow the economy? No! Because they didn’t cut government spending. See, you don’t get government for nothing. Taxes pay for government. But if you cut taxes and you don’t cut government, how do you pay for that government?”

“I believe the debt and inflation we have to create to finance the tax cuts will be a bigger drag on the economy than the tax cuts are a boost.” …

“there will be growth is in the budget deficits and that kind of is where I see some of the similarity now in the 1980s – 1987 – because these big budget deficits are going to be a big problem.”

“Rather than … continuous economic growth … the economy is going into recession. … we were clearly headed to recession before [Trump] won. And when he won, he created this huge burst of misplaced optimism that probably postponed the onset of that recession by another year or two.”

“The most recent trade deficit hit the highest level I think in six years … The trade deficit is heading much higher and so is the budget deficit. You have these twin deficits. And the last time they were a big problem was 1987.” …

“If the dollar is going down, why would anyone outside the United States want to buy a 10-year Treasury yielding 2.6%?” …

“America’s broke. America has more debt than ever before … The debt has more than doubled since the financial crisis. Why did we have a financial crisis? We had too much debt!”

“What has really been propping up the US economy is cheap money and cheap gas.”
“Here is the self-perpetuating spiral that we’re in. As the deficits go up, now we have to sell more bonds. Well, that puts more downward pressure on bond prices and more upward pressure on interest rates. So, as rising interest rates create bigger deficits, those bigger deficits create rising interest rates.”

[Madison320]

Schiff has all of the worst characteristics of market losers.

1. He makes fundamental macro predictions that are unknowable then he trades his clients money on them.
2. He is extremely confident in his opinions and then won't change them when he is proven wrong
3. I heard him say he lost money 2008 because the market didn't know what was right. He said gold and these random currencies should have gone up but people were too stupid to understand it.
4. He goes against 1 million percent a century gains that equities holders experience. It never pays to be a long term bear.

It is funny that Warren Buffett has no idea what will happen with interest rates. Yet somehow Peter Schiff is certain of what will happen. Which begs the question, why does Peter have the $#@!tiest money management record in history if he is such a bond genius?

What does "Krugminator2" mean?