The story of Dutchsinse (also called Fakesinse in scientific circles)
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Now, as we know how “scientific” his methods are, let’s have a look at his forecasts. Luckily Jamie (a Geoscience student from the U.K) has analyzed the forecast for the past week, issued on July 22.
Results: From 37 (!) issued forecasts, only four were a hit. Five, if we give him a large geographical tolerance. 5/37, this is far away from 95%, guys…
But Dutchy wouldn’t be the Fake King if he wouldn’t try to make it up a bit. So he goes back to one of his most used method: Claiming that forecasted quakes had really happened but were censored by USGS and all other seismological agencies. (He has other, “effective” methods like just claiming a quake was much larger than reported and therefore censored. But this is a different story.)
Can be seen in his video “7/29/2018 -- Global Earthquake Forecast”. He had forecasted a Magnitude 6 earthquake in Northern Iran. Nothing happened there.
In the video he says a quake happened there but it was hidden, as it was the common case in Central Asia. Proof: None.
YOU ARE ALL FAKE!!!!
To be honest: How will one ever be able to censor a large earthquake? Okay, even if there is a global conspiracy present that controls all seismological stations in the world, you may be able to stop earthquake recordings and this earthquakes may not appear in official earthquake list. A very theoretical and unrealistic (so extremely unrealistic scenario that i can’t find a word for it), but, however, possible.
BUT: An earthquake, Magnitude 6, in Northern Iran, would be devastating. Likely resulting in destroyed villages, towns and fatalities. Even if the world conspiracy would be so huge that all the news reporting about this event could be censored: The shocks would have been felt in Tehran, likely also in Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, etc. Websites like earthquake-report.com are using website traffic to detect earthquakes. Works this way: People feel an earthquake and google for earthquake information. Some of them may look at our website, which gives us a pageview. Our systems count these pageviews and if we see an unusual high traffic from one region, in this case Iran, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, we know that an earthquake has occurred. Impossible to miss a quake with this method. Plus: You would have hundreds of Social Media entries describing this quake. How do you want to censor people’s voices?
Just one of his methods to make up his … “science” though.
So, what’s missing to show that Dutchy really deserves the Fake King title?
Let’s have a look at his new predictions for the next week. Because there is another trick Dutchy loves to use: Statistics.
You will agree that
there are regions in the world where moderate quakes (M4 to M5) are rather common. Happening once a week maybe. And Dutchy, smart as he is, builds at least 50% of his forecasts from these quakes, which should statistically occur once a week or so. Usually a guarantee for a relatively high success rate, just by statistical coincidence, although of course not all of these quakes will occur every single week. That he nevertheless failed totally last week makes it even more… amusing.
The rest of his forecasts regards regions, where his followers are interested in. So we can see it as some kind of clickbait, although statistically occurrence is unlikely in most cases.
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