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Thread: U.S. Weeks Away From A Recession According To Latest Loan Data

  1. #1

    U.S. Weeks Away From A Recession According To Latest Loan Data

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-0...test-loan-data

    While many "conventional" indicators of US economic vibrancy and strength have lost their informational and predictive value over the past decade (GDP fluctuates erratically especially in Q1, employment is the lowest this century yet real wage growth is non-existent, inflation remains under the Fed's target despite its $4.5 trillion balance sheet and so on), one indicator has remained a stubbornly fail-safe marker of economic contraction: since the 1960, every time Commercial & Industrial loan balances have declined (or simply stopped growing), whether due to tighter loan supply or declining demand, a recession was already either in progress or would start soon.

    This can be seen on both the linked chart, and the one zoomed in below, which shows the uncanny correlation between loan growth and economic recession.



    And while we have repeatedly documented the sharp decline in US Commercial and Industrial loan growth over the past few months (most recently in "We Now Know "Who Hit The Brakes" As Loan Creation Crashes To Six Year Low") as US loans have failed to post any material increase in over 30 consecutive weeks, suddenly the US finds itself on the verge of an ominous inflection point.

    After growing at a 7% Y/Y pace at the start of the year, which declined to 3% at the end of March and 2.6% at the end of April, the latest bank loan update from the Fed showed that the annual rate of increase in C&A loans is now down to just 1.6%, - the lowest since 2011 - after slowing to 2.3% and 1.8% in the previous two weeks.



    Should the current rate of loan growth deceleration persist - and there is nothing to suggest otherwise - the US will post its first negative loan growth, or rather loan contraction since the financial crisis, in roughly 4 to 6 weeks.

    ...
    Lets see if the naysayers are right this time. I personally dont think we have recovered from the last crash. Sure, things got better for Wall Street, but Main Street has only gone downhill and has NOT gone back up.
    1776 > 1984

    The FAILURE of the United States Government to operate and maintain an
    Honest Money System , which frees the ordinary man from the clutches of the money manipulators, is the single largest contributing factor to the World's current Economic Crisis.

    The Elimination of Privacy is the Architecture of Genocide

    Belief, Money, and Violence are the three ways all people are controlled

    Quote Originally Posted by Zippyjuan View Post
    Our central bank is not privately owned.



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  3. #2
    All bubbles must end.

  4. #3
    Quote Originally Posted by timosman View Post
    All bubbles must end.
    Not according to Zippy or the rest of the asshat clowns that stand to profit from bubbles. Bubbles can continue inflating forever with zero consequence.
    1776 > 1984

    The FAILURE of the United States Government to operate and maintain an
    Honest Money System , which frees the ordinary man from the clutches of the money manipulators, is the single largest contributing factor to the World's current Economic Crisis.

    The Elimination of Privacy is the Architecture of Genocide

    Belief, Money, and Violence are the three ways all people are controlled

    Quote Originally Posted by Zippyjuan View Post
    Our central bank is not privately owned.

  5. #4
    From Sept 16, 2016
    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-09-16/88-probability-we-just-entered-recession

    "88% Probability We Just Entered Recession"

    Still waiting for that recession. It has been three quarters of positive growth.

    From Jan 21, 2016
    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-0...signs-2008-now
    Recession Signs - 2008 & Now

    Zero Hedge has been posting bearish articles constantly since 2008.

    The yield curve is the gold standard of recession forecasting. Still no recession on the horizon. http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/yieldcurve.php Someday there will be a recession and then what? Zombie Apocalypse? Nothing will change.

  6. #5
    We have entered a new period unlike all others since the last crash . Constant , stagnant , most minimal growth . This will continue until a sudden decline I think .
    Do something Danke

  7. #6

    https://twitter.com/RealPressSecBot/...87871837216769
    “I don’t think that there will be any curtailing of Donald Trump as president,” he said. "He controls the media, he controls the sentiment [and] he controls everybody. He’s the one who will resort to executive orders more so than [President] Obama ever used them." - Ron Paul

  8. #7
    Quote Originally Posted by oyarde View Post
    We have entered a new period unlike all others since the last crash . Constant , stagnant , most minimal growth . This will continue until a sudden decline I think .
    dunno, I'm up 200% this year over this time last year, its fixing to be my best year since 2006. /me knocks on a big hunk of wood.

  9. #8
    Quote Originally Posted by specsaregood View Post
    dunno, I'm up 200% this year over this time last year, its fixing to be my best year since 2006. /me knocks on a big hunk of wood.
    Yes , personally I made some money since the crash . I am happy for your good fortune . Overall though the economic growth and workforce participation is poor for a country with so much debt .
    Do something Danke



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  11. #9
    Quote Originally Posted by Krugminator2 View Post
    Zero Hedge has been posting bearish articles constantly since 2008.
    Nonetheless, this is a pretty reliable indicator.

  12. #10
    Quote Originally Posted by r3volution 3.0 View Post
    Nonetheless, this is a pretty reliable indicator.
    Is it? Maybe. Probably not. Zero Hedge has a way of finding untested patterns in randomness that turn out to be meaningless.

    I always see people overlaying charts on other charts to justify their views. Here are some stock charts (some from ZH) that do just that and turned out to be noise. http://fat-pitch.blogspot.com/2017/0...like-1987.html

  13. #11
    Quote Originally Posted by oyarde View Post
    Yes , personally I made some money since the crash . I am happy for your good fortune . Overall though the economic growth and workforce participation is poor for a country with so much debt .
    luckily I profit when people want to invest a little bit of money in order to save money or make more money. this years its been about a 50/50 of both.

  14. #12
    Quote Originally Posted by Krugminator2 View Post
    Is it? Maybe. Probably not. Zero Hedge has a way of finding untested patterns in randomness that turn out to be meaningless.

    I always see people overlaying charts on other charts to justify their views. Here are some stock charts (some from ZH) that do just that and turned out to be noise. http://fat-pitch.blogspot.com/2017/0...like-1987.html
    Agreed about Zerohedge, but in this case they're playing it straight.

    From the Fed itself:

    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BUSLOANS



    Doesn't look like a coincidental correlation to me (and it makes sense that it wouldn't be, considering what these data represent).

  15. #13
    Thank you Trump.
    Pfizer Macht Frei!

    Openly Straight Man, Danke, Awarded Top Rated Influencer. Community Standards Enforcer.


    Quiz: Test Your "Income" Tax IQ!

    Short Income Tax Video

    The Income Tax Is An Excise, And Excise Taxes Are Privilege Taxes

    The Federalist Papers, No. 15:

    Except as to the rule of appointment, the United States have an indefinite discretion to make requisitions for men and money; but they have no authority to raise either by regulations extending to the individual citizens of America.

  16. #14
    Quote Originally Posted by r3volution 3.0 View Post

    Doesn't look like a coincidental correlation to me (and it makes sense that it wouldn't be, considering what these data represent).
    It actually looks like the perfect fooled by randomness chart to me.

    For example, the chart flattens in 1998 and 1999 and there was no recession for another 2 years. The Great Recession started in 2007 and ended in 2009. That chart show loans peaking in Nov of 2008 before declining. If you go farther back the chart flattens in Nov of 1982. The recession started in July of 1981 ended in Nov of 1982.
    Last edited by Krugminator2; 06-11-2017 at 11:16 PM.

  17. #15
    Quote Originally Posted by r3volution 3.0 View Post
    Agreed about Zerohedge, but in this case they're playing it straight.

    From the Fed itself:

    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BUSLOANS



    Doesn't look like a coincidental correlation to me (and it makes sense that it wouldn't be, considering what these data represent).
    Fed chart is loans outstanding. Looking at the chart it was the recession which started first, then the drop in loans outstanding occurred- effect, not cause. Loans outstanding are still rising according to the Zerohedge chart (though growing more slowly).

  18. #16
    Quote Originally Posted by Zippyjuan View Post
    Fed chart is loans outstanding. Looking at the chart it was the recession which started first, then the drop in loans outstanding occurred- effect, not cause. Loans outstanding are still rising according to the Zerohedge chart (though growing more slowly).
    Still rising but growing more slowly? Hmmmmm.... That's a good sign?



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  20. #17
    If anything like 2007/2008, when we were already well into recession before the numbers started being reported accurately, we are already well into another one.

    Dr. Paul was calling it during debates back then and sure enough he was right. Paraphrase: "Main Street is already in recession! Wall Street and Washington just don't realize it yet."
    "Let it not be said that we did nothing."-Ron Paul

    "We have set them on the hobby-horse of an idea about the absorption of individuality by the symbolic unit of COLLECTIVISM. They have never yet and they never will have the sense to reflect that this hobby-horse is a manifest violation of the most important law of nature, which has established from the very creation of the world one unit unlike another and precisely for the purpose of instituting individuality."- A Quote From Some Old Book

  21. #18
    Quote Originally Posted by devil21 View Post
    If anything like 2007/2008, when we were already well into recession before the numbers started being reported accurately, we are already well into another one.

    Dr. Paul was calling it during debates back then and sure enough he was right. Paraphrase: "Main Street is already in recession! Wall Street and Washington just don't realize it yet."
    Ron Paul has called 22 of the last two recessions...

  22. #19
    Whenever I see financial chart porn, I just shrug my shoulders. It's all meh.
    There are only two things we should fight for. One is the defense of our homes and the other is the Bill of Rights. War for any other reason is simply a racket.
    -Major General Smedley Butler, USMC,
    Two-Time Congressional Medal of Honor Winner
    Author of, War is a Racket!

    It is not that I am mad, it is only that my head is different from yours.
    - Diogenes of Sinope

  23. #20
    Quote Originally Posted by Zippyjuan View Post
    Fed chart is loans outstanding. Looking at the chart it was the recession which started first, then the drop in loans outstanding occurred- effect, not cause. Loans outstanding are still rising according to the Zerohedge chart (though growing more slowly).
    Unless my eyes deceive me, the chart shows loans dropping in the midst of the last recession, and right at the start of the two previous. In any event, whether the drop in loans is cause or effect is beside the point; it's the association which matters. Really, it's probably both cause and effect to some degree, and it's a bit different each time. I'll wager that if you looked at other recession-correlated data (e.g. unemployment or consumer spending) you'd find it sometimes a leading and sometimes a trailing indicator. Every recession is different.

  24. #21
    To be honest I think that the recession is something that has been on the minds of a lot of people in the finance industry, what with the big issues in the property markets around the world. It's just a matter of time when it hits and a lot of people are al ready starting to squirrel some assets away and play it safe when it comes to investing. Now would really be a good time to start swapping out for gold huh!

  25. #22
    Quote Originally Posted by Krugminator2 View Post
    ...

    Zero Hedge has been posting bearish articles constantly since 2008.

    ...
    And the economy for MAIN Street has been bearish constantly since 2008.
    1776 > 1984

    The FAILURE of the United States Government to operate and maintain an
    Honest Money System , which frees the ordinary man from the clutches of the money manipulators, is the single largest contributing factor to the World's current Economic Crisis.

    The Elimination of Privacy is the Architecture of Genocide

    Belief, Money, and Violence are the three ways all people are controlled

    Quote Originally Posted by Zippyjuan View Post
    Our central bank is not privately owned.

  26. #23
    Fed just announced another .25 rate hike.

    (Though I've postulated before that the official FOMC announcements like today are actually announcements of policies they enacted months earlier.)
    "Let it not be said that we did nothing."-Ron Paul

    "We have set them on the hobby-horse of an idea about the absorption of individuality by the symbolic unit of COLLECTIVISM. They have never yet and they never will have the sense to reflect that this hobby-horse is a manifest violation of the most important law of nature, which has established from the very creation of the world one unit unlike another and precisely for the purpose of instituting individuality."- A Quote From Some Old Book

  27. #24
    Quote Originally Posted by devil21 View Post
    Fed just announced another .25 rate hike.

    (Though I've postulated before that the official FOMC announcements like today are actually announcements of policies they enacted months earlier.)
    Links to support the theory?



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  29. #25
    Quote Originally Posted by Zippyjuan View Post
    Links to support the theory?
    We've already covered this in other threads Zip. Feel free to search for YOUR OWN PREVIOUS POSTS ON THE TOPIC.
    "Let it not be said that we did nothing."-Ron Paul

    "We have set them on the hobby-horse of an idea about the absorption of individuality by the symbolic unit of COLLECTIVISM. They have never yet and they never will have the sense to reflect that this hobby-horse is a manifest violation of the most important law of nature, which has established from the very creation of the world one unit unlike another and precisely for the purpose of instituting individuality."- A Quote From Some Old Book

  30. #26
    I'm tired of bubbles, can someone please make it stop and put us back on the gs?

    I think it contributes to the overall anxiety of the nation.
    “…I believe that at this point in history, the greatest danger to our freedom and way of life comes from the reasonable fear of omniscient State powers kept in check by nothing more than policy documents.”



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