4.5% of Black Males will commit murder in their lifetime as of 2021

[Anti Federalist]

A massive substack file of crime data, exhaustively sorted and analyzed, has come to that conclusion.

I've just started to work my way through it, feel free to do the same, post errors if you see them.

I usually get some squawking every time I post something like this, but I have no choice.

The Marxists and their propaganda machine have turned this entire concept upside down to justify a genocide against me.

I have no way to refute their propaganda other than by posting the facts.

And when it comes to murder, violence and mayhem, whites are not the threat.

Black males, that are roughly six percent of the overall population are responsible for over 50 percent of all US homicides.

You are many times more likely as a white to have a violent crime committed against you by a black, than the other way around.

The vast majority of "mass shootings", (that is defined as four or more people shot, not including the shooter, regardless of whether death or only injury was the outcome) are committed by blacks.

When adjusted to equalize for "frequency of police encounters", meaning that, when you compare the outcome of 1000 contacts with police by whites and 1000 contacts with police by blacks, for any reason, whites are 2.7 times more likely to suffer abuse or brutality or getting shot at the hands of cops than blacks.



4.5%, the Demographics of American Murder and USA Violent Crime Stats

https://datahazard.substack.com/p/american-murder

US Data on Murderers by Race, Sex and Age in the 2020s. From FBI UCR 2021 (NIBRS), CDC WONDER 2022 NVSS (National Vital Statistics System). Updated Mar 15, 2023

datahazard
Mar 8 2023

It’s impossible to understand the current moment in history without understanding the ongoing spike in violence across America.

And — due to local city politics & broken incentives in documenting crime — the only legitimate national measure of violence is found in Murder data. It’s just not that easy to hide a body.

You’ve surely heard a lot about crime since May 25, 2020. But it can all be summarized with just one number.

This is a comprehensive review on the demographics of murderers and their victims; published here with the goal of educating the public on an underreported topic, and with the hope of improving criminal justice policy in some small way.

4.5%
The number that summarizes the past 2.5 years of post-BLM life in America. But why?

4.5% of Black Males will commit murder in their lifetime as of 2021, if we choose to do nothing about the ongoing epidemic of violence.

6.5% of Black Males (15-74) commit murder over the past 60 years, assuming a 1:1 Murderer:Victim ratio, based on 1,084,990 actual murder victims (1968-2021).

Note: section added March 13

4.4%—7.2% of yearly Black Male deaths are homicides every year, with no exceptions, since at least 1968. Over 90% of these are Black Male-on-Black Male.

4.35% of Black Males (15-74) were murdered over the past 60 years, based on the 410,000 actual Black Male (15-74) murder victims from 1968-2021.

These are the low-end of what the rates could be in reality, given the large number of “unknowns” in the FBI data and the large number of “indeterminate” violent deaths coded by the CDC.

Whatabout repeat offenders, you ask? The most extreme assumptions can bring the 4.5% down to as low as 3.3%. I ask: does that change our conclusions? Do we continue decarceration on the off-chance that only 3.3% will commit murder?

4.5% of Black Males will commit murder in their lifetime as of 2021
The table below includes the 2021 murder rates of demographic groups split across age, sex, and race as derived from the FBI NIBRS estimation dataset.

Note: a Victim can have multiple Murderers and a Murderer can have multiple Victims. These both are a minority of murder offenses, and are in the same order of magnitude. Because of this, the actual ratio of Victims:Murderers is near 1:1.



(much much more at link...working my way through it)

[Anti Federalist]

For some White areas, 2021 has even seen a decrease in Murder Victimization relative to 2020



New Hampshire and Maine.

Both 95 percent or more, older whites

[RJB]

According to that chart, black females are more prone to murder than the evil white male.

[TheCount]

exhaustively sorted and analyzed

...

assuming a 1:1 Murderer:Victim ratio

[tod evans]

Be interesting to see those numbers re-run only in cities with a population over 200,000. (Include burbs of metroplexes)

Something tells me they'd treble.

[Anti Federalist]

Be interesting to see those numbers re-run only in cities with a population over 200,000. (Include burbs of metroplexes)

Something tells me they'd treble.

That's where this came from:

[Anti Federalist]

...

assuming a 1:1 Murderer:Victim ratio

...

Note: a Victim can have multiple Murderers and a Murderer can have multiple Victims. These both are a minority of murder offenses, and are in the same order of magnitude. Because of this, the actual ratio of Victims:Murderers is near 1:1.

[Anti Federalist]

According to that chart, black females are more prone to murder than the evil white male.

That's what the research is showing.

Young murderers are overwhelmingly Black Males. Older murderers get progressively more White and Female. Victims follow a more non-linear path.

[TheCount]

...

Source: His ass


Do you simultaneously believe that blacks commit more mass murders than whites and also black murderers average one victim?

[acptulsa]

Source: His ass


Do you simultaneously believe that blacks commit more mass murders than whites and also black murderers average one victim?

Do you deny that multiple people can kill one victim?

Are you one of those people who think Emmett Till can have more than one murderer, but white victims can't?

[GlennwaldSnowdenAssanged]

Higher than the risk of COVID!

[Anti Federalist]

Source: His ass


Do you simultaneously believe that blacks commit more mass murders than whites and also black murderers average one victim?

Yes, because mass shootings are statistically a tiny fraction of all homicides.

For example, in 2016, 63 people were killed in "mass shootings".

17250 were killed in total homicides of all types in 2016.

The sources cited for this research are:

The CDC WONDER 2021 dataset can be found at:
https://wonder.cdc.gov/mcd.html

The FBI NIBRS 2021 Estimation dataset can be found at: https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/LATEST/weba...ages/downloads

[GlennwaldSnowdenAssanged]

Sounds like a Blackdemic of epic proportions.
Have they developed a shot that will cure it yet?

[tod evans]

That's where this came from:

Wall 'em off.

[Voluntarist]

assuming a 1:1 Murderer:Victim ratio

Note: a Victim can have multiple Murderers and a Murderer can have multiple Victims. These both are a minority of murder offenses, and are in the same order of magnitude. Because of this, the actual ratio of Victims:Murderers is near 1:1.

That might be the case, but there's no analysis provided for it. Figures from 2011 show single victim/multiple offenders at 12.2%, multiple victims/single offender at 6.5% and multiple victims/multiple offenders at 1.6% ... so it's not an insignificant portion of the total, nor do they provide the actual numbers of victims and offenders.

Do you deny that multiple people can kill one victim?

The link I provided above is the first data I could find for single/multiple offenders and single/multiple victims (and it's from 2011). 48.4% are confirmed to be single offender/single victim. My big takeway though is the 28.5% of homicides that are "Single victim/unknown offender(s)" coupled with the 2.8% that are "Multiple victims/unknown offender(s)"; that's a total of close to a third, and that percentage appears to be growing (2020 saw a record low of only 54.4 percent of the country’s homicide cases cleared). I'm assuming that the OP stats are for resolved/convicted homicides - so the upwards of 45.6% of homicides that are unresolved could really skew the results dramatically in one direction or the other.

Edited to add:
The https://datahazard.substack.com/p/american-murder analysis is a model rather than a compilation of actual tallied data. It relies upon a lot of assumptions, and upwards of 45.6% of the data for any year is missing (for which they don't even provide proxy data for - like they do with the climate models). It'd be easy (though tedious) to get actual tallied data, but they chose the modeling route instead. To provide a warm fuzzy for the model, they ought to apply it to a number of small subsets of the total data (like a few counties) and then compare the modeling results to the actual tallied data for those counties. If they don't match, then the model is wrong.

[Anti Federalist]

That might be the case, but there's no analysis provided for it. Figures from 2011 show single victim/multiple offenders at 12.2%, multiple victims/single offender at 6.5% and multiple victims/multiple offenders at 1.6% ... so it's not an insignificant portion of the total, nor do they provide the actual numbers of victims and offenders.





The link I provided above is the first data I could find for single/multiple offenders and single/multiple victims (and it's from 2011). 48.4% are confirmed to be single offender/single victim. My big takeway though is the 28.5% of homicides that are "Single victim/unknown offender(s)" coupled with the 2.8% that are "Multiple victims/unknown offender(s)"; that's a total of close to a third, and that percentage appears to be growing (2020 saw a record low of only 54.4 percent of the country’s homicide cases cleared). I'm assuming that the OP stats are for resolved/convicted homicides - so the upwards of 45.6% of homicides that are unresolved could really skew the results dramatically in one direction or the other.

Edited to add:
The https://datahazard.substack.com/p/american-murder analysis is a model rather than a compilation of actual tallied data. It relies upon a lot of assumptions, and upwards of 45.6% of the data for any year is missing (for which they don't even provide proxy data for - like they do with the climate models). It'd be easy (though tedious) to get actual tallied data, but they chose the modeling route instead. To provide a warm fuzzy for the model, they ought to apply it to a number of small subsets of the total data (like a few counties) and then compare the modeling results to the actual tallied data for those counties. If they don't match, then the model is wrong.

Yes that will be tedious because I think what you would have to do is make a model to plug in the data from areas where the unsolved rate is high and then project the same racial ratio of of solved vs unsolved to all cases. My little town in NH has one unsolved murder, a middle aged white woman who was stabbed to death back in 2007. The prime suspect is her white boyfriend/live in lover who has disappeared off the face of the earth.

I would suspect the same of the thousands of unsolved homicides on the south side of Chicago, that they reflect the same trends of solved murders.

Regardless, I think that these numbers are consistent enough to once again state, without any doubt whatsoever, that if your concern is violence, murder and sudden death, contrary to what the president and the government and the media organs say, white people are not your concern.

[CaptUSA]

Culture has more to do with these numbers than race. It's just that more black people are living in that culture. If you looked at white people in that same culture, the numbers would be nearly identical.

When you view these things through the lens of race, you get a very distorted picture. The murderers in these statistics have other things in common more than race. Unfortunately, just like the corporate press does, it's the easiest thing to categorize.

Instead of race, try looking at these statistics as people in fatherless homes, people addicted to drugs, people from families on the government dole, people in densely-packed cities, people from failing schools, people who dropped out of school, people who are unemployed....

[69360]

Culture has more to do with these numbers than race. It's just that more black people are living in that culture. If you looked at white people in that same culture, the numbers would be nearly identical.

When you view these things through the lens of race, you get a very distorted picture. The murderers in these statistics have other things in common more than race. Unfortunately, just like the corporate press does, it's the easiest thing to categorize.

Instead of race, try looking at these statistics as people in fatherless homes, people addicted to drugs, people from families on the government dole, people in densely-packed cities, people from failing schools, people who dropped out of school, people who are unemployed....

It's by choice. There is nothing in this country that prevents a hard working responsible young black man from living in a nice rural or suburban home, nothing.

I want to belive the 4.5 is wrong, but it probably isn't.

[CaptUSA]

It's by choice. There is nothing in this country that prevents a hard working responsible young black man from living in a nice rural or suburban home, nothing.

I want to belive the 4.5 is wrong, but it probably isn't.

Well, yes. But culture influences choices. There will always be people in every culture who make choices outside of their cultural norms, but those people are the exceptions - not the rule.

[Anti Federalist]

Culture has more to do with these numbers than race. It's just that more black people are living in that culture. If you looked at white people in that same culture, the numbers would be nearly identical.

When you view these things through the lens of race, you get a very distorted picture. The murderers in these statistics have other things in common more than race. Unfortunately, just like the corporate press does, it's the easiest thing to categorize.

Instead of race, try looking at these statistics as people in fatherless homes, people addicted to drugs, people from families on the government dole, people in densely-packed cities, people from failing schools, people who dropped out of school, people who are unemployed....

You know, I'm really past trying to establish what the "root causes" are.

For every solid theory, you can come up with some pretty damning facts to contradict it.

For instance, in the example you gave, then what would explain the countless nations with large black populations that have even higher homicide rates than ours?

But again, I'm just throwing that out there as an example, I honestly do not have the will to go through that whole debate again.

I am only presenting these facts as a counter to the ceaseless narrative that all societal violence comes from white men.

[vita3]

Did the “blacks” invent Covid & its vaccines?

Asking 4 a friend

[Anti Federalist]

Did the “blacks” invent Covid & its vaccines?

Asking 4 a friend

I know at least one who did.



But you are quite right in pointing out that whites or in the case of Covid, Chinese, not blacks released a plague that killed millions.

But again, my discussion is about criminal homicide.

[CaptUSA]

You know, I'm really past trying to establish what the "root causes" are.

For every solid theory, you can come up with some pretty damning facts to contradict it.

For instance, in the example you gave, then what would explain the countless nations with large black populations that have even higher homicide rates than ours?

But again, I'm just throwing that out there as an example, I honestly do not have the will to go through that whole debate again.

I am only presenting these facts as a counter to the ceaseless narrative that all societal violence comes from white men.

I hear ya. It's just that I grew up in a poor, urban, majority black neighborhood and for a while, I rode the city bus to a mixed-race private school. The culture in my neighborhood couldn't have been more different than the culture the black kids in my school grew up in. The black kids in my school were the kind that would get all the advantages of affirmative action when they didn't even need it, while the kids in my neighborhood were the victims of those same policies.

Mine was the only white family in my development, but I knew other white kids growing up in the same circumstances, minus the exposure to other cultures. And they succumbed to the same fate. It really can't be overstated how much one's culture will impact their choices. Like I said, there will always be exceptions (I am proof of that) but that's what we are - exceptions.

In addition to that cross-cultural upbringing in the city, I was also exposed to my dad's side of the family in rural Pennsylvania. 100% white, but the drug use and crime was nearly as bad - it just presented differently. Thomas Sowell has written tons of books on how culture influences behavior and it does so all over the world.

[Anti Federalist]

I hear ya. It's just that I grew up in a poor, urban, majority black neighborhood and for a while, I rode the city bus to a mixed-race private school. The culture in my neighborhood couldn't have been more different than the culture the black kids in my school grew up in. The black kids in my school were the kind that would get all the advantages of affirmative action when they didn't even need it, while the kids in my neighborhood were the victims of those same policies.

Mine was the only white family in my development, but I knew other white kids growing up in the same circumstances, minus the exposure to other cultures. And they succumbed to the same fate. It really can't be overstated how much one's culture will impact their choices. Like I said, there will always be exceptions (I am proof of that) but that's what we are - exceptions.

In addition to that cross-cultural upbringing in the city, I was also exposed to my dad's side of the family in rural Pennsylvania. 100% white, but the drug use and crime was nearly as bad - it just presented differently. Thomas Sowell has written tons of books on how culture influences behavior and it does so all over the world.

Without a doubt and I don't disagree.

I found myself in a similar situation, forced by government mandate to attend a ghetto school so bad, it was longer accredited by the state.

But again, I'm presenting this info not as a justification or to open that nature vs nurture debate all over again.

I happen to think it is combination of both, myself, but that's neither here nor there to my purpose.

Every branch of government from the White House on down has been ordered to enact "equity" policies at every level.

The government and media organs and indoctrination centers (gov. schools and universities) screech from the rooftops every single day that white people, white culture and white virtues are criminally dangerous, violent, oppressive and must be eradicated, stamped out and destroyed.

When it comes to violent homicide, the exact opposite is true, and it is "underground" and doubleplusungood research like this that is the only way I can prove that.

[69360]

They make a choice to be a part of that culture. Generational poverty is a myth.

[tebowlives]

Culture has more to do with these numbers than race. It's just that more black people are living in that culture. If you looked at white people in that same culture, the numbers would be nearly identical.

When you view these things through the lens of race, you get a very distorted picture. The murderers in these statistics have other things in common more than race. Unfortunately, just like the corporate press does, it's the easiest thing to categorize.

Instead of race, try looking at these statistics as people in fatherless homes, people addicted to drugs, people from families on the government dole, people in densely-packed cities, people from failing schools, people who dropped out of school, people who are unemployed....

Single parenthood

[Mach]

Single parenthood

White single parent homes has risen for many decades, but the murder rate has not kept up.

[Anti-Neocon]

A few thoughts:

- The murder numbers per population, on a ratio basis (see next point), actually surprised me. I was expecting to see some sort of gross miscalculation here which I sadly have come to expect from people with agendas (see: repetitive attempts to draw causality to "BLM").
- Not sure if it matters if repeat offenders or not, the issue remains the same. Who cares if 1000 people kill 5 people each or 5000 people kill 1 person each? The result is equally bad and is equally dangerous and toxic to living in certain areas in particular. As such, I don't like the way the calculations are presented. It's not a very useful statistic, and relies on an inference that could easily be picked apart (see @TheCount 's point)
- Still, the vast majority of black people are NOT the problem. It is especially unfair to them to be grouped in with others who are due to their skin color, especially when they are also likely to be victimized more due to living in black areas. Really just stinks to be them.
- I think @CaptUSA brings up a lot of good points in that a lot of this is just cyclical, being born into bad environments and never seeing an alternative reality outside of them. How much? Not sure.

[tebowlives]

White single parent homes has risen for many decades, but the murder rate has not kept up.

But that's where the crime comes from. Males 16-25 raised in a single parent environment. An older study from 1992, 85% of all youths in Texas prisons came from a single parent household. It's about guidance.

[tebowlives]

A few thoughts:

- The murder numbers per population, on a ratio basis (see next point), actually surprised me. I was expecting to see some sort of gross miscalculation here which I sadly have come to expect from people with agendas (see: repetitive attempts to draw causality to "BLM").
- Not sure if it matters if repeat offenders or not, the issue remains the same. Who cares if 1000 people kill 5 people each or 5000 people kill 1 person each? The result is equally bad and is equally dangerous and toxic to living in certain areas in particular. As such, I don't like the way the calculations are presented. It's not a very useful statistic, and relies on an inference that could easily be picked apart (see @TheCount 's point)
- Still, the vast majority of black people are NOT the problem. It is especially unfair to them to be grouped in with others who are due to their skin color, especially when they are also likely to be victimized more due to living in black areas. Really just stinks to be them.
- I think @CaptUSA brings up a lot of good points in that a lot of this is just cyclical, being born into bad environments and never seeing an alternative reality outside of them. How much? Not sure.

"Even in high-crime inner-city neighborhoods, well over 90 percent of children from safe, stable homes do not become delinquents. By contrast only 10 percent of children from unsafe, unstable homes in these neighborhoods avoid crime." Stable= 2 parents, 1 working fulltime, no addiction.