View Poll Results: How Much Will Trump Grow The Debt By The End Of His First Term?

Voters
9. You may not vote on this poll
  • $955 billion (the deficit drops 75% going foreward)

    0 0%
  • $1.365 trillion (the deficit drops 50%)

    0 0%
  • $2.184 trillion (the deficit remains the same)

    2 22.22%
  • $3.822 trillion (the deficit doubles)

    4 44.44%
  • $5.460 trillion (the deficit triples)

    3 33.33%
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Thread: How Much Will Trump Grow The Debt By The End Of His First Term?

  1. #1

    How Much Will Trump Grow The Debt By The End Of His First Term?

    On January 20, 2017, the US national stood at $19.947 trillion; today it stands at $20.493 trillion.

    So, the debt grew by $546 billion in Trump's first year.

    With spending increases on the horizon (e.g. for roadz and "defense"), and tax cuts already passed, the deficit will be increasing.

    Poll Question: How much will Trump grow the debt by the end of his first term (January 19, 2021)?

    *we will count debt as having been added by Trump unless the bill in question was passed over his veto
    Last edited by r3volution 3.0; 01-22-2018 at 03:15 PM.



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  3. #2
    End of first term ? Tough to guess , but I will go with between 1.2 and 2.2 .

  4. #3
    First option should be $955 billion.
    "He's talkin' to his gut like it's a person!!" -me
    "dumpster diving isn't professional." - angelatc
    "You don't need a medical degree to spot obvious bullshit, that's actually a separate skill." -Scott Adams
    "When you are divided, and angry, and controlled, you target those 'different' from you, not those responsible [controllers]" -Q

    "Each of us must choose which course of action we should take: education, conventional political action, or even peaceful civil disobedience to bring about necessary changes. But let it not be said that we did nothing." - Ron Paul

    "Paul said "the wave of the future" is a coalition of anti-authoritarian progressive Democrats and libertarian Republicans in Congress opposed to domestic surveillance, opposed to starting new wars and in favor of ending the so-called War on Drugs."

  5. #4
    Quote Originally Posted by dannno View Post
    First option should be $955 billion.
    fixed

    Anyway, I'm going with $3.822 trillion (the deficit doubles).

    That's assuming there's no new war or recession.

  6. #5
    I don't know and I can't do anything about it so it isn't worth worrying about.
    I already want him to have a primary challenge in 2020 and Hitlery would have been worse.
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankind…it’s people I can’t stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment

  7. #6
    Hard to say... the infrastructure spending is the magic question mark... he talked a lot about it during the campaign but not a peep since. Going to say definitely $3T or more though.
    Quote Originally Posted by Swordsmyth View Post
    Pinochet is the model
    Quote Originally Posted by Swordsmyth View Post
    Liberty preserving authoritarianism.
    Quote Originally Posted by Swordsmyth View Post
    Enforced internal open borders was one of the worst elements of the Constitution.

  8. #7

  9. #8
    Quote Originally Posted by Swordsmyth View Post
    I already want him to have a primary challenge in 2020 and Hitlery would have been worse.
    Unfortunately anybody but Rand as a primary challenger is probably going to be worse than Trump.
    "He's talkin' to his gut like it's a person!!" -me
    "dumpster diving isn't professional." - angelatc
    "You don't need a medical degree to spot obvious bullshit, that's actually a separate skill." -Scott Adams
    "When you are divided, and angry, and controlled, you target those 'different' from you, not those responsible [controllers]" -Q

    "Each of us must choose which course of action we should take: education, conventional political action, or even peaceful civil disobedience to bring about necessary changes. But let it not be said that we did nothing." - Ron Paul

    "Paul said "the wave of the future" is a coalition of anti-authoritarian progressive Democrats and libertarian Republicans in Congress opposed to domestic surveillance, opposed to starting new wars and in favor of ending the so-called War on Drugs."



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  11. #9
    Quote Originally Posted by dannno View Post
    Unfortunately anybody but Rand as a primary challenger is probably going to be worse than Trump.
    There are other good options but it is true we won't know if we are going to have a better option than DJTvsg until people start their campaigns.
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankind…it’s people I can’t stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment

  12. #10
    Here is an alternative viewpoint that applies equally to Austrians and leftists. I hear all this screeching from Austrians who think interest rates are too low. Austrians think the Fed is out of control holding rates down artificially and leftists think we need to raise interest raise so that the rates can be lowered in the next recession.

    Interest rates are primarily determined by inflation. If the Fed raises rates too much that is going to throw the economy into recession which would then force rates back down because inflation would drop. If you want interest rates to go up, the best way to do that is run a deficit. Inflationary fiscal policy through a tax cut would allow the Fed to offset that with rate hikes, which would stick because the economy wouldn't go into recession.
    Last edited by Krugminator2; 01-22-2018 at 03:55 PM.

  13. #11
    Quote Originally Posted by Krugminator2 View Post
    Here is an alternative viewpoint that applies equally to Austrians and leftists. I hear all this screeching from Austrians who think interest rates are too low. Austrians think the Fed is out of control holding rates down artificially and leftists think we need to raise interest raise so that the rates can be lowered in the next recession.

    Interest rates are primarily determined by inflation. If the Fed raises rates too much that is going to throw the economy into recession which would then force rates back down because inflation would drop. If you want interest rates to go up, the best way to do that is run a deficit. Inflationary fiscal policy through a tax cut would allow the Fed to offset that with rate hikes, which would stick because the economy wouldn't go into recession.
    Neg worthy.
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankind…it’s people I can’t stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment

  14. #12
    Trump? I always thought it was the legislative branch that passed bills...
    Pfizer Macht Frei!

    Openly Straight Man, Danke, Awarded Top Rated Influencer. Community Standards Enforcer.


    Quiz: Test Your "Income" Tax IQ!

    Short Income Tax Video

    The Income Tax Is An Excise, And Excise Taxes Are Privilege Taxes

    The Federalist Papers, No. 15:

    Except as to the rule of appointment, the United States have an indefinite discretion to make requisitions for men and money; but they have no authority to raise either by regulations extending to the individual citizens of America.

  15. #13
    Quote Originally Posted by Swordsmyth View Post
    Neg worthy.

    You didn't actually refute it though.

  16. #14
    Quote Originally Posted by Krugminator2 View Post
    You didn't actually refute it though.
    It's so ridiculous that it doesn't deserve a response.
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankind…it’s people I can’t stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment

  17. #15
    Quote Originally Posted by Danke View Post
    Trump? I always thought it was the legislative branch that passed bills...
    Unless he vetoes them and is overridden he does get a share of the blame.
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankind…it’s people I can’t stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment

  18. #16
    I expect the deficit to decline slightly. Medicaid enrollment is declining, Obamacare enrollment is declining, the off budget items for our foreign empire is declining. Tax receipts will be increasing due to the strong economy. So I voted it will average about the same.
    I just want objectivity on this forum and will point out flawed sources or points of view at my leisure.

    Quote Originally Posted by spudea on 01/15/24
    Trump will win every single state primary by double digits.
    Quote Originally Posted by spudea on 04/20/16
    There won't be a contested convention
    Quote Originally Posted by spudea on 05/30/17
    The shooting of Gabrielle Gifford was blamed on putting a crosshair on a political map. I wonder what event we'll see justified with pictures like this.



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  20. #17
    Don't know. But Hillary and Bernie would have added more debt.

  21. #18
    Quote Originally Posted by Krugminator2 View Post
    Here is an alternative viewpoint that applies equally to Austrians and leftists. I hear all this screeching from Austrians who think interest rates are too low. Austrians think the Fed is out of control holding rates down artificially and leftists think we need to raise interest raise so that the rates can be lowered in the next recession.

    Interest rates are primarily determined by inflation. If the Fed raises rates too much that is going to throw the economy into recession which would then force rates back down because inflation would drop. If you want interest rates to go up, the best way to do that is run a deficit. Inflationary fiscal policy through a tax cut would allow the Fed to offset that with rate hikes, which would stick because the economy wouldn't go into recession.
    Austrians don't just "want interest rates to go up."

    We want interest rates to reflect supply and demand for savings, as we want wages to reflect supply and demand for labor, etc.

  22. #19
    Quote Originally Posted by r3volution 3.0 View Post
    Austrians don't just "want interest rates to go up."

    We want interest rates to reflect supply and demand for savings, as we want wages to reflect supply and demand for labor, etc.
    The market already is almost entirely in control of rates. I mostly made that post because I know it will torque most who read it but I won't derail your thread.

    Simple question you should answer to yourself. Interest rates were under 5% in 1976 and rose to 20% by 1981. Does that mean Fed policy was really tight during that time or in your words were rates moving to reflect the supply and demand of savings? If you answer yes to either, then why did inflation skyrocket at the same time?

  23. #20
    Quote Originally Posted by dannno View Post
    Unfortunately anybody but Rand as a primary challenger is probably going to be worse than Trump.
    Probably . I would not even look for any serious competition and if Trump does not win , I predict Pence to be the next nominee .

  24. #21
    Quote Originally Posted by Anti Globalist View Post
    Don't know. But Hillary and Bernie would have added more debt.
    Bernie would have renamed it and called the debt Bonus Points or something more positive .

  25. #22
    Quote Originally Posted by spudea View Post
    I expect the deficit to decline slightly. Medicaid enrollment is declining, Obamacare enrollment is declining, the off budget items for our foreign empire is declining. Tax receipts will be increasing due to the strong economy. So I voted it will average about the same.
    That would actually be good .

  26. #23
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    Like all of his predecessors, he will make it grow. Except he will have it grow HEWG! It will be the biggest deficit any deficit will ever be.

  27. #24

    MOAR Options needed

    Poll needs more options. Bush doubled the deficit and Obama tripled it, so The Donald must do more to reach MAGA. Muh roads!
    Quote Originally Posted by Swordsmyth View Post
    You only show up to attack Trump when he is wrong
    Make America the Land of the Free & the Home of the Brave again



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  29. #25
    Quote Originally Posted by Krugminator2 View Post
    Here is an alternative viewpoint that applies equally to Austrians and leftists. I hear all this screeching from Austrians who think interest rates are too low. Austrians think the Fed is out of control holding rates down artificially and leftists think we need to raise interest raise so that the rates can be lowered in the next recession.

    Interest rates are primarily determined by inflation. If the Fed raises rates too much that is going to throw the economy into recession which would then force rates back down because inflation would drop. If you want interest rates to go up, the best way to do that is run a deficit. Inflationary fiscal policy through a tax cut would allow the Fed to offset that with rate hikes, which would stick because the economy wouldn't go into recession.
    The Fed can't control investment - mal investment will create a bigger recession when stuff is over-valued and the price corrects. It's like the stock market, its way over valued and due for a correction.

  30. #26
    Quote Originally Posted by Swordsmyth View Post
    Unless he vetoes them and is overridden he does get a share of the blame.
    Pfizer Macht Frei!

    Openly Straight Man, Danke, Awarded Top Rated Influencer. Community Standards Enforcer.


    Quiz: Test Your "Income" Tax IQ!

    Short Income Tax Video

    The Income Tax Is An Excise, And Excise Taxes Are Privilege Taxes

    The Federalist Papers, No. 15:

    Except as to the rule of appointment, the United States have an indefinite discretion to make requisitions for men and money; but they have no authority to raise either by regulations extending to the individual citizens of America.

  31. #27
    Quote Originally Posted by Krugminator2 View Post
    The market already is almost entirely in control of rates. I mostly made that post because I know it will torque most who read it but I won't derail your thread.
    Even if that were true, "almost entirely" isn't good enough.

    Also, the problem isn't limited to the Fed's direct interventions in the market.

    The very existence of the Fed as lender of last resort distorts the market.

    Simple question you should answer to yourself. Interest rates were under 5% in 1976 and rose to 20% by 1981. Does that mean Fed policy was really tight during that time or in your words were rates moving to reflect the supply and demand of savings? If you answer yes to either, then why did inflation skyrocket at the same time?
    If the crux of your argument is that the Fed has no effect on markets, why should it exist at all?

  32. #28
    Quote Originally Posted by Danke View Post
    Trump? I always thought it was the legislative branch that passed bills...
    Presidents don't control the debt. You are right.

  33. #29
    Quote Originally Posted by Krugminator2 View Post
    The market already is almost entirely in control of rates. I mostly made that post because I know it will torque most who read it but I won't derail your thread.

    Simple question you should answer to yourself. Interest rates were under 5% in 1976 and rose to 20% by 1981. Does that mean Fed policy was really tight during that time or in your words were rates moving to reflect the supply and demand of savings? If you answer yes to either, then why did inflation skyrocket at the same time?
    Interest rates do tend to follow the inflation rate. Interest rates have three parts-

    1) the expected rate of inflation during the time of the loan.
    2) the desired rate of real return
    3) a risk factor the lender adds for the perceived risk of the borrower defaulting. The riskier the borrower, the higher the premium.

    As for the 20% rates, the Fed did crank up rates at that time to try to fight soaring inflation which had hit double digits. The higher rates did slow the inflation rate- and the economy which went into a recession with 10% unemployment. After that passed, the economy and inflation calmed down a lot.

  34. #30
    Quote Originally Posted by r3volution 3.0 View Post
    The very existence of the Fed

    If the crux of your argument is that the Fed has no effect on markets, why should it exist at all?
    The Fed shouldn't exist.

    The Fed caused the inflation in the 1970s. Interest rates kept going up in the 70's because the Fed wasn't sufficiently slowing money growth. Interest rates are the tail and inflation is the dog. Rates are low today because the Fed policy kept the economy from expanding which would have caused rates to rise on their own.

    Quote Originally Posted by Bernanke
    The Fed’s ability to affect real rates of return, especially longer-term real rates, is transitory and limited. Except in the short run, real interest rates are determined by a wide range of economic factors, including prospects for economic growth — not by the Fed.
    Quote Originally Posted by Friedman
    After the U.S. experience during the Great Depression, and after inflation and rising interest rates in the 1970s and disinflation and falling interest rates in the 1980s, I thought the fallacy of identifying tight money with high interest rates and easy money with low interest rates was dead. Apparently, old fallacies never die.

    Even these gold standard supporting Austrians use this view. As far as I can tell, the only libertarians/Austrians who don't support this view have an affiliation with the Mises Institute.
    https://www.alt-m.org/2016/12/01/fed...nterest-rates/

    "The unvarnished truth is that interest rates have been low since the last months of 2008, not because the Fed has deliberately kept them so, but in large part owing to its misguided attempt, back in 2008, to keep them from falling in the first place."
    https://www.alt-m.org/2016/07/06/why...-rates-so-low/

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