Clinton Leads in Key Battlegrounds; Seen As Big Debate Winner

[CPUd]

Clinton Leads in Key Battlegrounds; Seen As Big Debate Winner

New Public Policy Polling surveys in Colorado, Florida, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Virginia, conducted on behalf of VoteVets Action Fund, find Hillary Clinton leading in each state. Voters in all five states see Clinton as having been the runaway winner of Monday night’s debate, and they question Donald Trump’s temperament and preparedness for office.

Clinton has solid leads in Colorado, Pennsylvania, and Virginia- states seen as important to her path to 270 electoral votes- and modest leads in Florida and North Carolina, where wins would be indicative of a dominant overall victory in the Electoral College. If these results hold up, Donald Trump has no path to victory:

State
4 Way Horse Race
2 Way Horse Race

Colorado
Clinton 46, Trump 40, Johnson 6, Stein 2
Clinton 51, Trump 44

Florida
Clinton 45, Trump 43, Johnson 3, Stein 1
Clinton 48, Trump 45

North Carolina
Clinton 44, Trump 42, Johnson 7
Clinton 49, Trump 45

Pennsylvania
Clinton 45, Trump 39, Johnson 6, Stein 2
Clinton 49, Trump 44

Virginia
Clinton 46, Trump 40, Johnson 7, Stein 1
Clinton 49, Trump 43

The debate Monday night is one of the things giving Clinton a big boost. In all of these states she’s seen as having won it by a wide margin:

State
Debate Winner

Colorado
Clinton 53, Trump 31

Florida
Clinton 52, Trump 35

North Carolina
Clinton 53, Trump 31

Pennsylvania
Clinton 51, Trump 32

Virginia
Clinton 54, Trump 30

One area where Clinton particularly received a boost Monday night is with voters under 30. They overwhelmingly see Clinton as the winner and they’re starting to vote for her in larger numbers than they had before:

State
Debate Winner
4 Way Horse Race
2 Way Horse Race

Colorado
Clinton 64, Trump 23
Clinton 50, Trump 27, Johnson 15, Stein 2
Clinton 62, Trump 34

Florida
Clinton 65, Trump 32
Clinton 54, Trump 28, Johnson 4, Stein 4
Clinton 63, Trump 35

North Carolina
Clinton 59, Trump 17
Clinton 46, Trump 27, Johnson 19
Clinton 56, Trump 32

Pennsylvania
Clinton 53, Trump 24
Clinton 45, Trump 22, Johnson 11, Stein 4
Clinton 57, Trump 35

Virginia
Clinton 53, Trump 24
Clinton 44, Johnson 24, Trump 21, Stein 2
Clinton 50, Trump 24

Clinton has at least a 19 point lead with young voters in the full field in each state, leads of 24-28 points in a head to head match up with Trump, and is seen as the debate winner by 29-42 points with young voters in this set of states.

Monday night’s debate created large contrasts in voters’ minds when it comes to whether each candidate is prepared to be President, has the temperament to be President, and can be trusted with nuclear weapons. On all three of those tests Donald Trump fails miserably:

State
Prepared to be President (Yes/No)
Temperament to be President (Yes/No)
Can be Trusted with Nuclear Weapons (Yes/No)

Colorado
34/60
35/61
38/56

Florida
40/55
40/53
40/52

North Carolina
35/60
35/57
38/55

Pennsylvania
37/56
38/56
40/54

Virginia
36/59
35/61
39/56
...
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/m...te-winner.html

[CaptUSA]

yay

/sarc

[CPUd]

New electoral forecast from 538:

[Chester Copperpot]

theres no way anybody thinks clinton won the debate.... i call another bull$#@! thread on cPUD

[silverhandorder]

Perhaps. I say we wait two weeks or until next one approaches before making any conclusions.

Edit: also LA times poll had Trump's numbers go up after debate. So these polling companies are doing magic I would not put too much stock in any one data point.

[CPUd]

Perhaps. I say we wait two weeks or until next one approaches before making any conclusions.

Edit: also LA times poll had Trump's numbers go up after debate. So these polling companies are doing magic I would not put too much stock in any one data point.

Correct. Wait for the next 3 polls that will show the same thing. While you wait, go find out how the LA Times poll works.

[silverhandorder]

Your predictions are always wrong so I feel safe assuming the opposite. As far as how LA times works isn't it rolling avg? So a tick up after debate is a good thing.

[Ender]

theres no way anybody thinks clinton won the debate.... i call another bull$#@! thread on cPUD

Come on- even Judge Nap says she won.

[nikcers]

I think that Trump is a secret libertarian and is just trying to fool us all. That's why he said he likes stop and frisk, and that's why he has such a bad platform with out any thought out ideas, its because his platform isn't real, because he is really going to be a Ron Paul libertarian and fire the government, not increase the size of the government111

[CPUd]

Your predictions are always wrong so I feel safe assuming the opposite. As far as how LA times works isn't it rolling avg? So a tick up after debate is a good thing.

Believe that at your own peril. But you should probably be out there finding Trump people and registering them to vote.

[dannno]

Come on- even Judge Nap says she won.

A lot of Trump supporters are saying she won because he didn't attack her hard enough - he didn't go off on Bill Clinton raping people, The Clinton Foundation and didn't hit her hard enough on the emails, etc..

In Stefan's analysis, he felt the same way in his gut, but him and Mike kinda pulled back and were making the point how a lot of people were planning to tune in and would really be hearing Donald Trump speak in a political sense for the first time.. Most people don't watch his speeches and didn't watch the Republican debates, all they know about what he says are soundbytes in the mainstream media. So a lot of people tuned in to see what crazy things he might say, and so he toned himself way back so that his introduction to the masses wouldn't be the stereotype image of Donald Trump we see from the media.

[silverhandorder]

Believe that at your own peril. But you should probably be out there finding Trump people and registering them to vote.

I'm just voting , I am not going to campaign for him.

Edit: also on danno point. A lot of analytical people like Stefan and Peter are making a play for an argument. I don't think that works well in this type of election. This is why a lot of people on our side are thinking he lost.

[Tywysog Cymru]

theres no way anybody thinks clinton won the debate.... i call another bull$#@! thread on cPUD

I watched the debate. Trump declined to go on the attack and Clinton got the best of him.

[Anti Federalist]

Come on- even Judge Nap says she won.

Honestly.

She clobbered him.

It was, from the few clips I saw, embarrassing, actually.

[Chester Copperpot]

I watched the debate. Trump declined to go on the attack and Clinton got the best of him.

Yeah I watched it too... I didnt think anything like you think

[Lovecraftian4Paul]

Notice how there were no poll threads for the roughly two weeks after Hillary collapsed on 9/11 and Trump surged. Now, the Hillary surge has to be screamed here from the rooftops. Pathetic, really.

I don't know if Trump will win, but he was declared dead when she was way ahead in August. Hillary's support is extremely soft and the yo-yo effect will continue unless something dramatic happens. She's one coughing fit/fainting spell away from another narrow Trump lead.

[rprprs]

Honestly.

She clobbered him.

It was, from the few clips I saw, embarrassing, actually.

I watched the entire debate and then additionally viewed selected clips thereafter.
I detest and loath Clinton to a degree that exceeds my considerable distaste for Trump.

That said, I completely agree with your assessment.

Trump got pummeled, and it was largely his own fault.

[Ender]

I watched the entire debate and then additionally viewed selected clips thereafter.
I detest and loath Clinton to a degree that exceeds my considerable distaste for Trump.

That said, I completely agree with your assessment.

Trump got pummeled, and it was largely his own fault.

Exactly my POV on all counts.

[enhanced_deficit]

Don't matter, neocons and war crimes lobbies are pretty demoralized due to overheating and insultgate scandals.

[Mordan]

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...tein-5974.html

[Jan2017]

Health concerns of Hillary as President not addressed - so no win with Holt refusing to vet a candidate about an important concern.

[misterx]

CPU assured us that Trump wouldn't get the nomination. When he makes a prediction, you better listen.. and bet on the opposite.

[fcreature]

theres no way anybody thinks clinton won the debate.... i call another bull$#@! thread on cPUD

Have you spoken to anyone outside of Tumpkin boards?

I would say 75% of the IRL Trumpkins I know think that Hitlery won.

[TheTexan]

Trump's poll numbers are fantastic. Just ask anyone. You won't believe, how good his poll numbers are. He's being treated very unfairly in this poll. Trump owns properties in all of these battleground states. He thinks these states are fantastic states.

He has great poll numbers - just ask Hannity. Noone asks Hannity. The media just likes to say these things. But they don't talk to Hannity. Just ask him and he will tell you, Trump's poll numbers are great.

[Chester Copperpot]

Have you spoken to anyone outside of Tumpkin boards?

I would say 75% of the IRL Trumpkins I know think that Hitlery won.

this is the only board i go on... i dont consider this board a trumpkin board... nor am i trumpkin... part of it i suppose is prejudice on my part... i dislike hillary intensely and dont believe anything she says...

[enhanced_deficit]

Huuuuge winner she was.


Healther movement going mainstream and impacting polls

[CPUd]

Huuuuge winner she was.

LOL this one cling to Reince Priebus' favorite poll, y'all please go comment in some of his threads.