Hurricane headed for Bermuda?

[Swordsmyth]

Currently Cat2

[Swordsmyth]

Cat4

[Swordsmyth]

Florence, which became the first significant hurricane (Category +3) of the 2018 Atlantic season, had maximum sustained winds of 130 mph, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC). The powerful Category 4 storm is some 2,000 miles from the US coastline, but it is moving northwest at 13mph, will generate big swells in Bermuda starting Friday and could slam into the US East Coast next week.

Florence became a hurricane on Tuesday and immediately strengthened to a Category 4 hurricane on Wednesday afternoon.

“Florence defied all odds developing over not-so-hot water, dust on all sides, and strong upper shear. 5pm has her at a Cat 4 130mph.
This is from the NHC: “It should be noted that there is considerable model ensemble spread and run-to-run variability for Florence’s track beyond day 5. Given the large uncertainty at these time ranges, it is far too soon to speculate what, if any, impacts Florence may have on the U.S. East Coast next week. Regardless of Florence’s eventual track, large swells emanating from the hurricane will reach Bermuda beginning on Friday, resulting in life-threatening surf and rip currents on the island. Swells from Florence could also reach the U.S. East Coast by early next week,” said Mike’s Weather Page.

The latest computer models show the menacing hurricane coming dangerously close to the East Coast next week. While it is too early to forecast the exact path, some models show a recurve out to sea. By the end of this week, meteorologists will have a better grasp on the storm’s bearings.
“Very concerning shift in the EPS ensemble guidance with Hurricane Florence … must now seriously consider this storm a U.S. landfall threat. Still considerable uncertainty about a possible / hopeful turn away from the coast out to sea. Continue to monitor thru the weekend,” tweeted Ryan Maue, Meteorologist @weatherdotus.

Very concerning shift in the EPS ensemble guidance with Hurricane #Florence ... must now seriously consider this storm a U.S. landfall threat.

Still considerable uncertainty about a possible / hopeful turn away from the coast out to sea.

Continue to monitor thru the weekend. pic.twitter.com/m692qfL48s
— Ryan Maue | weathermodels.com (@RyanMaue) September 5, 2018

“Latest idea from the European ensemble tell us a lot: we have much more to figure out before solving the track mystery that is Florence,” tweeted Ed Vallee, Meteorologist @Valleewx.

Latest idea from the European ensemble tell us a lot: we have much more to figure out before solving the track mystery that is #Florence pic.twitter.com/zwLoo4hKjh
— Ed Vallee �� Vallee Wx Consulting �� (@EdValleeWx) September 5, 2018

“Group of simulations from European (red) and American (blue) models indicate there is some chance Hurricane Florence is a problem for the East Coast in 7 or 8 days. It could turn out to sea, too. For now, we just watch,” tweeted Capital Weather Gang.

Group of simulations from European (red) and American (blue) models indicate there is some chance Hurricane #Florence is a problem for the East Coast in 7 or 8 days. It could turn out to sea, too. For now, we just watch. Here's our explainer: https://t.co/eTFa2uGhzy pic.twitter.com/X0dQzcIhl2
— Capital Weather Gang (@capitalweather) September 5, 2018

While there is much uncertainty surrounding its trajectory — the models’ overwhelming show the East Coast could be in Florence’s crosshairs in the next 8 to 10 days. Even if Florence curves out to sea, models show numerous other systems developing right behind it, which indicates that hurricane season is nearing its peak. From now until early November, this is the timeframe for the conditions that fuel powerful storms.

More at: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-...oast-next-week

[Swordsmyth]

https://earth.nullschool.net/#curren...1.25,14.40,342

https://www.ventusky.com/?p=34.2;-10...d-850hpa&m=gfs

[Aratus]

And after that, NOVA SCOTIA...

[Swordsmyth]

Down to Cat1 and turning south away from Bermuda but it is expected to strengthen again.

[Swordsmyth]

[Swordsmyth]

[Swordsmyth]

[pcosmar]

Fear mongering?

Their "scientific" predictions are crap all day long.

Dart board or Bones in a bowl are more accurate,, and I say that as a veteran of a dozen hurricane hits.
Danced in the eye of a couple.

Not a hurricane,, Tropical Storm Florence is no where near Bermuda.. (not much of a threat)

May be a storm on the east coast.

[Swordsmyth]

Fear mongering?

Just providing a heads up to anyone interested.

Not a hurricane,, Tropical Storm Florence is no where near Bermuda.. (not much of a threat)

It was a Cat4 when I first posted and I included a "?" in the title because very little is certain with hurricanes, it may become a hurricane again (that is the current prediction) but it isn't likely to hit Bermuda now.

[pcosmar]

Just providing a heads up to anyone interested.



It was a Cat4 when I first posted and I included a "?" in the title because very little is certain with hurricanes, it may become a hurricane again (that is the current prediction) but it isn't likely to hit Bermuda now.

And out in the middle of empty ocean a thousand miles from anything,,, with some fictitious fantasy track..

I have seen the Chicken Little Syndrome repeated every time some storm is in the ocean. long before it is anywhere close to being able to be tracked.

The predictions are so full of $#@! they are not worth repeating,,, as is seen with this storm that is no where near the predicted track or strength 2 days ago.

[Swordsmyth]

And out in the middle of empty ocean a thousand miles from anything,,, with some fictitious fantasy track..

I have seen the Chicken Little Syndrome repeated every time some storm is in the ocean. long before it is anywhere close to being able to be tracked.

The predictions are so full of $#@! they are not worth repeating,,, as is seen with this storm that is no where near the predicted track or strength 2 days ago.

Correction: I said it was Cat4 when I first posted but it was Cat2, later the same day it was Cat4.

The model did predict a drop down to a TS and now it predicts it will be a Major hurricane again before landfall.

I am not telling anyone to panic but those who may be hit by it might want to take precautions even if it isn't a big one.

[dannno]

Straight for the banks.

These kinds of storms can cause millions of dollars in damages.

But you can't put a price tag on the waves..

[pcosmar]

Straight for the banks.

Maybe next week,, if it doesn't go someplace else... or fizzle out. or meander around in the Atlantic and change direction entirely.

[Swordsmyth]

Cat1

[dannno]

This is what I use for long-term surf forecasting:

http://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/disp...a=natla_height

[dannno]

[asurfaholic]

Headed right for me. Cat 4 when it hits or very strong cat 3. I lived ocean front in Surf City when hurricane Bertha and Fran hit in 96. Bertha was a category 2 and packed a punch. Fran came as a mid cat 3 about 4 or 6 weeks later and rearranged the coast. Our house was one of very few left still standing.

I’m a little more inland now, but concerning that the storm hits, then stalls for a couple days. I’ve heard it could dump 3’ of rain. It’s been a wet summer already everything is already saturated.

[donnay]

Headed right for me. Cat 4 when it hits or very strong cat 3. I lived ocean front in Surf City when hurricane Bertha and Fran hit in 96. Bertha was a category 2 and packed a punch. Fran came as a mid cat 3 about 4 or 6 weeks later and rearranged the coast. Our house was one of very few left still standing.

I’m a little more inland now, but concerning that the storm hits, then stalls for a couple days. I’ve heard it could dump 3’ of rain. It’s been a wet summer already everything is already saturated.

You and yours are in my prayers. I have a son and a friend there as well.

[asurfaholic]

We have fared well through recent flooding events but there’s a lot of people still recovering from the last major flood. There’s going to be serious damage

As much as I love to surf this isn’t a good storm for surf. Ideally it stays off the coast and lets the swell hit from afar. Storm like this it just gets nasty fast.

[dannno]

We have fared well through recent flooding events but there’s a lot of people still recovering from the last major flood. There’s going to be serious damage

As much as I love to surf this isn’t a good storm for surf. Ideally it stays off the coast and lets the swell hit from afar. Storm like this it just gets nasty fast.

It will be good somewhere, a lot of times they will come through and then turn offshore and clean up.

[phill4paul]

Headed right for me. Cat 4 when it hits or very strong cat 3. I lived ocean front in Surf City when hurricane Bertha and Fran hit in 96. Bertha was a category 2 and packed a punch. Fran came as a mid cat 3 about 4 or 6 weeks later and rearranged the coast. Our house was one of very few left still standing.

I’m a little more inland now, but concerning that the storm hits, then stalls for a couple days. I’ve heard it could dump 3’ of rain. It’s been a wet summer already everything is already saturated.

Looks to be shaping up into another Hugo.

[specsaregood]

It will be good somewhere, a lot of times they will come through and then turn offshore and clean up.

My business partner was enjoying it all weekend, he said he wont be out again though until after the storm as its too hairy for his old ass, leaving it for the younger guys.

[dannno]

We have fared well through recent flooding events but there’s a lot of people still recovering from the last major flood. There’s going to be serious damage

As much as I love to surf this isn’t a good storm for surf. Ideally it stays off the coast and lets the swell hit from afar. Storm like this it just gets nasty fast.

I would be checking your south face spots that have some protection from the west (edit: EAST!!) winds (sorry I'm on the opposite coast) Thursday evening.. Oak Island and around Atlantic Beach. But may be windy and dangerous. The east coast will get some good surf out of it, might not be best right in the path of the hurricane tho. Probably some select spots in Delaware and Jersey (I'd be out at Cape May Point in Jersey probably.. but I'll bet Bay Ridge in Delaware will be epic too)

[Swordsmyth]

Headed right for me. Cat 4 when it hits or very strong cat 3. I lived ocean front in Surf City when hurricane Bertha and Fran hit in 96. Bertha was a category 2 and packed a punch. Fran came as a mid cat 3 about 4 or 6 weeks later and rearranged the coast. Our house was one of very few left still standing.

I’m a little more inland now, but concerning that the storm hits, then stalls for a couple days. I’ve heard it could dump 3’ of rain. It’s been a wet summer already everything is already saturated.

Good luck and best wishes.

[donnay]

You and yours are in my prayers. I have a son and a friend there as well.

[pcosmar]

Looks to be shaping up into another Hugo.

It certainly is being Hyped so,, a predicted disaster when is was still a Tropical storm threatening no one..


Will they be pleased of disappointed if it fizzles again?

[donnay]

[thoughtomator]

I think I found @Suzanimal's secret Twitter account.

https://twitter.com/torneen/status/1038851715838210048