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Thread: Dow Finishes Worst December Since Great Depression - CNN

  1. #61
    Gold will go over 1290 today and silver to 15 3/4 . Dow could be back to 22 1/2 .
    Do something Danke



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  3. #62
    It is possible to still be on track for a 19K Dow in 2019 .
    Do something Danke

  4. #63
    Quote Originally Posted by Madison320 View Post
    The Dow and I'm assuming all stock indexes contain dividends

    .
    1. The Dow Prices above don't include dividends. That is all capital appreciation. "Changes in the index over time do not include any dividends paid by the 30 DJIA companies." https://finance.zacks.com/dow-jones-...ends-4893.html


    If businesses always grew faster than everything else eventually an average sized business would be worth a trillion cars or a trillion acres of land.
    Sure. Eventually. Though cars will most likely be fancier at that point.

    Maybe there's a chart that tracks total market cap for the Dow over time. If I'm right that should roughly track with inflation
    You aren't right. "Stocks on the long term have returned 6.8% per year after inflation" https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stocks_for_the_Long_Run

    Wealth isn't fixed. Businesses in aggregate create wealth. Economies in a free society continuously make things better and cheaper.

    Companies don't need to grow faster than inflation to invest in them. They just need to have a high enough dividend. A business can have a constant price and generate a decent profit year after year. It doesn't have to grow it just has to be profitable.
    I don't get the dividend fetish. A company can a pay dividend. Or they can reinvest and make even more money. It just depends on what makes sense.

  5. #64
    Dow moving back to 23
    Do something Danke



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  7. #65
    Quote Originally Posted by Krugminator2 View Post
    1. The Dow Prices above don't include dividends. That is all capital appreciation. "Changes in the index over time do not include any dividends paid by the 30 DJIA companies." https://finance.zacks.com/dow-jones-...ends-4893.html
    Not according to Wikipedia:

    "The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), or simply the Dow (/ˈdaʊ/), is a stock market index that indicates the value of 30 large, publicly owned companies based in the United States, and how they have traded in the stock market during various periods of time.[4] The value of the Dow is not a weighted arithmetic mean[5] and does not represent its component companies' market capitalization, but rather the sum of the price of one share of stock for each component company. The sum is corrected by a factor which changes whenever one of the component stocks has a stock split or stock dividend, so as to generate a consistent value for the index."


    Quote Originally Posted by Krugminator2 View Post

    Wealth isn't fixed. Businesses in aggregate create wealth. Economies in a free society continuously make things better and cheaper.
    I'm not talking about wealth. I'm talking about the money supply. If you have a fixed money supply but increasing wealth (productivity), the price of an average company would remain constant. Stuff would get cheaper.


    Quote Originally Posted by Krugminator2 View Post

    I don't get the dividend fetish. A company can a pay dividend. Or they can reinvest and make even more money. It just depends on what makes sense.
    It's not a fetish. It's because you don't understand the difference between a dividend (profit) and capital appreciation. You can make endless profits without increasing the money supply. You can't have endless capital appreciation without increasing the money supply.

    Here's a question for you. Go back to my example of an island economy with one company and a fixed, total money supply of 100 ounces of gold on the island. Explain to me how the company's value would keep increasing until it exceeds 100 ounces of gold.

  8. #66
    I'm not talking about wealth. I'm talking about the money supply. If you have a fixed money supply but increasing wealth (productivity), the price of an average company would remain constant. Stuff would get cheaper.
    A growing company should always be worth the exact same thing? If the Banana Corporation is able to produce twice as many bananas as before they should not be worth more money?

    If you are assuming that prices fall by the exact same amount as production increases, why would a company want to increase production if it does not lead to more revenue? It also assumes that all of the gains in productivity go to prices. In reality it goes to primarily the owners of the capital. Workers may (or may not) get a share and the rest can go to prices. You are making the assumption that the corporation does not get any benefits from increasing their production and the workers don't get more pay for working twice as hard to produce more goods.

    You can make endless profits without increasing the money supply.
    If all the gains in productivity are given out in prices, corporate profits are fixed and not rising. They are limited- not unlimited. If it is the profits which are unlimited, the gains in output are not going to prices or workers. Those are the three places the gains in productivity can go- prices, workers, or the owners of capital. The owners of capital are not a charity- they are in search of profits or they would not go into business.

    Stock investors also want companies which are increasing their profits. They want a return on their stock purchases which are buying a portion of the company. If the value of a company is not rising, nobody will want to buy stocks in that company since they don't gain anything. With no demand for those stock shares, the price of those existing shares will go down and the (stock) value of the company will go down. Apple doesn't sell $1 trillion worth of goods but is valued at $1 trillion because investors are willing to spend that much money buying part of the company in the belief (or hope) that their sales and output could hit that point in the future. Unless profits are rising, the (stock) price of the company will go down.


    Here's a question for you. Go back to my example of an island economy with one company and a fixed, total money supply of 100 ounces of gold on the island. Explain to me how the company's value would keep increasing until it exceeds 100 ounces of gold.
    If profits are "unlimited" does that mean that in your example profits can exceed the 100 ounces of gold in your money supply? If the money supply is fixed and profits are rising- where is that money coming from? It cannot go to both profits and lower prices.
    Last edited by Zippyjuan; 01-03-2019 at 03:03 PM.

  9. #67
    Quote Originally Posted by Madison320 View Post
    Not according to Wikipedia:

    The sum is corrected by a factor which changes whenever one of the component stocks has a stock split or stock dividend, so as to generate a consistent value for the index."
    I got that wrong. The ETFs understate performance because they adjust for dividends, which is why I made the mistake. It doesn't actually change anything conceptually for stocks as a whole.

    Stocks outpace inflation by 6% or so. Was the dividend yield 6%? No.


    Quote Originally Posted by Madison320 View Post

    Here's a question for you. Go back to my example of an island economy with one company and a fixed, total money supply of 100 ounces of gold on the island. Explain to me how the company's value would keep increasing until it exceeds 100 ounces of gold.
    You are advocating deflation by keeping the money supply fixed. So yeah stocks wouldn't have much capital appreciation when you have prices falling every year. The companies value would still increase in value as it was able to make things more efficiently and purchasing power went up. Not all gains go to the consumer.

    It is important to realize holding the money supply fixed isn't a free market or a good thing. The money supply would expand overtime in a free market by private banks.

  10. #68
    Quote Originally Posted by Zippyjuan View Post
    A growing company should always be worth the exact same thing? If the Banana Corporation is able to produce twice as many bananas as before they should not be worth more money?
    They should be worth the same amount in nominal terms, but the money is worth more. The value would be higher.

    But that is assuming all of the other companies and industries doubled their production, otherwise it wouldn't be your average company.
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  11. #69
    Quote Originally Posted by Krugminator2 View Post
    I got that wrong. The ETFs understate performance because they adjust for dividends, which is why I made the mistake. It doesn't actually change anything conceptually for stocks as a whole.

    Stocks outpace inflation by 6% or so. Was the dividend yield 6%? No.




    You are advocating deflation by keeping the money supply fixed. So yeah stocks wouldn't have much capital appreciation when you have prices falling every year. The companies value would still increase in value as it was able to make things more efficiently and purchasing power went up. Not all gains go to the consumer.

    It is important to realize holding the money supply fixed isn't a free market or a good thing. The money supply would expand overtime in a free market by private banks.
    You never heard of gold mining?
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

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    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

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  12. #70
    Quote Originally Posted by oyarde View Post
    It is possible to still be on track for a 19K Dow in 2019 .
    19k? Ha! Practically all of the point gains since 2009 were imaginary. Created out of nothing but bank accounting entries and can be removed just as quickly. The real value of the Dow is back around the 2008 reversal point. It's all been QE fakery since then, except for retirement account withholdings.
    "Let it not be said that we did nothing."-Ron Paul

    "We have set them on the hobby-horse of an idea about the absorption of individuality by the symbolic unit of COLLECTIVISM. They have never yet and they never will have the sense to reflect that this hobby-horse is a manifest violation of the most important law of nature, which has established from the very creation of the world one unit unlike another and precisely for the purpose of instituting individuality."- A Quote From Some Old Book

  13. #71
    Quote Originally Posted by devil21 View Post
    19k? Ha! Practically all of the point gains since 2009 were imaginary. Created out of nothing but bank accounting entries and can be removed just as quickly. The real value of the Dow is back around the 2008 reversal point. It's all been QE fakery since then, except for retirement account withholdings.
    That is possible too , but I think less likely . I know it is grossly overvalued but I have a hard time seeing it go more than a quarter drop off the 2018 high without people buying it again .
    Do something Danke

  14. #72
    Quote Originally Posted by Krugminator2 View Post
    I got that wrong. The ETFs understate performance because they adjust for dividends, which is why I made the mistake. It doesn't actually change anything conceptually for stocks as a whole.

    Stocks outpace inflation by 6% or so. Was the dividend yield 6%? No.
    That's probably true if you look at the latest stock prices. But that's because of the massive amount of QE from 2009 on and ZIRP. Mainstreet prices haven't caught up yet. I'll bet if you look at prices before QE they'll be somewhere around the general inflation rate.


    Quote Originally Posted by Krugminator2 View Post
    You are advocating deflation by keeping the money supply fixed. So yeah stocks wouldn't have much capital appreciation when you have prices falling every year. The companies value would still increase in value as it was able to make things more efficiently and purchasing power went up. Not all gains go to the consumer.

    It is important to realize holding the money supply fixed isn't a free market or a good thing. The money supply would expand overtime in a free market by private banks.
    For the sake of this debate I'm not advocating whether an expanding money supply is good or bad. This is a math exercise. Stocks wouldn't have ANY long term capital appreciation with a fixed money supply, theoretically. Do you agree?

    Update: Wait a minute. I think I figured something out. We might both be right. I think it depends on how you define inflation. If you define it as the increase in the supply of money, then I'm right. If you define it as the overall increase in prices, then you're right. Now that I think about it, as businesses get more productive the ratio of the value of the business to an item it produces gets higher over time. So I was wrong when I was thinking that the value of a business would get "out of whack" with other prices over time because over time businesses get more productive and so they can produce more stuff with the same number of employees. I think an important point is that it's not "growth" of the company that's causing this it's an increase in productivity. The ratio of "company" price to "stuff" price increases with productivity, but whether the "company" price increases or decreases depends on the money supply.
    Last edited by Madison320; 01-04-2019 at 09:47 AM.



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  16. #73
    Quote Originally Posted by Madison320 View Post
    That's probably true if you look at the latest stock prices. But that's because of the massive amount of QE from 2009 on and ZIRP. Mainstreet prices haven't caught up yet. I'll bet if you look at prices before QE they'll be somewhere around the general inflation rate.

    I'm using data going back to 1800 in the case of Stocks for the Long Run. And Triumph of the Optimists (which was written in the early 2000's before QE looks at data world wide for every country that has a stock market going back to 1900.

    4-7% return on stocks above the inflation rate has been the historical norm.

  17. #74
    Quote Originally Posted by Krugminator2 View Post
    I'm using data going back to 1800 in the case of Stocks for the Long Run. And Triumph of the Optimists (which was written in the early 2000's before QE looks at data world wide for every country that has a stock market going back to 1900.

    4-7% return on stocks above the inflation rate has been the historical norm.
    Did you read my update?

    You're measuring inflation as an increase in prices. So in that case you're right, stock prices would be higher than the general price inflation rate due to gains in productivity. If you measure inflation as an increase in the money supply, then I'm right. Stock prices have not been increasing faster than the money supply.

    Also usually when someone refers to a "return on stocks" they are including dividends. So the stock price is not going up by 4-7% above the rate of inflation.
    Last edited by Madison320; 01-04-2019 at 10:08 AM.

  18. #75
    Dow looks to be steadying up around 23 1/2 .
    Do something Danke

  19. #76
    About the relationship between consumer prices and total stock market capitalization:

    1. It's definitely true that the stock market has historically outperformed the rise in consumer prices.

    2. Some part of this must be a result of Cantillon effects; i.e. newly printed money does not raise prices instantly and evenly, but rather step-by-step from buyer to seller, so that those items closest to the source of the money rise in price faster than those items farther from the source of the money. Since, in our system, new money basically enters the economy via the bond market, it makes sense that it would arrive in the nearby stock market before it arrived at the grocery store.

    3. In a free market (contra our system), consumer prices should more or less continually fall (in real terms), which is to say that the wages of labor should more or less continually rise (in real terms). Likewise, and for the same reason, the wages of capital should more or less continually rise; and so it makes sense that total market capitalization (i.e. the wages of capital over time discounted by the prevailing interest rate) would increase in real terms. So, what's odd is not that stock market cap has increased in real terms over the decades, but that it's increased so much faster than real wages (see point #2).

  20. #77
    Quote Originally Posted by r3volution 3.0 View Post
    About the relationship between consumer prices and total stock market capitalization:

    1. It's definitely true that the stock market has historically outperformed the rise in consumer prices.

    2. Some part of this must be a result of Cantillon effects; i.e. newly printed money does not raise prices instantly and evenly, but rather step-by-step from buyer to seller, so that those items closest to the source of the money rise in price faster than those items farther from the source of the money. Since, in our system, new money basically enters the economy via the bond market, it makes sense that it would arrive in the nearby stock market before it arrived at the grocery store.

    3. In a free market (contra our system), consumer prices should more or less continually fall (in real terms), which is to say that the wages of labor should more or less continually rise (in real terms). Likewise, and for the same reason, the wages of capital should more or less continually rise; and so it makes sense that total market capitalization (i.e. the wages of capital over time discounted by the prevailing interest rate) would increase in real terms. So, what's odd is not that stock market cap has increased in real terms over the decades, but that it's increased so much faster than real wages (see point #2).
    That assumes that productivity always increases (or at least the costs of production always decline) and that any gains from productivity go into prices. That money can go any of three places- higher wages for workers, more profits to the owners of the company, or lower prices. Today it is the owners of capital who have been reaping the rewards.


  21. #78
    Quote Originally Posted by Zippyjuan View Post
    That assumes that productivity always increases (or at least the costs of production always decline) and that any gains from productivity go into prices. That money can go any of three places- higher wages for workers, more profits to the owners of the company, or lower prices. Today it is the owners of capital who have been reaping the rewards.

    And they can do that because government manipulates the marketplace to undermine the leverage of the consumer and the labor pool.
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

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    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

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    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

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  22. #79
    Could we be at the beginning of the next big run up ?
    Do something Danke

  23. #80
    Quote Originally Posted by oyarde View Post
    Could we be at the beginning of the next big run up ?
    Comparing the Dow charts from 08/09 to recent movements shows probably a re-tracement back to 24500ish before nosediving again. There's always the dead cat bounce (PPT?) after the initial plunge, followed by the longer term sustained downward move. The swings appear bigger and closer together this time than 08/09, however. They took months to play out back then. Now it's weeks or even days.
    "Let it not be said that we did nothing."-Ron Paul

    "We have set them on the hobby-horse of an idea about the absorption of individuality by the symbolic unit of COLLECTIVISM. They have never yet and they never will have the sense to reflect that this hobby-horse is a manifest violation of the most important law of nature, which has established from the very creation of the world one unit unlike another and precisely for the purpose of instituting individuality."- A Quote From Some Old Book



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  25. #81
    Quote Originally Posted by Swordsmyth View Post
    And they can do that because government manipulates the marketplace to undermine the leverage of the consumer and the labor pool.
    It does follow the decline of Unions which fought to get a bigger share for workers.


  26. #82
    Quote Originally Posted by r3volution 3.0 View Post
    About the relationship between consumer prices and total stock market capitalization:

    1. It's definitely true that the stock market has historically outperformed the rise in consumer prices.

    2. Some part of this must be a result of Cantillon effects; i.e. newly printed money does not raise prices instantly and evenly, but rather step-by-step from buyer to seller, so that those items closest to the source of the money rise in price faster than those items farther from the source of the money. Since, in our system, new money basically enters the economy via the bond market, it makes sense that it would arrive in the nearby stock market before it arrived at the grocery store.

    3. In a free market (contra our system), consumer prices should more or less continually fall (in real terms), which is to say that the wages of labor should more or less continually rise (in real terms). Likewise, and for the same reason, the wages of capital should more or less continually rise; and so it makes sense that total market capitalization (i.e. the wages of capital over time discounted by the prevailing interest rate) would increase in real terms. So, what's odd is not that stock market cap has increased in real terms over the decades, but that it's increased so much faster than real wages (see point #2).
    I agree except I'd add that if the money supply were fixed, specifically the monetary base, the stock market cap should remain fixed. That's a good point about wages. I think they would also remain constant since workers also become more productive. Actually you could have a business that consisted of one owner who would also be the worker. All other prices would adjust down.

    So "Fixed Monetary Supply" = "Fixed market caps/Fixed wages" = "Declining prices everywhere else"

    My original point was that if we had a fixed monetary supply, net stock prices wouldn't go up, most people would make money thru dividends. Some really smart people would still be able to make money by buying low and selling high, but that would be the exception.

  27. #83
    Quote Originally Posted by Zippyjuan View Post
    It does follow the decline of Unions which fought to get a bigger share for workers.

    And the unions declined because they used excessive government power to destroy the companies that the workers worked for.

    There are many other things that CORRELATE as well but the root cause is government.
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankind…it’s people I can’t stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment

  28. #84
    Quote Originally Posted by Swordsmyth View Post
    And the unions declined because they used excessive government power to destroy the companies that the workers worked for.

    There are many other things that CORRELATE as well but the root cause is government.
    Government which is pretty much controlled by the rich capitalists.

  29. #85
    Quote Originally Posted by Zippyjuan View Post
    Government which is pretty much controlled by the rich capitalists.
    And?

    That's why government shouldn't be so powerful.
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankind…it’s people I can’t stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment

  30. #86
    Quote Originally Posted by Swordsmyth View Post
    And?

    That's why government shouldn't be so powerful.
    The paradox being that without a government restricting them, the rich capitalists are free to exploit labor as much as possible to maximize their profits. That means less of the pie going to workers. Removing government would make disparity worse- not better.

  31. #87
    Quote Originally Posted by Zippyjuan View Post
    The paradox being that without a government restricting them, the rich capitalists are free to exploit labor as much as possible to maximize their profits. That means less of the pie going to workers. Removing government would make disparity worse- not better.
    That is a fallacy.

    But you can just go on believing it if you like.


    In reality without government many more businesses would be created and prosper and provide competition for the labor pool, the bosses would have to offer more money or better conditions to get workers.
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankind…it’s people I can’t stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment

  32. #88
    Quote Originally Posted by Swordsmyth View Post
    That is a fallacy.

    But you can just go on believing it if you like.


    In reality without government many more businesses would be created and prosper and provide competition for the labor pool, the bosses would have to offer more money or better conditions to get workers.
    Historical examples?



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  34. #89
    Quote Originally Posted by Zippyjuan View Post
    Historical examples?
    Early America.

    Most of history.

    Any time when government was smaller.
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankind…it’s people I can’t stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment

  35. #90
    Well , I am feeling pretty good about the gold I bought at 1000 and 1100 .
    Do something Danke

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