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Thread: US Trade Surplus with Canada?

  1. #1

    US Trade Surplus with Canada?

    Trade is very complicated. It depends on what you count. Do you include goods a country like Canada gets from other countries and then ships to the US? Do you include services? We import oil from them but then refine the oil into products like gasoline and ship it back to them. Products move back and forth with one country adding something and sending it back or even on to another country which can happen many times before a consumer gets a final good to purchase.

    https://www.ft.com/content/1d8a46e8-...e-cc62a39d57a0

    Does the US have a trade deficit with Canada?

    Donald Trump loves to hate trade deficits. And he loves to hate what he claims is the US trade deficit with Canada. The problem is that’s something Canadian prime minister Justin Trudeau denies having.*

    The latest flare-up came in a presidential tweet on Wednesday, after it was reported that Mr Trump simply made up the claim about the deficit in a meeting with Mr Trudeau. “I had no idea, I just said ‘you’re wrong’,” Mr Trump recounted to attendees at a fundraising dinner this week, according to a transcript reported by the Washington Post.

    The tweet prompted a quick retort from pundits in Washington that US trade data showed the US had a surplus, not a deficit, with Canada.*

    But it turns out things are not that simple. It depends on whose data you rely on and what you call a trade deficit.*

    Here are three points:

    Yes, US trade data show that the US had a trade surplus with Canada last year
    According to figures released by the US Commerce Department last week the US in 2017 had a trade surplus in goods and services of $2.8bn.*


    But that was largely thanks to a $25.9bn US surplus in services, which range from financial services to tourism. That offset a $23.1bn deficit in goods, which is what Mr Trump has tended to focus on.*

    The overall surplus was also down from $7.7bn in 2016, though the US trade representative’s office complicates things by putting the 2016 surplus at $12.5bn, underscoring the existence of varying methodologies even within the US government.

    Canada’s own trade data appear to prove Mr Trump’s claim

    This is where things get interesting. There is actually a very real discrepancy between US and Canadian trade data, which show Canada running a much larger surplus in goods with the US than US data does.*

    And if you take Canadian data at face value, Mr Trump appears to be right.*

    According to its official balance of payments statistics, Canada last year had a goods and services surplus with the US of C$26.8bn (in US dollars, $20.5bn).

    Canada’s official trade data show a much larger deficit in goods of*C$89.2bn (US$68.3bn at today’s exchange rate). But that picture is complicated by the question of re-exports, or goods from third countries that are passing through Canada on their way to the US (which is something US officials argue distorts their data as well).

    Canada does have a trade deficit in services with the US, however. Last year it was worth C$13.7bn.

    Economists really wish Trump didn’t care about this

    There are few things that annoy economists more than President Trump’s obsession with trade deficits or his conviction that he can reduce them via his embrace of protectionism.

    A country’s trade balance is the result of many different things, ranging from the value of its currency to its standing as an investment destination in the world. Macroeconomic policy, economists point out, often has a bigger impact on trade balances than trade policy.

    Traditional trade data are also bad at reflecting the realities of the global economy today. In a world of global supply chains where imports of parts often leave countries as value-added exports of final products, and services are an increasingly important and misunderstood component, old fashioned trade data just doesn’t cut the mustard. That is why economists at the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development have been working for years on data that better reflect the value-added trade in goods around the world.*

    The US also has a unique relationship with its trade balance because of its position in the world. The fact that the dollar is a reserve currency and that US capital markets attract foreign investors is one driver of the deficit. Ironically, the tax cuts that Mr Trump championed — which will increase the US’s fiscal deficit and the US government’s need to borrow to fund it — are likely to have more of an impact on the trade deficit in 2018 than any trade policy moves.*

    Another deficit driver is the fact that US consumers save less than those in China and other countries and have an insatiable appetite for things like cheap consumer electronics.*

    A narrowing of the trade deficit also tends to be a sign of bad economic times in the US. The last time the US deficit narrowed sharply was in 2009 in the wake of the global financial crisis.*The last time the US ran a*trade surplus with the world was 1975.

    And finally: Mr Trump’s own metrics aren’t going his way. The US trade deficit actually increased by 12.1 per cent in his first year in office — something he has regularly declined to mention.*





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  3. #2
    Tell that to our dairy farmers that are getting hit w/ 270% tariffs. Stay out of the weeds w/ the MSM fantasy stats.

  4. #3
    Zippy, a lonely voice of reason on RPF.

  5. #4
    Quote Originally Posted by FSP-Rebel View Post
    Tell that to our dairy farmers that are getting hit w/ 270% tariffs. Stay out of the weeds w/ the MSM fantasy stats.
    The US also protects our own dairy with price supports which has led to the real problem- over-production. Canada tries to limit supplies.

    https://www.realagriculture.com/2018...ys-new-report/

    U.S. dairy subsidies equal 73 percent of producer returns, says new report

    Comparing government support for Canadian versus American dairy farmers is not a simple black and white process. While Canada’s dairy sector operates under a regulated supply management system, the U.S. government’s support for its dairy farmers is less direct.

    Support, in its various forms, equaled 73 percent of U.S. dairy farmers’ market returns in 2015, according to a report published by a Canadian trade consulting firm on Thursday.

    The 588-page study by Grey, Clark, Shih and Associates — commissioned by Dairy Farmers of Canada (DFC) — says the American government contributed around $22.2 billion in direct and indirect subsidies to the dairy sector in 2015.

    “The support is completely ignored,” he said. “When it comes to farm support, the U.S. has the deepest pockets; deeper even than the European Union. Our study provides detail nationally, and on a state basis, the losses to U.S. dairy farmers. USDA data reveals that for more than a decade, U.S. farm gate prices for milk fail to cover costs of production.”

    Based solely on the USDA’s national average farm-gate price and national average costs of production, Clark says American dairy farmers lost money every year from 2005 to 2016.

    The report figures support granted to U.S. dairy farmers in 2015 represented approximately C$0.35 per litre — almost three-quarters of producers’ revenue.
    When you subsidize things, you tend to get too much of it.

    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/go...ers-2017-05-21

    Got Milk? Too much of it, say U.S. dairy farmers

    U.S. dairy farmers' big bet on global demand for milk is souring.

    The industry was in trouble long before a trade squabble with Canada last month that reduced demand for ultrafiltered milk, a cheese ingredient. Dairy farmers fear a spat that has jeopardized roughly $150 million in sales for Wisconsin, New York and Minnesota producers is just a prelude to disruptions to come if President Donald Trump renegotiates the North American Free Trade Agreement as promised.

    "There was a perfect storm," said Jaime Castaneda, senior vice president of trade policy at the National Milk Producers Federation.

    Dairy farmers aggressively expanded their herds three years ago when milk prices were driven up by growing demand from middle-class consumers in North America, Asia and other markets. By March, there were 9.4 million commercial dairy cows in the U.S., a 20-year high, according to the Agriculture Department.

    But China, Russia, Venezuela and other importers scaled back their dairy purchasing in recent years due to domestic troubles. The European Union, meanwhile, greatly increased its dairy production after lifting 30-year-old quotas in 2015. Then came a world-wide surge in agricultural production that has pushed down prices for grains and meat as well as for dairy.

    The dollar has also been on a multiyear climb, making U.S. exports less competitive. Milk prices have plummeted by a third in the past two years, USDA data shows. The value of U.S. dairy exports fell to $4.8 billion last year, down 50% from 2014.

    Milk prices in March stood at $17.30 per hundred pounds, the USDA said, down $1.20 from a month earlier. That industry benchmark is an average of prices farmers receive and is based on a variety of dairy products including butter, cheese and skim milk powder.

    Commodities markets like dairy are prone to booms and busts because of the long lead time to ramp up supply. But the current glut -- and the accompanying downswing in exports -- may pose one of the biggest challenges yet to the U.S. dairy industry.

    "A lot relies on exports, and that's why swings are such a big deal," said Ben Laine, an economist at CoBank Acb, an agriculture cooperative bank. "That's where any surplus goes."

    The glut is likely to grow this spring, the most productive time of the year as temperatures rise and days grow longer. An unusually mild winter started this year's milking season months early at some dairies, further contributing to the milk crush.

    "You can't turn the cows off," said Ken Nobis, president of a dairy cooperative in Michigan, where the busy season started three months early.
    Meanwhile, U.S. dairy products are piling up. The U.S. has more than 800 million pounds of American cheese in reserve, the most since 1984, according to the USDA. The amount of butter in reserve totals 272 million pounds, the most since 1994. Some U.S. farmers are dumping millions of pounds of excess milk onto fields. In the Midwest and Northeast, nearly 78 million gallons of milk have been dumped so far this year, up 86% from the same period last year.

    Lawmakers from Wisconsin and New York are asking the USDA to buy excess cheese again. Last year the agency spent $20 million to purchase cheese from private inventories for food banks and pantries.

    The USDA already spent all authorized funds to buy up excess dairy this fiscal year, but the new request is under consideration, an agency spokeswoman said.

  6. #5
    Maybe we should try what DJTvsg suggested and end all tariffs, barriers and subsidies.
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankind…it’s people I can’t stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment

  7. #6
    W/o the need for a long-winded rebuttal rant, the point is to make the trade sequence a lot more fair and threatening tariffs to reduce tariffs worked on China. On the domestic front, supply and demand is gonna dictate the profits. I've never been a fan of these farmers' associations that love their subsidies.

  8. #7
    Quote Originally Posted by Zippyjuan View Post

    When you subsidize things, you tend to get too much of it.
    This much is true.

    Don't need a weather man to know which way the wind blows

  9. #8
    Politically, ending farm subsidies would cause large amounts of dairies (and other farmers who supply their feed) to go out of business but then supply would shrink and consumers would face higher prices for dairy products. It could mean shortages of dairy during drought years (and again higher prices in response to that scarcity).



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  11. #9
    I support abolishing the USDA and subsidies .

  12. #10
    Quote Originally Posted by Zippyjuan View Post
    Politically, ending farm subsidies would cause large amounts of dairies (and other farmers who supply their feed) to go out of business but then supply would shrink and consumers would face higher prices for dairy products. It could mean shortages of dairy during drought years (and again higher prices in response to that scarcity).
    Your kind always claims the sky will fall if the market is allowed to work.
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankind…it’s people I can’t stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment

  13. #11
    Quote Originally Posted by Swordsmyth View Post
    Your kind always claims the sky will fall if the market is allowed to work.
    Protecting these over-producing dairy farms is exactly why Trump says he want to impose more tariffs on Canada. It is a matter of "national security". (The president would need Congress to approve any tariffs unless he uses that claim of national security).

  14. #12
    Quote Originally Posted by Zippyjuan View Post
    Protecting these over-producing dairy farms is exactly why Trump says he want to impose more tariffs on Canada. It is a matter of "national security". (The president would need Congress to approve any tariffs unless he uses that claim of national security).
    Then why did he suggest ending subsidies?
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankind…it’s people I can’t stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment

  15. #13
    Quote Originally Posted by Swordsmyth View Post
    Then why did he suggest ending subsidies?
    Trump says a lot of things which contradict previous statements.

  16. #14
    Quote Originally Posted by oyarde View Post
    I support abolishing the USDA and subsidies .
    Abolishing subsidies would end the economy as we know it.

  17. #15
    Quote Originally Posted by Zippyjuan View Post
    Trump says a lot of things which contradict previous statements.
    And you are incapable of understanding the method to his madness.
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankind…it’s people I can’t stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment

  18. #16
    Quote Originally Posted by timosman View Post
    Abolishing subsidies would end the economy as we know it.
    Would not bother me a bit .
    Do something Danke



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  20. #17
    Quote Originally Posted by Zippyjuan View Post
    Protecting these over-producing dairy farms is exactly why Trump says he want to impose more tariffs on Canada. It is a matter of "national security". (The president would need Congress to approve any tariffs unless he uses that claim of national security).
    The Financial times advocates free markets and is in favour of globalisation. They should love Trump.

    Trump said his ultimate goal was the elimination of all trade duties.
    "Ultimately that's what you want," he said. "You want a tariff free. You want no barriers. And you want no subsidies. Because you have some cases where countries are subsidizing industries and that's not fair."
    https://www.cnn.com/2018/06/09/polit...ade/index.html

    This is called bargaining from a position of superiority.

    "I will always protect Canadian workers and Canadian interests," Trudeau said.
    When Trudeau says it the progressives salivate at his leadership abilities. When Trump does it WRT American workers and Americans interests he's a nationalist fascist. Lol.

  21. #18
    I support abolishing the USDA and all subsidies . The free market will determine the real value of a gallon of milk , raisins etc Overproduction will be halted and there will be more diversity .
    Do something Danke

  22. #19
    Quote Originally Posted by Swordsmyth View Post
    And you are incapable of understanding the method to his madness.
    "Over promise, under deliver".

  23. #20
    Quote Originally Posted by phill4paul View Post
    The Financial times advocates free markets and is in favour of globalisation. They should love Trump.


    And you want no subsidies. Because you have some cases where countries are subsidizing industries and that's not fair."
    Noting that Trump has not called for ending any subsidies to US industries. Only foreigners.

    He also once said the US should not tell other countries what to do. He actually said he supported the idea of other countries protecting their industries- just this week. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/...=.0bef056c0086

    So I don't blame them. I blame our leaders. In fact, I congratulate the leaders of other countries for so crazily being able to make these trade deals that were so good for their country and so bad for the United States.
    and that was in the same speech criticizing Canada for protecting their dairy industry.
    Last edited by Zippyjuan; 06-11-2018 at 03:57 PM.

  24. #21
    This canadian aggression should not be stood for . We can just annex it and make it like puerto rico.
    Do something Danke

  25. #22
    Quote Originally Posted by Zippyjuan View Post
    "Over promise, under deliver".
    Quote Originally Posted by Zippyjuan View Post
    Noting that Trump has not called for ending any subsidies to US industries. Only foreigners.

    He also once said the US should not tell other countries what to do. He actually said he supported the idea of other countries protecting their industries- just this week. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/...=.0bef056c0086



    and that was in the same speech criticizing Canada for protecting their dairy industry.


    You don't have to keep proving your incapacity to understand, everyone is already aware of it.
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankind…it’s people I can’t stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment

  26. #23
    Quote Originally Posted by Zippyjuan View Post
    Noting that Trump has not called for ending any subsidies to US industries. Only foreigners.

    He also once said the US should not tell other countries what to do. He actually said he supported the idea of other countries protecting their industries- just this week. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/...=.0bef056c0086



    and that was in the same speech criticizing Canada for protecting their dairy industry.
    Umm, that's NOT supporting them. That's CONGRATULATING them for taking advantage all these years. Something he intends to end. He may, he may not get something done, but at least it's a hell of a lot better than the progressive mentality of "Those jobs are gone." But, whatev's, dude. Carry on.

  27. #24
    Quote Originally Posted by phill4paul View Post
    Umm, that's NOT supporting them. That's CONGRATULATING them for taking advantage all these years. Something he intends to end. He may, he may not get something done, but at least it's a hell of a lot better than the progressive mentality of "Those jobs are gone." But, whatev's, dude. Carry on.
    Tariffs ARE subsidies (indirect) which protect particular industries. Trump loves them. He is going to protect the steel industry. He is going to protect the coal industry. He is going to protect the dairy industry. They are also all industries facing lower demand for their output globally combined with global over-production and higher automation which all mean lost jobs within them. Yes, quite a few of those jobs are gone forever. "Tariff wars are good!"
    Last edited by Zippyjuan; 06-11-2018 at 04:12 PM.



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  29. #25
    Quote Originally Posted by Swordsmyth View Post
    Maybe we should try what DJTvsg suggested and end all tariffs, barriers and subsidies.
    Hopefully Trump will actually do that, and not wait for some other countries to do it first before he does.

  30. #26
    Quote Originally Posted by phill4paul View Post
    Umm, that's NOT supporting them. That's CONGRATULATING them for taking advantage all these years. Something he intends to end. He may, he may not get something done, but at least it's a hell of a lot better than the progressive mentality of "Those jobs are gone." But, whatev's, dude. Carry on.
    What progressive mentality? And what jobs?

    And please tell me you're not siding with Trump in congratulating foreign regimes for doing something that hurts their own people like imposing tariffs on them.

    Taking advantage? This kind of talk going on in this forum is surreal.

  31. #27
    Quote Originally Posted by Superfluous Man View Post
    Hopefully Trump will actually do that, and not wait for some other countries to do it first before he does.
    Maybe it would be best to negotiate a deal for everyone to do it.
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankind…it’s people I can’t stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment

  32. #28
    Quote Originally Posted by Zippyjuan View Post
    Tariffs ARE subsidies which protect particular industries. Trump loves them. He is going to protect the steel industry. He is going to protect the coal industry. He is going to protect the dairy industry.
    Unless others agree to a free market. He's using the U.S. ability, as a consumer nation, to bargain from a position of power. Nothing wrong with that.

  33. #29
    Quote Originally Posted by phill4paul View Post
    Unless others agree to a free market. He's using the U.S. ability, as a consumer nation, to bargain from a position of power. Nothing wrong with that.
    There are other effects of tariffs. A tariff on steel adds costs to industries who use steel to make products. They must either raise their prices or reduce labor (cut jobs). More companies use steel than produce it so the lost jobs could be greater than the jobs saved. If we impose tariffs on one country, they respond by putting tariffs on industries in our country- costing jobs in those industries.

  34. #30
    Quote Originally Posted by Superfluous Man View Post
    What progressive mentality? And what jobs?

    And please tell me you're not siding with Trump in congratulating foreign regimes for doing something that hurts their own people like imposing tariffs on them.

    Taking advantage? This kind of talk going on in this forum is surreal.
    He's congratulating them on taking advantage of trade deals where America runs a deficit with their countries. The United States has the world's largest trade deficit. It's been that way since Gerald Ford. It's time that ended.

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