Most of the debate regardingglobal warmingclimate change revolves around the physical science.
...i.e. what exactly is happening or likely to happen with the climate.
The economic consequences of various emission-reduction plans get much less attention.
The paper linked below addresses that neglected area.
http://climatechangereconsidered.org...ysis-final.pdf
Excerpt from the conclusion:
A particularly egregious example of inefficiency:Cost-benefit analyses conducted for this chapter and summarized in Figure 8.4.3.1 show the IPCC’s own cost and benefit estimates put the cost of restricting the use of fossil fuels at approximately 6.8 times greater than the benefits. Replacing the IPCC’s unrealistically low cost estimate with ones originally produced by Bezdek (2014, 2015) and updated for this chapter show reducing the use of fossil fuels costs between 32 and 48 times as much as the IPCC’s estimate of the benefits of a slightly cooler world. If renewable energy sources are unable to entirely replace fossil fuels, the cost could soar to 162 times the possible benefit. The ratio of Bezdek’s cost estimate per ton of CO2 eqand the SCC produced by the Interagency Working Groupin2015 is 73:1 for fossil fuel used in 2010 and 79:1 for fossil fuels used in 2050: the cost of stopping climate change by restricting the use of fossil fuels would be 73 to 79 times greater than the benefits, and this assumes there are benefits.
In short, even if the warming narrative is more or less correct, the rational course of action is in fact to do nothing.In the United States, the state of Maryland’s government decided that from 2011 to 2050 it would reduce its CO2 emissions by 90% at a discounted cost of $7.3tn, about three times the discounted cost of the rejected national cap-and-tax scheme over the same period. The reduction would have amounted to 1.5% of national emissions, which are 17% of global emissions. Therefore, the fraction of global emissions abated is 0.0025. The predicted business-as-usual CO2 concentration of 507.55 ppmv would fall to 507.25 ppmv. Radiative forcing abated is less than 0.003Wm−2, and warming abated is 0.001K. The unit mitigation cost is $7.3 quadrillion. The cost of abating the predicted 0.44K global warming over the period is $3 quadrillion, or $320,000 per head of global population, or well more than 500% of global GDP over the period. Attempted mitigation by measures as costly as Maryland’s scheme would be 1150 times costlier than inaction today and adaptation later.
Site Information
About Us
- RonPaulForums.com is an independent grassroots outfit not officially connected to Ron Paul but dedicated to his mission. For more information see our Mission Statement.
Connect With Us