Latest CNN Poll - Independents Moving to Republicans

[AgentPaul001]

Hey guys,

The latest CNN Poll to come out (article is about a half hour old) says the following...

Crucial to the outcome in New Hampshire are the state's independent voters, who make up around 40 percent of the electorate, and who can vote in either party's primary. The poll indicates that a growing number of registered Independents say they will vote in the GOP contest, which is a switch from just a month ago.

Only Paul & McCain have the power to draw candidates over and perhaps Huckabust with his populist rhetoric.

A good independent turnout can win this for Paul. We are at 10% in this Sunday Poll by CNN (although it doesn't state when it was done) with REPUBLICANS (Zero independents). And margin of error is a whopping 5% lol.

We are currently polling around 29% with Independents....if we can get a good turnout and hold or improve our numbers we honestly have a shot at first place.

[Give me liberty]

Good news so far.

[kushaze]

It might backfire on Obama being so far in the lead in NH as far as independents go (they might think Obama already has it in the bag). Independents that would vote for Obama wouldn't vote for McCain (McCain is pro-war and most who vote for Obama think Obama is anti-war), so hopefully they are going to vote for Ron Paul.

[ItsTime]

That poll surprises me. To me, on the ground, it looks like Indies are going dem this year. Backing Obama. Then the Indies that would have voted R anyway are going to Paul and McCain

[colecrowe]

Full Poll pdf:

http://www.unh.edu/survey-center/new...pprim10608.pdf

DURHAM, NH – John McCain is holding on to his lead over Mitt Romney in New Hampshire.
These findings are based on the latest CNN / WMUR New Hampshire Primary Tracking Poll* conducted by the
University of New Hampshire Survey Center. Two hundred sixty-eight (268) randomly selected likely New Hampshire
Republican primary voters were interviewed by telephone between January 5 and 3 p.m., January 6, 2008. The margin of
sampling error is +/- 6%.
With two days left until the New Hampshire Primary, Arizona Senator John McCain is holding on to his lead over
Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney. Currently, 32% favor McCain, 26% favor Romney, followed by former Arkansas
Governor Mike Huckabee (14%), former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani (11%), Texas Congressman Ron Paul (10%),
former Tennessee Senator Fred Thompson (1%), California Congressman Duncan Hunter (1%), some other candidate
(2%), and 5% are undecided.
But this race is still very much in flux. Only 42% of likely Republican primary voters say they have definitely decided
who they will vote for, 30% are leaning toward a candidate, and 28% are still trying to make up their mind. McCain leads
Romney among those voters who say they have definitely decided by a 36% to 25% margin.

Undeclared Voters
Undeclared voters, often referred to as Independents, can vote in either the Democratic or Republican primary. Currently,
51% of undeclared voters say they plan to vote in the Democratic primary. Among those undeclared voters who say they
will vote in the Republican primary, 34% say they plan to vote for McCain, 21% favor Romney, 13% favor Giuliani, 13%
favor Paul, and 13% favor Huckabee.

But according to this latest poll, 63% of the Republican primary electorate will be made up of registered Republicans.
Among registered Republicans, McCain holds a narrow lead over Romney. Thirty-one percent of registered Republicans
favor McCain, 29% favor Romney, 13% prefer Huckabee, 9% favor Giuliani, and 7% favor Paul.

Candidate Qualities
Likely Republican primary voters were asked several questions about characteristics of the Republican candidates. While
McCain has improved on this measure on recent weeks, he has not managed to pull away from Romney as the most
electable candidate. Currently, 32% think McCain has the best chance of beating the Democrat in November, 33% think
Romney has the best chance, followed by Giuliani (12%), Huckabee (7%) and Paul (4%).
McCain is seen as the candidate with the right experience to be president, named by 40% of likely Republican primary
voters, followed by Romney (26%), Giuliani (13%), Paul (7%), and Huckabee (5%).
McCain (32%) is viewed as the candidate who best represents voters like themselves, followed by Romney (27%),
Huckabee (13%), Giuliani (10%), and Paul (10%).
Romney and McCain are tied as the candidates best able to bring needed change to the U.S., each named by 24% of likely
Republican primary voters, followed by Paul (13%), Huckabee (13%), and Giuliani (11%).
Finally, McCain is seen as the most inspiring candidate, named by 26% of Republicans, followed by Huckabee (18%),
Romney (17%), Giuliani (14%), and Paul %).

A Mormon for President?
The issue of religion has recently factored into the Republican race. When asked if the country is ready to elect a
Mormon president, 61% said the country is ready, 25% think the country is not ready, and 14% are not sure. Giuliani
supporters are most likely to say the country is not ready to elect a Mormon.

CNN / WMUR NH Primary Poll Methodology
The CNN / WMUR New Hampshire Primary Tracking Poll is conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey
Center. Two hundred sixty-eight (268) randomly selected likely New Hampshire Republican primary voters were
interviewed by telephone between January 5 and 3 p.m., January 6, 2008. The margin of sampling error is +/- 6%.
Results reported for other subgroups have potential for somewhat larger variation than those for the entire population.
The data have been weighted to adjust for numbers of voters and telephone lines within households, respondent sex, and
region of the state. In addition to potential sampling error, all surveys have other potential sources of non-sampling error
including question order effects, question wording effects, and non-response.