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Thread: Paul is the Black Swan.

  1. #1

    Paul is the Black Swan.

    The Black Swan cometh... today.

    "Taleb's Black Swan has a central and unique attribute: the high impact. His claim is that almost all consequential events in history come from the unexpected—while humans convince themselves that these events are explainable in hindsight."

    "Before the discovery of Australia, people in the old world were convinced that all swans were white, an unassailable belief as it seemed completely confirmed by empirical evidence...
    It illustrates a severe limitation to our learning from observations or experience and the fragility of our knowledge. One single observation can invalidate a general statement derived from millennia of confirmatory sightings of millions of white swans. All you need is one single (and, I am told, quite ugly) black bird."

    What we call here a Black Swan (and capitalize it) is an event with the following three attributes.

    First, it is an outlier, as it lies outside the realm of regular expectations, because nothing in the past can convincingly point to its possibility.

    Second, it carries an extreme impact.

    Third, in spite of its outlier status, human nature makes us concoct explanations for its occurrence after the fact, making it explainable and predictable.

    "Much of what happens in history", he notes, "comes from 'Black Swan dynamics', very large, sudden, and totally unpredictable 'outliers', while much of what we usually talk about is almost pure noise. Our track record in predicting those events is dismal; "

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  3. #2

    let us do this in the name of liberty.

    Let us make Paul the Black Swan of U.S. Politics today.
    He CAN win with your help.

    Paul will upset all republicans and win with a large independent turnout.

    We have 1,000s of supporters to do this, call people in IOWA, speak to them about Paul.

    Today, Make Paul the Black Swan
    Pass it on.

  4. #3
    Read the book by John Robb called "A Brave New War, the coming wave of new terrorism".

    Basically a whole entire book talking about Black Swan Events and how they completely change the paradigm of entire country's.

    Without a doubt Ron Paul and OUR movement is a Black Swan event. We are engaging in textbook FOURTH GENERATIONAL warfare right now.

    Read the book and you'll understand what I'm talking about.


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