What will happen with spending under Trump?

[Madison320]

If you watched the Rogan interview with Elon Musk he talked about what I think is the biggest problem and that's the debt, specifically the interest on the debt which is skyrocketing and now taking up around 20-25% of all tax revenue. Normally when a new party takes over with all 3 branches they go on a huge spending spree. Do you think that's going to happen this time?

[Snowball]

Spending is highly likely to fall.

[Invisible Man]

We already know the answer to this from his previous tenure in the WH. It will go up dramatically.

[PAF]

Not everything has been published yet, but from what has been proposed so far, and how he plans to do what he wants to do is not going to be cheap, not by any stretch of the imagination. So, we shall see, won't we? But, by that time, it will be "Biden's fault" [again].

TPTB and mega donors certainly didn't push him across the finish line for nothing.

Ron Paul: "Those tempted to blame the increases on President Biden, the Democratic Congress, or the Covid-related spending spree should consider the debt increase by around $1 Trillion a year in 2017, and 2018, years when the Republicans controlled the White House and both houses of Congress."

[Matt Collins]

It will increase as it always does.

[Madison320]

We already know the answer to this from his previous tenure in the WH. It will go up dramatically.

That's what I'm expecting. I'm wondering if guys talking about cuts like Musk and RFK will be part of the administration and ignored? Or just not part of it at all?

We probably won't have to wait vey long to get answer. The big spending wish list seems to be the first thing they do.

[TheTexan]

It will increase as it always does.

This is the only constant that we can really rely on

[CaptUSA]

[Madison320]

Ha Ha! It would be even better with a Space X rocket.

[Madison320]

It will increase as it always does.

If they increase spending at anywhere near the same rate as Trump's first term, I'm putting the odds of double digit price inflation at 90% before the end of his term.

[spudea]

He will propose significant domestic spending cuts. Democrats will filibuster and call him heartless and evil. I don't expect military cuts, but the key difference from last administration is the Afghanistan war is over, so that should allow for lower military spending.

[PAF]

He will propose significant domestic spending cuts. Democrats will filibuster and call him heartless and evil. I don't expect military cuts, but the key difference from last administration is the Afghanistan war is over, so that should allow for lower military spending.

Trump has already committed to: "I will provide record funding for our military"

[CaptUSA]

Ha Ha! It would be even better with a Space X rocket.

Was thinking this!

[Voluntarist]

He will propose significant domestic spending cuts. Democrats will filibuster and call him heartless and evil. I don't expect military cuts, but the key difference from last administration is the Afghanistan war is over, so that should allow for lower military spending.

It appears to be permissible, by Congressional rules, to implement cuts via the reconciliation process. That would only require approval by simple majority vote in both houses. That said, when a single party has control of both houses of Congress is when Primadonnas start crawling out of the woodwork and gumming up the works. Think back to when the Republicans had control of the Presidency and both houses of Congress and did away with Obamacare (yeah, that worked well).

[PAF]

It appears to be permissible, by Congressional rules, to implement cuts via the reconciliation process. That would only require approval by simple majority vote in both houses. That said, when a single party has control of both houses of Congress is when Primadonnas start crawling out of the woodwork and gumming up the works. Think back to when the Republicans had control of the Presidency and both houses of Congress and did away with Obamacare (yeah, that worked well).

Also keep in mind that technocratic and AI warfare is the new agenda, Peter Thiel and others seem to be part of those negotiations.

[GlennwaldSnowdenAssanged]

It will drop.
Expect to see Trump use VETO power too.

[PAF]

It will drop.
Expect to see Trump use VETO power too.

Sure, tell that to Miriam Adelson and Peter Thiel

Trump: "I will provide record funding for our military"

[Voluntarist]

Also keep in mind that technocratic and AI warfare is the new agenda, Peter Thiel and others seem to be part of those negotiations.

And there's also mandatory vs. discretionary spending. Only Discretionary spending can be worked through reconciliation. Mandatory spending accounts for nearly 2/3 of federal spending. The largest components of mandatory spending are Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid. Other programs, such as unemployment insurance and food assistance, also fall under this category

[Occam's Banana]

It will increase, of course. [1]

The only question is: by how much?

Given that POTUS, House, & Senate will be under one party, the answer is: probably quite a lot.



[1] And always keep in mind that when politicians, bureaucrats, and media/opinion hacks talk about spending "cuts", what they typically mean is not "reductions in spending". What they actually mean is "increases in spending that are not quite as large as the previous increases".

[PAF]

It will increase, of course. [1]

The only question is: by how much?

Given that POTUS, House, & Senate will be under one party, the answer is: probably quite a lot.



[1] And always keep in mind that when politicians, bureaucrats, and media/opinion hacks talk about spending "cuts", what they mean is not "reductions in spending". What they actually mean is "increases in spending that are not quite as large as the previous increases".

Because with the advancement of technology [technocratic AI and other] they can make/build/deploy 3 times the amount for a net $10 less than the last time which still won't save me dime. Hell even a nickel. Or even a single satoshi.

[otherone]

Trump has already committed to: "I will provide record funding for our military"

With his tariffs, he'll need it. And his support among young men will ensure he'll have the bodies to back his tariffs. I don't foresee many pride flags on planes anymore.

[PAF]

@Voluntarist can you link to that graph? I want to look a that site so that I can cross reference some stuff.

[Madison320]

@Voluntarist can you link to that graph? I want to look a that site so that I can cross reference some stuff.

If the source is the COB you'll have to double, maybe triple the estimates. I don't know why people even quote them since they are historically on record as being so far off.

[Voluntarist]

@Voluntarist can you link to that graph? I want to look a that site so that I can cross reference some stuff.

Sure thing; that's out of An Update to the Budget and Economic Outlook: 2024 to 2034 (dated June 2024) which was put out by the Congressional Budget Office. Search that document for the heading "The Budget Outlook, by Fiscal Year".

Elon Musk was advertising that he'd cut $2 trillion from the budget. But if you look at the discretionary spending for the years 2023, 2024 and 2025 in that chart, you'll see that he doesn't have any more than $1.832 trillion in discretionary spending in any of those years to cut from. So I'm guessing he's not really talking about cutting $2 trillion from a single year; and is instead going by the old standby of cutting $2 trillion from the budget over the next decade (with the bulk of the cuts being in years 8 through 10 - which, of course, we'll never see).

[PAF]

Sure thing; that's out of An Update to the Budget and Economic Outlook: 2024 to 2034 (dated June 2024) which was put out by the Congressional Budget Office. Search that document for the heading "The Budget Outlook, by Fiscal Year".

Elon Musk was advertising that he'd cut $2 trillion from the budget. But if you look at the discretionary spending for the years 2023, 2034 and 2035 in that chart, you'll see that he doesn't have any more than $1.832 trillion in discretionary spending in any of those years to cut from. So I'm guessing he's not really talking about cutting $2 trillion from a single year; and is instead going by the old standby of cutting $2 trillion from the budget over the next decade (with the bulk of the cuts being in years 8 through 10 - which, of course, we'll never see).

Thanks, that's what I typically reference.

[Swordsmyth]

With his tariffs, he'll need it. And his support among young men will ensure he'll have the bodies to back his tariffs. I don't foresee many pride flags on planes anymore.

Tariffs avoid wars, free trade causes them.

[Swordsmyth]

Trump will slash it to the bone, he's going to use Impoundment.

[PAF]

Trump will slash it to the bone, he's going to use Impoundment.

So that's why he wants to tax, fine and sue private donors to fund his nationalized American University? Got it

Next question is, how is he going to pay for his federally funded nationalized militarized LEO with immunity?

[Matt Collins]

Tariffs avoid wars, free trade causes them.

This statement is the height of economic and geopolitical ignorance.

[Swordsmyth]

This statement is the height of economic and geopolitical ignorance.

Nope.
Last time we had this argument I and the Texican produced copious historical proof.
None has ever been supplied for the opposite thesis.