My research now indicates Trump will win PA and another term in office.

[Snowball]

I want to make something clear because we are mostly all friends here and although nobody agrees on everything which is impossible, and the forum has been through various incarnations, and there are sometimes uncomfortable topics, as Americans, we really only have one choice in this election, and it is Donald Trump. I see no reason for myself to outline the various disagreements on policy I have with him, and I don't harp on about them, because it really doesn't matter when the alternative is SO HORRENDOUS that it would be suicidal for the country and normal people who live in it.*

Trump has to win, then the chips fall where they may. Whatever happens, happens.*
I now expect Trump to win. I had previously thought Harris might eke it out, but I don't anymore. She is an*utterly uncharismatic and idiotic candidate with no business even being nominated. Enthusiasm for her, even among sane Democrats is lower than any of their candidates in living memory.*

Still, it comes down to state elections and the under-the-rug machinations of vote-counting,court challenges and election integrity, of course, but here's why I expect Trump to win: Pennsylvania. Josh Shapiro is a Democrat, but he felt snubbed by Harris and although he's rather new, he is one of the rising leaders in the party nationally. Shapiro is Jewish and of the very Pro-Israel variety. When I say Pro-Israel I mean connected with Zionist Lobby and ON BOARD with everything that's happened in the last year. Other Jews of the liberal variety are not, but he is.*

So. PA is the most important state in this election. It's a state where if Harris won, her road becomes much easier, and likely to win. BUT - in order to win PA, she needs active, not just passive, help from the Governor and Secretary of State. Although both are Jews,*Schmidt is a Republican, appointed by a Democrat. (PA Gov appoints SoS, unlike most, with assembly confirmation) - Schmidt is not, for some reason, written of as being Jewish, but he is. He earned his Phd*from Brandeis with many fellowships and grants, studying SS generals in Bohemia and psychohistory. While only in his late 20's, he was an analyst for*President Clinton's Commission on Holocaust Assets in the United States which was completed in 2000. He went immediately on to the GAO and had Top Secret clearance in some matters. Then, he defeated (as an outsider, not approved by the PA GOP) 4-time incumbent Joseph Duda for the lone Republican (mandated) Philly commisioner seat (Philadelpha has four commissioners), then the Committee of Seventy, then appointed by Shapiro to be Secretary of State (despite being a Republican).*

Trump has been VERY VOCAL (see links for references on my post but there are many more available) - attempting to hold BOTH Shapiro and Schmidt accountable (while respecting Schmidt's inentional ambiguity) Trump pulls no punches calling them out and it is personal but now Shapiro is acting more conciliatory and denouncing Biden's "garbage" comment. It's a big situateion but I think Shapiro feels kind of snubbed by Harris when some thought he was VP material already -- and Harris perhaps "caved" to her "anti-Israeli" wing, as it was Shapiro who was most vocal in his support of what Israel's been doing this year.

bottom line: Who runs the election can impact the outcome especially in PA which is SO KEY, and it appears the more influential rabbis are backing Trump, as is Israel.*I expect Shapiro and Schmidt to yield to pressure by the Israeli Lobby. The honey for Shapiro is that he rises as a countervoice in the Democrat Party also, with Trump in office again, Shapiro can play up his beefs with Trump and rise politically, while in truth, it's going to be their staunch commitment to the Israeli Lobby that ensures Trump a fair shot at winning Pennsylvania this time. Which I expect to happen, and Schmidt and Shapiro have the ability to do that in the Philadelphia metro which is where all the shenanigans must take place in order for Harris to "win", it won't happen - and Trump takes PA.

references:
https://www.jta.org/2024/08/22/polit...sessed-with-me
https://www.jta.org/2024/11/01/polit...and-for-israel
https://whyy.org/articles/phillys-on...ernment-group/
https://smartvoter.org/2009/11/03/pa...idt_a/bio.html
https://www.brandeis.edu/magazine/20.../GRD2000s.html
https://www.pa.gov/en/governor/meet-...l-schmidt.html

[Invisible Man]

I see four states that are tossups in the polls: Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Nevada. If all of the other states go to the candidate they're leaning to in the polls, then I think Harris needs to win all four of those tossups. Other than that, if she loses any one of them, then she would need to win another state that is more decidedly leaning to Trump.

If polls are undercounting Trump support, like they did in '16 and '20, then Harris loses. It's possible that pollsters have made corrections to some of their errors in those years and have more accurate polls this time, in which case Harris has a narrow chance, but the odds are against her.

[jmdrake]

I want to make something clear because we are mostly all friends here and although nobody agrees on everything which is impossible, and the forum has been through various incarnations, and there are sometimes uncomfortable topics, as Americans, we really only have one choice in this election, and it is Donald Trump. I see no reason for myself to outline the various disagreements on policy I have with him, and I don't harp on about them, because it really doesn't matter when the alternative is SO HORRENDOUS that it would be suicidal for the country and normal people who live in it.*

Trump has to win, then the chips fall where they may. Whatever happens, happens.*
I now expect Trump to win. I had previously thought Harris might eke it out, but I don't anymore. She is an*utterly uncharismatic and idiotic candidate with no business even being nominated. Enthusiasm for her, even among sane Democrats is lower than any of their candidates in living memory.*

Still, it comes down to state elections and the under-the-rug machinations of vote-counting,court challenges and election integrity, of course, but here's why I expect Trump to win: Pennsylvania. Josh Shapiro is a Democrat, but he felt snubbed by Harris and although he's rather new, he is one of the rising leaders in the party nationally. Shapiro is Jewish and of the very Pro-Israel variety. When I say Pro-Israel I mean connected with Zionist Lobby and ON BOARD with everything that's happened in the last year. Other Jews of the liberal variety are not, but he is.*

So. PA is the most important state in this election. It's a state where if Harris won, her road becomes much easier, and likely to win. BUT - in order to win PA, she needs active, not just passive, help from the Governor and Secretary of State. Although both are Jews,*Schmidt is a Republican, appointed by a Democrat. (PA Gov appoints SoS, unlike most, with assembly confirmation) - Schmidt is not, for some reason, written of as being Jewish, but he is. He earned his Phd*from Brandeis with many fellowships and grants, studying SS generals in Bohemia and psychohistory. While only in his late 20's, he was an analyst for*President Clinton's Commission on Holocaust Assets in the United States which was completed in 2000. He went immediately on to the GAO and had Top Secret clearance in some matters. Then, he defeated (as an outsider, not approved by the PA GOP) 4-time incumbent Joseph Duda for the lone Republican (mandated) Philly commisioner seat (Philadelpha has four commissioners), then the Committee of Seventy, then appointed by Shapiro to be Secretary of State (despite being a Republican).*

Trump has been VERY VOCAL (see links for references on my post but there are many more available) - attempting to hold BOTH Shapiro and Schmidt accountable (while respecting Schmidt's inentional ambiguity) Trump pulls no punches calling them out and it is personal but now Shapiro is acting more conciliatory and denouncing Biden's "garbage" comment. It's a big situateion but I think Shapiro feels kind of snubbed by Harris when some thought he was VP material already -- and Harris perhaps "caved" to her "anti-Israeli" wing, as it was Shapiro who was most vocal in his support of what Israel's been doing this year.

bottom line: Who runs the election can impact the outcome especially in PA which is SO KEY, and it appears the more influential rabbis are backing Trump, as is Israel.*I expect Shapiro and Schmidt to yield to pressure by the Israeli Lobby. The honey for Shapiro is that he rises as a countervoice in the Democrat Party also, with Trump in office again, Shapiro can play up his beefs with Trump and rise politically, while in truth, it's going to be their staunch commitment to the Israeli Lobby that ensures Trump a fair shot at winning Pennsylvania this time. Which I expect to happen, and Schmidt and Shapiro have the ability to do that in the Philadelphia metro which is where all the shenanigans must take place in order for Harris to "win", it won't happen - and Trump takes PA.

references:
https://www.jta.org/2024/08/22/polit...sessed-with-me
https://www.jta.org/2024/11/01/polit...and-for-israel
https://whyy.org/articles/phillys-on...ernment-group/
https://smartvoter.org/2009/11/03/pa...idt_a/bio.html
https://www.brandeis.edu/magazine/20.../GRD2000s.html
https://www.pa.gov/en/governor/meet-...l-schmidt.html

So....the Trump wins Pennsylvania because Zionists are running the election there? I think I'm going to throw up. I don't want either Trump or Harris to win. But right now I want Harris to lose more than I want Trump to lose. Some of her supporters are just plain bullies and worse in many ways than the MAGA supporters. But ^this pushes me back to the "IDGAF" camp.

[Snowball]

So....the Trump wins Pennsylvania because Zionists are running the election there? I think I'm going to throw up. I don't want either Trump or Harris to win. But right now I want Harris to lose more than I want Trump to lose. Some of her supporters are just plain bullies and worse in many ways than the MAGA supporters. But ^this pushes me back to the "IDGAF" camp.

There is no way for us to be happy with this election. I'm just calling it like I see it.

[CaptUSA]

If polls are undercounting Trump support, like they did in '16 and '20, then Harris loses. It's possible that pollsters have made corrections to some of their errors in those years and have more accurate polls this time, in which case Harris has a narrow chance, but the odds are against her.

Polls... I don't know why or how anyone still puts any weight on them whatsoever. In 2022, there was supposed to be a "red wave", but turned out to be a trickle. Many of the rule changes that were put in place in 2020 are still in place in 2024. Those rule changes heavily favor democrats and they had been trying to get them in place for decades.

To me, the real question is not how people feel or even who they will vote for. I think it's "is the level of support strong enough to overcome the 'irregularities'?"

[oyarde]

I would say if trump doesnt win Penn and Nevada it is an upset. Ive never given trump a big cance in Minn, Mi and Wi. Ill also point out if I know it so do dems in pilly .

[PAF]

So....the Trump wins Pennsylvania because Zionists are running the election there? I think I'm going to throw up. I don't want either Trump or Harris to win. But right now I want Harris to lose more than I want Trump to lose. Some of her supporters are just plain bullies and worse in many ways than the MAGA supporters. But ^this pushes me back to the "IDGAF" camp.

I actually take the opposite position.

I want some indication that fiscally conservative freedom-advocate republicans will under no circumstances be led further to the left with incredibly massive spending, government protectionism, militarized police-state, bait and switch "home schooling" with government oversight.

But, whatever. If after election-after-election republicans still have not learned, and want to be led by the noose by an "R" after his name, they will deserve everything that they get. I'll just have be extra careful when crossing the street so that I don't get my head bashed in without an opportunity to sue, even though my tax dollars "efficiently" paid for their pathetic Agenda47.

[Invisible Man]

Polls... I don't know why or how anyone still puts any weight on them whatsoever. In 2022, there was supposed to be a "red wave", but turned out to be a trickle. Many of the rule changes that were put in place in 2020 are still in place in 2024. Those rule changes heavily favor democrats and they had been trying to get them in place for decades.

To me, the real question is not how people feel or even who they will vote for. I think it's "is the level of support strong enough to overcome the 'irregularities'?"

I think generally speaking polls are valid. They just have to be used critically, with attention given to questions asked, who is being polled, methodologies, margins of error, and so on. Usually the poll results are boiled down to a headline that people uncritically run with.

[spudea]

Are the polls more accurate than previous years? Yeah probably. But I still think there is a missing Trump vote they fail to capture. This November 5th will certainly be one to remember.

[Snowball]

prediction:

Trump

Maine -1, NH, PA, OH, IN, WV, KY, TN, NC, SC, GA, FL, AL, MS, MO, IA, ND, SD, NE, KS, OK, TX, WY, ID, UT, AZ, AK

Total: 286

Harris

Maine - 3, VT, MA, RI, CT, NY, NJ, DE, DC, VA, IL, WI, MI, MN, CO, NM, CA, NV, OR, WA, HI

Total: 252

[jmdrake]

I actually take the opposite position.

I want some indication that fiscally conservative freedom-advocate republicans will under no circumstances be led further to the left with incredibly massive spending, government protectionism, militarized police-state, bait and switch "home schooling" with government oversight.

But, whatever. If after election-after-election republicans still have not learned, and want to be led by the noose by an "R" after his name, they will deserve everything that they get. I'll just have be extra careful when crossing the street so that I don't get my head bashed in without an opportunity to sue, even though my tax dollars "efficiently" paid for their pathetic Agenda47.

My situation is personal. I have had people who I considered to be my friends hurl all sorts of insults at me and even threatening to fight me (and this 'friend" is missing a foot and I have a BJJ blue belt and years of kickboxing experience) because I don't tow the party line. None of my friends who support Trump have acted that way. Granted my criticism of Trump hasn't been as harsh as what come from the media because that's absolute horseshyt. Even Bill Maher recently called out the left for falsely claiming Trump wanted to put Liz Cheney before a firing squad.

[PAF]

I actually take the opposite position.

I want some indication that fiscally conservative freedom-advocate republicans will under no circumstances be led further to the left with incredibly massive spending, government protectionism, militarized police-state, bait and switch "home schooling" with government oversight.

But, whatever. If after election-after-election republicans still have not learned, and want to be led by the noose by an "R" after his name, they will deserve everything that they get. I'll just have be extra careful when crossing the street so that I don't get my head bashed in without an opportunity to sue, even though my tax dollars "efficiently" paid for their pathetic Agenda47.

My situation is personal. I have had people who I considered to be my friends hurl all sorts of insults at me and even threatening to fight me (and this 'friend" is missing a foot and I have a BJJ blue belt and years of kickboxing experience) because I don't tow the party line. None of my friends who support Trump have acted that way. Granted my criticism of Trump hasn't been as harsh as what come from the media because that's absolute horseshyt. Even Bill Maher recently called out the left for falsely claiming Trump wanted to put Liz Cheney before a firing squad.

I don't pay attention to media entertainers and politician rhetoric, or what others around me say or don't.

I am strictly by-the-Record and policy driven.

[vita3]

My research tell me broccoll is good for you

[Invisible Man]

prediction:

Trump

Maine -1, NH, PA, OH, IN, WV, KY, TN, NC, SC, GA, FL, AL, MS, MO, IA, ND, SD, NE, KS, OK, TX, WY, ID, UT, AZ, AK

Total: 286

Harris

Maine - 3, VT, MA, RI, CT, NY, NJ, DE, DC, VA, IL, WI, MI, MN, CO, NM, CA, NV, OR, WA, HI

Total: 252

Looks reasonable. And if Trump loses PA but wins NV (or MI or WI), he still wins if all the other states on your lists stay the same.

[Snowball]

Looks reasonable. And if Trump loses PA but wins NV (or MI or WI), he still wins if all the other states on your lists stay the same.

Yes, but although Trump has a tight path even if he loses PA, I think PA is the dog whistle.

If the authorities are going to help Harris in PA, to me, it's an indication that they are also going to do it elsewhere in enough states for her to win.

I have a feeling PA won't be called into the late evening, the Dem machine looking for the votes they need out of Philly -- but ultimately being refused.

Then, he won't even need Arizona, New Hampshire, Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada or Virginia if he takes Missouri.
He can lose them all, and it will still be over.

Even if he loses Missouri (which would be a huge surprise), he just needs one of: Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin, Virginia.

So, expect much anxiety on the liberal networks, as they keep PA in the too-close camp all night hoping for the big drop that never comes, it will fall short and then the tears will start flowing.

[Invisible Man]

I have a feeling PA won't be called into the late evening

Will it even be called late in the evening? If it's close, they will have to wait to count the mail-in ballots.

[mtr1979]

prediction:

Trump

Maine -1, NH, PA, OH, IN, WV, KY, TN, NC, SC, GA, FL, AL, MS, MO, IA, ND, SD, NE, KS, OK, TX, WY, ID, UT, AZ, AK

Total: 286

Harris

Maine - 3, VT, MA, RI, CT, NY, NJ, DE, DC, VA, IL, WI, MI, MN, CO, NM, CA, NV, OR, WA, HI

Total: 252

Really you have Trump winning Arizona? What about the influx of people from California who bring their politics. The boomer+ community is getting old and dying. The math doesn't make sense to me with Trump winning Arizona. The transplants will overtake the boomer+ community.

[TheTexan]

I think Trump will win because Trump is a winner and only losers lose elections

[unknown]

They've been preparing us for the Steal to occur in PA followed by Michigan, tons of propaganda coming out of both these states.

[mtr1979]

I think Trump will win because Trump is a winner and only losers lose elections

Your boy Trump lost to a guy with dementia last time. How is he going to be at someone who can form sentences and the media is in love with?

[oyarde]

I think Trump will win because Trump is a winner and only losers lose elections

lol, if trump doesnt win 2024 will 2028 be 3rd loss ?

[Snowball]

Will it even be called late in the evening? If it's close, they will have to wait to count the mail-in ballots.

I think PA will be declared once they see Philly is nearly all reported and what's left is not going to be enough.
MI and WI can be projected for Harris but it won't matter. Arizona won't matter. New Hamphire won't even matter.
Trump would have 271 or 270 if he loses 1 in Nebraska. He's going to get 1 in Maine. They will have to call it.

[Invisible Man]

Really you have Trump winning Arizona? What about the influx of people from California who bring their politics. The boomer+ community is getting old and dying. The math doesn't make sense to me with Trump winning Arizona. The transplants will overtake the boomer+ community.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/pol...rump-vs-harris

[mtr1979]

https://www.realclearpolling.com/pol...rump-vs-harris

Whatever makes you feel good. Polls mean nothing it has already been decided for you. Harris will somehow magically pull out the victory and there is nothing you can do about it. You people on here really don't get it.

[Snowball]

Whatever makes you feel good. Polls mean nothing it has already been decided for you. Harris will somehow magically pull out the victory and there is nothing you can do about it. You people on here really don't get it.

Arizona won't even matter. Only Philly matters. That's where Team Blue goes down.

[mtr1979]

Arizona won't even matter. Only Philly matters. That's where Team Blue goes down.

So you fell for the misdirection. Everyone is focused on PA. I've done the math it doesn't matter if Harris wins AZ, MI, NC, GA.

[Snowball]

So you fell for the misdirection. Everyone is focused on PA. I've done the math it doesn't matter if Harris wins AZ, MI, NC, GA.

NC and GA are not going to Harris.

[mtr1979]

NC and GA are not going to Harris.

Ok I hope you are correct, but I have zero faith in the system.

[Anti Federalist]

prediction:

Trump

Maine -1, NH, PA, OH, IN, WV, KY, TN, NC, SC, GA, FL, AL, MS, MO, IA, ND, SD, NE, KS, OK, TX, WY, ID, UT, AZ, AK

Total: 286

Harris

Maine - 3, VT, MA, RI, CT, NY, NJ, DE, DC, VA, IL, WI, MI, MN, CO, NM, CA, NV, OR, WA, HI

Total: 252

I'm not sure of many things but Trump is not going to win NH.

[Invisible Man]

Whatever makes you feel good. Polls mean nothing it has already been decided for you. Harris will somehow magically pull out the victory and there is nothing you can do about it. You people on here really don't get it.

So, when you say you've done the math, you mean you made stuff up?

And what are you talking about "makes you feel good"? This isn't the Donald Trump forums.