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Thread: Pollster warns Trump surging in swing states

  1. #1

    Pollster warns Trump surging in swing states

    9/11 Thermate experiments

    Winston Churchhill on why the U.S. should have stayed OUT of World War I

    "I am so %^&*^ sick of this cult of Ron Paul. The Paulites. What is with these %^&*^ people? Why are there so many of them?" YouTube rant by "TheAmazingAtheist"

    "We as a country have lost faith and confidence in freedom." -- Ron Paul

    "It can be a challenge to follow the pronouncements of President Trump, as he often seems to change his position on any number of items from week to week, or from day to day, or even from minute to minute." -- Ron Paul
    Quote Originally Posted by Brian4Liberty View Post
    The road to hell is paved with good intentions. No need to make it a superhighway.
    Quote Originally Posted by osan View Post
    The only way I see Trump as likely to affect any real change would be through martial law, and that has zero chances of success without strong buy-in by the JCS at the very minimum.



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  3. #2
    I believe Trump will win the swing states and the election but lose the popular vote.

  4. #3
    Quote Originally Posted by 69360 View Post
    I believe Trump will win the swing states and the election but lose the popular vote.
    I believe we are not done with the mayhem and no one has any idea how this will turn out.

    The odds that we can go 2 months without some major calamity seems... low.
    "And now that the legislators and do-gooders have so futilely inflicted so many systems upon society, may they finally end where they should have begun: May they reject all systems, and try liberty; for liberty is an acknowledgment of faith in God and His works." - Bastiat

    "It is difficult to free fools from the chains they revere." - Voltaire

  5. #4
    Quote Originally Posted by CaptUSA View Post
    I believe we are not done with the mayhem and no one has any idea how this will turn out.

    The odds that we can go 2 months without some major calamity seems... low.
    I agree.

    I have no idea what the wild rumpus will be.

    But I Have no doubt there will be wild rumpus.
    “It is not true that all creeds and cultures are equally assimilable in a First World nation born of England, Christianity, and Western civilization. Race, faith, ethnicity and history leave genetic fingerprints no ‘proposition nation’ can erase." -- Pat Buchanan

    If America is only an idea, then there is no need for masses of immigrants to come here since they can just create the idea in their own countries. - Random Thought from the Interwebs.

  6. #5
    The chaos seems to be slowing. 4 days until the debate. I am working on the assumption that Harris still can't debate.

  7. #6
    Quote Originally Posted by 69360 View Post
    The chaos seems to be slowing. 4 days until the debate. I am working on the assumption that Harris still can't debate.
    What world are you living in?!! The chaos is slowing??! Yeah, what's been? A month and a 1/2 since THE COUP! Hell, the ASSASSINATION ATTEMPT was like 2 whole months ago, yawn!! Oh, and what about American hostages being killed? What about FB admitting to government pressure to censor? What about a KENNEDY dropping out after a fight with his family's party and endorsing the other guy?!

    I mean, if that's slow to you, you're moving way faster than I am.
    "And now that the legislators and do-gooders have so futilely inflicted so many systems upon society, may they finally end where they should have begun: May they reject all systems, and try liberty; for liberty is an acknowledgment of faith in God and His works." - Bastiat

    "It is difficult to free fools from the chains they revere." - Voltaire

  8. #7
    Quote Originally Posted by CaptUSA View Post
    What world are you living in?!! The chaos is slowing??! Yeah, what's been? A month and a 1/2 since THE COUP! Hell, the ASSASSINATION ATTEMPT was like 2 whole months ago, yawn!! Oh, and what about American hostages being killed? What about FB admitting to government pressure to censor? What about a KENNEDY dropping out after a fight with his family's party and endorsing the other guy?!

    I mean, if that's slow to you, you're moving way faster than I am.
    The attempt to kill Trump and Biden quitting were the only major events. I don't see anything else that big coming before the election.

    Who knows though?

  9. #8
    The Jobs Report got released and not a good look for the current admin.



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  11. #9
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankind…it’s people I can’t stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment

  12. #10
    I can't stand Nate Silver though.

    This is the same guy who had the same predictions as everyone else and then swaps it up in the last minute of the 2016 race and runs around telling everyone he was the least-wrong out of everyone.
    Quote Originally Posted by timosman View Post
    This is getting silly.
    Quote Originally Posted by Swordsmyth View Post
    It started silly.
    T.S. Eliot's The Hollow Men

    We Are Running Out of Time - Mini Me

    Quote Originally Posted by Philhelm
    I part ways with "libertarianism" when it transitions from ideology grounded in logic into self-defeating autism for the sake of ideological purity.

  13. #11
    Quote Originally Posted by CaptUSA View Post
    What world are you living in?!! The chaos is slowing??! Yeah, what's been? A month and a 1/2 since THE COUP! Hell, the ASSASSINATION ATTEMPT was like 2 whole months ago, yawn!! Oh, and what about American hostages being killed? What about FB admitting to government pressure to censor? What about a KENNEDY dropping out after a fight with his family's party and endorsing the other guy?!

    I mean, if that's slow to you, you're moving way faster than I am.
    I just found out that Israel has also killed Americans living in the West Bank. But of course that isn't being talked about. Here's the latest of an American protestor being shot dead by Israeli soldires in the West Bank.

    https://apnews.com/article/american-...a339240dbf036e
    9/11 Thermate experiments

    Winston Churchhill on why the U.S. should have stayed OUT of World War I

    "I am so %^&*^ sick of this cult of Ron Paul. The Paulites. What is with these %^&*^ people? Why are there so many of them?" YouTube rant by "TheAmazingAtheist"

    "We as a country have lost faith and confidence in freedom." -- Ron Paul

    "It can be a challenge to follow the pronouncements of President Trump, as he often seems to change his position on any number of items from week to week, or from day to day, or even from minute to minute." -- Ron Paul
    Quote Originally Posted by Brian4Liberty View Post
    The road to hell is paved with good intentions. No need to make it a superhighway.
    Quote Originally Posted by osan View Post
    The only way I see Trump as likely to affect any real change would be through martial law, and that has zero chances of success without strong buy-in by the JCS at the very minimum.

  14. #12
    Quote Originally Posted by nobody's_hero View Post
    I can't stand Nate Silver though.

    This is the same guy who had the same predictions as everyone else and then swaps it up in the last minute of the 2016 race and runs around telling everyone he was the least-wrong out of everyone.
    Politics is like the weather. The best you can hope for is a 5 day forecast. I didn't know Hillary was in trouble until election day when Barack Obama said "No matter what happens, the sun is going to come up tomorrow." I was like "What the hell?" Hillary had a $1 million victory clelebration planned with fireworks and everything.
    9/11 Thermate experiments

    Winston Churchhill on why the U.S. should have stayed OUT of World War I

    "I am so %^&*^ sick of this cult of Ron Paul. The Paulites. What is with these %^&*^ people? Why are there so many of them?" YouTube rant by "TheAmazingAtheist"

    "We as a country have lost faith and confidence in freedom." -- Ron Paul

    "It can be a challenge to follow the pronouncements of President Trump, as he often seems to change his position on any number of items from week to week, or from day to day, or even from minute to minute." -- Ron Paul
    Quote Originally Posted by Brian4Liberty View Post
    The road to hell is paved with good intentions. No need to make it a superhighway.
    Quote Originally Posted by osan View Post
    The only way I see Trump as likely to affect any real change would be through martial law, and that has zero chances of success without strong buy-in by the JCS at the very minimum.

  15. #13
    Quote Originally Posted by 69360 View Post
    The attempt to kill Trump and Biden quitting were the only major events. I don't see anything else that big coming before the election.

    Who knows though?
    Didn't we just recently have the biggest drop in the stock market since 2008?
    9/11 Thermate experiments

    Winston Churchhill on why the U.S. should have stayed OUT of World War I

    "I am so %^&*^ sick of this cult of Ron Paul. The Paulites. What is with these %^&*^ people? Why are there so many of them?" YouTube rant by "TheAmazingAtheist"

    "We as a country have lost faith and confidence in freedom." -- Ron Paul

    "It can be a challenge to follow the pronouncements of President Trump, as he often seems to change his position on any number of items from week to week, or from day to day, or even from minute to minute." -- Ron Paul
    Quote Originally Posted by Brian4Liberty View Post
    The road to hell is paved with good intentions. No need to make it a superhighway.
    Quote Originally Posted by osan View Post
    The only way I see Trump as likely to affect any real change would be through martial law, and that has zero chances of success without strong buy-in by the JCS at the very minimum.

  16. #14
    Quote Originally Posted by jmdrake View Post
    Politics is like the weather. The best you can hope for is a 5 day forecast. I didn't know Hillary was in trouble until election day when Barack Obama said "No matter what happens, the sun is going to come up tomorrow." I was like "What the hell?" Hillary had a $1 million victory clelebration planned with fireworks and everything.
    I think they hold their 'predictions' until the last minute. Polls are designed to influence public opinion.

    You can only promote something so blatantly false, for so long, before you realize you have to tell the truth, or it's your own credibility on the line.

    I'm not saying that's necessarily Nate's case. But I think for a lot of pollsters, it's what just happened with Harris. They were gonna make the Harris 'bump' into a wave before they realized 'well, sh*t. no one's buying it.'

    Just like Biden was totally fit for office until that evening when he suddenly wasn't.
    Quote Originally Posted by timosman View Post
    This is getting silly.
    Quote Originally Posted by Swordsmyth View Post
    It started silly.
    T.S. Eliot's The Hollow Men

    We Are Running Out of Time - Mini Me

    Quote Originally Posted by Philhelm
    I part ways with "libertarianism" when it transitions from ideology grounded in logic into self-defeating autism for the sake of ideological purity.

  17. #15
    Quote Originally Posted by nobody's_hero View Post
    I think they hold their 'predictions' until the last minute. Polls are designed to influence public opinion.

    You can only promote something so blatantly false, for so long, before you realize you have to tell the truth, or it's your own credibility on the line.

    I'm not saying that's necessarily Nate's case. But I think for a lot of pollsters, it's what just happened with Harris. They were gonna make the Harris 'bump' into a wave before they realized 'well, sh*t. no one's buying it.'

    Just like Biden was totally fit for office until that evening when he suddenly wasn't.
    Okay. But this poll is definitely not helping Harris. There is another reason people do polls and that is to have some indication of how things are going. It's helpful to campaigns to be able to make adjustments. And it's news worthy. I believe the polls showing Biden's numbers crashing due to his obvious mental decline were accurate. The democrats made an adjustment. I'm not surprised that Harris got a bump just for being the not so dark horse canidate. Whatever you say about Harris she's not in mental decline. What you see is as good as it gets.
    9/11 Thermate experiments

    Winston Churchhill on why the U.S. should have stayed OUT of World War I

    "I am so %^&*^ sick of this cult of Ron Paul. The Paulites. What is with these %^&*^ people? Why are there so many of them?" YouTube rant by "TheAmazingAtheist"

    "We as a country have lost faith and confidence in freedom." -- Ron Paul

    "It can be a challenge to follow the pronouncements of President Trump, as he often seems to change his position on any number of items from week to week, or from day to day, or even from minute to minute." -- Ron Paul
    Quote Originally Posted by Brian4Liberty View Post
    The road to hell is paved with good intentions. No need to make it a superhighway.
    Quote Originally Posted by osan View Post
    The only way I see Trump as likely to affect any real change would be through martial law, and that has zero chances of success without strong buy-in by the JCS at the very minimum.

  18. #16
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankind…it’s people I can’t stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment



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  20. #17
    Quote Originally Posted by jmdrake View Post
    Whatever you say about Harris she's not in mental decline.
    Have you ever heard her speak? Word salad.

    Now, it could be that she's trying just a bit too hard to sound intelligent.



    But, WTF?
    Quote Originally Posted by timosman View Post
    This is getting silly.
    Quote Originally Posted by Swordsmyth View Post
    It started silly.
    T.S. Eliot's The Hollow Men

    We Are Running Out of Time - Mini Me

    Quote Originally Posted by Philhelm
    I part ways with "libertarianism" when it transitions from ideology grounded in logic into self-defeating autism for the sake of ideological purity.

  21. #18
    Quote Originally Posted by jmdrake View Post
    Didn't we just recently have the biggest drop in the stock market since 2008?
    The average voter didn't notice or care.

  22. #19
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankind…it’s people I can’t stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment

  23. #20
    Quote Originally Posted by jmdrake View Post
    Didn't we just recently have the biggest drop in the stock market since 2008?
    DJIA is still up roughly 6,000 over where it was a year ago and roughly 3,000 above where it was at the start of 2024. The drop during Covid in 2020 was much more precipitous.
    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=sGzL

  24. #21
    Quote Originally Posted by jmdrake View Post
    Didn't we just recently have the biggest drop in the stock market since 2008?
    Could be more of it next couple monts . Cristmas is only ting saving economy now
    Do something Danke

  25. #22
    Surging?

    If this doesn't make Reagan v Mondale look like a close race, then this country is lost, and it's time to look for / make another.
    WHAT THE F*** DID YOU THINK​ WAS GOING TO HAPPEN???

  26. #23
    Quote Originally Posted by fisharmor View Post
    Surging?

    If this doesn't make Reagan v Mondale look like a close race, then this country is lost, and it's time to look for / make another.
    The USA of 1984 is dead and long gone.
    “It is not true that all creeds and cultures are equally assimilable in a First World nation born of England, Christianity, and Western civilization. Race, faith, ethnicity and history leave genetic fingerprints no ‘proposition nation’ can erase." -- Pat Buchanan

    If America is only an idea, then there is no need for masses of immigrants to come here since they can just create the idea in their own countries. - Random Thought from the Interwebs.

  27. #24
    Quote Originally Posted by fisharmor View Post
    Surging?

    If this doesn't make Reagan v Mondale look like a close race, then this country is lost, and it's time to look for / make another.
    The economy isn't looking good for the current admin..



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  29. #25
    I see Trump winning NC but he's probably going to lose AZ,PA,WI.MI, and GA.
    "Perhaps one of the most important accomplishments of my administration is minding my own business."

    Calvin Coolidge

  30. #26
    Quote Originally Posted by Anti Globalist View Post
    I see Trump winning NC but he's probably going to lose AZ,PA,WI.MI, and GA.
    LOL
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankind…it’s people I can’t stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment

  31. #27
    Quote Originally Posted by Anti Globalist View Post
    I see Trump winning NC but he's probably going to lose AZ,PA,WI.MI, and GA.
    You are right about WI and possibly MI but wrong about the rest.

    RCP currently has Trump winning the EC 281 to 257

  32. #28
    Quote Originally Posted by 69360 View Post
    You are right about WI and possibly MI but wrong about the rest.
    They'll steal Arizona. Again. I doubt they'll be any more subtle about it than they were before. That's probably where the shooting will start.

  33. #29
    Quote Originally Posted by Swordsmyth View Post
    LOL
    You laugh, but Trump should be up by 30 points in every swing state. The economy is in ruins, foreign policy is a disaster, invaders are flooding our borders, they tried to kill Trump and couped Biden, the dollar has never been more in jeopardy, and Kamala is an obvious puppet of the machine. And yet, it's still close. Because Trump SUCKS!

    Look, I want him to win, but damn he SUCKS!
    "And now that the legislators and do-gooders have so futilely inflicted so many systems upon society, may they finally end where they should have begun: May they reject all systems, and try liberty; for liberty is an acknowledgment of faith in God and His works." - Bastiat

    "It is difficult to free fools from the chains they revere." - Voltaire

  34. #30
    Quote Originally Posted by 69360 View Post
    The chaos seems to be slowing. 4 days until the debate. I am working on the assumption that Harris still can't debate.
    That's true. She can't. And I don't think she's worried about that. She expects to win the same way Biden did, by pure anti-Trump sentiment. And she definitely has some foresight and plans about ways to buoy that anti-Trump sentiment in October that are not yet known to the public. She is only debating to get this formality out of the way ASAP.
    There is nothing to fear from globalism, free trade and a single worldwide currency, but a globalism where free trade is competitively subsidized by each nation, a continuous trade war is dictated by the WTO, and the single currency is pure fiat, fear is justified. That type of globalism is destined to collapse into economic despair, inflationism and protectionism and managed by resurgent militant nationalism.
    Ron Paul
    Congressional Record (March 13, 2001)

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