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Thread: Prediction: Biden/Dem will win re-election easily when both int'l crises cool off.

  1. #1

    Prediction: Biden/Dem will win re-election easily when both int'l crises cool off.

    Things are in a state of flux right now in both theatres. It's a crossroads for both. There is more opportunity for a cessation/freeze of hostilities in Israel than there has been since October, and the same goes for Ukraine. Here's my brief thoughts about the current situations.*

    Israel/Palestine: The Biden Adm is not only putting heavy pressure on Israel to bite on the peace deal, with its three main points, including the exchange of all Israeli hostages and many Palestinian, a real ceasefire with a road to peace that goes beyond 6 weeks, if Israel is interested in that, and a rebuilding and repopulation of Gaza by Palestinians, according to a timeline at Israel's discretion with allowances for Israel's security needs and a chance for Israeli participation and global Jewish financiers and developers (international bankers) who will assist. Biden has outlined the 3-point plan, so you can easily look it up. Members of the Knesset and government agencies are actively trying to oust Netanyahu since he doesn't appear willing to work on this plan. Yair Lapid is among the most vocal, but he's also going to support Netanyahu IF Netanyahu agrees to begin working on hostage exchanges and peace talks. If not, Lapid is going to try and oust Netanyahu, which may happen. Macron backs the plan as does every major player, although the UK is in a transition stage so Rishi Sunak isn't really operating as a true PM any longer. Macron and Scholz have gone as far as to say, along with others, that the ICJ could be allowed to arrest Netanyahu and Gallant if either is in their countries. This is increasing domestic pressure against Netanyahu. Disregarding the Biden plan, Netanyahu today is still saying there can be no peace until Hamas is destroyed. Lapid totally disagrees, and has called for Smotrich (Minister of Finance) and Ben-Gvir (Minister of National Security), the two most powerful ultra-right influencers of Netanyahu (he is only PM because he formed a coalition gov with them) to leave the government. Also, there are persistent mini-battles with Hezbollah, and that's a situation Netanyahu may attempt to exploit, but unlike in months past, it's not seen as a real opportunity for him to remain in power. So, because of internal pressures and the opposition of the US, Netanyahu may not be able to launch a major offensive against Rafah. Still, he could cling to power until a bitter end, which may even involve a forcible coup to take place against him. Alternatively, if Ben-Gvir and Smotrich are tossed out by Netanyahu, he will be able to form a new coalition with the centrists and left, enough to remain PM, make a joint-session speech in the US Congress, etc. This is not a hard choice for him to make. He knows the limits of his power are increasing and that we're well past the point where he can dictate anything without center-left and American backing.*

    Russia/Ukraine: Zelensky doesn't want peace in any attainable sense, and his summit (funded by US) this weekend will, of course, end in failure, because it's goals are not peace, but more war. He is not expected to remain in office much longer, but Biden has no interest in escalation in Ukraine right now, or Israel, or anywhere, as the election heats up with its demands on fundraising and electability, and even on security for the DNC convention. He has a debate with Trump scheduled later this month. Biden is eschewing the summit in favor of fundraising, which is a clear sign of a de-escalation preference by Biden and top Democrats. Putin has suggested Russia's openness to peace talks. Without the pushing of the US and the UK for escalation in Ukraine, neither Macron or anyone else is going to fill this gap. Macron doesn't even have the support of the French population or most of his own forces, who have no interest in Ukraine. The Baltics are a joke. Still, this doesn't mean that contractors won't stop assisting Ukraine in attacks, or that low-cost, measured risk operations against Russia won't take place, or that the hardliners in Ukraine of any nationality aren't working on more provocations that are highly escalatory in nature.*

    Unfortunately, until Netanyahu and Zelensky are willing to bend, there can be no peace, but it's becoming clearer that they can be forced to bend, or they will be replaced. The opportunity and level of support for peace has never been higher than in the present.

    If I had to wager a guess right now, I'd say Netanyahu chooses to remain, which means he can go ahead and alienate the hard-right, but replace their political support with new centrist/left backing, and remain in office.

    Although chances are lower for impending peace in Ukraine, that is likely to change also in the coming weeks. The Summer Olympics in Paris, the US elections, the UK elections, increasing discontent in Ukraine, realities on the battlefield - these are going to contribute to a softening on postures that will be difficult to reverse course on. This is what Putin is hoping for, rather than wage a costly and bloody full occupation war against the remaining 80% of Ukraine. Most likely, he wil be able to avoid that. There could be isolated challenges, but the trend is towards resolution.

    I expect that the cooling-off of both this summer will elevate Biden's favorability in the polls, and then he (or another Democrat) will coast to an easier-than-expected re-election in November.
    "When Sombart says: "Capitalism is born from the money-loan", I should like to add to this: Capitalism actually exists only in the money-loan;" - Theodor Fritsch



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  3. #2
    I dont foresee such cooling off.

    Considering what the Biden admin is now doing in the Balkans trying to start another conflict there.

    As for Ukraine. Ukraine is running into a major problem.
    They are running out of soldiers

    Even if they mobilize most of the younger population that still wont be enough to give Russia a strategic defeat on the battflied in their own backyard..

    I wonder how many soldiers are actually willing to fight for the current Europe? that is pushing degenerate polices and agendas?


    Ukraine urgently needs soldiers, but some men are desperate not to fight

  4. #3
    It's a sad thing to say, but American elections are in no way driven by international relations any more unless somebody's actively and effectively shooting at us.

    The Democrats gespatchoed themselves, seemingly on purpose. They won't win. They have so made lame ducks of themselves that I hope there's some deep state adults in charge of the nuclear codes, because at least they won't screw the world out of pure partisan spite.

    As Bill Clinton told Papa Bush in '92, "It's the economy, stupid."

  5. #4
    It is my understanding that we are financially doomed.

    War, death, chaos, and mass destruction of our country is an easy way for the neocons and neolibs to stay in power and further consolidate their wealth and control.

    Samey-same if the Trump is somehow elected.

  6. #5

  7. #6
    Biden said the first phase of the proposed deal would would last for six weeks and would include a “full and complete cease-fire,” a withdrawal of Israeli forces from all populated areas of Gaza and the release of a number of hostages, including women, the elderly and the wounded, in exchange for the release of hundreds of Palestinian prisoners.

    American hostages would be released at this stage, and remains of hostages who have been killed would be returned to their families. Humanitarian assistance would surge during the first phase, with 600 trucks being allowed into Gaza each day.

    The second phase would include the release of all remaining living hostages, including male soldiers, and Israeli forces would withdraw from Gaza.

    The third phase calls for the start of a major reconstruction of Gaza, which faces decades of rebuilding from devastation caused by the war.

    But Biden acknowledged that keeping the deal on track would be difficult, saying there are a number of “details to negotiate” to move from the first phase to the second.


    Oh, yeah, those pesky details. This plan or something very similar has been proposed before and Israel has flat out said no. Even Israeli moderates don't want to leave Hamas intact have their perceived gains be for nothing. Hamas said yes then changed the terms to only returning dead bodies. I don't see this going anywhere. Then, who's going to pay for the clean up and rebuilding? Israel sure as hell won't. Banksters won't. Gulf States have said they won't. Egypt can't afford it. Oh, I guess that leaves American taxpayers with .001% kicked in by the EU.

    As for Ukraine, are the west and Ukraine suddenly going to be good with the fact that Crimea is Russia and, now, so is Donbass? The US speaks with a forked tongue and finds ways to keep sending money and/or weapons. Now, several European countries have all committed to sending billions plus more weapons and have given the green light to use them inside of Russia. I'm sure Russia would agree to ending the war AND keeping all of their territorial gains but you know the west wouldn't.
    'Here......Once again, we have gathered in the depths of a small Cotswold town called Stow-On-the Wold, among the town and country folk, we can witness the lesser spotted Karens, going about other peoples business, in their natural habitat'.......

    -In the voice of Sir David Attenborough

  8. #7
    ..
    'Here......Once again, we have gathered in the depths of a small Cotswold town called Stow-On-the Wold, among the town and country folk, we can witness the lesser spotted Karens, going about other peoples business, in their natural habitat'.......

    -In the voice of Sir David Attenborough

  9. #8
    Biden will lose dramatically before cheating, he will lose so badly he may not win with cheating.
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankindÖitís people I canít stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment



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  11. #9
    Quote Originally Posted by Swordsmyth View Post
    Biden will lose dramatically before cheating, he will lose so badly he may not win with cheating.
    Yeah, man. That's the plan.

    Just don't let them lead you by the nose to the goofy conclusion that Trump's worth giving up the Constitution for. No matter how much of the faith that you know you should be investing in the Lord you entrust Trump with instead, you can't believe he'll live forever.

  12. #10
    it will happen like magic pixie dust. i know the dillio (as they say in New Jersey)

    "When Sombart says: "Capitalism is born from the money-loan", I should like to add to this: Capitalism actually exists only in the money-loan;" - Theodor Fritsch

  13. #11
    Cant really believe any international items are expected to improve. I also doubt most voters care about it w/ exception of a few conservatives , amall percentage opposed to foriegn aid, we know marxists and Bolshevik's dont.
    Last edited by oyarde; 06-04-2024 at 07:02 AM.
    Do something Danke

  14. #12
    They'll also win reelection when they successfully pin the medical fallout from the Covid vaccines on Trump while Biden will get off scot free under the premise that he was duped and conned into believing the vaccines were safe the entire time.
    "Perhaps one of the most important accomplishments of my administration is minding my own business."

    Calvin Coolidge

  15. #13




    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankindÖitís people I canít stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment

  16. #14
    Quote Originally Posted by Snowball View Post
    Things are in a state of flux right now in both theatres. It's a crossroads for both. There is more opportunity for a cessation/freeze of hostilities in Israel than there has been since October, and the same goes for Ukraine. Here's my brief thoughts about the current situations.*

    Israel/Palestine: The Biden Adm is not only putting heavy pressure on Israel to bite on the peace deal, with its three main points, including the exchange of all Israeli hostages and many Palestinian, a real ceasefire with a road to peace that goes beyond 6 weeks, if Israel is interested in that, and a rebuilding and repopulation of Gaza by Palestinians, according to a timeline at Israel's discretion with allowances for Israel's security needs and a chance for Israeli participation and global Jewish financiers and developers (international bankers) who will assist. Biden has outlined the 3-point plan, so you can easily look it up. Members of the Knesset and government agencies are actively trying to oust Netanyahu since he doesn't appear willing to work on this plan. Yair Lapid is among the most vocal, but he's also going to support Netanyahu IF Netanyahu agrees to begin working on hostage exchanges and peace talks. If not, Lapid is going to try and oust Netanyahu, which may happen. Macron backs the plan as does every major player, although the UK is in a transition stage so Rishi Sunak isn't really operating as a true PM any longer. Macron and Scholz have gone as far as to say, along with others, that the ICJ could be allowed to arrest Netanyahu and Gallant if either is in their countries. This is increasing domestic pressure against Netanyahu. Disregarding the Biden plan, Netanyahu today is still saying there can be no peace until Hamas is destroyed. Lapid totally disagrees, and has called for Smotrich (Minister of Finance) and Ben-Gvir (Minister of National Security), the two most powerful ultra-right influencers of Netanyahu (he is only PM because he formed a coalition gov with them) to leave the government. Also, there are persistent mini-battles with Hezbollah, and that's a situation Netanyahu may attempt to exploit, but unlike in months past, it's not seen as a real opportunity for him to remain in power. So, because of internal pressures and the opposition of the US, Netanyahu may not be able to launch a major offensive against Rafah. Still, he could cling to power until a bitter end, which may even involve a forcible coup to take place against him. Alternatively, if Ben-Gvir and Smotrich are tossed out by Netanyahu, he will be able to form a new coalition with the centrists and left, enough to remain PM, make a joint-session speech in the US Congress, etc. This is not a hard choice for him to make. He knows the limits of his power are increasing and that we're well past the point where he can dictate anything without center-left and American backing.*

    Russia/Ukraine: Zelensky doesn't want peace in any attainable sense, and his summit (funded by US) this weekend will, of course, end in failure, because it's goals are not peace, but more war. He is not expected to remain in office much longer, but Biden has no interest in escalation in Ukraine right now, or Israel, or anywhere, as the election heats up with its demands on fundraising and electability, and even on security for the DNC convention. He has a debate with Trump scheduled later this month. Biden is eschewing the summit in favor of fundraising, which is a clear sign of a de-escalation preference by Biden and top Democrats. Putin has suggested Russia's openness to peace talks. Without the pushing of the US and the UK for escalation in Ukraine, neither Macron or anyone else is going to fill this gap. Macron doesn't even have the support of the French population or most of his own forces, who have no interest in Ukraine. The Baltics are a joke. Still, this doesn't mean that contractors won't stop assisting Ukraine in attacks, or that low-cost, measured risk operations against Russia won't take place, or that the hardliners in Ukraine of any nationality aren't working on more provocations that are highly escalatory in nature.*

    Unfortunately, until Netanyahu and Zelensky are willing to bend, there can be no peace, but it's becoming clearer that they can be forced to bend, or they will be replaced. The opportunity and level of support for peace has never been higher than in the present.

    If I had to wager a guess right now, I'd say Netanyahu chooses to remain, which means he can go ahead and alienate the hard-right, but replace their political support with new centrist/left backing, and remain in office.

    Although chances are lower for impending peace in Ukraine, that is likely to change also in the coming weeks. The Summer Olympics in Paris, the US elections, the UK elections, increasing discontent in Ukraine, realities on the battlefield - these are going to contribute to a softening on postures that will be difficult to reverse course on. This is what Putin is hoping for, rather than wage a costly and bloody full occupation war against the remaining 80% of Ukraine. Most likely, he wil be able to avoid that. There could be isolated challenges, but the trend is towards resolution.

    I expect that the cooling-off of both this summer will elevate Biden's favorability in the polls, and then he (or another Democrat) will coast to an easier-than-expected re-election in November.
    Quote Originally Posted by susano View Post
    Biden said the first phase of the proposed deal would would last for six weeks and would include a “full and complete cease-fire,” a withdrawal of Israeli forces from all populated areas of Gaza and the release of a number of hostages, including women, the elderly and the wounded, in exchange for the release of hundreds of Palestinian prisoners.

    American hostages would be released at this stage, and remains of hostages who have been killed would be returned to their families. Humanitarian assistance would surge during the first phase, with 600 trucks being allowed into Gaza each day.

    The second phase would include the release of all remaining living hostages, including male soldiers, and Israeli forces would withdraw from Gaza.

    The third phase calls for the start of a major reconstruction of Gaza, which faces decades of rebuilding from devastation caused by the war.

    But Biden acknowledged that keeping the deal on track would be difficult, saying there are a number of “details to negotiate” to move from the first phase to the second.


    Oh, yeah, those pesky details. This plan or something very similar has been proposed before and Israel has flat out said no. Even Israeli moderates don't want to leave Hamas intact have their perceived gains be for nothing. Hamas said yes then changed the terms to only returning dead bodies. I don't see this going anywhere. Then, who's going to pay for the clean up and rebuilding? Israel sure as hell won't. Banksters won't. Gulf States have said they won't. Egypt can't afford it. Oh, I guess that leaves American taxpayers with .001% kicked in by the EU.

    As for Ukraine, are the west and Ukraine suddenly going to be good with the fact that Crimea is Russia and, now, so is Donbass? The US speaks with a forked tongue and finds ways to keep sending money and/or weapons. Now, several European countries have all committed to sending billions plus more weapons and have given the green light to use them inside of Russia. I'm sure Russia would agree to ending the war AND keeping all of their territorial gains but you know the west wouldn't.
    You are of course correct. Hamas can't commit to the Israeli demand of releasing all of the hostages because that's their only bargaining chip. And Israel won't stand for allowing Hamas to survive. Considering that Netanyahu backed Hamas in the past he can't allow them to survive. Biden put forward a plan that Hamas already rejected without any incentive for Hamas to now accept it. What could move the ball forward is a temporary cease fire in exchange for proof of life of the remaining hostages and a release of all of the dead bodies and a significant number of live hostages. A permanent cease fire? Maybe safe passage for Hamas out of the entire territory? They can join up with Hezbollah in the West Bank or Lebanon?

    As for Ukraine, that's starting to become an embarrassment for the U.S. military industrial complex. The Ukrainians are complaining that the M1 Abrams tanks are crap and that the electronics in them short out from condensation. The U.S. response? "We told you our girls are high maintenance." It turns out that a $30,000 Russian Lancet drone can do to an American M1 Abrams or British Challenger tank what a $240,000 Javelin missile can do to a Russian T72 tank. Tanks on a near peer battlefield are just targets. The F16s are of little effect in a theatre with S400s just like MIG 31s aren't much in a theatre with Patrion missile batteries. Neither side is pulling out its stealth fighters because A) that would give the enemy a chance to tune their radar and B) it would be embarrassing for either side to lose (another in the case of the U.S.) stealth plane to an enemy missile.

    So here's my take. The Israel / Gaza war doesn't end before November. It would be great for Biden if it did, but it won't. And if the Ukraine war ends it will be a worse political disaster for Biden than the botched Afghanistan pullout. They've spent too much political capital trying to convince everyone that the side with the neo Nazi brigade is actually the one fighting the "new Hitler." And Biden would strengthen the hands of those who were trying to stop the military aid to Ukraine because they'll be able to say "Why did we spend this money again?"
    9/11 Thermate experiments

    Winston Churchhill on why the U.S. should have stayed OUT of World War I

    "I am so %^&*^ sick of this cult of Ron Paul. The Paulites. What is with these %^&*^ people? Why are there so many of them?" YouTube rant by "TheAmazingAtheist"

    "We as a country have lost faith and confidence in freedom." -- Ron Paul

    "It can be a challenge to follow the pronouncements of President Trump, as he often seems to change his position on any number of items from week to week, or from day to day, or even from minute to minute." -- Ron Paul
    Quote Originally Posted by Brian4Liberty View Post
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    The only way I see Trump as likely to affect any real change would be through martial law, and that has zero chances of success without strong buy-in by the JCS at the very minimum.

  17. #15
    The Ukrainian peace summit is nothing but a joke.
    They are still rolling the nonsense "Russia must return the territories from the 1991 agreement to Ukraine"

    The NeoCons are like bunch of androids with brains reprogrammed to the past..

  18. #16
    Nobody cares about Biden, not even his own handlers. He's totally disposable. Any child can see how slim the odds are that he will still be alive in three years under any circumstances. That's how far his brain rot has advanced.

    If they steal this election for him too (and in an incredibly obvious fashion again), all it means is they want more riots. We are, after all, talking about the people who were strategically positioning whole pallets of bricks on inner city street corners four years ago.

    People refuse to foresee things like this because the evil is inconceivable to them. The mind rejects. But consider how that very human tendency enabled them to make the Jab Psyop a resounding success.



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  20. #17
    Quote Originally Posted by jmdrake View Post
    You are of course correct. Hamas can't commit to the Israeli demand of releasing all of the hostages because that's their only bargaining chip. And Israel won't stand for allowing Hamas to survive. Considering that Netanyahu backed Hamas in the past he can't allow them to survive. Biden put forward a plan that Hamas already rejected without any incentive for Hamas to now accept it. What could move the ball forward is a temporary cease fire in exchange for proof of life of the remaining hostages and a release of all of the dead bodies and a significant number of live hostages. A permanent cease fire? Maybe safe passage for Hamas out of the entire territory? They can join up with Hezbollah in the West Bank or Lebanon?

    As for Ukraine, that's starting to become an embarrassment for the U.S. military industrial complex. The Ukrainians are complaining that the M1 Abrams tanks are crap and that the electronics in them short out from condensation. The U.S. response? "We told you our girls are high maintenance." It turns out that a $30,000 Russian Lancet drone can do to an American M1 Abrams or British Challenger tank what a $240,000 Javelin missile can do to a Russian T72 tank. Tanks on a near peer battlefield are just targets. The F16s are of little effect in a theatre with S400s just like MIG 31s aren't much in a theatre with Patrion missile batteries. Neither side is pulling out its stealth fighters because A) that would give the enemy a chance to tune their radar and B) it would be embarrassing for either side to lose (another in the case of the U.S.) stealth plane to an enemy missile.

    So here's my take. The Israel / Gaza war doesn't end before November. It would be great for Biden if it did, but it won't. And if the Ukraine war ends it will be a worse political disaster for Biden than the botched Afghanistan pullout. They've spent too much political capital trying to convince everyone that the side with the neo Nazi brigade is actually the one fighting the "new Hitler." And Biden would strengthen the hands of those who were trying to stop the military aid to Ukraine because they'll be able to say "Why did we spend this money again?"
    I don't think Hezbollah wants any Hamas people in Lebanon. The former is Shia and the latter is Sunni and affiliated with the Muslim Brotherhood. Any alliance, in the present, is my enemy's enemy convenience.

    I saw on the news, today, that Hezbollah fired a bunch of rockets at norther Israel and it started wildfires. Really beautiful country (geography) around there. So terribly sad. I don't know how any of he parties comes out of this with any kind of a win. I'm generally anti Israel (but also anti Islam) and even I'm beginning to feel sorry for them. All of those people with loved ones being held hostage and no end in sight. Of course, Gaza, goes without saying - atrocity. I think from Turkey around to the northern coast of Africa is probably one of the beautiful spots on the entire planet and it's all a disaster.

    The Daily Mail had an article about several European countries planning out corridors for NATO to move into Ukraine if Russia attacks them. I don't believe Russia would ever do that but it's a concern that these war mongering $#@!ers will do something to provoke it. You'd think that Europe, having been ground zero in two world wars, would not want to do this again. I guess it's a case of how a couple of generations after something huge, people "forget". FFS, don't they watch war documentaries? It astounds me how chomping at the bit they are.
    'Here......Once again, we have gathered in the depths of a small Cotswold town called Stow-On-the Wold, among the town and country folk, we can witness the lesser spotted Karens, going about other peoples business, in their natural habitat'.......

    -In the voice of Sir David Attenborough



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