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Thread: PROPAGANDA: Jobless numbers released by government are statistically impossible

  1. #1

    PROPAGANDA: Jobless numbers released by government are statistically impossible

    https://www.naturalnews.com/2024-04-...mpossible.html



    Initial claims for jobless benefits are one of the statistics that can be used to get a picture of the overall state of employment in the U.S., and, by extension, the American economy. However, the numbers the government has been giving us lately are raising a lot of eyebrows – and some experts even say they are statistically impossible.
    You don’t need to be a mathematician to suspect something is amiss when the government reports that initial claims for jobless benefits were exactly the same for five out of the last six weeks. This cannot be a coincidence.

    The figures were 212,000 for five out of the six weeks that have passed since mid-March, with the only exception being the week of Easter. In a $28 trillion economy with 160 million workers, a lot of things would have to line up perfectly to get the exact same number so many times.

    As Jim Bianco of Bianco Research points out: “Initial claims for unemployment insurance are state programs, with 50 state rules, hundreds of offices and 50 websites to file. Weather, seasonality, holidays and economic vibrations drive the number of people filing claims from week to week. Yet this measure is so stable that it does not vary by even 1,000 applications a week.”

    He added that the volume of applications that are filled out incorrectly each week alone should lead to more variation than what we are seeing.

    In fact, it is so hard to swallow that even CNBC felt the need to point it out. In a piece with the headline “Something strange has been happening with jobless numbers lately,” Jeff Cox writes: “Calling the state of the U.S. jobs market these days stable seems like an understatement considering the latest data coming out of the Labor Department. That’s because most of the past several weeks have shown that first-time claims for unemployment benefits haven’t fluctuated at all — as in zero.”

    Many people have speculated that the numbers are being outright invented, perhaps to make the economy look better than it is as Joe Biden tries to get reelected, while others say that looking at each state’s individual data may show some variation. A spokesperson for the Labor Department insists that it may be uncommon but is not impossible, saying that the streak “can be reasonably interpreted as an indication that there has been very little volatility in initial claims over this period relative to historical patterns, and that the seasonal adjustment factors are effectively removing seasonality from the aggregate figures reported by states.”

    The idea that the numbers are being cooked is very unsettling when you consider the fact that Federal Reserve officials look at these numbers in their wider assessment of the American labor market at large

    How are the numbers staying the same with so many mass layoffs?

    Besides being a statistical impossibility, the idea of the numbers remaining unchanged does not seem believable given that they come against the backdrop of mass layoffs at businesses throughout the nation. In March, the number of announced job cuts in the country was a full seven percent higher than the already-high levels seen in February. The executive coaching firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas noted that 90,309 job cuts were announced in March, which was the highest monthly total since last January, when 102,943 job cuts were seen.

    How it is possible that such a huge volume of layoffs isn’t impacting initial jobless claims numbers? Everyone who is paying attention to this is having a hard time believing it, and this is only going to make the public even more skeptical of government figures moving forward.
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  3. #2
    job numbers have been complete bunk since beginning of this administration. By looking at median income 2000 to 2023 and median new home price you may also come to believe inflation numbers during that time are also incorrect ( low) as homes run on avg around 6.67 percent per yr higher. Since that is a known factor it also stands to reason inflation on everything else was not the much lower numbers being reported.Price of bacon per lb probably averaging 4 percent yr during past four administrations. Avg those two and inflation is 5 or 6 percent per yr or three times avg GDP from 2000 - 2023 ( 1.9 and falling , last qtr 1.6 , three month core CPI 4.4 percent ), Debt though up 500 percent or so. My guess is the FRN has one or two decades left before complete failure. Things will move faster now , past 2 1/2 decades were the good times.
    Last edited by oyarde; 05-01-2024 at 12:19 PM.
    Do something Danke

  4. #3
    Quote Originally Posted by oyarde View Post
    job numbers have been complete bunk since beginning of this administration. By looking at median income 2000 to 2023 and median new home price you may also come to believe inflation numbers during that time are also incorrect ( low) as homes run on avg around 6.67 percent per yr higher. Since that is a known factor it also stands to reason inflation on everything else was not the much lower numbers being reported.Price of bacon per lb probably averaging 4 percent yr during past four administrations. Avg those two and inflation is 5 or 6 percent per yr or three times avg GDP from 2000 - 2023 ( 1.9 and falling , last qtr 1.6 ), Debt though up 500 percent or so. My guess is the FRN has one or two decades left before complete failure. Things will move faster now , past 2 1/2 decades were the good times.
    Only since the beginning of this administration?

  5. #4
    [QUOTE=Madison320;7227917]Only since the beginning of this administration?[/QUOTi I havnt pd much attention to them , I normally look at work force participation. In Feb that was 62.5 percent . Keep in mind I find that dismal , along with our GDP . If in fact 6 in ten Americans are working , it can only lead to failure . Only 2 of every 6 workers are paying in more tax than they are consuming. So 2 in ten Americans are not enough to generate enough tax revenue ( approx 4.71 trillion for fy 2023 with spending to exceed 6.2 to 7.9 trillion) in order to slow down adding to debt with continued snowball downhill effect. We havnt even added this years costs of uncontrolled migration at southern border , slush funds for ukraine , israel , other foreign aid etc
    Last edited by oyarde; 05-01-2024 at 11:35 AM.
    Do something Danke

  6. #5
    [QUOTE=oyarde;7227922]
    Quote Originally Posted by Madison320 View Post
    Only since the beginning of this administration?[/QUOTi I havnt pd much attention to them , I normally look at work force participation. In Feb that was 62.5 percent . Keep in mind I find that dismal , along with our GDP . If in fact 6 in ten Americans are working , it can only lead to failure . Only 2 of every 6 workers are paying in more tax than they are consuming. So 2 in ten Americans are not enough to generate enough tax revenue ( approx 4.71 trillion for fy 2023 with spending to exceed 6.2 to 7.9 trillion) in order to slow down adding to debt with continued snowball downhill effect. We havnt even added this years costs of uncontrolled migration at southern border , slush funds for ukraine , israel , other foreign aid etc
    I think they've been fudging those numbers forever. They've probably ramped it up to make Biden look good for the election. I like to look at hard numbers like the debt. If the economy was so great we'd be paying down the debt, instead we're borrowing trillions a year. The federal govt could give everybody a fake job and employment would be 0% but we'd have to borrow 10 trillion a year.



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